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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

 
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/10/2018 12:18:46 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 23485
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

No differences of opinion about the campaign up to The Philippines, only over choosing the Philippines.


So take P/NG, Morotai, isolate Rabaul and Truk, island hopping=good, but don't take the Philippines once you've accomplished that? Leave all of the PI 'behind your lines'? I don't see the military logic in that either. If you're going to Formosa, you've *got* to take the Philippines.

I think there's some argument about whether Palau was necessary in the hops up there. But if not the Philippine archipelago, then how did you intend to secure your flank?

I didn't: wasn't even around then. Nimitz & Co. felt they had it covered. What was their plan?

_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2251
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/10/2018 12:25:31 AM   
ChuckBerger

 

Posts: 213
Joined: 8/10/2006
Status: offline
Important to bear in mind the uncertainties of the day, and how fast things were moving. It was only in September 1944 that the Allies even decided to leap for Leyte, from earlier more conservative plans to start on Mindanao.

The Allies didn't really know just how weak Japanese LPA had become until the raids on the Philippines in September and the Formosa raid; Halsey was astonished at the weak opposition in September.

So at the time the critical choice was being made, the Allies were probably over-estimating the ability of the Japanese air forces to respond. In this light, a jump to the Philippines - well covered by LBA from Morotai and Palau - starts to make a whole lot more sense.

Three other things: first, the "ambush" the IJN tried to pull off at Leyte Gulf might have been easier at Formosa. Second, Formosa might have been easier for the Japanese to reinforce - the Straits would have been hard to interdict consistently, and the Japanese would have had all of mainland China from which to base naval and air forces. Given how effective the first wave of Japanese kamakazes were in the Philippines, it could have been really ugly. And third - even if achievable, the Allies really were sensitive to casualties in a way no computer game can really replicate. So while Formosa might have been "do-able" historically, the Allies thought Leyte was very lightly held and presented the lower-risk, lower-casualty option. Militarily, the real question is not why Leyte, but why Luzon. A jump to Mindoro and from there to Palawan would have achieved Allied objectives better than the long hard slog on Luzon, which could have been left to whither on the vine. Politically, recapturing Manila was important...

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 2252
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/10/2018 3:33:45 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 5277
Joined: 9/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

A marginal Allied victory is a game victory but it shows a performance outcome less than the historical outcome.



If you mean that it's a game victory for the Allied player, then we are agreed. I feel you are singing somewhat different tunes between threads over time with regards to game victory conditions and historical comparisons - namely that historical comparisons, from a game victory/defeat standpoint, are out of the window at the get-go because (in essence) the game isn't a simulation.


I am singing a consistent tune.

The game has objective victory conditions which trump the "I don't need no stupid stinkin' VPs to tell me if I've won, I'll know anyway the outcome" school of thought. I've never shied away from the VP indicator being the objective metric of assessing victory.

What gets misunderstood is that built in to the objective VP metric is a subjective perspective which is based on the historical Allied performance. Hence why there are different grades of victory which reflect the historical outcome. In any other game a victory is a victory. Win a game of chess by checkmating your opponent in 4 moves does not earn you more tournament points than if the checkmate had taken 30 moves, and that in turn does not earn more points than winning by the opponent resigning. Nor does a Black win generate more tournament points than a White win. Similarly in gridiron, whether the win is by 1 or 57 points, it is only a win.

In AE there exists a gradation of victory levels. This exists to pander to the rabid American market which finds it impossible to accept anything other than their perceived God given right (practically enshrined in the Constitution in a "post 1945 amendment") that only the USA is entitled to win the 1941-45 Pacific War and anything else means the game is a failure. The problem with this mindset is that not only are there Allied players not good enough to achieve game results commensurate with the outcomes achieved by the historical commanders, it also overlooks the ability of Japanese players to achieve better than historical outcomes.

