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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

 
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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/2/2012 10:23:58 AM   
Historiker


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no, none

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/2/2012 10:31:20 AM   
adsoul64


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No, the only areas that trigger additional reinforcements to be placed for the Allies are:

»» Northern India
»» New Zealand
»» Southern Australia
»» West Coast of North America south of Vancouver.

Guys, it's funny reading the two AAR of you

< Message edited by adsoul64 -- 5/2/2012 10:47:41 AM >

(in reply to Galahad78)
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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/2/2012 10:46:45 AM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I had better keep that base (Kunming) well garrisoned to prevent massed bomber attack followed by para assault.  It's also worth having a decent garrison of 150 AV or so in that last base in China on the Burma Road (begins with a P).



Paoshan

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 1:33:16 AM   
Canoerebel


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12/26/42
 
NoPac:  Japan takes Whittier and Cold Bay and lands at Dutch Harbor.

West Coast:  I evaluate it highly unlikely that Steve will invade the USA, but on the off-chance I continue to shift units around to protect resource centers against para attacks.  I think it much more likely that Steve would invade Canada and use the air bases for a strategic bombing campaign for strategic points.  The Allies have several hundred fighters on the continent and they'll remain there against such a possibility.  I divided 27th Div., bought out regiment, loaded Queen Elizabeth, and she'll set sail tonight for the high-speed run to Melbourne.  She should have time for at least two round trips.

CenPac and SoPac:  The Allies sortie several additional combat TFs and replenishment TFs, hoping to raid deep behind enemy lines.  Saratoga continues making south. Tarawa falls.

SWPac:  IJA 144th Regiment landing at Rabaul.

Eastern DEI:  Ent and York slide a bit to the SW of Timor.  Cocos Island garrison is complete.

China:  Looking for a chance to strike some lonely IJA divisions.

(in reply to castor troy)
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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 2:37:54 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I had better keep that base (Kunming) well garrisoned to prevent massed bomber attack followed by para assault.  It's also worth having a decent garrison of 150 AV or so in that last base in China on the Burma Road (begins with a P).



Paoshan

OK then - CR did get it right!

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 10:11:13 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/26/42
 
NoPac:  Japan takes Whittier and Cold Bay and lands at Dutch Harbor.



If he goes farther toward AK or Canada how do you anticipate matching this threat and over what timeline would you think of challenging these and other Northern conquests by Japan?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 2:46:32 PM   
Lomri

 

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I would humbly like to request screen shots of Alaska as his invasion progresses. It's just the kind of picture I've never seen in any AAR!

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 3:10:44 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'll post some later today after I get the next turn.  I think Steve will have everything signficiant up the chain except Kodiak and Anchorage.  Those are probably high-priority targets for him.

The defense of the West Coast of Canada and the USA will be complicated.  There is no way the Allies can take on the concentrated power of the KB, so I'm not planning direct opposition.  Instead, the Allies will try to probe deeply into CenPac using combat ships, replenishment TFs, and perhaps even lone carriers (if I continue to get good info of the exact whereabouts of enemy carriers).  The Allies would also increase efforts to hold Timor.

I do not think Japan will invade the continental United States.  I do think Steve might try to take Canadian airfields and then engage in a strategic bombing campaign.  From that standpoint, the Allies will have to maintain a large airforce in the USA - heavy bombers to hit enemy airfields and fighters to protect American strategic targets.

This is just one part of the big picture.  Steve's moves could also be a diversion while he organizes a major move on Australia or India, so I'm still working to attend to both of those targets, which are far more important than Alaska.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 4:19:00 PM   
Historiker


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How much strategic bombing can he do, after all? You have more than enough permanently restricted fighter units at the West Coast to deal with every bombing campaing, no?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 4:45:44 PM   
crsutton


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I concur. He might do it for a while but it is a long supply line and he will just lose too many bombers in the end. Allied factories will repair super fast anyways. He might steal a few VP but I just think it will cost him too much in the end. I think his real goal is just to build up a strong string of bases as he knows CR has a history of taking the northern route.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 5:00:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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I bet we'll see action against the continental United States.  I think there's a decent chance he'll invade Canada and engage in strategic bombing.  If not that, a carrier raid against West Coast shipping would be a good bet.

