sank submarines quite well -->(only problem was there were so few emilies)
Uh, no, actually, it did not sink submarines quite well. In point of fact, there were no documented submarine kills solely by H8Ks as, for example, there were by PBYs.
torpedoes --> never had the chance to prove itself, but if you fire 4 torpedoes at a time and your hull can survive 37mm rounds, you will sink plenty
In general, H8Ks could not survive multiple 37mm hits. Anything large enough with enough space however can survive hits on noncritical systems. H8Ks did not have *engine fire extinguishers" and the *8* small wing tanks were both unprotected and lacked extinguishers. That is why they were not a challenge for single and paired off F4Fs and, in at least one documented instance, a B-24 (in the guise of a PB4Y), and in another instance, a PBY, were able to readily shoot them down. No one would argue that a PBY is a great interceptor, nor a PB4Y. In general, Emilies were Large Slow Targets by comparison with interceptors, and weakly armored and otherwise protected. Weak armor was certainly better than NO armor, but it was not remotely as durable as Allied 4E types. Even the Short Sunderland, after which the H8K was allegedly engineered, was a much tougher mule.
As to torpedoes. It would have been a lousy platform for delivering torpedoes. In that role, the PBY was likewise a lousy platform for delivering *anti-shipping* torpedoes, but there are at least two documented instances of the PBY obtaining torpedo hits when pressed into service in that role. That is vs. none for the H8K.
If the H8K had been any good at it, the Japanese probably would have tried it.
ordnance --> allied stuff was accurate because they came over by the thousand
Non-sequitur. Quantity in theater has nothing to do with effectiveness in combat. US .50cal was superior to Japanese 20mm, 7.6mm, and 12.5mm ordnance, for a variety of reasons. Generally they were better because of the greater cyclical rof and much greater velocity.
I think you're hanging a lot of hopes on a rumour of P-39s having trouble on one day shooting down one H8K. In the real world, in the waters of the South Pacific, USN fighters operating in singles and pairs had no difficulty shooting them down.
The idea that a bunch of H8Ks would form up and conduct an effective strategic bombing raid is objectively silly. They would never have survived any amount of air defense, and they were inherently less accurate for that role than any of the planes that actually attempted strategic bombing.
As I noted, if you want to know how they'd do in the role, think "Schweinfurt," triple the casualty rates among the bombers, and divide the "bombs striking with 1 km of target" by four, and you'll get it about right.
< Message edited by mdiehl -- 4/10/2012 10:00:21 PM >
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.
Didn't we have this conversation already?