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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A)

 
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 8:17:13 AM   
Mac Linehan

 

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obvert -

Very exciting and different AAR. You still have many other tools in the box - as the Pro's have pointed out. This is an opportunity to use a different approach - and really think out of the box.

Long ago, another poster (I have forgotten whom,) stated that Naval Air (CV's) are used mainly against enemy TF's (your CV's are fragile); but that Land Based Air was the real heavy hitter - with staying power; and formed the shield behind which your CV's could shelter and strike. A net of mutually supporting air bases can be lethal - as we have seen in several other AAR's.

I am not an expert in any way - but I do understand the principles involved. You will recover - and become proficient in placing the LBA and all important Air HQ's where they need to be.

I will follow this AAR with interest - you have my respect.

Mac

_____________________________

LAV-25 2147

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 61
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 8:31:43 AM   
koniu

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
When are kamis activated if they are invaded?


7.4.2.3 KAMIKAZES
Kamikazes are activated if the Allies own a base within 15 hexes (traced by sea only) of either Tokyo, Takao, or Saigon. However, these will never activate before January 1, 1944. Once
Kamikazes are activated, the Air Unit Information Screen for Japanese players will show
a Kamikaze option if no squadron has been converted to kamikaze yet this day and if the
aircraft squadron is of the appropriate type (essentially anything other than a Transport aircraft squadron can become a Kamikaze squadron). The player is limited to one conversion per day,
but may not re-convert a Kamikaze unit to regular status. The computer will prompt the player
to confirm their choice before proceeding, giving you a chance to reconsider.
Once a squadron is converted to Kamikaze, it may only conduct three Mission types –
Kamikaze, Training, and Stand Down. The Kamikaze Mission is a variant of the Naval Attack
Mission, which of course if successful means unit casualties. Training is not to imply that these
pilots are training by crashing their aircraft into ships, but that they are trying to learn better
flight techniques. Stand Down is detailed in section 7.1.
Think carefully before converting a squadron into a Kamikaze unit; sometimes the men in
the unit are experienced and more valuable to you in their normal jobs. Likewise, however, a
higher-experience Kamikaze unit will fly better than one full of trainees.




_____________________________

"Only the Dead Have Seen the End of War"

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 62
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 8:42:24 AM   
obvert


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Thanks Koniu. I had the date 1/44 in my head, but I wasn't sure if this was a definite date or not.

That' a date to look forward to at least.

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Post #: 63
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 8:44:50 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mac Linehan

obvert -

Very exciting and different AAR. You still have many other tools in the box - as the Pro's have pointed out. This is an opportunity to use a different approach - and really think out of the box.

Long ago, another poster (I have forgotten whom,) stated that Naval Air (CV's) are used mainly against enemy TF's (your CV's are fragile); but that Land Based Air was the real heavy hitter - with staying power; and formed the shield behind which your CV's could shelter and strike. A net of mutually supporting air bases can be lethal - as we have seen in several other AAR's.

I am not an expert in any way - but I do understand the principles involved. You will recover - and become proficient in placing the LBA and all important Air HQ's where they need to be.

I will follow this AAR with interest - you have my respect.

Mac


Thanks Mac. I appreciate the encouragement and insight.

I hope you're right, and I also hope I can figure out the best use and development of LBA. I'll be doing some research for sure.

Luckily I have another game going to test out some of these things about a year ahead of this one.

(in reply to Mac Linehan)
Post #: 64
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 9:14:56 AM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

As a counter to LoBaron, I would really try to take Adak now while you can.

Great tripwire to any Northern adventure by your opponent.  And with this game, that has to be a major concern now.  Given how the naval air power is looking in this game, as the allies, I would be prepping for a Northern axis of attack beginning mid '43.  Adak (as a lvl 8 port) becomes a key staging point to minimize disruption of the allied landing forces going into the Kuriles and Hokkaido.

If you are going to get into a slugfest, that location is far preferred by you as opposed to Solomons or elsewhere.  Closer for you to support.  If you can get it and develop it, it becomes  a pretty strong base that the allies will struggle to take until late '42.  Also, helps you develolp the kuriles and hokkaido defense infrastructure as you fight up there.

You've got troops that you can use now.  The allies don't have much to go there.

The second axis for me would be China.  You really have to be successful there to free up those LCU's.  You're going to need all those Independent brigades as island garrison forces soon.

Buy out all those air groups you just lost ASAP.  you need them as land based naval air groups, especailly the Zero's.  If you are PDU on, they should be able to upgrade to George after they upgrade to A6M5 ... the Val and Kate groups are what you will need to counter any amphib operation in the Burma area behind your MLD.

Keep going!!!  Banzai!!!



PS: I think this will become a great AAR. I have always beleived that the IJ did themselves a real disservice hiding their Midway losses and not adapting their strategy hardly at all. Go read StoneAge's AAR. He had a similar disaster (actually worse IIRC, albeit not on Dec 8) and was able to get quite deep into '45 effectively in his game.


Thanks for all of the advice Pax. It really is a mental shift, but I have to keep reminding myself that there are possibilities out there.

Interesting thought about Adak. I had thought just to get the Kuriles solid, but you make a good point about denying that as a staging point for the Allies. After the next few turns decide my fate on the seas, I'll assess what is left and what seems possible.

