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The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please)

 
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The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 6:08:17 AM   
Tarhunnas


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This is an AAR with Michael T taking command of the invading hordes and me in command of the Workers and Pissants Red Army.

* GC41-45 alternate VP260
* Always use latest beta
* Non-random weather
* Locked support
* Full FOW

House rules:
* Max 3 airbase attacks per airbase/turn after the first turn.
* No HQ bombings.
* No Soviet landings west of the Crimea before 43 unless Sevastopol is Soviet held.
* Reserves limited to three units per HQ, of which only two may be divisions or corps.
* No Soviet runaways in 1941, Germans continue to attack up to blizzard and no German runaway in blizzard.
* No quitting just because things are going badly.





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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 6:12:44 AM   
Tarhunnas


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Turn 1.

A truly excellent opening by my opponent. The Lvov pocket, the Kovel pocket and the usual assorted other pockets as well. About the only thing he doesn't do is take Riga and cross the Dvina. Really one of the best German first moves I have seen!

And none of the pockets look easily breakable, no sloppiness at all that I can see at first glance. This will be tough!




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 11:25:08 AM   
Tarhunnas


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After Soviet moves. He didn't leave me much to work with. It was all I could do to scrabble together a half decent checkerboard in the center and south. It was worst in the center, I had to rail in a lot of units here to even get a checkerboard together. In the north I have the Dvina line which will hopefully buy me a turn. Here is the north and center.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 11:25:49 AM   
Tarhunnas


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The south after Soviet moves.




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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 11:37:30 AM   
juret

 

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this will be a good game to follow. no retreating rules ....

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 1:16:24 PM   
gids

 

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thing is michael does like prob 20 times his opening move in singleplayer till its perfected :p nothing forbids that but it smells i think,but it will be special to see tarhunnas against michael with all his tricks and "special" stuff i call it to be nice :)

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 1:47:26 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
* No Soviet runaways in 1941, Germans continue to attack up to blizzard and no German runaway in blizzard.


quote:

ORIGINAL: juret
this will be a good game to follow. no retreating rules ....


The *only* problem is that the first who must stubbornly stay and then be mauled is the Soviet side... So perhaps the Germans will have little to fear during the winter, therefore he can easily avoid a runaway during the blizzard...

SW Front annihilated. Will you stay where you are, Tarhunnas (no runaway)? Good luck...

Perhaps I am wrong but as long as the pace of operations is irrational and you have mere ants a stubborn defence makes no sense at all. Only one side wins: the Germans... Michael is such a fox...

Anyway we will see, as this game might answer some of these questions

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 5/20/2012 1:48:14 PM >


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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 1:48:11 PM   
timmyab

 

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Well, nobody can accuse you of running away here, but I think we may be about to see why a certain amount of running is vital for the Soviets when facing a strong opponent.
In the North, even though he hasn't crossed the Dvina (?), I think there should be some strength holding the river line that runs South from Pskov.The bit from the town of Ostrov North is particularly important.If you can occupy the forts to the South of Ostrov as well, then so much the better.
In the center I usually put a strong picket along the Berezina and fill in behind with a checkerboard.There are also a couple of strategically vital hexes behind the Dnieper that need to be occupied by something to stop any chance of them getting across on turn two, even a sec regiment could be enough to prevent a crossing.
In the South, I think he'll breakthrough in strength between Zhitomir and Vinnitsa.
Good luck.I'll be following this one.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 2:32:25 PM   
DrewBlack


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Hi

This ones going to be real interesting, one question can you tell me what version of the beta you are using im surprised by his ability to use reg. movement to create pockets as the newest version was supposed to help/control this?

Drew 

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 3:00:36 PM   
Zonso

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DrewBlack

Hi

This ones going to be real interesting, one question can you tell me what version of the beta you are using im surprised by his ability to use reg. movement to create pockets as the newest version was supposed to help/control this?

Drew 


It does considerably. However, it doesn't mean you cannot break down to regiments and use them separately if you have the MPs. Take a look at the extended Lvov opening to see how much this opening has been scaled back.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 3:34:45 PM   
Flaviusx


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It's not so much that running is necessary. It's that in the south with a good Lvov opening there's just not enough Red Army left to do anything more than merely delay. I will be amazed if Tarhunnas can prevent a Dnepr crossing past turn 6.

