From: Southern California
North Soviet Zone is 7/11 chance of mud next turn, Central is 9/11, and South is 10/11.
If you hug him and do what you did on turn 17, chances are good that you can put him right back in a logistical bind. Or he could get lucky again.
Don't sweat losing Sevastopol. It's a sideshow. Just keep him on the other side of the Kerch straights. Losing Rostov, however, is a big deal, as is obviously Moscow.
Counterattack vigorously north of Moscow. Just grind him down, his panzers are exposed. They are likely fatigued and not in great shape supply wise.
I would send a good chunk of your reserves to Ryzan and rebuild Bryansk Front from that and start attacking there as well. Like in Kamil's game, this is one my favorite places to deploy cavalry come blizzard.
He's on a shoestring and running on fumes. He's not digging in. When this souffle collapses, you'll bounce back smartly, just hang in there.
WitE Alpha Tester