China will be important. He'll have access to a lot I did last time that worked, but I hope to do it differently and more efficiently having gone through the process already. Upgrading 1E to 2E groups and buying armor will take most of my PPs early after I get the KB air wings back. Training will be paramount after losing that many good pilots as well.

I just bought two of the KB zero groups back, and as I can afford them I'll buy the rest. It looks like PPs are going to be even more precious in this one.

One thought about the Kuriles. When are kamis activated if they are invaded?



Good points PaxMondo has.

I cannot decide what makes more sense, and may stand corrected.

Just a few remarks to support my point of view:

Adak is one of a couple of staging areas for operations against the Kuriles or mainland Japan. On the other hand, I think that many assessments of a Kuriles/Hokkaido invasion scenario
are far too much influenced by GreyJoy´s invasion in his game against Rader, which was an extremely atypical situation enhanced by double mistakes (Rader relying on the 'fact' noone
would be as bold to even attempt such a stunt in GJs global situation - and so not really preparing against an attack, GJ believing he just needs to get ashore and the rest will follow - against a fully
operational Japanese industry).

In reality, if you go Kuriles against a prepared opponent, I would rather go from PH or Kodiak with a deviation to the South. And I would reserve the op for late war. The reason is, Adak is a tripwire
independent of whether the Allies own it or not. Neccesarily you need submarines in that area, and you can reach as far as Adak with patrol planes from the Kuriles, but if the Allied player launches an
invasion originating from Adak/Dutch Harbor, the alert Japanese player should know, and have prepared defenses and reserves for this occasion anyway.

Owning Adak as Japan is no implication to leave the Kuriles less guarded, because Adak is only one of several possible invasion routes, and it is the most obvious. There are many
other areas where it is more important to keep an Allied player at arms lenght than in the Aleuthians.

Interesting discussion I have to say! Obvert, please say if you consider such a discussion too off topic for your AAR.



_____________________________

S**t happens in war.

All hail the superior ones!

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Post #: 65
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 11:27:16 AM   
obvert


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quote:

Interesting discussion I have to say! Obvert, please say if you consider such a discussion too off topic for your AAR.


Not at all. The Aleutians have tempted me as a tripwire/patrol zone since the GJ/rader game. I took everything up to Cold Bay to hopefully slow Allied advances up here in my other current game and think it's a crucial area to consider. But as you say, the first goal should be to prepare the Kuriles and Hokkaido for defense.

Any topics involved in defense of the Empire will be very welcome here, in whatever detail you'd like to go into them.

(in reply to LoBaron)
Post #: 66
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 7:47:27 PM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Thanks Koniu. I had the date 1/44 in my head, but I wasn't sure if this was a definite date or not.

That' a date to look forward to at least.

Hmmm, not really.

Here's why: you don't get your first training group until like 9/44. Until then you can't pull enough pilots fast enough for kami. So if you get kami activated early, you'll be short of pilots to man them ... assuming that you've been able to stockpile enough air frames, and again, by 1/44 that will be a stretch.

Re-read Nemo's AAR ... kami's are really effective in overwhelming numbers ... but that means +1000 going in and being lost (they are one-way after all). That is a lot of air frames and pilots that you have to have ...

_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 67
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 8:08:35 PM   
Mike Solli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: koniu
Likewise, however, a higher-experience Kamikaze unit will fly better than one full of trainees.


Well, they'll do it once anyway.

_____________________________


Created by the amazing Dixie

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Post #: 68
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 8:12:30 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Thanks Koniu. I had the date 1/44 in my head, but I wasn't sure if this was a definite date or not.

That' a date to look forward to at least.

Hmmm, not really.

Here's why: you don't get your first training group until like 9/44. Until then you can't pull enough pilots fast enough for kami. So if you get kami activated early, you'll be short of pilots to man them ... assuming that you've been able to stockpile enough air frames, and again, by 1/44 that will be a stretch.

Re-read Nemo's AAR ... kami's are really effective in overwhelming numbers ... but that means +1000 going in and being lost (they are one-way after all). That is a lot of air frames and pilots that you have to have ...


Interesting thoughts Pax. I do train a lot of IJAAF pilots in Low Naval and ASW. I assume those could fly the surplus Sallys and Oscars I will have. Not 1,000 maybe, but for a few sorties, quite a lot. It's really a shock weapon, to be used in dire circumstances, right? But better to have than option than not to. Not that I'd give up the Kuriles intentionally for the chance, but if it were to come to that.

I think Nemo was playing a 45 onward downfall-like scenario, right? 44 would be different I would imagine. Not as much of an Allied advantage, maybe?

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 69
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 8:16:03 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

Re-read Nemo's AAR ... kami's are really effective in overwhelming numbers ... but that means +1000 going in and being lost (they are one-way after all). That is a lot of air frames and pilots that you have to have ...


and Nemo used multiple groups at multiple altitudes in altitude bands from 40K to on the deck .. ensuring that the CAP will be overwhlemed at some altitude band ..

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Post #: 70
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 9:18:48 PM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I think Nemo was playing a 45 onward downfall-like scenario, right? 44 would be different I would imagine. Not as much of an Allied advantage, maybe?

Depending upon your losses here, by mid-44 the allies could have a fairly good sized armada available.