The weak northern opening however surprises me.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 4:52:25 PM   
Klydon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The weak northern opening however surprises me.


+1

Not only is Riga still around, but no panzer units across the river. He may not have big plans on Leningrad, but there is still a strategic gain to stretch the Russians as much as possible and also to threaten as much as possible.

I would be curious on his reasoning with this if it has something to do with supplies over a major river.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 5:32:19 PM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The weak northern opening however surprises me.


+1

Not only is Riga still around, but no panzer units across the river. He may not have big plans on Leningrad, but there is still a strategic gain to stretch the Russians as much as possible and also to threaten as much as possible.

I would be curious on his reasoning with this if it has something to do with supplies over a major river.


Well, he can't be strong everywhere. I am pretty sure he loaned panzers from AGC to AGS, and I think he sent some of AGN Panzers to help out in the center. I think he will push harder in the center and south than in the north.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/20/2012 8:47:02 PM   
76mm


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should be an excellent game, will be watching this one.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 11:51:59 AM   
Balou


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quote:

No Soviet runaways in 1941


With an axis opening like this one in the south + above house rule, good luck Tarhunnas. BTW, where exactly does "running away" starts and where does it end ?

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 4:38:36 PM   
Flaviusx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Balou

quote:

No Soviet runaways in 1941


With an axis opening like this one in the south + above house rule, good luck Tarhunnas. BTW, where exactly does "running away" starts and where does it end ?


Oh, there's obvious workarounds to this. Just starve SW Front of reinforcements and let the remnants die. Build up a new front well to the east of it with new cadres, as those remnants expend themselves delaying the Axis.

Not strictly speaking a "runaway" but achieves the same result.

But Axis players are deluding themselves into thinking that there is any conceivable way to mount a forward defense in the south following a strong Lvov opener. It cannot be done. The runaway is an artifact of the opener. People have got this exactly wrong and do the opener with the idea that it will prevent the runaway.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 5:01:06 PM   
Tarhunnas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

But Axis players are deluding themselves into thinking that there is any conceivable way to mount a forward defense in the south following a strong Lvov opener. It cannot be done. The runaway is an artifact of the opener. People have got this exactly wrong and do the opener with the idea that it will prevent the runaway.


Well, you can hardly expect an Axis player to forgo the obvious advantage of trapping as many Soviet units as possible in some hope that the Soviets might not run away, and knowing that if they don't run away those forces will delay him badly. Doing the as large a Lvov pocket as possible will alwyas be an optimum Axis opening. If you want it to go away, it must be fixed in the game, by for example cutting 5 MP off the panzers of AGS.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 5:05:43 PM   
Flaviusx


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Tarhunnas, I've concluded at this point that we are stuck with it. Fundamental redesign of the surprise turn will have to wait until WITE2. That's the real issue here, the surprise turn itself is badly designed. I've been saying this for quite some time.

The Lvov opener is indeed the optimal way of leveraging the peculiarities of the present design and people will continue to do it. I would do it myself. Very few people will voluntarily choose to play with a stock AGS as Bob did in your last game. It is plainly much harder to do it this way. Not because of a Soviet runaway. But indeed precisely because SW Front can fight it out up front and really slow down AGS as you did.




< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 5/21/2012 5:10:02 PM >


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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 5:15:20 PM   
Balou


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I was hoping that something like a house rule is clearly defined. Well, to me it doesn't seem so. In addition, since workarounds can be labeled artifacts of a strong Lvov opener, this too doesn't sound comforting.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 8:41:48 PM   
invernomuto


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
Well, you can hardly expect an Axis player to forgo the obvious advantage of trapping as many Soviet units as possible in some hope that the Soviets might not run away, and knowing that if they don't run away those forces will delay him badly. Doing the as large a Lvov pocket as possible will alwyas be an optimum Axis opening. If you want it to go away, it must be fixed in the game, by for example cutting 5 MP off the panzers of AGS.


AAR subscribed.

As for cutting 5 MP off the AGS Panzers, isn't it doable very easily with the editor?

Bye.

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Best AAR I've ever seen!!!

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 9:25:18 PM   
janh

 

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Subscribed, for certain. I hope Michael will give you a hard time, and you him of course too!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
That's the real issue here, the surprise turn itself is badly designed.


