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Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 12:53:13 AM   
Footslogger

 

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Had Yamamoto not been killed in 1943, would of been the possibilites on the outcome of the war?
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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 12:57:36 AM   
Torplexed


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

Had Yamamoto not been killed in 1943, would of been the possibilites on the outcome of the war?



None. The man who engineered the debacle at Midway and the attritional air war in the South Pacific that gutted Japan's air power probably wasn't going to come up with any miracles to turn the tide of the war.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 1:57:20 AM   
wdolson

 

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Yamamoto was sort of a bipolar strategist. Sometimes he was brilliant, other times he was terrible.

Throwing air power at the South Pacific was not as bad a decision as the whole Midway campaign. Up to that point, Japanese air power had proven to usually be superior to the Americans, so it was not unreasonable to believe that throwing more aircraft at the problem was not going to break the back of the Cactus Air Force and enable Japan to take back Guadalcanal. The US changed the calculus by learning from earlier mistakes and adjusting doctrine accordingly.

IMO, Midway was top to bottom a crazy idea.

Back to the original question, by early 1943 the die had been cast and Japan was certain to lose the war. From the start the only way the Allies would have lost is if they had lost the will to fight, but by 1943, that will was solidly set and it was obvious to anyone who understood American production abilities that the end was only a question of when.

Yamamoto may have pulled off a nasty surprise here or there to create to extra casualties, but ultimately, the war would most likely have gone down the path it did on pretty much the same timeline.

Bill

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 1:59:08 AM   
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Yamamoto would have been the worst commander in history... if IJN carriers were ambushed at pearl harbor and sunk

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 1:59:38 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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...though he was able to delay that by 6 months

really his worst move was (literally) pull the chair from under tojo at a staff meeting

bad IJN / IJA relations were a big part of the demise

also..if there was no pearl harbor, USN probably charges across the pacific (warplan orange)
and gets sunk by LBA torpedo planes

< Message edited by Commander Stormwolf -- 4/9/2012 2:00:42 AM >


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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 2:35:59 AM   
Footslogger

 

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So if Operation MO was an idiotic jester, why didn't the IJN just let Yamamoto, and his staff resign?

< Message edited by Footslogger -- 4/9/2012 2:36:14 AM >

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 2:47:36 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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MO was coral sea - capture of port moresby

and it was a decent idea, except the forces were not properly concetrated (typical of japanese offensives)

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 2:51:51 AM   
vontiger


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Would have been much more interesting if Yamamoto had used Midway as a diversion and placed all his carriers for the invasion of Port Moresby....

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 2:56:14 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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quote:

Would have been much more interesting if Yamamoto had used Midway as a diversion and placed all his carriers for the invasion of Port Moresby....


yep


but they still get sunk when he goes for New Caledonia

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 2:58:55 AM   
Historiker


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And a diversion with what? What carriers? Sending in the transports alone?

Coral sea was already happened. He should have decided to either go for a target with all power or not to go at all. A target not worth all of KB isn't worth any commitment at all.
His genius was the idea to combine one of the attrition tools for the decisive battle, the carriers, to one unit and let them act without the battleships. That, and maybe his descision to attack PH - which can be discussed...

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:00:32 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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also smarter to send the battleships and cruisers ahead of the carriers (like IJN did at santa cruz)


santa cruz is probably the best battle the IJN fought.. besides sinking prince of wales + repulse

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:04:47 AM   
Footslogger

 

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Since the IJN had six carriers and only two were used on Operation MO, what did the other four carriers do during this operation?

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:06:17 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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quote:

Since the IJN had six carriers and only two were used on Operation MO, what did the other four carriers do during this operation?


Another question is .. what was Zuikaku doing during Midway (and why did they separate zuiho and ryujo.. and where were the 4 seaplane carriers?)

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:07:46 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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yeah the waters around midway should have been covered with 100 jakes from the 4 seplane carriers..

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:09:27 AM   
vontiger


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.

< Message edited by vontiger -- 4/9/2012 3:10:46 AM >

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:11:14 AM   
vontiger


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Historiker

And a diversion with what? What carriers? Sending in the transports alone?


Coral sea was already happened. He should have decided to either go for a target with all power or not to go at all. A target not worth all of KB isn't worth any commitment at all.
His genius was the idea to combine one of the attrition tools for the decisive battle, the carriers, to one unit and let them act without the battleships. That, and maybe his descision to attack PH - which can be discussed...


Why did he need to do anything... the diversion was to say they were going to hit Midway... it kept the Enterprise and Hornet at PH. If he had then sent the KB to Coral Sea... The Americans would have lost the Yorktown and Lexington, Port Moresby would have been captured and from Cairns to Brisbane the AF and Ports would have been bombed... and it would have meant that the Americans/Australians would have had to attack and capture Port Moresby rather then skip it like they did Rabaul.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:25:05 AM   
Torplexed


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

Since the IJN had six carriers and only two were used on Operation MO, what did the other four carriers do during this operation?