Nemo's AAR suggests you can't use them piecemeal ... you go all in, with pretty spectacular results. So, losing 1000 pilots and planes in one day ... and you need to think in terms doing it several times. Kami's are a fearsome weapon, but they are expensive. Air frames are one aspect, but pilots are the other. until you get training groups, its hard to be able to get that many pilots processed. And Nemo's results show you don't need to train them that much. I think he was using 30 exp and 50 low nav skill. So, 3 - 4 weeks training. quick.

_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 71
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/20/2012 10:04:33 PM   
Captain Cruft


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You don't need kamis IMO. Just lots of planes.

Even the evil Fletcher class DDs can be countered. In the report below the Oscars have LowN averaging around 35.


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Sep 02, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Tokara Retto at 99,63

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 353

Japanese aircraft losses
     Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 3 destroyed, 55 damaged
     Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 12 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
     DD Lawrence, Shell hits 5, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Bennion, Shell hits 7, Bomb hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     DD Brooks, Shell hits 1
     DD Bullard, Shell hits 6, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Hatfield, Shell hits 6, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     DD King, Shell hits 5
     DD Sands, Shell hits 3, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Gilmer, Shell hits 4, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Black, Shell hits 3, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     DD Bradford, Shell hits 1, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     DD Boyd, Shell hits 5, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     DD Litchfield, Shell hits 8, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Paul Jones, Shell hits 6, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
     DD Brown, Shell hits 1, Bomb hits 2,  on fire
     DD Braine, Shell hits 1, Bomb hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     DD Humphreys, Shell hits 4
     DD Kane, Shell hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
     63 x Ki-43-IIb Oscar bombing from 100 feet
              Naval Attack:  2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
     63 x Ki-43-IIb Oscar bombing from 100 feet
              Naval Attack:  2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
     78 x Ki-43-IIb Oscar bombing from 100 feet
              Naval Attack:  2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
     65 x Ki-43-IIb Oscar bombing from 100 feet
              Naval Attack:  2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
     68 x Ki-43-IIb Oscar bombing from 100 feet
              Naval Attack:  2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

Banzai! - Iwaya R. in a Ki-43-IIb Oscar is willing to die for the Emperor
Banzai! - Hida J. in a Ki-43-IIb Oscar is willing to die for the Emperor
Magazine explodes on DD Paul Jones
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Braine

(in reply to PaxMondo)
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/21/2012 8:05:18 PM   
obvert


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quote:

You don't need kamis IMO. Just lots of planes.


Thanks, Captain. I agree. But the kamis might be useful for that one big shot at a bunch of CVs, and of course having them available also means that even when attacking normally, some guys dive into the ship if hit by AA.

----------------------------------------

Torsten sent back the turn. Exciting! Now I'll get to see if part of the KB can make it.

Details soon.

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/21/2012 10:25:01 PM >

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Post #: 73
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/21/2012 10:07:32 PM   
obvert


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9 December 1941
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

This was an odd. turn. Not sure why yet, but he didn't go after the rest of the KB, and none of the ships in the same hex, including the SCTF from the KB, engaged each other. The only thing I can think of is that everything was out of ammo and he didn't want to push it and lose ships for no gain. I still think he could have made it pretty difficult for me for one more turn with DDs that hadn't yet engaged.

I won't say I'm not relieved, though!



subs: Lots of contacts around PH and in the DEI.

I-8 hits DD Hull with one fish, leaving the DD with heavy fires, heavy damage. She had taken 3 shell hits yesterday in surface combat and should go down now.

I-123 hit AS Holland with one fish near Taytay.

RO-63 took out xAP Hugh L. Scott near Nikunau.

I-154 and I-165 each take out a Dutch CM.

Most interestingly, I-169 encountered CA Salt Lake City and several DDs 3 hexes to the West of PH. Is this ship with Enterprise to start? If so the Big E likely is back in the barn.

Pacific: The KB retreats North with no problem. Zuikaku's fires are now in the 80's, and even though the major damage is mild, the fires should put this ship in serious jeopardy tomorrow. The Kagero will sink tomorrow for sure. So that makes the total ships lost in the failed Day 2 attack at 2 (likely 3) CVs and 2 DDs so far. The Abukuma did shake off the TFs near it and is running North at cruise speed with some damage as well.

The KB is reunited into one TF and will retire to the NW still on full alert at cruise speed.

It is believed the IJN sunk 1 BB, 1 CL, and 4 DDs in return. Nothing for the loss of half of the KB of course.

No sight of the Enterprise, which is most likely heading back to PH to heal up torpedo damage.

Cent Pac: Pensacola came after the Tarawa invasion. I sent two old DDs after it and during the night they gave it two shell hits and DD Yunagi took one in return. Shimazui, T. did cross the T, so it was worth a try if a torp had been landed successfully. The rest of the TF was disbanded and will start out again tomorrow back North.

Ocean and Nauru show Allied TFs. Not sure if they are combat or just removing the units here.

China: In Takao B-17s attacked the port and droped a 500lb present on TK Tonan Maru. That doesn't make me happy, but it was good that only this ship was injured. All TKs and other valuable commodities will move to Shanghai.

Some interesting Chinese moves are beginning to happen as the IJA waits. A screen shot will come soon.

Malaya: Landings continue. No sub attacks yet. Many are spotted though. Very little happening in the air. Singapore is vacant of aircraft. I like that, but I'm wary. No sweeps yet until all troops and supply are landed at least.

