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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs!

 
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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:23:56 AM   
JeffK


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Veeery interesting!

Boy are you in deep do-do.

It will be interesting to see the reaction to your Gilberts push, If ignored you take Eniwetok and you dont get very far. If reacted to you get a chance to hit the japanese while on the move.

Is the scenario modded?
You seem to have DEI aircraft well beyond their withdrawal date or are you paying PP to keep them going.

Careful about being at Portland Rds, means nothing but he now has his NZ force available to cut you off.


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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 2:40:17 PM   
PaxMondo


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Can you summarize your fleet losses?

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 2:56:12 PM   
EUBanana


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Ouch is about all I can say at first glance really... it's going to be a nightmare crawling back through this one.

The Gilberts don't really go anywhere. A successful Gilberts campaign leaves you with two routes forward - Ponape/Truk, which is a no no, and Wake/Marcus, which is so extended and precarious as to only really be useful if you have naval superiority and are planning on a Marianas campaign. It does shorten and secure supply lines into the SOPAC area. It's not really useful for naval raids on his supply lines unless you go all the way to Marcus.

It might lure an opponent who hates to lose any base into battles where he is at a disadvantage though, and it might draw forces away from more critical theatres.

So... a bit pessimistic there of what the Gilberts would give you. But it might be that that is all you can do. I appreciate that that might be reason enough, its why I waged a Gilberts campaign.

What is the situation around the Noumea/Solomons/New Britain/Papua sort of area? If you can advance in SOPAC that is far more productive and potentially dangerous than the Gilberts, especially with him in NE Australia. And how is Australia doing in your estimation? What spare forces have you got for offensive action? Is Australia proper in serious danger as it seems Karachi is?

How solid is his control of the waters around India?

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:21:42 PM   
hades1001

 

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Thank you guys for your inputs.

First of all, latest Strategic Map:






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< Message edited by hades1001 -- 1/19/2012 5:22:31 PM >

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:22:51 PM   
hades1001

 

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Then the intelligence:






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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:26:37 PM   
hades1001

 

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Allies ship losses:

I lost 3 carriers 7BB by now, and 9 CA, 17 CL. Lost them mainly in the Feb, 42 Darwin Raid and the Fiji Campaign.

We didn't engage in any major Surface Combat with Japs so there is not much capital ship losses for Japs.






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< Message edited by hades1001 -- 1/19/2012 5:27:45 PM >

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:28:19 PM   
hades1001

 

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Allies CA/CL/DD losses:






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< Message edited by hades1001 -- 1/19/2012 5:29:23 PM >

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:30:19 PM   
hades1001

 

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Japanese ship losses:






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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:32:28 PM   
hades1001

 

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Aircraft losses:






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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:38:29 PM   
hades1001

 

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Hi JeffK

No we are using the stock Scenario 2.

What happened to my Dutch air groups is that I withdraw them before more than 60 days before the historical withdraw date, so they are suppose to come back in 60 days. However, all available ABDA bases are taken in this 60 days so they are delayed for a few times and finally pop out at Aden. I withdraw them at about January and for some reason they come back to me at around August. And I don't have to withdraw them anymore.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Veeery interesting!

Boy are you in deep do-do.

It will be interesting to see the reaction to your Gilberts push, If ignored you take Eniwetok and you dont get very far. If reacted to you get a chance to hit the japanese while on the move.

Is the scenario modded?
You seem to have DEI aircraft well beyond their withdrawal date or are you paying PP to keep them going.

Careful about being at Portland Rds, means nothing but he now has his NZ force available to cut you off.



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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:43:15 PM   
hades1001

 

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Pax your avatar reminds me the good old days LOL

I tried hard to reserve my fleet but still suffered heavy losses at Darwin and Fiji.

I lost 7BB in PH and after, 3 carriers in Fiji, 9CA/17CL at Darwin/Fiji.

But the IJN is barely hurt. My opponent tried hard to preserve his fleet too and I believe I heavily damaged a few his BB/CA but they were all saved eventually.

So, very ugly result if you compare Allies and IJN ship losses.

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Can you summarize your fleet losses?


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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 5:55:22 PM   
hades1001

 

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Hi Eubanana thanks for Jumping in. Welcome aboard for the Allied joint chiefs of staff :)

My whole strategy is to open as many fronts as possible so that Japs have to distribute their limited(maybe unlimited) resources to multiple fronts.

