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RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J)

 
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RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/18/2013 12:12:20 AM   
PaxMondo


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Francois,

Can you post a couple complete day encounters with the 4E's. When you chop off the reactions, can't tell what is happening so have no advice for you.

As for NF (night fighters), the only thing that matters is DUR. So Zero's are a bad choice. NF's only disrupt the 4E's. You need high DUR so they can survive the encounters. Zero's come in contact and just get shot down before they can force the bombers off. I have so rarely seen them shoot one down, that you might as well forget that as a goal. BUT, if you don't have them up the accuracy of hte 4E's at night is incredible.

I would also encourage you to talk to your opponent on an HR. No night bombing below 10K ... you might even want higher. The problem with night bombing and the 4E's is exactly as you have seen. They are unstoppable, they suffer few losses, and the accuracy is incredible. I won't comment on how historically accurate this is because that is really moot. The problem is that it is a game breaker tactic. There is no counter to it that I have found other than being able to NavBombard the base they are coming in from. It just puts the game into a very boring spiral for the IJ player.

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 5/18/2013 12:14:41 AM >


_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 481
RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/18/2013 8:52:03 AM   
fcharton

 

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From: Nemours, France
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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Can you post a couple complete day encounters with the 4E's. When you chop off the reactions, can't tell what is happening so have no advice for you.


Hi Pax,
Here is the encounter for the 15th of October, during the day. There were some fighter sweep in the afternoon as well.

Morning Air attack on Rabaul , at 106,125
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 49
A6M3a Zero x 3

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 14
B-24D Liberator x 15
B-25C Mitchell x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 20 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 6 destroyed on ground
A6M3a Zero: 3 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 6 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 5 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 3 damaged
B-25C Mitchell: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 22

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 11000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
8 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 11000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
7 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 11000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
7 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 11000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
7 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 11000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
Chitose Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 4 on standby, 18 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 35 minutes
Kanoya Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (1 airborne, 3 on standby, 16 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters between 9000 and 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 33 minutes
Ryujo-1 with A6M2 Zero (2 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 5000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes
Shoho-1 with A6M3a Zero (1 airborne, 2 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters to 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 8 minutes


For the record, I have 12 flak points in Rabaul, with radar, and some cannons that have ceilings over 11000 feet, and the airport is level seven. And as usual, the losses are quite underestimated : 20 zeroes were destroyed on the ground, runway damage was over 30, service over 20, and A2A claimed 35 zeroes, although some probably went down during the afternoon sweeps (stratospheric P38, which seem to have no problem at such long ranges against three time their numbers, of course)

Francois

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 482
RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/18/2013 2:44:03 PM   
PaxMondo


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Joined: 6/6/2008
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OK, so here is my take. LoBaron is much better than I am, so I iwll defer to him if he stops by.

First, you start with only 5 Zero's in the air when the 4E's are sighted 11 mins out. only 6 more can get airborne and to altitude before the 4E's arrive. So, you have 11 Zero's against 29 4E's + 9 2E's.

Given the odds, and the fact that the Zero has low DUR, you didn't lose any fighters in A2A speaks to high pilot EXP/Skill. The low numbers also means that your fighters had little chance to interfere with the bombers during their bomb run. Hence the AF damage you see.

The rest of your fighters engaged the bombers on their exit, and most of them might have gotten one pass. Hence, almost no losses on the allied side.

So, suggestions:
1. you need to have at least 1:1 Zero/4E ratio in daylight to have reasonable odds. Using your current CAP settings, it means you need 3x the number of Zero's at Rabaul.
2. If you can get to 1.5:1 ratio, you will really make an impact. I generally see 25%-50% 4E losses per raid when I can achieve those ratios. Your opponent can only sustain a couple of days of those and then he is done.
3. This only works for daylight CAP.

Just my thoughts.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to fcharton)
Post #: 483
RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/18/2013 2:50:21 PM   
PaxMondo


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PS: As the 4E's were sighted only 11 mins out, it means that your radar probably failed it's check. IJ radar isn't that good, most of them have only a 30-40% chance to pass their check. So, when I commit radar to a site I have to get at least 2, and better 3, radar devices there to ensure a high probability that the radar will detect a raid.

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Pax

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 484
RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/18/2013 7:14:43 PM   
fcharton

 

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Joined: 10/4/2010
From: Nemours, France
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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
First, you start with only 5 Zero's in the air when the 4E's are sighted 11 mins out. only 6 more can get airborne and to altitude before the 4E's arrive. So, you have 11 Zero's against 29 4E's + 9 2E's.

Given the odds, and the fact that the Zero has low DUR, you didn't lose any fighters in A2A speaks to high pilot EXP/Skill. The low numbers also means that your fighters had little chance to interfere with the bombers during their bomb run. Hence the AF damage you see.

The rest of your fighters engaged the bombers on their exit, and most of them might have gotten one pass. Hence, almost no losses on the allied side.


If this is the case, how do I get?

A6M2 Zero: 20 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 3 damaged

Which turns into a dozen zeroes shot down (more than were on air during the main attack?)

