kmitahj
Posts: 100
Joined: 4/25/2011 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Kitakami If it is so, then it makes MUCH sense to set a few factories to research the late fighters... they will come online slowly, so the economic impact should not be felt as much, but 37% of many months is a LOT of research time... a couple of airframes could be accelerated quite a bit. I guess the Frank is a given, but as I see things, there are enough R&D factories to research another late (maybe IJN?) fighter. Just my 2 centavos. Yes, I agree. That is what I used to aim at in old WitP: make a plan, setup research factories early and then... be patient. Very patient. At the beginning tempo of repair for late-war planes will be agonizingly slow which - as you said - has a good side effect of beeing light on supply usage. This slowlness is btw clearly seen in the probability distribution table generated in alimentary script. Every entry $sizedist[D][S] in that table tells us precisely what is a probability that our factory will have size S after first D days. So nice... If applied mathematics can be cute then I dare to say that this script is really cute! Just practical example from classic WitP age: if we setup Frank research early enough we have about 28 months till availability. Using above estimation: 28*0.37, rounded down to be on the safe side, leave us some 10 months for actual r/d pts generation. If we decide to invest in 5 Frank r/d factories of 30+ size we can expect 300 r/d pts every two months, that is we expect to get 3 months of advance every two months of work. Apply this twice and we use up whole 10 months: 4 months of r/d points generation resulting in 6 months of advance time - not bad I think. This assumes near ideal conditions of course. One thing which may make conditions less then ideal is supply stress in HI area (this may result in less then 10k supply in some research sites which negatively impact repair chances). And of course there is another serious danger when researching very late-war airframes: allied player may get his 4E hordes in range of research facilities before they will be able to deliver. In classic WitP aggressive allied player using Iwojima or Sakhalin Gambits could start strategic bombing of HI somewhere in late 43... quote:
ORIGINAL: alimentary The approach I took on the latter challenge was to model the possibility of an advance in availability date (and the resulting increase in factory repair rate) by taking the expected value of the research to date _from all of the "other" factories_. When that exceeds 100 points, availability moves up and repair rates increase to match. If you are estimating for 1 factory, this correction has no effect. If you are estimating for 30 factories, I _think_ that this results in an unbiased estimator. Thanks for taking the challenge. To be honest I can't say anything (at least anything consistent) pro or contra regarding correctnies of your approximation. I see it reduces nicely when $facilities=1 but that's it - beyond that my intuition simply refuses to cooperate with me I also briefly comtemplated strict solution (that is one in which $days variable would have its own distribution table calculated synchronously with factory repairs dist-table [or rather tables]) but quickly came to conclusion that complexity of such approach is far beyond me. Still I don't thing it is that importatnt as we are trying to catch here secondary if not tertiary effect relevant - if at all - only for larger number of factories. So it's mostly academic though interesting (imho) problem. From practical point of view the distribution generated for single factory is all we need I think. Beatuy of your script is that for single factory it gave us on the golden plate mathematicaly correct and complete solution which may be used as base for whatever prediction one would be interested in. For example one can easily (and precisely!) answer the question about expected supply cost of r/d factory repair after any given number of days. So, who knows, some day we may even see in Tracker a plot predicting day-after-day supply usage of r/d repairs for given initial setup of r/d factories. Btw, before I forget: I think there is a typo in the script in place marked below: quote:
# First, figure the number of research points per factory per turn # complete repairs. $p = ($maxsize+1)/30; if ( $p > 30 ) { <--here: $p > 1 $p = 1; };
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