The CenPAC is just one of the many fronts and it already works.

I have drew attention about 50,000 Jap troops to the surrounding areas and about 200 Jap fighters and 100 bombers detected in Marshall Islands now.

Gilbert Islands is the best place for a CenPac outpost, it serves as a transition station for Allies and it's the best one we can get between Marianas and PH. It opens door to Solomons, Marshall Islands, Wake-Marcus-Iwo Jima. Once I have taken Gilbert, strategically Japs have to defend all those areas and they are already start to do so. And it already well served my goal of dispersing Japs defense forces.

Now I have created 4 fronts for Japs now:

India, DEI(from Diego Garcia), Northwestern Australia-Port Moresby and the CenPAC.

And I'm going to create more fronts in the next couple of months.


quote:

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

Ouch is about all I can say at first glance really... it's going to be a nightmare crawling back through this one.

The Gilberts don't really go anywhere. A successful Gilberts campaign leaves you with two routes forward - Ponape/Truk, which is a no no, and Wake/Marcus, which is so extended and precarious as to only really be useful if you have naval superiority and are planning on a Marianas campaign. It does shorten and secure supply lines into the SOPAC area. It's not really useful for naval raids on his supply lines unless you go all the way to Marcus.

It might lure an opponent who hates to lose any base into battles where he is at a disadvantage though, and it might draw forces away from more critical theatres.

So... a bit pessimistic there of what the Gilberts would give you. But it might be that that is all you can do. I appreciate that that might be reason enough, its why I waged a Gilberts campaign.

What is the situation around the Noumea/Solomons/New Britain/Papua sort of area? If you can advance in SOPAC that is far more productive and potentially dangerous than the Gilberts, especially with him in NE Australia. And how is Australia doing in your estimation? What spare forces have you got for offensive action? Is Australia proper in serious danger as it seems Karachi is?

How solid is his control of the waters around India?



< Message edited by hades1001 -- 1/19/2012 5:57:32 PM >

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 6:00:20 PM   
hades1001

 

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And given the Australia isolated from our supply line we can't launch any substantial Amphibious attack from there yet. So we may consider a Solomon Campaign but we are too weak to support anything amphibious operation in front of KB right now.

By the end of July my pacific fleet will have 6 US fleet carriers and hundreds of Hellcats. Until then we won't try to engage KB directly.

< Message edited by hades1001 -- 1/19/2012 6:01:55 PM >

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 6:09:19 PM   
EUBanana


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Man, you look farqed in a big way. I commend you for soldiering on! Japan pretty much has the whole map... Based on this IJ have got superiority on land and sea until mid 1944 at the earliest. And on land maybe much longer than that... maybe until Ivan shows up!

I'd probably try and hit the Solomons or Luganville area from CENTPAC direction as the best chance. You'd have to clear out most of the Gilberts first I imagine if you're coming through there. If you can achieve local superiority long enough to get settled there then you can set up interlocking airfields and be hard to dislodge. Then you can battle forward pretty much all the way to Japan ultimately under cover of LBA. Question is the initial jump and protecting supply lines in the danger period.

Other choice, maybe NORPAC, not normally fond of it but the map offers so few other opportunities.

Can't really see anything else very appealing. Ceylon? Seems very dangerous for little reward. Perth via NW Australia, assuming you can kick IJ out of there, into the DEI? Almost no decent bases that way though and a lot of big jumps between bases.


Depends on where you think he has built up. As I see green dots around Efate though I guess he's not been hugely diligent there. How is Shortlands and Munda, is the upper Solomons massively built up?

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 6:27:06 PM   
hades1001

 

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The whole pacific area is very much not built up yet. My intelligence shows that he fortified Marianas but that's it.

New Caledonia, Guadalcanal, Port Moresby are all moderate defended. And there are 200,000 Japs sitting at Rabaul waiting for Allies next move.


If I have decent carrier fleet I can do a lot right now. But I only have 3 US carrier and 150 Hellcats. I believe KB is very close to Truk so that any operation need to cross the seas need to wait until we are fully armed.

It's a golden chance for Allies but we are too weak to grab it.

