How would the situation be different today with the EU I wonder. There was no real unity in europe during the 80's so britain was pretty much on their own. Are there mutual defense aspects tied into the EU? Would they apply to distant island holdings?
I saw this post when it had just started and avoided it then because I figured it couldn't be discussed without politics coming into it, but it's made it 4 pages without lock so I guess it's fine so far. Got me thinking about the differences between then and now.
Argentina has made taking the falklands into a huge internal issue. It's even part of their constitution. And realistically they're just one ambitious general away from going back to two-bit dictatorship with no respect for anything but their own power, so it's not so crazy to think they might invade again.
But looking at just the military budgets and number of armed forces britain overmatches them to a large degree. And if britain as part of the EU isn't alone in defending the falklands then it becomes even more pointless for argentina to try the same tactics.
Would france and germany help britain if argentina invaded again? Are they obliged to through the EU? Would they do so simply to support a fellow country? And without the ebil USSR would the US (or canada or australia) take a side and support britain without caring that they may annoy south america?
Similar thought. There's an island off the coast of Canada that's owned by france. If canada decided to annex that island and france and canada had an armed conflict over it... would the rest of the EU be obligated to help france? (please note, I'm not advocating canada annex Saint Pierre and Miquelon, this is just a similar piece of land with people on it who don't wish to change leaders).
No Chance that there's any european help, or almost no chance!
Germany has just abolished its superb Gepard Flak-Tanks, because we can't afford them any more and other nations should take over that part of the military. The idea is, that every european nation concentrates on one part and other nations complement them.
Unfortunately, Europe is divided. There can't be a unified military action unless everyone wants to. But there's almost no chance that everybody will ever want to. There's hopefully no chance that Europe gets reformed in a way that a EU-comission can force every member to go to war no matter what its parliament and population thinks.
While I am German and while I am in support of GB to defend its souvereignty, there's absolutly NO chance that this finds a majority in Germany. No German soldier will ever help the British to defend the Falklands. Our people doesn't want military interventions with a tiny few exceptions and the politicians hardly ever stand for what they believe but rather for what gives them votes.
So for help for the British, I see only a few nations that might actually help:
- France: They have the balls, the means and they do interventions all the time. Also, their president still has the power to authorize military action without the parliament afaik.
- Poland: Proud of their military past while embracing freedom and being part of the west
But before Germany is a part of an armed response, the British should better count on Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Spain.
< Message edited by Historiker -- 4/5/2012 10:18:08 AM >
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