Excellent summary, it pulls in information from various rules and combines them in one place.
It facilitates the following observations:
1. Left unmolested, the CSA PPs will typically grow each turn because the combined political rating of six southern general officers will almost always exceed the automatic -9 PPs per turn. Time starts running out for the Union on the very first turn (conversely no combination of six northern general officers offsets the -27 PPs per turn loss).
2. Some events create consequences for only one side (i.e. relieving a general) and some create a consequence for both sides (capture of a region).
3. The Magic Number approach. The grand strategy of the Union is dictated by the need to get the CSA to 0 PPs.
Consider this simple mathematical formula:
start with 1000 PPs for the CSA
+add the estimated PPs gain each turn as described in paragraph 1, above
+add the PPs for CSA events you anticipate will occur such as an estimated number of CSA strategic victories (every dog has his day), etc.
-subtract the PPs for CSA events you reasonably anticipate will occur (relieving officers, strategic losses)
(factor in such other elements I may have overlooked).
This gives you a net number of CSA PPs you must reduce to zero; this number is your real adversary.
Divide the net number of CSA PPs you reasonably anticipate the CSA will have by the number of turns in the game; the result is the "magic number". The number will horrify the Union. Deal with it. The "magic number" is the average PP loss the Union must inflict on the South every, every, every (did I say every) turn. There will inevitably be many months the South loses no PPs, meaning the Union will have to make it up later. In other words, the "magic number" will change every turn.
It is a good idea for new Union players to keep a running tally of the "magic number". The "magic number" is the true mark of their progress in war. If the number is going up, the Union is clearly not winning. If the number is going down, the Union is moving towards victory.
Thanks again to Jon for collecting all the information necessary to run the formula.
"L'audace, l'audace, toujours l'audace."