< Message edited by hades1001 -- 1/19/2012 6:35:47 PM >

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 7:05:09 PM   
hades1001

 

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Solomons:






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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 7:11:35 PM   
hades1001

 

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New Caledonia:






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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 7:17:28 PM   
hades1001

 

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CenPAC:






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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:09:09 PM   
EUBanana


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Do you think you can prise KB away from Truk?

An assault in Norpac which is merely a feint, perhaps?

I fed ships to the beast in CENTPAC for a month in my game to make sure KB stayed in the Pacific before landing 5 divisions in Burma. That really got the Allies rolling forward. I wonder if you can do something similar, give yourself a couple of weeks of grace and hit HARD and with enough support to ensure that even if KB parks off the coast they won't end up in a POW camp.

You'd have to make sure that when KB comes back - which won't be very long - your bases are more or less self sustaining and not cut off.

But yes, your situation looks pretty bad. It may be better to simply wait until 1944 before doing anything out of LBA range. You can nibble at bases that are within LBA cover at least for now, do something in the Gilberts or anywhere you can cover with bombers so you don't feel totally passive. By the time you are in a position to be more daring you should have some nice jump off points.

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:13:03 PM   
EUBanana


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In fact looking at it you don't have Nauru Island after all. You'd need Nauru and Kusaie Islands before doing any adventurism in SOPAC from the direction of Tarawa really.

Problem is I'm sure he probably realises its the easiest path for you too, no doubt thats why there's activity at Nauru Island.

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:15:11 PM   
EUBanana


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And 200k Japs at Rabaul, wow. Really?

Thats like, six divisions at a very conservative estimate.

Yeah... you won't be able to do anything is those guys end up in a position to counterinvade.

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:23:59 PM   
hades1001

 

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Yes Ponape, and Nauru Island is being fortified. And I don't have much ways to stop it yet. All due to my weak carriers forces. Even I have 6 carriers by now, I don't want to risk them when are not fully armed with hellcats.

I can be patient enough for a couple of months and then jump out again. I need a lot of preparation work to do right now. I'm upgrading my APA and warships, transporting troops, supplies and fuel. I'm still looking for a spot to surprise the Japs.

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:27:35 PM   
hades1001

 

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Actually I planned the Gilbert action for August, 43 but there was a chance I found at the end of March. So I just risk my very weak carrier fleet to take Gilbert Islands. And Luckily I succeeded. But the rest of the plans really need to wait until I'm strong enough. This is going to be a long and tough battle and there is no way of a guaranteed Allied victory. But it will be fun.

< Message edited by hades1001 -- 1/19/2012 8:29:01 PM >

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:38:29 PM   
hades1001

 

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I would estimate 10 Divs actually.

Given that there are 600,000 Japs in India right now and another 200,000 Japs as Garrison all over the map, I have to say that Japs really have too many mobile LCU than they historically did.

My opponent said that the only thing he concerns about is fuel and he has tons of supplies and don't have to worry about it. The oil production on the map together won't be able to fully support the HI in Japan and India. It's still surprising that Japs can produce this much supplies in the game.

Back in WITP games, even Japs seized India, the supply is always headache for Jap. In AE it's just a totally different story.



quote:

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

And 200k Japs at Rabaul, wow. Really?

Thats like, six divisions at a very conservative estimate.

Yeah... you won't be able to do anything is those guys end up in a position to counterinvade.


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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 8:49:10 PM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

Man, you look farqed in a big way. I commend you for soldiering on! Japan pretty much has the whole map... Based on this IJ have got superiority on land and sea until mid 1944 at the earliest. And on land maybe much longer than that... maybe until Ivan shows up!


I'll play Devil's Advocate here. I think you're fine. Seriously.

The biggest issue facing your opponent right now is how to garrison all this area. He can't. Most IJ players wait way too long to abandon these forward positions. It puts them out of place once a real allied offensive starts. If you doubt this, read GJ/Rader AAR's.

Step back; what's your goal? Crush the HI. That simple.

You are starting to get your Essex CV's and your CVE's. Pick your route to the HI, either Central PAC or Northern PAC as they are the shortest routes to your goal. Wait until you have overwhelming force ... you want 2:1 in Naval air advantage and you want LBA in play, that means you start AFTER you get your B-29's. This means you are still 12 months from your major offensive.

1. Start prepping your forces now. Plan your PP's expenditures to buy out the forces you will need as you will need them.