I can understand that my fighters didn't scramble, and the bombers can complete their run, but then, I shouldn't lose much to A2A, because my fighters didn't scramble (and 11 fighters and flak should make a difference, imho)

I can understand that I lose a lot in A2A, because DUR is so low, but then, with B17 with very low maneuver rating, and against flak, I very much doubt the bombing run would happen.

But the coincidence of both seems strange to me. It looks as if my fighters didn't scramble, letting the bombers attack, and then there was an air battle on their trip back, which the bombers won because of their numbers (they didn't scatter, or flee, or run for cover, they just turns, maintained formation, and fought back)

And the problem is that the report is so cryptic that you could probably use it to explain ANY result...

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
1. you need to have at least 1:1 Zero/4E ratio in daylight to have reasonable odds. Using your current CAP settings, it means you need 3x the number of Zero's at Rabaul.
2. If you can get to 1.5:1 ratio, you will really make an impact. I generally see 25%-50% 4E losses per raid when I can achieve those ratios. Your opponent can only sustain a couple of days of those and then he is done.
3. This only works for daylight CAP.


If I read you correctly, to be able to fight 40 4E, in late 1942, with flak, radar (2 radar devices, in fact) and all that, over a large airbase, I need 3*50*1.5=225 fighters, plus some during the night (not that it makes much difference). Say, around 300... That's just one base, and my opponent has much more than 40 4E (even though he has to rotate them)

Right now, I have about 1000 fighters (discounting the nates, but including KB squadrons), some are restricted, some are at sea, I probably can't muster much more than 600 on front line duty. So, basically, I can defend two bases at a time, against 40 4E each...

This doesn't seem right and I believe it proves that something is wrong with the air model itself. Such results are just too extreme and one sided.

And in any case, it makes it very difficult for me to take the game seriously. I have spent a while learning the system, I don't think I'm brighter than others, but I don't think I'm dumber either, and not being able to prevent 40 4E to interdict Rabaul in late 42 unless I commit about half the japanese airforce to it, doesn't fit my definition of an interesting gaming experience, or even a steep learning curve. The word "futile" is the one that springs to mind, actually.

And I am beginning to fear that embarking on such a long PBEM campaign was a very wrong move...

Francois

< Message edited by fcharton -- 5/18/2013 7:55:00 PM >

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 485
RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/18/2013 9:15:24 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 4426
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcharton

If this is the case, how do I get?

A6M2 Zero: 20 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 3 damaged

Which turns into a dozen zeroes shot down (more than were on air during the main attack?)

I can understand that my fighters didn't scramble, and the bombers can complete their run, but then, I shouldn't lose much to A2A, because my fighters didn't scramble (and 11 fighters and flak should make a difference, imho)

I can understand that I lose a lot in A2A, because DUR is so low, but then, with B17 with very low maneuver rating, and against flak, I very much doubt the bombing run would happen.

But the coincidence of both seems strange to me. It looks as if my fighters didn't scramble, letting the bombers attack, and then there was an air battle on their trip back, which the bombers won because of their numbers (they didn't scatter, or flee, or run for cover, they just turns, maintained formation, and fought back)

And the problem is that the report is so cryptic that you could probably use it to explain ANY result...


Damaged only means that an aircraft was damaged, not 20 AC damaged, but that damage was done to an AC 20 times. could have been the same AC 20 times, you don't know.

The report doesn't show any shot down in this encounter, although some of them could have been. You lose them because the rest of your fighter did attack AFTER the bomb run in a chase position. Meaning, their attacks are slow and frankly the Zero has about the same firepower as the B17 does from a rear attack, but the B17 is a lot more rugged. Anyway, point is that your fighters are not showing up as 52 together, more likely there are never more than about 15 at any one time. The 4E's can handle this. You are playing to the 4E's stength, not the Zero's.

Flak. IJ flak is lousy is all there is to say and you don't have very much. Look at your flak unit. Most of them have 24 - 36 guns total, 50% are 25mm or smaller. Look at an allied flak unit. They can have +200 guns. One regiment. Point is, unless you have a +200 guns you really don't have much flak. So don't count on your flak doing a lot except to keep them above 5000 ft. The 25mm is pretty good at 5000ft and lower.

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcharton

If I read you correctly, to be able to fight 40 4E, in late 1942, with flak, radar (2 radar devices, in fact) and all that, over a large airbase, I need 3*50*1.5=225 fighters, plus some during the night (not that it makes much difference). Say, around 300... That's just one base, and my opponent has much more than 40 4E (even though he has to rotate them)

Right now, I have about 1000 fighters (discounting the nates, but including KB squadrons), some are restricted, some are at sea, I probably can't muster much more than 600 on front line duty. So, basically, I can defend two bases at a time, against 40 4E each...

This doesn't seem right and I believe it proves that something is wrong with the air model itself. Such results are just too extreme and one sided.

