From: Dallas, Texas
Quick rebut on this, units in Cities and Urban hexes do not need a die roll; they are automatically protected up to the level of the city.
For cities, 2 units are SAFE.
For URBAN, 3 units are SAFE
For Towns, there is a die-roll of 1 to 4, and that's compared to size of town. So, size-4 town can hold 1 unit safely, always, and 75% chance a lvl 3 town can keep a unit safe. And so on.
I would stack every city and urban to the top with units, either reserves or HQ. Move Army group HQs back to a safe town in the rear.
The main things I would do to survive:
2. Retreat one hex per turn
3. STACK units; you can leave a gap in between, provided you ALSO retreat one hex a turn. Soviets don't have the MPs to exploit that hole if you do that, trust me.
Don't stack if you aren't also going to retreat, because units can always move 1 hex, and a rifle division filling that hole to either side of your stack....and you will get pinned. Don't do it.
Check out my "Death Ride" AAR; I spent alot of time thinking about Blizzard defense on that one, and had a post with alot of tactics in there
So there really is no benefit to taking units all the way back to Germany, save the tiny chance they might gain a moral point by being in Germany.
I think your tactics are excellent, although I would question the point that units can always move 1 hex. I believe in gneral they can usually move 1 hex but that depends on morale, supply, terrain, hex control, etc- right?