The victory conditions outlined in chapter 17 of the manual are quite clear that they have been determined on the basis of historical considerations. At the micro level this can be seen in the different values attached to the loss of Chinese/Filipino, Soviet, other Allied, and Japanese devices; 12 Chinese Support devices = 4 other Allied Support devices even though they have exactly the same characteristics. The only difference being the home public tolerance level of incurring casualties.

It is at the macro level where the historical considerations are most clearly visible. The Allied player must achieve an auto victory by the historical deadline (actually in AE the player is given a bit of extra time) in order to achieve the historical Decisive Victory. Achieve it (or the 1.75:1 ratio at conclusion of the scenario) after the historical date and there are two specific factors which are applied to "arbitrarily" reduce the quality of the "victory". These factors are outlined in s.17.1.1 and 17.1.2. Why should using a third Atomic Bomb automatically reduce the victory level or why does it matter if the auto victory/1.75:1 ratio is achieved in November 1945 or March 1946? The answer is it is valid only because the quality of the victory is being directly assessed against the historical outcome.

Precisely because it is a game which must allow for the result to be determined by the efforts of the players themselves rather than some predetermined inflexible outcome, but significantly a game whose primary market is America, the victory gradations exist as a sop to the ego of Allied players. It is therefore possible for an Allied player to still claim a Marginal Victory at best and not feel too bad even though they failed the historical test. One shudders to think of the reaction of Allied players confronted with a Draw or even a Marginal Japanese Victory at the conclusion. If there were no victory gradation levels in the game, IOW if the winner were simply determined on the basis of the side which has 1 more VP at the conclusion of the scenario, there would be no rational reason why non masochists would agree to play Japan in PBEM.[/I]


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

In this game, there is no guarantee that the Allies will even achieve a 1.25:1 VP ratio before 1 September 1945.



Which, if the game were to end on September 1, 1945, would be relevant. But the game doesn't end then. The only time the 1.25:1 ratio matters is when the clock runs out in 1946. The only ratio that matters before the clock runs out is the autovictory ratio for the given year.

See above comments re the need no stinkin' VP school of thought. It also goes directly to the psychology of the VP school of thought player in that even with a subsequent improvement in the ratio, an improvement which may well not arise (certainly not to a subsequent 1.75:1 ratio) given the performance of the players to date, it emphasises just how far short of the historical performance the Allied player has been.



The bottom line is that no Allied player, irrespective of whether their opponent is Human or the Computer, can truly be satisfied that they have outplayed their opponent unless they achieve an Auto Victory by the historical date (bearing in mind the devs have given a bit of extra time to do so).

Alfred[/I]


< Message edited by Alfred -- 8/10/2018 3:38:55 AM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2253
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/10/2018 4:44:59 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 8144
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

The bottom line is that no Allied player, irrespective of whether their opponent is Human or the Computer, can truly be satisfied that they have outplayed their opponent unless they achieve an Auto Victory by the historical date (bearing in mind the devs have given a bit of extra time to do so).


This is my general feeling as well.

I know the devs didn't have time to playtest all the way to the end to get a better feel for it. Before I had 1944/1945 game experience, I thought the victory conditions they defined sounded just fine - in a ballpark estimate kind of way. Now I don't. They are still tilted towards the Allies in terms of decisive victory by X date. For example, achieving the analogy to historical victory (auto victory) after 9/1/1945 should really be a draw IMO, not a marginal victory.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 2254
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/10/2018 10:55:34 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 23882
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

MacArthur's campaign effectively sealed off the DEI and Philippines from the Japanese