For a second I was tempted to agree with you. I some way you are right. You could prevent the overly impacting Lvov and Minsk successes by redesigning the surprise turn as well, but then in later turns similarly implausible outcomes remain still in the cards, even if they are less crucial than the first turn and can be mitigated better by the Soviet.

In my opinion this is still an artifact from the crudeness of the I-go-U-go. You can only blind-guess and preposition units, hoping the Axis will just stumble on them (or the Soviet, in the inverted situation). Yet on a time-scale of 1 week it is not credible that any side units couldn't redeploy at least within their ZOC, if not even a few hexes further to deploy in the axis of approach, or set up an ambush or so -- exactly like the reserve mode order. That holds true for both sides. I hope they'll re-investigate the solution they implemented in WitP after the experience with War in the Pacific for this phenomenon. They would get the I-Go-U-Go quite a step closer to mimicking simultaneous real-time events.

< Message edited by janh -- 5/21/2012 9:27:12 PM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 9:31:25 PM   
Tarhunnas


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I wouldn't say the surprise turn is badly designed at all. It just needs some adjustment. The Advance in AGN and AGC is reasonable, it is AGS that is problematical. I would suggest:

* Cut 5 MP off AGS panzers.
* Randomize Soviet setup slightly (to prevent those perfect openings rehearsed 100 times against the AI).

And before someone says the AI cannot cope with randomization, it's the easiset thing in the world. Vs human opponent the Soviet setup is randomized, vs the AI everything is fixed. Presto!

Edit, but with such a change there would need to be some offsetting change to balance things, otherwise I think the Soviets will get things too easy. For example further cut soviet rail cap on turn one by another 50%. It's way too easy for the Sovs to rail things around on turn 1. As it is now, it's their only hope, but it shouldn't be that way.



< Message edited by Tarhunnas -- 5/21/2012 9:33:57 PM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 10:04:04 PM   
notenome

 

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Offering my 5 cents on the turn 1 issue.

I think the main thing is that in that first week of Barbarossa, soviet C&C as well the logistics system collapsed. The soviets simply were not ready for war on this scale. This meant that resistance was very uneven. Soviet resistance ran the gamut from heroic (Brest, the infamous KV of Rasenei), to fierce yet disorganized counterattacks (Battle of Brody) to total collapse. In the end, the German advance (as in much of the war) was due less to outfighting the soviets then to outmaneuvering them.

As such I'd suggest that that the combat capacity of soviet units be increased, and especially in the south, many of the mobile units be put on reserve mode. On the other hand, soviet rail capacity and supply net should be lowered, to reflect that the problem wasn't so much on the ground (though there were plenty of problems there) but that the Soviet infrastructure was completely and hopelessly unready for a war on this scale.

Basically, as far as the early war goes, I see both sides having distinct a-historical advantages. On the one hand, he Axis units are a little too good at fighting (at launch it was the opposite) and on the other hand the Soviets have way too much strategic flexibility and mobility, being able to move their units with too much ease. Another solution would be to set a lot of soviet units to static and then increase Soviet AP points for the first 4 or 5 turns. Or to model in the devastating impact of Axis interdiction on soviet troop movements.

Sorry for the highjack.

< Message edited by notenome -- 5/21/2012 10:05:59 PM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 10:06:07 PM   
Flaviusx


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Lowering the AGS movement rates might prevent reaching the Romanian border, but it won't stop you from making a big pocket. Nor does it stop folks from borrowing the AGC panzers. AGC has mobile units to spare, and can get most of what it wants accomplished with as little as half of what it starts with, which is why you see AGN and AGS steal armor in almost every game almost from the getgo. (Not this one, though, which is curious. Not sure what's going on with AGN here.)

The surprise turn needs to work for all three army groups. 2 out of three doesn't cut it here. I think we need to ditch it altogether and make a special abreviated pre attack turn with an equally abbreviated Soviet reaction move. Then a regular turn to follow. The scaling in terms of time and space just doesn't quite match up if you try to shoehorn everything into a single surprise turn.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 5/21/2012 10:08:23 PM >


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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 10:09:53 PM   
notenome

 

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Well what stopped AGS from making a megapocket (along the lines of what happens in the game) were the massed soviet counterattacks, these succeeded in delaying AGS but also wrecked soviet mobile forces, leading to the smaller Uman pocket, which then gave the Germans a fairly free ride until they reached the Dnepr, which they simply could not crack.

