Hypothetical history...

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Erik Rutins
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Hypothetical history...

Post by Erik Rutins »

Consider this one. In March of 1905, during the Morocco Crisis, Germany declares a surprise war on France (and only France). What would have happened and how would it have changed the history of the 20th Century?

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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by nate25 »

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: nate25

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)
Warspite1

No I think the scenario is that the Germans only declare war on France - the question is then, does the UK come to the defence of France as per the Entente Cordiale, or does she say "you're on your own there sunshine"?
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by nate25 »

I think it's unlikely Britain would not have responded. Most of the world's powers were arranged against Wilhelm in this situation.

From a naval aspect, wouldn't Germany have been at even more of a disadvantage at this point than 1914?

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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: nate25

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)
Warspite1

No I think the scenario is that the Germans only declare war on France - the question is then, does the UK come to the defence of France as per the Entente Cordiale, or does she say "you're on your own there sunshine"?
Warspite1

If its the latter, then regardless of what happens during the current Moroccan crisis, the French / British relations would suffer a major hit - or worse may make Germany believe an attack on France (and a repeat of 1870) was in order there and then. I do not know enough about the strength of each army in 1905 to know if this is something the Germans would have seriously considered, but the German navy was nowhere near strong enough in terms of its re-armament program.
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RE: Hypothetical history...

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It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."
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RE: Hypothetical history...

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I don't know... I envision an earlier WW1 with a much weaker Kaiserliche Marine (at what stage would the U-Boot Programme be at?), and where was Germany at in terms of the Ottoman Empire at that time? Just the Austro-Hungarian Empire as a firm ally...

I think old Willy would have been crazy.
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RE: Hypothetical history...

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ORIGINAL: nate25

It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."
Warspite1

I think - admittedly using actions in 1914 as a guide - the US would not get involved, Italy and Spain was of little importance, but Russia most certainly was. The Triple Entente only came into force in 1907. Would Russia have assisted France if the UK didn't (I don't know the exact terms of the Entente Cordiale - did it bind one nation to come to the aid of another if attacked?). Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by Erik Rutins »

ORIGINAL: nate25
Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)

No, but Germany would only attack France in this scenario. What the British do in response is part of the question. How would the land war between Germany and France go if it started at this point? Who would realistically decide to and be able to intervene to possibly change the course of events?

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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by Orm »

Since there was no formal defence alliance between Britain and France 1905 I doubt that Britain would have assisted France. Germany was, after all, no threat to Brittain 1905.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entente_cordiale

Russia on the other hand is another story. I suspect they would have entered the war sided with France.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Russian_Alliance

Edit: Spelling.
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by Erik Rutins »

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

ORIGINAL: nate25
Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)

No, but Germany would only attack France in this scenario. What the British do in response is part of the question. How would the land war between Germany and France go if it started at this point? Who would realistically decide to and be able to intervene to possibly change the course of events?

Regards,

- Erik
Warspite1

Sounds like ideas for a game? [;)]
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by nate25 »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: nate25

It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."
Warspite1

I think - admittedly using actions in 1914 as a guide - the US would not get involved, Italy and Spain was of little importance, but Russia most certainly was. The Triple Entente only came into force in 1907. Would Russia have assisted France if the UK didn't (I don't know the exact terms of the Entente Cordiale - did it bind one nation to come to the aid of another if attacked?). Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?


I don't think it was binding from a British point of view.

Not sure of the French.
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik
Warspite1

The key to this is the relative state of the armies in 1905. Germany did not go to war over Morocco and so this may tell us something. We need an army expert!

However, given the events of 1870 and 1914, I think it is fair to assume that the German army on its own could defeat that of the French.

That being the case, and the British and Russians would have thought that too - what would they do and why? Really interesting scenario Erik.....
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by nate25 »

ORIGINAL: Orm

Since there was no formal defence alliance between Britain and France 1905 I doubt that Britain would have assisted France. Gewrmany was, after all, no threat to Brittain 1905.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entente_cordiale

Russia on the other hand is another story. I suspect they would have entered the war sided with France.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Russian_Alliance


I don't know about that... didn't Jackie Fisher push for pre-emptive strikes against the German Navy more than once?


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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by nate25 »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik
Warspite1

The key to this is the relative state of the armies in 1905. Germany did not go to war over Morocco and so this may tell us something. We need an army expert!

However, given the events of 1870 and 1914, I think it is fair to assume that the German army on its own could defeat that of the French.

That being the case, and the British and Russians would have thought that too - what would they do and why? Really interesting scenario Erik.....

I doubt Nicky would have wanted to face a victorious German army on his front stoop after a German march into Paris, 1905 defeat or no.
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by warspite1 »

Why didn't they intervene in 1870 then?
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by doomtrader »

Another uprising in Poland supported by the France?

What would be the goal of such conflict? What would Germans want to achieve?


Also Wiki claims, that the Brits promised to help France in case of German aggression, so not really 1:1 in my opinion.
It might ends as WW1 but a little bit closer to Paris and without involving Belgium.
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by nate25 »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Why didn't they intervene in 1870 then?

France had no treaty with Russia at this point. Bismarck was seeing to that.
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RE: Hypothetical history...

Post by nate25 »

It's all interesting, this scenario.

And with most of the ruling families of Germany, Russia, and Britain (and some smaller countries as well)all inter-related, it's not too much of a stretch they could have faced a lonely France.

Read about some of the correspondence b/t Nicky and Willy right before WW1. They were both waffling back and forth.
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