Actually, it didn't, and don't think Halsey didn't notice. Subs kept hitting stuff but ships were still getting through the gap behind Formosa. Halsey & Nimitz thought, correctly I believe, that holding Formosa would have sealed that door tightly shut and would have allowed us to better supply and use China to end the war. Keep in mind nobody knew about a A-Bomb. I suspect with Formosa in hand the Philippines would have been necessary. Fortunately....we have an excellent simulation in this game. Imagine, or recreate, the respective forces and positions in the game in say.....September 1944. I submit to you that the obvious choice would be Formosa. That takes all resources out of play 100% and save the need for massive ground forces to take back the Philippines. The assumption , at the time, was that an invasion of the mainland of Japan was going to be required. Why burn all those divisions taking something off the direct path? Mcarther just wanted his Army show and to say "I have returned". Same reason he refused to let the Australians participate in the Philippines. More glory for him


The problem with Japanese shipping continuing to ply the Formosa strait / South China Sea to and from the home islands is one of a failure of US submarine command to recognize the bottleneck that was the strait and throttle it with their surfeit of submarines earlier in the war.

And if you beeline to Formosa and bypass Luzon, don't you think that would be an even larger issue with Japanese shipping now cutting your LOS? I'm not saying that Formosa wasn't an interesting call for a destination. But I'm saying that taking Formosa and NOT taking the Philippines would be foolhardy.

Remember too that most of the Philippine islands were captured 'cheaply' by most standards. RCTs, with local guerilla forces were responsible for the recapture of most of them. Luzon and Leyte got larger cadres than most. But you'd need Luzon if you're going to Formosa. You could probably do without Palawan.

And there's the political aspect that others have touched on as well. Yes, MacArthur was a glory-hound and self-serving to the nth degree. But it doesn't mean that the Philippines weren't an important aspect of the victory in the Pacific and that they should have been omitted in the war planning.

_____________________________


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 2255
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/14/2018 11:00:48 PM   
obvert


Posts: 11773
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Dec 24, 1944


The Allies continue to land more troops at Wakkanai, and it's looking bleak up there. I bungled this one by not having all allocated divisions in hex to begin, thinking the rail would be available. The Allied use of non-base landing hexes is interesting, and if it pans out, will be something to look out for in the future as well.

Sweeps over the Allied troops just South of Wakkanai hit directly onto the DS CAP, which is in hex. This gives me a good indication of the size of it (massive) and whittles it down somewhat. Fighter osses are about even on the day, but heavy for both sides, as the Allies get the better of it at Wakkanai, and the Japanese win the battles over the DS and down South over Bangkok.

A lot of units are moving North. I am losing hope for Wakkanai, but I'll keep scratching and clawing here. Fingers crossed he tries a DA before troops are recovered form the last and it gets a negative. I do have some other plans moving in, but I'm reluctant to hit go until the situation looks good.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 24, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Naval bombardment of Wakkanai at 122,48 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

98 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB New Jersey
BB Iowa
CA Chicago, Shell hits 10
CL Raleigh
DD Stevens
DD Rowe
DD Knapp
DD Kidd
DD Erben
DD Eaton
DD DeHaven, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Cogswell
DMS Hobson

Japanese ground losses:
203 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 5
Port hits 4

BB New Jersey firing at 72nd Division

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 122,49 , near Wakkanai

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 43,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 24

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 14
Hellcat I x 5
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 17
Seafire L.III x 4
Spitfire VIII x 6
P-51D Mustang x 15
F4F-4 Wildcat x 17
FM-2 Wildcat x 13
F4U-1A Corsair x 124
F4U-1D Corsair x 59
F6F-3 Hellcat x 638
F6F-5 Hellcat x 348

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 8 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 4 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 122,49 , near Wakkanai

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 36,440 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84b Frank x 34

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 14
Hellcat I x 4
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 17
Seafire L.III x 3
Spitfire VIII x 6
P-51D Mustang x 15
F4F-4 Wildcat x 17
FM-2 Wildcat x 11
F4U-1A Corsair x 119
F4U-1D Corsair x 55
F6F-3 Hellcat x 626
F6F-5 Hellcat x 335

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84b Frank: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 7 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 122,49 , near Wakkanai

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 38,440 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84b Frank x 42