This really isn't a high pressure situation because the Allies have the means to counter these things and the assets are in place or show up here as reinforcements.  So I don't face the pressure of a blockade and trying to bring in troops and planes from far away, which are factors that contribut to making the defense of Oz and India so challenging. 

So I'd rather see Steve where he is (I think) than aiming hard for Oz.


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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 5:07:50 PM   
Walloc

 

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Well Historiker u have a number of restricted units withdrawing early on. After late feb u only got approx 2 restricted PGs left until later on.

Restricted u got:
14 PG withdraws july.
20 PG withdraws late feb
55 PG 1 squadron withdraw aug
55 PG 1 squadron withdraw 18 jan
54 PG withdraws 31 jan
1 PG withdraw 20 may

Non Restricted
51 PG
35 PG
55 PG 1 squadron
31 PG
18 PG 1 squadron
3 Marine squadrons, but with limited number of planes/reinforcement of planes.

And a couple of canadian squadrons.


Reinforcements Approx 3 PGs comming in first 52 days. All non restricted
Some Marines around day 90, but again planes the limiter here.

Real problem is as i see it, ok if u hafta have units on standby on west coast guarding against strikes, what u use for training purposes then. At leased it reduces ur possibilties.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 5:12:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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Near the start of the game, I switched most of my West Coast "training squadrons" to 30% CAP and 10% or 20% training, just in case of a KB raid.

I haven't done any testing yet, but I have noted (mainly in my game with Chez Da Jez) that this configuration does result in pretty decent training progress.  I'd need to make test comparisons to determine this more exactly, but for now I think it's possible to train and defend to a degree that I suspect is acceptible.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 5:18:53 PM   
Walloc

 

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Sorry if i didnt make it clear. Not saying its not possible. Im just saying with restricted units alone, if he is serious about it. Then i dont see 7 squadrons doing the job from 21 feb on as enough. But one do have alot of other units.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

< Message edited by Walloc -- 5/3/2012 5:23:34 PM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 7:30:12 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Isn´t the most limiting factor airframes and not squadrons?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 8:02:45 PM   
Walloc

 

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Absolutly an issue too, but my purpose of the original post was to set the following in context:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Historiker

How much strategic bombing can he do, after all? You have more than enough permanently restricted fighter units at the West Coast to deal with every bombing campaing, no?


Any thing is ofc relative. I just point out the post 21 feb '42 u in fact dont have more than 7 restricted squadrons left to defend the west coast vs "every bombing campaign". I could be wrong, but i think this is less than Historiker imagiens and lets on. Not that he does that on purpose.

This is far from the full picture, there are lots of non restricted units, reinforcements comming, the plane issues, training issue and so on.
Just pointing out if one expects a strategic bombing campaign that there might not be more than enough restricted units for u to feel safe.
Whether 7 makes you feel safe or not is naturally dependant on the individual player.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

High jack /off

< Message edited by Walloc -- 5/3/2012 8:05:59 PM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 8:43:01 PM   
Canoerebel


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12/27/41

NoPac; Screen shot below of current situation. SigInt that IJ troops are bound for Juneau. If he's coming that far, he's in this thing whole hog. He'll move on Anchorage and most likely into Canda. Two USN subs put a total of four fish into CL Kitikami, sending her under.

West Coast: A sub puts a TT into Queen Elizabeth as she departs Los Angeles. She was escorted by a destroyer, so this came as an unpleasant surprise. Damage is light and she'll continue her journey south. If she develops bad damage control problems, I'll divert her to Pearl Harbor.

Eastern DEI: I don't think Steve has hard information about the location of the American carriers. Force Z refuels at Soerabaja.

China: The Chinese are about to have 4,000+ AV at or adjacent to Nanyang. Several solo IJA divisions are close by, so I'm hoping to get in some good licks soon.




Attachment (1)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 9:28:27 PM   
Lomri

 

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I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 9:46:21 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!


Alaska could be a thorn if he wants it to be. It provides good bases close to the West Coast. This will help subs mostly. He could also send surface raiders down more easily.

The biggest thing is that any attack up here in the future will have to be staged from further away with greater chances of PH seeing it coming. Not everyone will be fortunate enough to pull off a trans-Pacific landing on Hokkaido and the Kuriles without being spotted.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 9:46:23 PM   
Cap Mandrake

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!