An AM was sunk at Singapore by Netties, and an ML ran into a mine.

PI: The CL Nagara TF set up near Taytay and met several 1 ship TFs fleeing Manila. This TF sank xAP Neptuna, DD Pope, AS Otus and xAK Si Kiang. Unfortunately they wasted a lot of ammo on these singletons. The Si Kiang took 33 shells alone!

Aparri and Vigan are now functioning airbases.

PTs are coming over to play. I put all merchies in the port disbanded and kept a few SCTFs at Vigan and at Appari. I left the TFs to unload at Aparri as this seems less in danger tomorrow.

DEI: The Marblehead and the Boise both went for the Sorong TF. I split it and ran parts to different ports after landing everything yesterday. The Marblehead found only 3 AKL and a PB still there to unload supply, and it put 4 shells into xAKL Hanakawa Maru. The Boise showed up later and sank the rest of these ships as they were on their way to Wolei.

An Air Fleet HQ is loading at Takao to head to Babeldaob and eventually Kendari or Ambon.


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

This will most likely be the last day of the Zuikaku. All pilots have been transferred to the reserve pool (aboard the accompanying DD presumably) as the fire crews continue to battle the flames to no avail.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/21/2012 10:28:42 PM >

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/21/2012 11:05:12 PM   
Cribtop


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Hats off to you for your fighting spirit, Obvert. I'll be watching and chiming in as you continue.

_____________________________


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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/22/2012 5:39:32 AM   
koniu

 

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I am really sad that so beautiful ship like Zuikaku will go down.

One is sure, this AAR is must read for me. It is going to be interesting game

< Message edited by koniu -- 5/22/2012 6:09:12 AM >


_____________________________

"Only the Dead Have Seen the End of War"

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/22/2012 10:20:21 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Hats off to you for your fighting spirit, Obvert. I'll be watching and chiming in as you continue.


Thanks. I will be very open to all ideas as to how this will change the balance.

(in reply to Cribtop)
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/22/2012 4:31:54 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Good news on not loosing the rest! :)

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 78
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/22/2012 5:46:16 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
Thanks. I will be very open to all ideas as to how this will change the balance.


1. You must take Palembang. Right now. That should be your only priority right now. Knowing Historiker, he is probably doing his utmost to reinforce the base. Drop everything else. Take Palembang no later than Dec 15th.

2. See 1. When you have achieved 1, then take Singapore and Manila and the rest of the NEI. All of these targets are inside Betty and Zero range, so you dont need any CVs anyway.

3. Forget India and Australia. Forget the Aleutians and the South Pacific. You now have a defensive navy only. That means no offensive operations outside land-based aircover. Can you take Wake inside 2-3 days? If not, forget Wake. Lexington is probably already there. Historiker will most probably move to reinforce Wake. Use this. Send all your subs to wake. Send DD-raiders to Wake. DONT send CVs or capital ships. He will be looking for that, and he will have 1-3 CVs protecting it together with land based air inside one week.

4. Your only offensive option left is China. That is where you will find your HI and your resources. Ok, the USSR is a theoretical target, but there is nothing there, except thousands of AVs and almost no industry. This is actually not too bad, because you can take China, or as much of it as you want.

5. China means that the Burma road must be closed as soon as possible. Rangoon is a prime target, hit it hard and hit it often. Move your 9 Tojos to the Thai lvl 2 airfield close to Rangoon, sweep from there with Zeros and Tojos. Sweep with Oscars and Zeros from Bangkok. He probably has the AVG defending Rangoon, so beware. After that, bomb the port to bits. Drop paratroopers on all the bases along the railline between Rangoon and China.

6. Move what you can of your IJAAF bombers from Kwangtung to China. Start attacking airfields all over China. It will cost supplies to repair. Kill at least 350 Chinese squads per month, I dont care how.

7. He will be looking for more naval victories now. Put CAs at Truk, Babeldaop, Saipan. He will be agressive and full of himself. Use that. Expect raids and bold moves. Use his expectations against him. He will expect invasions at Port Moresby and Darwin eventually. That means he will gravitate ships and airunits there. You can use this information.

8. Focus on your industry. Look at your aircraft. Focus research on the Tojo and the Helen. After that the N1K1.

Basically the game has changed with the loss of the KB already. You might save 3 CVs, but they will be in dock for weeks. Forget the KB for the next months. And that is ok, because for the next two months you need to focus on Palembang, Java, Singapore, Burma anyway. You dont need CVs for that. In March/April, start thinking about new ways to use the KB. His CVs will be around Wake or Darwin or Port Moresby...so use the KB to raid the west coast and the SLOCs between PH and the US instead. I managed to catch an entire division at sea this way.

Use the loss of the KB to your advantage. I know this sounds weird, but see it like this. You dont need the KB for your main objectives (NEI) and you dont need the KB for your short to mid-range goals (NEI and China). By the time you need CVs for defensive operations, you will have new ones. At least enough CVs for the usual death-ride of the IJN. So, you dont need the KB anyway. At the same time, this victory has probably gone into Historikers head. He thinks he has struck a decisive blow that will win the war two years early. He is probably planning right now how fast he can defeat you, and he probably will try to achieve a super-fast victory over Japan. He will have been reading Nemos old AARs. He is (most likely) building a fortress Palembang, he is most likely planning offensive operations in the CentPac. You can use this. Play into this. Send an invasion force right into his CV trap at Wake using old transports and expendable troops. You lose nothing, he will be reinforced in his opinion that he is a master strategist. Send another invasion force right into his waiting SCTFs at Adak Island. Watch it being destroyed and know that Historiker takes this as more evidence of his brilliance. Play into his ego. Feed his missconceptions. Eventually he will be careless, then its your time.