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 14
Hellcat I x 4
Hellcat F.II x 13
Seafire IIC x 17
Seafire L.III x 3
Spitfire VIII x 6
P-51D Mustang x 15
F4F-4 Wildcat x 17
FM-2 Wildcat x 10
F4U-1A Corsair x 116
F4U-1D Corsair x 53
F6F-3 Hellcat x 593
F6F-5 Hellcat x 322

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84b Frank: 9 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 8 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 3 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 36,900 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 7
N1K1-J George x 3
N1K5-J George x 20
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 14
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 37
Ki-84a Frank x 4
Ki-84r Frank x 14

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 30

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 7 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed


Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 3 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Wakkanai , at 122,48

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 1
N1K1-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 2
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 6
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 2
Ki-84a Frank x 1

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 12
B-24J Liberator x 41
B-29-1 Superfort x 28
P-38L Lightning x 20
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 53
P-51D Mustang x 3
F4U-1D Corsair x 24
F6F-5 Hellcat x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator B.VI: 5 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 11 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
B-29-1 Superfort: 16 damaged
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
160 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 9
Runway hits 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Bangkok , at 56,62

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 12 NM, estimated altitude 42,900 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 7
N1K5-J George x 16
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 10
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 5
Ki-84a Frank x 5

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 7 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Wakkanai (122,48)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12726 troops, 289 guns, 920 vehicles, Assault Value = 2055

Defending force 41237 troops, 414 guns, 26 vehicles, Assault Value = 1050

Allied adjusted assault: 306

Japanese adjusted defense: 1789

Allied assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
598 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 46 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 94 (9 destroyed, 85 disabled)

Assaulting units:
3rd Marine Division
131st Combat Engr Rgt /9
2/6th Armoured Regiment
192nd Tank Battalion
77th Infantry Division
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
93rd Infantry Division
5th USMC Tank Battalion
3rd Regiment
98th Infantry Division
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
1st Australian Division
2/4th Armoured Regiment
762nd Tank Battalion
11th Airborne Div /2
82nd Mortar Battalion
I Corps Artillery
205th Field Artillery Battalion
3rd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
265th Coastal Artillery Regiment
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
72nd Division
11th Ind.Mixed Regiment
51st Ind.Mixed Brigade
43rd Div /2
Soya Fortress
89th Div /2
218th Naval Construction Battalion
23rd Air Flotilla
5th Fleet
29th Field AF Construction Battalion
206th Naval Construction Battalion
178th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Attachment (1)

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2256
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/15/2018 9:58:54 PM   
obvert


Posts: 11773
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Dec 25, 1944


Catastrophe strikes at Wakkanai on Christmas Day. The Allies don't take the day off and must have gotten an extra bonus for fighting on the holy day as their first assault gets a 2:1 and lowers forts to 5. Yikes!!

This is serious. It's now time to get all elements into action. Yamato and company will head for Wakkanai, and two separate TFs with all remaining CA will join. The KB will move in for an attempted 8 hex strike on whatever is located at the coastal hex south of Wakkanai where he's been unloading, or at Wakkanai itself if anything is left there during the day. Due to the angle of approach I think at 8 hexes the Allies, even if the CVs react, will not be able to hit us.

Troops are moving up toward Wakkanai, but suffered another difficulty when several divisions movements were reset to 0 after being about to walk into the next hex, which the IJA already owned. the fact that another unit crossed into it, Dan's attempt at sacrificial blocking, cancelled orders. This truly sucks, as those units had a chance to make a difference up there, but will now be too late most likely.