I often make decisions based on entertainment value alone. This usually works of for a couple of months and then something bad happens.

I think the Juneau garrison is a reinforced boy scout troop.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 10:03:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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Has anybody ever looked at the Juneau garrison?  I haven't.  I'm sure it has some unique name like Mountain Badgers Detachment.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/3/2012 10:09:56 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.

From Whittier he can march on Seward and Anchorage (and heck Fairbanks) so the landing isn't an issue there.

Again, this is sure great theater, and maybe PH has some super secret way to make this a big problem for you but so far it just seems more "cool" than anything else! Maybe you are suppose to get flustered and pay undue attention. I will be!


Alaska could be a thorn if he wants it to be. It provides good bases close to the West Coast. This will help subs mostly. He could also send surface raiders down more easily.

The biggest thing is that any attack up here in the future will have to be staged from further away with greater chances of PH seeing it coming. Not everyone will be fortunate enough to pull off a trans-Pacific landing on Hokkaido and the Kuriles without being spotted.


I think one thing the Greyjoy escapade showed us and that is the game is not ready for a Hokkaido Hurricane Despite sneaking an invasion across the Pacific ... bringing the whole Allied air force in range of the whole IJ air force in '44 breaks the game ..

Second thoughts ... In many places and points in history military decisions were made for political reasons. An invasion of Alaska would bring the full brunt of pressure to defend the west coast. In the game no such pressure exists, and I doubt very seriously in operational terms such pressure could be exerted. It might be a while before the IJ come to that conclusion. In the meantime the DEI becomes a challenge ..

EDIT: I thought Juneau just has a BF?

< Message edited by Crackaces -- 5/3/2012 10:12:37 PM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 3:06:31 AM   
Commander Cody


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Great to see you in action versus an aggressive opponent. I anticipate some good theater with this AAR. Assuming it is not an all or nothing effort, this Alaska/West Coast gambit can be countered by setting up an East Coast to Cape Town to Oz and/or India supply channel, as I first saw elucidated by Bullwinkle, if the going gets too rough for West Coast to Oz convoys.

Anyway, looking forward to learning some excellent strategic lessons from the inestimable Canoerebel.

Cheers,
CC

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 3:28:36 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Has anybody ever looked at the Juneau garrison?  I haven't.  I'm sure it has some unique name like Mountain Badgers Detachment.


Moose are involved.

No doubt about it.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 3:33:07 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lomri


I can see him picking up bases that are likely not garrisoned. But shouldn't he be nailed badly landing in winter? If I weren't at work I'd double check to see if Juneau is in the cold zone, but I'd guess it is.



Code question: which takes precedence? Cold weather rules or amhib bonus?

Hmm.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 3:34:59 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Has anybody ever looked at the Juneau garrison?  I haven't.  I'm sure it has some unique name like Mountain Badgers Detachment.


Moose are involved.

No doubt about it.

And Sarah Palin's grandpappy ...

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 3:44:31 AM   
Canoerebel


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I'm a big fan of the Capetown route. At the start of this game, troops and aircraft when from West Coast to East Coast to Capetown. I also transferred a bunch of tankers and cargo vessels to East Coast via the Panama Canal.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 4:48:57 AM   
JeffK


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I would like to see PH try the Canada approach.

Its different.

It will see CR put more effort into defending CONUS than normal, whether the investment is worth it we will find out?

PH will be in a good position to interdict the USA-HI LOC, basing out of Dutch Harbour etc he has a short sail to get across those LOC.

Whether is succeeds with CR pushing the door from the opossite side should be fun to watch.

PS, far all the talk about resrticted fighter units, dont forget this is where 99.99% of USAAF/USN/USMC Fighter Sqns spawn, might only be 7 restricted Sqns but might easily be 30+ unrestricted.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 6:27:03 AM   
Alfred

 

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A long time ago I explained how Japan could be successful in attacking the West Coast and Hawaii. I was dismissed as being mad.

Again I see somewhat superficial commentary which dismisses any Japanese action in this theatre as being essentially only a sideshow. In private I have recently communicated to a third party (I hasten to add it wasn't to either player in this match) why that Allied attitude is mistaken and can lead to a devastating Allied defeat at the hands of a strong Japanese player and a complacent Allied player.