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 79
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/22/2012 9:23:49 PM   
obvert


Posts: 7516
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Firstly, thank you. This is a great list for any Japanese player to consider in my opinion. There is some timely advice here. Some of it I may not be able to accomplish. A lot of it I'll sift around and test slowly as I go.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

1. You must take Palembang. Right now. That should be your only priority right now. Knowing Historiker, he is probably doing his utmost to reinforce the base. Drop everything else. Take Palembang no later than Dec 15th.


The 21st division is prepping in Shanghai for Palembang. It will begin loading tomorrow. I won't get there by the 15th. Air cover will need to be set up in Kuching or Singkawang first. Force Z is still near, so this will have to be a quick and well guarded operation. The Ryujo is headed for the HI to upgrade and form up a Mini-KB.

I'm aiming for the 20-25th for Palembang. The Mini-KB will support this landing from a safe distance as well once it returns to the DEI.

Although I need to be quick, I also must be solid to avoid needless loss of forces, especially troops. There may be some feint operations in the area to see how strong his reaction will be. I'm thinking of sending a group of AKLs in the direction of Palembang before the main force, and directed at Pontiniak. If he hits it hard, then I'll know what is there. If not, I'll have a small unit on it to take Pontiniak.

quote:


2. See 1. When you have achieved 1, then take Singapore and Manila and the rest of the NEI. All of these targets are inside Betty and Zero range, so you dont need any CVs anyway.


Singapore is priority 2 after Palembang. Then Burma. The PI will be slow unless he gives something away.

quote:


3. Forget India and Australia. Forget the Aleutians and the South Pacific. You now have a defensive navy only. That means no offensive operations outside land-based aircover. Can you take Wake inside 2-3 days? If not, forget Wake. Lexington is probably already there. Historiker will most probably move to reinforce Wake. Use this. Send all your subs to wake. Send DD-raiders to Wake. DONT send CVs or capital ships. He will be looking for that, and he will have 1-3 CVs protecting it together with land based air inside one week.


Enterprise took 1 torp. She'll need some time in the yard. Lex is my worry. I'm sending a fleet of Glen subs toward Wake to meet the group of RO subs near there now.

I have the one SNLF prepped for Wake plus the Naval Guard set for Makin now prepping for Wake at Eneweitok. There is the SCTF plus two AMCs that can form a large Fast Transport to Wake to take it within 3 days. I feel with Enterprise not available for at least a week and more likely longer, I will wait and search with subs before the Wake invasion goes. I'll also send a few AMc up there as pickets to complement the subs. If there's no sighting I'll dash in. The two units usually take Wake in one shot, and if the TF is at flank speed, if the CV isn't sitting on top of it, these ships should get in quickly enough. If he does get in there and take out some old CLs and DDs, then as you point out later, it's something else to inflate the confidence, (but I'll have Wake).

Anyone please let me know if this plan seems suspect. I haven't looked at the starting position of Lex in a while, and I'm not sure where she could be now.

quote:


4. Your only offensive option left is China. That is where you will find your HI and your resources. Ok, the USSR is a theoretical target, but there is nothing there, except thousands of AVs and almost no industry. This is actually not too bad, because you can take China, or as much of it as you want.


China seems to be my mission. I've got some experience there, but PPs are running scarce already and I've still got several air groups to buy back before I can take out all of the cheap Manchurian armor.

He looks to be slightly offensive minded so far in China. That's fine by me. Once I get some 2Es in there, I'll be able to begin freezing these operations.

quote:


5. China means that the Burma road must be closed as soon as possible. Rangoon is a prime target, hit it hard and hit it often. Move your 9 Tojos to the Thai lvl 2 airfield close to Rangoon, sweep from there with Zeros and Tojos. Sweep with Oscars and Zeros from Bangkok. He probably has the AVG defending Rangoon, so beware. After that, bomb the port to bits. Drop paratroopers on all the bases along the railline between Rangoon and China.


He'll be on the watch for early paradrops (thanks to your game with CR). I can use Thai units there, and once the armor in Malaya has pushed the British back, I'll send them to Burma. Once Singapore falls, Burma will see a lot of troops.

I'll not bomb Rangoon until I have overwhelming force in sweeps. After about a week the 3rd Ku S-1 from the PI area will move over there and begin reducing the AVG with whatever Oscars I can scrounge up. I hadn't thought of the Tojos. It's just such a small unit. I'll give that a shot. I'll see how that goes and then consider the paradrops.

quote:


6. Move what you can of your IJAAF bombers from Kwangtung to China. Start attacking airfields all over China. It will cost supplies to repair. Kill at least 350 Chinese squads per month, I dont care how.


This I know I can do. After a few weeks of upgrading bombing will be non-stop here.