I'm still flying in all I can, and hope the BBs get through for a bombardment. Here goes.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 25, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Niigata , at 114,57

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 12

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Niigata , at 114,57

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 6

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Niigata , at 114,57

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 2

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 7

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Light Industry hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 8000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at 122,49

TF 533 troops unloading over beach at 122,49

Allied ground losses:
725 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 127 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 53 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 5 (0 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (0 destroyed, 17 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at 122,49

TF 574 troops unloading over beach at 122,49

Allied ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 112th Cavalry Regiment, at 122,49 , near Wakkanai

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 48 NM, estimated altitude 44,530 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 9

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 7
F6F-5 Hellcat x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at 122,49

TF 399 troops unloading over beach at 122,49

Allied ground losses:
50 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 18 (0 destroyed, 18 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at 122,49

TF 416 troops unloading over beach at 122,49

Allied ground losses:
1053 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 160 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 82 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 154 (0 destroyed, 154 disabled)
Vehicles lost 119 (0 destroyed, 119 disabled)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Wakkanai (122,48)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 74632 troops, 1099 guns, 1685 vehicles, Assault Value = 2051

Defending force 41970 troops, 437 guns, 26 vehicles, Assault Value = 1053

Allied adjusted assault: 2512

Japanese adjusted defense: 1037

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 6)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1919 casualties reported
Squads: 23 destroyed, 136 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 32 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 49 disabled
Guns lost 35 (12 destroyed, 23 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1831 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 199 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 64 disabled
Guns lost 29 (5 destroyed, 24 disabled)
Vehicles lost 81 (16 destroyed, 65 disabled)


Assaulting units:
5th USMC Tank Battalion
77th Infantry Division
192nd Tank Battalion
93rd Infantry Division
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
1st Australian Division
2/4th Armoured Regiment
3rd Marine Division
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
3rd Regiment
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
98th Infantry Division
762nd Tank Battalion
2/6th Armoured Regiment
11th Airborne Div /2
3rd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
205th Field Artillery Battalion
265th Coastal Artillery Regiment
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment
I Corps Artillery
82nd Mortar Battalion
Provisional GMC Grp

Defending units:
43rd Div /2
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
51st Ind.Mixed Brigade
72nd Division
11th Ind.Mixed Regiment
Soya Fortress
89th Div /2
29th Field AF Construction Battalion
206th Naval Construction Battalion
5th Fleet
23rd Air Flotilla
218th Naval Construction Battalion
178th JAAF AF Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Attachment (1)

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2257
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:20:35 PM   
obvert


Posts: 11773
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
The 26th begins with a flutter of concern as I've just committed the bulk of the remaining surface forces of the IJN. Two other BBs are repairing, and a few CL/DD are down South, but this is the good stuff.

Of course Yamato hits the DDs at Wakkanai first thing. They sink two, but this just reduces ammo and ops for later.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2258
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:21:44 PM   
obvert


Posts: 11773
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Next up Salt Lake and more DDs. The Salt Lake doesn't make it, but most of the IJN DDs now take significant damage, and a few split off.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2259
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:22:53 PM   
obvert


Posts: 11773
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Finally the cruisers show up, and they get their turn to tangle with some destroyers. They do well, sinking 2-3 more.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2260
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:24:14 PM   
obvert


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The big cruisers then find the remains of a TF and mop up. Still haven't seen any bigger ships which we know are around due to run-ins with MTBs in the early part of the turn. This starts to make me feel worried.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:26:39 PM   
obvert


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Here they are, now, as th IJN DDs smoke, the Allies begin smashing them with more hits. The IJN BBs do hit hard, but they can't match the targeting or frequency of Allied gunnery at this point in the war. It begins to look bad.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:28:07 PM   
obvert


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The Allied bombardment gets though, which is a bad sign. This generally means the IJN have used up their ops, are disorganised and damaged, and low on ammo. This bears itself out during the rest of the turn.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:29:21 PM   
obvert


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Sweeps do a great job of clearing away the CAP, and this makes me optimistic for the air phases of the turn.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:31:01 PM   
obvert


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The LBA strikes go in and a number of them get bombers through and onto the main targets, including BB Missouri! Only a Kate actually hits the behemoth though.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:32:01 PM   
obvert


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Others do hit the invasion shipping though, including some fast transports. This is good, but not good enough.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:33:50 PM   
obvert