And in any case, it makes it very difficult for me to take the game seriously. I have spent a while learning the system, I don't think I'm brighter than others, but I don't think I'm dumber either, and not being able to prevent 40 4E to interdict Rabaul in late 42 unless I commit about half the japanese airforce to it, doesn't fit my definition of an interesting gaming experience, or even a steep learning curve. The word "futile" is the one that springs to mind, actually.

And I am beginning to fear that embarking on such a long PBEM campaign was a very wrong move...

Francois

Correct and this is exactly the dilema that the IJ faced. The IJ did not have fighters in '42 designed to go after the B17. Germany didn't either initially and the FW109 was born for that role.

So the IJ kept going piecemeal against the 4E's losing whenever they did. Their saving grace was that the USAAF wouldn't risk them nearly as much as allied players will. I actually think that 4E's should be worth 16VP's each, it would better represent how the allies felt about risking them and I think would help game balance.

But, let me get back on topic. Now that you know how to beat them, it is up to you to set the trap and kill them. In '42 the allies are only getting ~36 4E/month. not that many. you put together 2 -3 days of traps each month, and your opponent has just lost his months (and then some) replacement pool.

Francois, I am sorry to say, you have now hit the point where (if you recall I saluted you as a far better man than me) PDU OFF is a real challenge The issue with PDU OFF, as you now know, is that it locks you into the historic IJ tactics/strategy with regards to reacting to 4E's. This is ok if the allied player uses the 4E's historically (with trepidation, rarely except in support of major moves, for patrol/recon purposes exclusively until mid '44). But if the allied player is aggressive with them early, as your opponent is, then you are severely constricted as to what you can do to oppose that. You need/want to change plane types to a better defender against the 4E's, but you can't. Frustrating.

This is why I won't play PDU OFF.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to fcharton)
Post #: 486
RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/18/2013 11:25:38 PM   
fcharton

 

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Joined: 10/4/2010
From: Nemours, France
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Hi Pax,

I understand your points, but I think I disagree on two counts, flak and the effect of PDU off.

I’ve read that 60% of US combat mission casualties were due to anti-aircraft fire (here, page 9, http://www.anesi.com/ussbs01.htm
“Aggregate United States plane losses during the course of the Pacific war, not including training losses in the United States, were approximately 27,000 planes. Of these losses 8,700 were on combat missions; the remainder were training, ferrying and other noncombat losses. Of the combat losses over 60 percent were to antiaircraft fire”) Game results diverge from this analysis: almost all our losses are combat mission losses, in fact half of them are air to air, and flak losses are very low, even when one includes some of the ops losses. I believe this suggests flak is underpowered. Also, note that the main role of flak was not to shoot bombers (although that was a nice premium), but to prevent them from hitting their target by causing them to lose formation. In practice, this made even a small amount of flak very efficient even against large raids (except for area bombing, which was in a way, a response to flak efficiency), and there was a tendency, on all sides, to penny packet their flak (this is why the Japanese have so many small AA units in the game). The idea that flak must be very concentrated to make any difference, which the game model upholds, makes little sense to me.

I believe AE tends to overestimate combat, and especially air to air, casualties at the expense of all other causes, and this creates the extreme results we often observe (as flak and non-combat losses are a balancing factor).

As for PDU off, I am not sure I follow you. Do you mean you’d use the Nick as your main fighter, to have enough of them when the 4Es attack? In PDU Off, I have 110 Nicks right now, and could double their numbers by upgrading (and buying) more squadrons. With PDU On, I could have some more, but then my opponent would have more front line 4E squadrons (the Allies have a lot of restricted 4E squadrons, which they could upgrade to fill the pools…) I do understand the limits of PDU off when it comes to Helens, or Tojos, but not really for Nicks.


October 16th 1942

This turn was the most uneventful in the war so far. The combat report is only 190 lines long, featuring three night attacks: six Sallies over Imphal, causing one supply hit, six Wellingtons over Mandalay, met by four Tojos, for no damage, five B17-F over Rabaul, met by seven Zeroes 3a, four Zeroes lost. I forgot to escort my CAP, silly me!

During the day there was one small sweep over Burma, where 12 Oscars IIa shot down one P40-K. This is my 36th, amounting to a third of all P40-K produced so far.

Finally, in China, the last KMT stack was attacked again. The fourteen remaining units are mere shells, but they will not surrender. One regiment reinforced the attackers today, it will shock attack tomorrow while the others rest.

Enemy carriers were detected again north of Fiji, together with a large surface force. In the South Pacific, my opponent is building Rossel Island. There are no signs of enemy activity elsewhere.

I believe the next enemy move will be against the Gilberts. Tarawa is my main base there, with level six forts, and two regiments on their way.



(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 487
RE: Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J) - 5/19/2013 2:00:24 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 4426
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline
You are correct in the AA losses, but they weren't 4E losses at +10,000 ft. They were fighter/bomber, DB, and 2E on low altitude missions. Those were the most hazardous, but also the only way then to perform tactical bombing ... you had to be low and slow ... perfect for AA.

If PDU ON, at this point you would have 2nd gen Tojo by now and George researched. Both of those are much better than Zero against 4E due to higher DUR.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to fcharton)
Post #: 488
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