This time around I plan to encircle and destroy Chinese troops if possible instead of pushing them back until they are shells. Even if they come back stronger, it's more mouths to feed and less experienced troops. Plus it's the opposite of what I was doing in my last game, so it might surprise him a bit in spots.

quote:


7. He will be looking for more naval victories now. Put CAs at Truk, Babeldaop, Saipan. He will be agressive and full of himself. Use that. Expect raids and bold moves. Use his expectations against him. He will expect invasions at Port Moresby and Darwin eventually. That means he will gravitate ships and airunits there. You can use this information.


CAs are at Babeldaob already. They're on the way to Truk. Once a few units are freed from the first wave of invasions of the PI and the devouring of fleeing ships, they'll heavily defend the second wave PI invasions.

quote:


8. Focus on your industry. Look at your aircraft. Focus research on the Tojo and the Helen. After that the N1K1.


I've already bumped Tojo and Helen Ia up quite a lot. Topped up mid-game zero research through the A6M3 and Rufe channels. I'll push the N1K1 as I haven't topped that up yet.

quote:


Basically the game has changed with the loss of the KB already. You might save 3 CVs, but they will be in dock for weeks. Forget the KB for the next months. And that is ok, because for the next two months you need to focus on Palembang, Java, Singapore, Burma anyway. You dont need CVs for that. In March/April, start thinking about new ways to use the KB. His CVs will be around Wake or Darwin or Port Moresby...so use the KB to raid the west coast and the SLOCs between PH and the US instead. I managed to catch an entire division at sea this way.

Use the loss of the KB to your advantage. I know this sounds weird, but see it like this. You dont need the KB for your main objectives (NEI) and you dont need the KB for your short to mid-range goals (NEI and China). By the time you need CVs for defensive operations, you will have new ones. At least enough CVs for the usual death-ride of the IJN. So, you dont need the KB anyway. At the same time, this victory has probably gone into Historikers head. He thinks he has struck a decisive blow that will win the war two years early. He is probably planning right now how fast he can defeat you, and he probably will try to achieve a super-fast victory over Japan. He will have been reading Nemos old AARs. He is (most likely) building a fortress Palembang, he is most likely planning offensive operations in the CentPac. You can use this. Play into this. Send an invasion force right into his CV trap at Wake using old transports and expendable troops. You lose nothing, he will be reinforced in his opinion that he is a master strategist. Send another invasion force right into his waiting SCTFs at Adak Island. Watch it being destroyed and know that Historiker takes this as more evidence of his brilliance. Play into his ego. Feed his missconceptions. Eventually he will be careless, then its your time.


Some great thoughts here. Torsten has already mentioned he think this won't likely go far past mid-43. With a little luck and lots of planning and deviousness, I also feel it could go a good deal longer.

The psychology will be fun to work with. I will need a lot of help on that end. Some of your suggestions are a great start. Sending forces in to be decimated as a goal will be new to me, and I'll start slowly with that one. Having gone almost a year ahead in my other PBEM will surely help me figure out what is possible in some areas without the KB to buffer them.

This will be a fun game. The only thing I know for sure is that it will change how I look at this game and test me in ways I haven't been pushed before. Thanks for the help, the challenges, and any other comments. Keep it coming.


(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 80
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/22/2012 10:17:04 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 7310
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline
Start using your Class C subs with midgets in two separate groups along with a Glen or two for recon to start showing up at various ports. The midgets don't have to be launched from the actual base, but one hex away. More a nuisance than anything else, but force him to keep extra assets in his major ports to deal with them.

You have the two AMCs down in the South Pacific as raiders. Try to send in another two. The Allies are short of adequate escorts for the first 6 months. They may be able to cause more damage than they are worth.

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 81
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 1:33:48 AM   
Captain Cruft


Posts: 3652
Joined: 3/17/2004
From: England
Status: offline
Blimey what a load of panic.

I would love to be in this position, not having to think about offense is bliss.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 82
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 10:39:30 AM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


Posts: 2700
Joined: 10/13/2000
Status: offline
Palembang - not good enough.

Let me quote Top Gun here. "Bullsh-t ten minutes, this thing will be over in two". You dont need a division (yet) and if you wait two weeks one division will not be enough. You have plenty of units heading towards Malaya or in French Indo-Chine, use them. Forget prep, you dont need it. Forget Force Z, you have BBs and CAs to handle them. Forget air-threat from Singapore, you have enough fighters and bombers to supress Singapore or CAP your fleet.

Let me be blunt. You must take Palembang before Dec 15th with what you have in theater now. You dont have the luxury of waiting for a mini-KB or a division from Shanghai. If an opponent builds a fortress at Palembang, the defence grows exponentially for the first two weeks. He flies in about 25 AV every day, he will ship in dutch regiments of another 100 AV, then the Indian brigades arrive and after that the 18th UK.

In two weeks you will be facing 600 AV behind lvl3 forts in a x3 swamp hex. On top of that you will face CVs, Force Z and 30-40 torpedo bombers.

Get troops on the ground there now. As in "before Dec 10th". Cant land at Palembang, land at Djambi. Afraid of Singapore airunits? Take whatever losses you need. All units are expendable here because if you fail to take Palembang inside two weeks you have lost the game.

You dont need Bettys at Singkawang, you need AVs on Sumatra. You cannot wait because every day shifts the balance against you and in a couple of weeks you will need 3 divisions to take P and when you take it it will be 50-80% damaged.