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Waves of unescorted Allied LBA begin to arrive, and although a lot are shot down, the LR CAP strangely hangs over Wakkanai and lets some get through to the BBs. This ends up being decisive.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:34:29 PM   
obvert


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Large LBA strikes against Wakkanai troops further weakens LR CAP but doesn't protect the troops.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:35:59 PM   
obvert


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Hyuga and the rest take hits from DBs and TBs, and it begins to get ugly.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:37:05 PM   
obvert


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Yamato swallows multiple fish, while a detached and lonely Ise succumbs to the air strikes as well and goes under.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:46:34 PM   
obvert


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At the end of the day, the Allies sink Ise, which is left alone out of ops and ammo against three Allied DDs. The airstrikes mortally wound the other two BBs, while Tone is also sunk by ring DDs near the end of the turn.

Yamato and Hyuga limp on, in spite of Yamato taking seven (!) torpedoes. If she does make it, her survival will only be symbolic as her war as a fighting ship is done. I'm glad now I didn't build Musashi after this performance!




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:49:35 PM   
obvert


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The real downer today is that the KB did not launch any strikes. Missouri and the amphibs would have been under a lot more pressure, and the ships at Wakkanai might have had more losses as well if those planes had flew. Dan got a sighting of them near Akita, so I'll pull back and regroup to look for another opportunity.

The BBs are two hexes out of Sapporo, but probably won't make it past tomorrow anyway.

The Allies now have a really serious blockade one hex South of Wakkanai. His landings on non-base hexes have surprised me, and I will be curious to see how effective those troops are in about a week if we can engage them.




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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 2:59:22 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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Another epic

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 3:59:34 PM   
ericv

 

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Another epic battle, with mixed results. I had hoped the BB's would have delivered one more mighty punch.

On the bright side, your LBA and I assume, your carrier based airforces, are still very present and capable.
Very good planes, with good results overall air to air.

Burma still seems a big mess for him, and a lot of territory is still firmly in your hands.

The activation of kamikazes isn't far off, another thing to look forward to maybe? I am unfamiliar with the effectiveness of kamikaze as the farthest I have reached is januari 1943 in my current PBEM.
I don't know if you have experience with or expectations of their effectiveness?

In general, you are on the defensive but the window of time is closing for the Allies. It's december 1944, the coming winter months might hamper his operations.





(in reply to adarbrauner)
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 6:32:49 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

Of course Yamato hits the DDs at Wakkanai first thing. They sink two, but this just reduces ammo and ops for later.


This is the real killer for the IJN in the late war. Any decent Allied invasion has an average of what, 10 to 20 dedicated TF's in the invasion hex. It's a lot of engagements to fight through and the game engine doesn't really handle it amazingly. It's frustrating to see torpedoes wasted on the likes of LST's when there's the potential for bigger targets in other TF's.


Of those, only three or four offer a real return in terms of VP's for risking high value IJN warships.

- the escorting BB's (risky: if it's slow BB's on bombardment duties they're normally Long Lance fodder, but the modern stuff can be dangerous).
- the covering CVE's (pretty much free VP's if you can properly engage them, they tend to burn very nicely in surface combat, but you need to luck out and avoid the hated "Allied CV TF evades combat")
- the invading amphibious ships (even then, they're often not worth the loss of IJN warships unless they're loaded chock full of troops).

I don't think you did anything wrong, you just got unlucky. The only other thing I could have thought to do was maybe peel two escorting DD's from every SCTF and have a bunch of two DD TF's patroling around the combat hex to provoke reactions from the Allies. I've had a bit of luck doing this with the likes of the E-class ships, PB's, basically anything with the slightest capacity in surface combat. They're not there to sink ships, just to sow confusion and draw off Allied assets out of the invasion hex. Sometimes they get lucky, I had some E-class ships maul a bunch of CVE's once. Obviously lucked out that day...