In this post I will only discuss one element of a Japanese offensive in this theatre. It fills out the point Walloc has been making.

A6M2 Zeros based at Coal Harbor, using drop tanks can range as follows.

1. There are 8 American and 8 Canadian bases with industry within range. That means:


  • a bare minimum of 16 Allied fighter squadrons are required for basic CAP - 32 squadrons if a layered CAP, which is essential to defeating Zero sweeps in the first half of 1942, is taken into account
  • good luck going up against the Zero with P-36 and P-43, and other similar quality, airframes which comprise a fair bit of the available fighter strength
  • good luck opposing Zero Sentais with those miniscule fighter HQ units


2. Excluding the aircraft factories found within the target area, there are:


  • 30 Manpower centres
  • 1940 Resource centres
  • 280 Heavy Industry centres
  • 960 Light Industry centres
  • 405 Repair Shipyard points
  • 110 Oil centres
  • 110 Refinery centres


That represent 3835 industrial centres. If destroyed they provide 76700 VPs to Japan. Anyone still complacent that a Japanese auto victory on 1 January 1943 is not possible?

3. If Japan decides instead to damage and not destroy these industrial centres, the potential harvest of VPs is dependent on whether the Allies continue to repair them. Even if repaired, that is a great impost on Allied supply. At 1000 supply points to repair each individual damaged industry centre at a rate of 1 per day at each industrial facility, just how much surplus supply (from an already greatly reduced industrial base) would remain available to be shipped overseas.

4. Within the target area there are 3 aircraft factories. None is in production on 7 December 1941 and the two American ones are tooled to produce aircraft no earlier than the second half of 1944 so the loss of their production will not be a factor to stop a Japanese auto victory. But the Canadian factory is the sole source of the British Catalina I. Destroy/disrupt that factory and you soon have a major naval search/ASW problem in India.

5. Unlike the Japanese player, Allied industrial centres, once destroyed are gone forever. There is no Lazarus for them. Go back to point 2 above. Destroy/disable those 110 Oil centres and you run out of Oil -> Fuel to feed the remaining Heavy Industry located outside of the target area. Those 110 Oil centres normally would result in 990 fuel points. Thus the Allied player potentailly faces not just the loss of the 280 Heavy Industry centres in the target area, but an additional 215 Heavy Industry centres outside of the target area would lack the necessary feedstock.

6. Consider just one ripple effect. With the loss of 495 Heavy Industry centres, would the Allies still have the luxury of turning off all Heavy Industry in Australia (in order to conserve fuel stocks for fleet operations) and still be able to feed their remaining on map aircraft factories.

And this is just one of the possible threats from a Japanese offensive in this theatre. As the KB has been identified in theatre, I have no doubt Canoerebel's opponent is engaged in a theatre offensive. what are his exact objectives, I don't know because I don't read his AAR and there are other attractive options available to him. I don't know if this is the case but one should proceed on the basis that Nemo has provided input, either currently or from old posts. It therefore behoves people to think outside of the circle and not rest on complacent "truths" which are really only myths not based on rigorous analysis.

Alfred

Edit: forgot to mention that the Seattle ship repair yard which is within the target area is also one of the only 4 shipyards capable of repairing the 16" guns of the Iowa class.

< Message edited by Alfred -- 5/4/2012 6:42:22 AM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 5/4/2012 6:57:11 AM   
JeffK


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Veery Interesting.....

I suppose the JFB has to weigh up the cost of doing this, could he sustain it.

While building up this approach what is the AFB doing.

I'm nott sure how big your Coal Harbour airbase can grow, but it would make a nice target for those restricted USAAF bombers, plenty of B17 & B26 plus useful B18's and a number of large airbases in the area to base from.

I cant wait to see what builds from this, can what Alfred mentions be continued in the face of an effective AFB counter, afterall, Pearl Harbor is well placed to interdict the JFB LOC as well. Maybe a failed land campaign in the DEI, Burma, PI or Singapore because troops have been sent to the West Coast could create a hiccup. As we know, a bad die roll on a major battle could see either sides CV's wiped out.

I hope Nemo isnt providing help, his sage advise to Greyjoy broke the game, cant afford for that to happen this early, BUT, it might see some AFB restrictions enforced because this approach was unlikely being questioned and maybe a better game result..

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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Alfred)
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