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Mac Linehan)
Post #: 83
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 3:31:06 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


Posts: 2700
Joined: 10/13/2000
Status: offline
Heh, notice how he put a link to his AAR in his sig bragging about his achievements? This is very good info about your opponent. Same with the email conversation you were refering to, he thinks he can win this in 43? Ok.

It looks like he thinks highly of himself, and judging by his bragging he also believe there is some sort of status involved in the game and the AARs. He will be looking for bragging rights then, and he will be trying to impress the forum with his cleverness and tactical brilliance. That will influence how he plays, and what sort of operations he will be trying. Expect very agressive counterattacks in a couple of months. My guess would be Hokkaido or Saipan. Iwo Jima perhaps?

Another factor to consider is how well a player understands and can handle the game engine. Here I am not sure what level he is on, there are some signs that he knows enough to handle himself ok (staggered CAP over Manila for example) and there are other signs that he does not. It is quite clear however that he will do his utmost to capitalize on the game-engine within the bounds of your HRs. Look at the B17s at naval attack at 5k. Who came up with the HR that invasions are allowed in hexes without bases or dots? Him? If it was him, then he is planning something with that.



_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 84
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 3:43:41 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


Posts: 2700
Joined: 10/13/2000
Status: offline
As for you:

1) Stop sending Bettys against land-targets. Make sure you dont get caught in a CAP-trap. That means stand them down unless/until you know what you will be attacking and where. You cannot afford to lose your Betty/Nell pilots now. You dont need them right now anyway, Force Z might be around Singkawang, but I doubt it. Even if they are there, you will not launch against them at that range. There is much more risk of a stupid launch against some ship at Singapore that gets caught in a Buffalo CAP.

2) Sweep Manila, Singapore, Rangoon as soon as possible. Use multi-layered sweeps. Send in the Oscars at 8k and the Zeros at 13k, and Tojos at 20. You need to do this right away because you need to start atritting his airforce without being bound by escorting bombers.

3) Set up CAP-traps of your own. Create a TF consisting of 4 DDs, move the TF into range of Singapore (say 4 hexes off Singapore). Have Zeros from Kuching or Soc Trang LRCAP the DD-TF at 8k. Remember you need to be inside normal range (with or without drop tanks) so find the sweet spot and catch his Vildebeest and Swordfish.

4) Use the CVL/CVEs you have as enemy bomber killers. Remove Vals and Kates, transfer more Zero units to these CVE/CVLs. Set the Zeros on 100% CAP, 8k altitude and range 0. That means alot of your Zeros will be in the air to meet the enemy bombers and none will be out of position. Altitude is key here, if you patrol too high or too low, you will lose interception time. Look at how he flew his bombers.. 5k or 8k. That means you set your patrol altitude to that altitude or 1k higher.

5) Set up small SCTFs around CLs and DDs and start raiding Palembang right now. I mean right now. Start sending SCTFs to Oosthaven too. You need to own the sea-lanes to Palembang, and you need to own them now. Where are your subs in the NEI? They should be around Palembang, Oosthaven and that other base on the western side of Sumatra right across from Palembang.


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 85
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 4:15:10 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 15181
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Who came up with the HR that invasions are allowed in hexes without bases or dots? Him? If it was him, then he is planning something with that.


Not necessarily. I don't know about him, but many of us believe that non-base invasions are entirely cool and the developers confirmed that they accounted for them. I fully support an 'invade anywhere you can land' HR but I have yet to actually do one in PBM, and none of my opponents has done one against me to date either.

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 86
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 4:23:35 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


Posts: 2700
Joined: 10/13/2000
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Not necessarily. I don't know about him, but many of us believe that non-base invasions are entirely cool and the developers confirmed that they accounted for them. I fully support an 'invade anywhere you can land' HR but I have yet to actually do one in PBM, and none of my opponents has done one against me to date either.


My point is you dont ask for it unless you plan to use it.


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 87
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 4:30:54 PM   
obvert


Posts: 7516
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

Let me be blunt. You must take Palembang before Dec 15th with what you have in theater now. You dont have the luxury of waiting for a mini-KB or a division from Shanghai. If an opponent builds a fortress at Palembang, the defence grows exponentially for the first two weeks. He flies in about 25 AV every day, he will ship in dutch regiments of another 100 AV, then the Indian brigades arrive and after that the 18th UK.

In two weeks you will be facing 600 AV behind lvl3 forts in a x3 swamp hex. On top of that you will face CVs, Force Z and 30-40 torpedo bombers.

Get troops on the ground there now. As in "before Dec 10th". Cant land at Palembang, land at Djambi. Afraid of Singapore airunits? Take whatever losses you need. All units are expendable here because if you fail to take Palembang inside two weeks you have lost the game.

You dont need Bettys at Singkawang, you need AVs on Sumatra. You cannot wait because every day shifts the balance against you and in a couple of weeks you will need 3 divisions to take P and when you take it it will be 50-80% damaged.


I hear the urgency. I'm not sure it's game over even if he is building a fortress there. Yes, the oil has a better chance of being ruined. But that's exactly why I would like to get a full division there. More chance for a quick resolution. Without the KB it's tougher to isolate Sumatra, but the Japanese can bring more in 42 if we want to. If he commits fully to it, I'll bring enough to take it and wipe out whatever he has there.

