After reviewing the situation, it becomes clear I have a couple of choices to make.
In the North, I continue the delaying action by employing a hedgehoc defence of strong to moderate stacks South of the Luga. Luckily, the terrain favors the defence. This allows me to stay out of reach of the fast approaching infantry and forces Sebastian to again use his armour to gain headway. At the end of turn 3, he was already down to 1649 serviceable tanks, hopefully, we can reduce this further.
Leningrad Front 28th, 24th and 23rd Armies take over responsibility for the Luga defense and start digging. A liberal dose of RR brigades to those three armies is ordered.
NW Fronts 27th and 11th Armies shift East and North to cover the right hook, and I'm doing my damndest to appear very strong in this area. Everything West of Velikie Lukie is practically abandoned to find the necessary troops. In any case, following the retreat in the Center this was inevitable. Staying there would invariably have lead to an encirclement in a couple of turns, if that.
In the Center, the choices are simple, stay another turn and hope for the best or, fall back, in good order, just enough to stay out of reach of the infantry now appearing in strength while making use of the river lines to bolster the defenses.
It's not an easy decision. Giving up the land bridge and the upper Dnepr on turn 4 is ugly, it's still a looong way till mud and I need time to get the newly arrived reinforcements worked up so they can take their place in the line. The Reserve front has just activated but is in no shape to be committed. The best I can expect them to do is some digging, and even that. On the other hand, staying another turn can be fatal. I've just lost 5 good divisions and there is no hope of relieving them as Sebastian is very careful and always stacks 2 units which could be attacked. In addition, he invariably creates a buffer of flipped hexes which make it very difficult to get to him with sufficient movement points to make a deliberate attack. Lastly, to stay, I would need at least twice as many divisions to have any hope of stopping a determined push. So clearly, I must fall back and save the army, I'm sure to need them soon somewhere else.
In the South, recon reveals a buildup right where I anticipated him to cross and I further reinforce that stretch of the line. He's not going to get accross without a fight!
< Message edited by glvaca -- 3/25/2012 11:13:48 PM >