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 10:15:16 PM   
Flaviusx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: notenome

Well what stopped AGS from making a megapocket (along the lines of what happens in the game) were the massed soviet counterattacks, these succeeded in delaying AGS but also wrecked soviet mobile forces, leading to the smaller Uman pocket, which then gave the Germans a fairly free ride until they reached the Dnepr, which they simply could not crack.


Hence why I'm liking a special attack turn and reaction move where both sides have limited movement.

Bear in mind this curious fact: the first turn in WITE is 3 days. Yet units are given movement rates equivalent to those of a full week turn. (Well, the Axis is, anyways. the Soviets get something like 2/3-3/4 of their MPs, which is still very generous from a scaling standpoint.) This mismatch in scaling I believe is the fundamental problem, especially in the context of an IGOUGO system.



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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 10:23:36 PM   
notenome

 

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Im inclined to agree with you. It took a week for the panzer to reach Minsk, and the Dvina. 2 half turns with, let's say, halved movement for the Axis and quarter mps for the Sovs, with no Sov rail on the first turn, would be interesting.

< Message edited by notenome -- 5/21/2012 10:24:24 PM >

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/21/2012 11:46:19 PM   
HITMAN202


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I've recently been a close follower of Michael T (probably due to the absence of Q-Ball and Pelton) and will be watching

this closely. I think trying to take Riga is a big, big gambit (and fails 30-40% in my test runs) and its safest to isolate

all SU south of the Daugava. But Michael T should've taken a few Pz/Mot div and "bump" the Daugava a few times to

control a few hexes north of the river. I don't think the SU can convert those hexes back to their control. But either

which way, Michael T is tempting Tarhunnas to defend the Daugava, which apparently he's doing. I think Trahunnas is

making a mistake because... 1) Pz/Mot will cross the river on turn #2 and eventually isolate most of the units 2) with

help from the Ger infantry on turn #3 , and 3) fewer units will be available to defend Pskov, fewer available to defend

the Luga, and then fewer to the defense of Leningrad itself.


Setting up a good screening defense in Pskov/surrounding area to make a major stance on the Luga is , I think, the

best. It takes 5 to 6 turns for a good number of German infantry to attack the river's defense (and may need a Pz

HQBU to garantee success.) The Soviet player has a lot of time to build a good defense there. Michael T. has baited

Tarhunnas successfully. Let's see if he can squeeze out of the trap.

< Message edited by HITMAN202 -- 5/21/2012 11:51:09 PM >


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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/22/2012 12:03:48 AM   
glvaca

 

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I see what you mean and you may be right that that is his intention.
I doubt if he'll get to Pskov on turn 2 though. Crossing a major river in enemy zoc or control costs a lot of movement.
Will be interesting to see whether your prediction comes true!

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RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) - 5/22/2012 2:19:12 AM   
HITMAN202


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It's not the issue of Pskov falling on turn #2 (if it does, the Soviets have made a mistake, not a fatal mistake, but a mistake.) The key to taking Leningrad quickly (again apart from the SU leaving it unoccupied) is to quickly get infantry (particularly the 1st and 2 nd Corp) on the Neva. The AGN PZ/Mot units must open the highway to the city by quickly converting hexes (the infantry following in their tracks.) A good defense on the Luga may keep the German infantry from getting to the Neva until the 7 th or 8 th turn. But it would probably take 2 lines of 1-2 level forts and 10-15 or so good defenders to achieve this.

Typically the German PZ/Mot cross the Daugava on turn #1, convert hexes leading to Pskov on turn #2, and then on turn #3 open up the city and surrounding area to infantry assault (infantry following the Pz/Mot unit each turn.) Usually AGN's Pz Corp aren't strong enough to force the issue. Pskov is captured on turn #4, the Luga line hit on turn #5.

If the SU is tempted by a brazen soul, like Michael T., to defend the Daugava on turn #1, I think at the very most, the German infantry will initially be set back 1/2 turn in their march to Leningrad. However the loss of 8-12 units in a forward defense will so weaken the critical Luga defensive line that the Germans will overpower this barrier with the end result that the Neva will be reached earlier.



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