Matrix Games

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)

Warspite1

No I think the scenario is that the Germans only declare war on France - the question is then, does the UK come to the defence of France as per the Entente Cordiale, or does she say "you're on your own there sunshine"?

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25
Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25
Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)

No, but Germany would only attack France in this scenario. What the British do in response is part of the question. How would the land war between Germany and France go if it started at this point? Who would realistically decide to and be able to intervene to possibly change the course of events?

Regards,

- Erik

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."

Warspite1

I think - admittedly using actions in 1914 as a guide - the US would not get involved, Italy and Spain was of little importance, but Russia most certainly was. The Triple Entente only came into force in 1907. Would Russia have assisted France if the UK didn't (I don't know the exact terms of the Entente Cordiale - did it bind one nation to come to the aid of another if attacked?). Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik

quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Since there was no formal defence alliance between Britain and France 1905 I doubt that Britain would have assisted France. Gewrmany was, after all, no threat to Brittain 1905.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entente_cordiale

Russia on the other hand is another story. I suspect they would have entered the war sided with France.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Russian_Alliance

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?

Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik

Warspite1

The key to this is the relative state of the armies in 1905. Germany did not go to war over Morocco and so this may tell us something. We need an army expert!

However, given the events of 1870 and 1914, I think it is fair to assume that the German army on its own could defeat that of the French.

That being the case, and the British and Russians would have thought that too - what would they do and why? Really interesting scenario Erik.....

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Why didn't they intervene in 1870 then?

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

Regardless of the 1905 defeat, and whether or not they would have backed France in this hypothetical war, the Russians would not have been a "non-issue".

The Romanovs were still firmly in power at this point, civil unrest or not. Nicholas' father, Alexander, had been dealing with this level of unrest since HIS coronation (it caused his death).

They still would have been a major consideration.

quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

How would Germany counter a blockade by the RN, esp. in 1905? Don't you see that as a British response to a prolonged German stay in France? Let alone Germany trying to seize
colonial possessions she can't support from the sea.

Or am I wrong in your opinion?

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

Wouldn't the deciding feature be the German execution of the Schlieffen Plan ? As I recall they were very committed to it as a knock out blow against France. It essentially meant a movement through Belguim. I suspect the UK was very committed to Belgian neutrality and a balance of power in Europe, in which case the UK would have been in the fight very much as they were later.