They were in port in Japan being hurriedly refitted and replenished for the Midway Operation.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:25:43 AM   
ilovestrategy


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It would not have changed anything. By 1944 the US had a totally different navy in every concievable way. By 1943 most of the Jap old school pilots were dead along with the maintanence crews from the 4 lost carriers at Midway. Even with newly built carriers the skill of the old crews was gone. And having Essex class carriers rolling out of the dry docks, a first class logistics system and the worlds strongest country out for blood, Yamamato being alive would have made no difference.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:32:48 AM   
Historiker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vontiger

quote:

ORIGINAL: Historiker

And a diversion with what? What carriers? Sending in the transports alone?


Coral sea was already happened. He should have decided to either go for a target with all power or not to go at all. A target not worth all of KB isn't worth any commitment at all.
His genius was the idea to combine one of the attrition tools for the decisive battle, the carriers, to one unit and let them act without the battleships. That, and maybe his descision to attack PH - which can be discussed...


Why did he need to do anything... the diversion was to say they were going to hit Midway... it kept the Enterprise and Hornet at PH. If he had then sent the KB to Coral Sea... The Americans would have lost the Yorktown and Lexington, Port Moresby would have been captured and from Cairns to Brisbane the AF and Ports would have been bombed... and it would have meant that the Americans/Australians would have had to attack and capture Port Moresby rather then skip it like they did Rabaul.

And say that to whom? Sending a telegraph to Washington? Using undecrypted radio?
He was sure that he will surprise the US as he never anticipated the code to be broken. So there was no way to "say that".

Coral sea only ended this way because the IJHQ expected the two+one carrier to be more than enough and because the allied had the vague picture they won't meet the full KB. Sending the full KB would've brought them PM, but most likely no carriers. But sending full KB hasn't happened for good reason.

So that's fantasy

< Message edited by Historiker -- 4/9/2012 3:33:25 AM >


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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:47:34 AM   
PizzaMan


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What is exciting about all these theories, is that they can be tested in WitP-AE.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 4:20:02 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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would have been smarter to load H8K emilies onto kamikawa maru cargo ships..
...launch from 15 hexes away at pearl harbor and sink the CVs in port






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< Message edited by Commander Stormwolf -- 4/9/2012 4:21:43 AM >


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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 4:50:33 AM   
gradenko_2000

 

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By the time Midway happened, there were more US carriers in production than there were Japanese carriers afloat, in production and on the drawing board, combined. Yamamoto might have changed some things around that could have delayed the war, but he wasn't going to affect the final outcome in any significant manner.

As well, this discussion on force concentration and diversionary attacks and whatnot calls to mind the statement that there were only 2 kinds of operations for the IJN: Ones that were worth throwing all their carriers at, and ones that were worth zero carriers. They went to Coral Sea with two carriers, and because of that could only bring four to Midway.

< Message edited by gradenko_2000 -- 4/9/2012 4:52:18 AM >

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 4:54:21 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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remember any number of CV and BB can be sunk by LBA torpedoes if you have enough of them, and good escorts

Battle of Marianas would be different if you have 1000xA6M3a and 1000xH8K2 coming at the carriers

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 5:06:11 AM   
gradenko_2000

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf
remember any number of CV and BB can be sunk by LBA torpedoes if you have enough of them, and any kind of escorts

Fixed! WITP AE tells us if only the IJA has mustered up a hundred fighters, they could have sunk the Big Blue Fleet no problem, even if they were a hundred Nates with 30 exp pilots.

I kid, I kid ...

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 5:33:09 AM   
Treetop64


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Even Yamamoto himself knew that the long-term implications of a war with the United States were not in the Japanese favor, no matter what happened.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 7:49:05 AM   
Sredni

 

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Would the IJA have let him deviate from the real life course of the war to any great degree?

Would he have survived the politicking of the japanese command till the end of the war? Or would he have been expected to ride some ship to it's death in a futile delaying tactic at some point. Or he might have been "promoted" to obscurity where he couldn't effect anything important. I know the IJA was the true power in japan, would that have extended to ignoring or marginalizing or even eliminating someone like yamamoto?

And if he had lived to the end... I wonder if he would have suicided out, and if he hadn't I also wonder if he wouldn't have been convicted of war crimes by MacArthur and hung.

Really, Yamamoto didn't have very good odds of surviving the war in a number of different ways. But I don't think he could have changed the course of the war very much if only due to the massive difference in force levels.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 2:49:52 PM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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probably would have seen 20 sen toku submarines completed




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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:50:35 PM   
mike scholl 1

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

would have been smarter to load H8K emilies onto kamikawa maru cargo ships..
...launch from 15 hexes away at pearl harbor and sink the CVs in port




The historical Japanese weren't playing with PDU "on" and unlimited hindsight. There weren't 95 "Emily's" in all of Japan in June of 1942.

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:52:11 PM   
Historiker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

would have been smarter to load H8K emilies onto kamikawa maru cargo ships..
...launch from 15 hexes away at pearl harbor and sink the CVs in port




The historical Japanese weren't playing with PDU "on" and unlimited hindsight. There weren't 95 "Emily's" in all of Japan in June of 1942.

Who cares? He takes every chance to promote his fantasy...

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RE: Yamamoto... - 4/9/2012 3:55:14 PM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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isn't the entire game a fanasy?

and isn't the present IRL a fiction?

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