I'll look through what's in theatre. I'm not sure I can scrape up more than the large Brigade scheduled for the PI, and that means I'm short there, but Palembang is more critical. It would still be 5-7 days or so until it got there at the earliest. But that's around the December 15th window.

You might be right about this, and at least are right that the possibility is there, but I think he may be looking for something he really believes he can hold. Java or Timor.

quote:

It looks like he thinks highly of himself, and judging by his bragging he also believe there is some sort of status involved in the game and the AARs. He will be looking for bragging rights then, and he will be trying to impress the forum with his cleverness and tactical brilliance. That will influence how he plays, and what sort of operations he will be trying. Expect very agressive counterattacks in a couple of months. My guess would be Hokkaido or Saipan. Iwo Jima perhaps?

Another factor to consider is how well a player understands and can handle the game engine. Here I am not sure what level he is on, there are some signs that he knows enough to handle himself ok (staggered CAP over Manila for example) and there are other signs that he does not. It is quite clear however that he will do his utmost to capitalize on the game-engine within the bounds of your HRs. Look at the B17s at naval attack at 5k. Who came up with the HR that invasions are allowed in hexes without bases or dots? Him? If it was him, then he is planning something with that.


Most of his bravado is in good fun. I take it this way at least. He may do just what you suggest though, and I will do my best to feed this need to make the spectacular play.

From what I can tell he does understand the engine well enough. Most likely better than I do, although mistakes teach us the most in my opinion, and I've made a few in my three PBEMs so far. He did ask for no restrictions on 4E naval but with the caveat that we could look at it again if it seemed too powerful. He also suggested the landing in hexes without dots or bases. I think that could be useful occasionally, but might be unpredictable and leave him with stranded troops highly disrupted as well.

quote:

As for you:

1) Stop sending Bettys against land-targets. Make sure you dont get caught in a CAP-trap. That means stand them down unless/until you know what you will be attacking and where. You cannot afford to lose your Betty/Nell pilots now. You dont need them right now anyway, Force Z might be around Singkawang, but I doubt it. Even if they are there, you will not launch against them at that range. There is much more risk of a stupid launch against some ship at Singapore that gets caught in a Buffalo CAP.


Already done. Even the Bettys turn 2 at Manilla were a mistake. A costly one. I will be very careful from now on to try and sweep heavily at any one spot. I will stand down Netties from Saigon to a naval and sub search and just keep them looking but not attacking until they are needed for specific actions.

quote:

2) Sweep Manila, Singapore, Rangoon as soon as possible. Use multi-layered sweeps. Send in the Oscars at 8k and the Zeros at 13k, and Tojos at 20. You need to do this right away because you need to start atritting his airforce without being bound by escorting bombers.


Yep. Zeros will go for a week or so until Manila is ground down. Then Rangoon. Singers has no fighters now. We'll have to see where those went. Some might go to Port Blair which I also think he will try to hold and I will try to para-drop if possible.

quote:

3) Set up CAP-traps of your own. Create a TF consisting of 4 DDs, move the TF into range of Singapore (say 4 hexes off Singapore). Have Zeros from Kuching or Soc Trang LRCAP the DD-TF at 8k. Remember you need to be inside normal range (with or without drop tanks) so find the sweet spot and catch his Vildebeest and Swordfish.


Great idea. I'll try this from Soc Trang now and later once I have Kuching/Singkawang.

quote:

4) Use the CVL/CVEs you have as enemy bomber killers. Remove Vals and Kates, transfer more Zero units to these CVE/CVLs. Set the Zeros on 100% CAP, 8k altitude and range 0. That means alot of your Zeros will be in the air to meet the enemy bombers and none will be out of position. Altitude is key here, if you patrol too high or too low, you will lose interception time. Look at how he flew his bombers.. 5k or 8k. That means you set your patrol altitude to that altitude or 1k higher.


Exactly my intention RE the Mini-KB. No need for strikes in the DEI now. Just protection and killing planes. They're all getting upgrades done, finding escorts, and will be back in theatre within 7 days.

quote:

5) Set up small SCTFs around CLs and DDs and start raiding Palembang right now. I mean right now. Start sending SCTFs to Oosthaven too. You need to own the sea-lanes to Palembang, and you need to own them now. Where are your subs in the NEI? They should be around Palembang, Oosthaven and that other base on the western side of Sumatra right across from Palembang.


ALL IJN subs in the area are near Palembang or in the channel near Biliton and Pontiniak. I'm ready to break up some of the landing TFs on Malaya and will start sending in some raiders right away. I'd like to knock off Kuching in the next few days to get an airfield to also get a CAP over these ships near Palembang.

Thanks for all of the particular suggestions. It helps to keep it clear as I try to stay focused on the immediate goals after such a difficult start.

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/23/2012 4:32:14 PM >

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 88
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 4:35:59 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 15181
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Not necessarily. I don't know about him, but many of us believe that non-base invasions are entirely cool and the developers confirmed that they accounted for them. I fully support an 'invade anywhere you can land' HR but I have yet to actually do one in PBM, and none of my opponents has done one against me to date either.


My point is you dont ask for it unless you plan to use it.


My point is that is wrong in this case.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 5/23/2012 4:36:17 PM >

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 89
RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) - 5/23/2012 6:13:35 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


Posts: 2700
Joined: 10/13/2000
Status: offline
He asks for it becaue he is not planning to use it. Ok, but that doesnt make sense.

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 90
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