From: east coast, usa
Ok, well, I wouldn't say that its random, because everything has been calculated based on the BRP system and Combat Factors from the original. For example, in my notes each country has an entry that looks like this :
Germany 87 Inf, 48 Arm, 30 Air  .527, .290, .181 150/38 20.02, 11.02, 6.87 20.02, 11.02, 6.87 BRP's allows for 6.67 inf, 1.37 arm, 2.29 air units. Replacement equalivalent: 701 inf, 69 arm, 115 Fighter, and 114 bomber.
Using these numbers as a base, all expenditures can be translated into TOAW Basic Replacement Points. The same for any affect that any action would have on a country's BRP's (i.e., Britain losing Gibraltar or Suez, or Germany conquering France). Sometimes the results are a little wacky, in which case I do randomly/arbitrarily make adjustments (for example, Axis Replacements are probably still too high, but this conclusion is based only on three playtests I've done, none of which has produced historical results with respect to Axis casualties).
In the case of Strategic Warfare, we have 'made up' some effects as discussed earlier in order to accomodate the BRP system. For example, in TOAW the Axis player can't actually expend BRP's to increase U-Boats, so in the scenario chosing a TO to 'Increase U-Boat Production' will cost replacements in other categories. These replacement costs take the form of units I call 'hogs'. A Hog unit will contain different types of equipment, for example: 1/400 Axis Fighter Units, and 1/100 Axis Armor Units. Hogs are not playable units and will arrive in a 'Not in Play' area of the map any time a player expends BRP's, thus 'hogging up' the players replacements.
Maybe you are sorry that you asked now.