(in reply to obvert)
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 7:28:21 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

Of course Yamato hits the DDs at Wakkanai first thing. They sink two, but this just reduces ammo and ops for later.


This is the real killer for the IJN in the late war. Any decent Allied invasion has an average of what, 10 to 20 dedicated TF's in the invasion hex. It's a lot of engagements to fight through and the game engine doesn't really handle it amazingly. It's frustrating to see torpedoes wasted on the likes of LST's when there's the potential for bigger targets in other TF's.


Of those, only three or four offer a real return in terms of VP's for risking high value IJN warships.

- the escorting BB's (risky: if it's slow BB's on bombardment duties they're normally Long Lance fodder, but the modern stuff can be dangerous).
- the covering CVE's (pretty much free VP's if you can properly engage them, they tend to burn very nicely in surface combat, but you need to luck out and avoid the hated "Allied CV TF evades combat")
- the invading amphibious ships (even then, they're often not worth the loss of IJN warships unless they're loaded chock full of troops).

I don't think you did anything wrong, you just got unlucky. The only other thing I could have thought to do was maybe peel two escorting DD's from every SCTF and have a bunch of two DD TF's patroling around the combat hex to provoke reactions from the Allies. I've had a bit of luck doing this with the likes of the E-class ships, PB's, basically anything with the slightest capacity in surface combat. They're not there to sink ships, just to sow confusion and draw off Allied assets out of the invasion hex. Sometimes they get lucky, I had some E-class ships maul a bunch of CVE's once. Obviously lucked out that day...




In the two battles at Shikuka I basically did that, sending in waves of smaller combat ships to kill off Dan's xAK blockades, eat DD ops and ammo and generally confuse the situation. Worked well the first time, less well the second time as there were just too many ships out there to engage, more than half of them merchants and LSTs several hexes from Shikuka.

This time I didn't feel I had the chance to show my cards by pulling together all assets. Surprise strikes carry risk, and I knew that going in, but felt the time was getting short and if I was going to try and turn something it had to be quickly. Since he hadn't spotted the KB I thought it was good timing.

He's only been using modern BBs for bombardments, and I'm not sure there are many old ones left. The Allies have lost a lot of BBs so far. I know Arkansas and New York just arrived so they should be around, but I haven't seen them yet. Luckily Alabama was hit with two midget sub fish a few days back, so she's out for a while.

It's up to the air power for a while as my cruisers now need to sit and protect Sapporo from getting hit by sea.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 7:32:26 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv

Another epic battle, with mixed results. I had hoped the BB's would have delivered one more mighty punch.

On the bright side, your LBA and I assume, your carrier based airforces, are still very present and capable.
Very good planes, with good results overall air to air.

Burma still seems a big mess for him, and a lot of territory is still firmly in your hands.

The activation of kamikazes isn't far off, another thing to look forward to maybe? I am unfamiliar with the effectiveness of kamikaze as the farthest I have reached is januari 1943 in my current PBEM.
I don't know if you have experience with or expectations of their effectiveness?

In general, you are on the defensive but the window of time is closing for the Allies. It's december 1944, the coming winter months might hamper his operations.



I've been to this stage once and kamis were very effective for m, but the VP ratio is tough unless you hit the jackpot with a lone CVE TF or something. Still they are good in combination with standard bombing and torpedoes, and I have 3,000 airframes ready to go with a lot of trained kami pilots.

If I run them high and low with DB in between and different TB all over the altitude range, it should get through the CAP. I'll go over some airframe stuff soon looking at losses versus production/arrival of airframes. It seems like he can never run out, but I think actually it's getting tight over there now for replacements.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 8:26:54 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The real downer today is that the KB did not launch any strikes. .



Any idea why?

(in reply to obvert)
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_Sq... - 8/16/2018 8:37:16 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The real downer today is that the KB did not launch any strikes. .



Any idea why?



Weather. Didn't get the dozens of CAP destroyed search planes, so must be weather.

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