2. Be sure for each invasion, you have a ready force to go in if there are any surprises. When you go in, go in hard with nothing held back.

3. Get your first target, build it up, reset your forces, and then go for the next one.

4. You should be able to handle one amphib op every 30 days once you get things in place.

5. Stay focused. There is nothing in India or OZ that matters, and even the DEI is moot once you are in B-29 range of the HI.


Are there counters to the above strategy and tactic? Yeah, but they are really tough to implement. Mistakes on your part are your opponents biggest asset. Sitting where you are right now, you are positioned to be hammering the HI in Sept '44. That's pretty much a normal outcome unless the IJ player loses the KB in '42.

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 9:10:26 PM   
JeffK


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To add to Pax's comments, get your recon out there and review the Sigint. What are his weakly held bases in the Gilberts? Can you pick up some cheaply and not waste months of prep and a few Divs on a Bn Garrison.

A bit of recon by fire can help, get your bases capable of B24 and try a raid to see what is uncovered.

When you pick a target hit it hard, make sure you win quickly. The time for longer campaigns is only for when you have CV cover or under LBA fighter superiority.

Pax is talking about Saipan, Tinian & Guam for #5, you have been HR'd out of a northern approach unlees you head straight for Para Jima.

I think its also early to execute these plans, the IJA is still in big numbers, where is the Wellington force headed, its still too big to take on so you need to knock the IJA down a few pegs.

Karachi/Hyderabad should be interesting, I hope he goes through with the attack just to see how it pans out. Might scare a few JFB, or maybe AFB depending on the outcome.


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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 9:31:43 PM   
hades1001

 

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Marshall Islands and Gilbert Islands are actually the weak points in April. It took me 1 month to secure the whole Gilbert area and it's Early May now. And I have intelligence shows that KB should be close to Truk at this moment.

Championzhao has the chance to just stuff every atoll in Marshall Islands to it's garrison limit. So there is no free lunch anymore, I have to prepare for Marshall bases if I want to take them. Especially those 30,000 limit atolls(Nauru Island etc...). I'm not sure what I want to do with Marshall Islands yet. Maybe take a few key bases and leave other atoll along and leave the Japs rotten there.


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

To add to Pax's comments, get your recon out there and review the Sigint. What are his weakly held bases in the Gilberts? Can you pick up some cheaply and not waste months of prep and a few Divs on a Bn Garrison.

A bit of recon by fire can help, get your bases capable of B24 and try a raid to see what is uncovered.

When you pick a target hit it hard, make sure you win quickly. The time for longer campaigns is only for when you have CV cover or under LBA fighter superiority.

Pax is talking about Saipan, Tinian & Guam for #5, you have been HR'd out of a northern approach unlees you head straight for Para Jima.

I think its also early to execute these plans, the IJA is still in big numbers, where is the Wellington force headed, its still too big to take on so you need to knock the IJA down a few pegs.

Karachi/Hyderabad should be interesting, I hope he goes through with the attack just to see how it pans out. Might scare a few JFB, or maybe AFB depending on the outcome.



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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 9:41:32 PM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: hades1001
Championzhao has the chance to just stuff every atoll in Marshall Islands to it's garrison limit. So there is no free lunch anymore, I have to prepare for Marshall bases if I want to take them. Especially those 30,000 limit atolls(Nauru Island etc...). I'm not sure what I want to do with Marshall Islands yet. Maybe take a few key bases and leave other atoll along and leave the Japs rotten there.


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Pax is talking about Saipan, Tinian & Guam for #5, you have been HR'd out of a northern approach unlees you head straight for Para Jima.




If he garrisons the Marshall's that heavily, he is open somewhere else or he has no depth.

Sorry, didn't know about the HR for the north ... that's a BIG advantage for IJ player .... So, you would have to build up Adak (unless "no war" means no units at all, not sure about your HR here) as your staging point and go for Hokkaido directly. I would almost bet the back door is wide open ... He's got too much force in India/China/Oz. Very hard and long time to re-orient your forces .... but if that is off limits due to the HR, simply plan to go in via the CentPac.

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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 9:57:16 PM   
EUBanana


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I wouldn't be quite so sanguine about sitting back and waiting for an assured victory to drop into your lap in 1944...

HI : he will have a lot, by dint of owning almost the entire map. By the time you get into B29 range he will have a huge stockpile. Some of his industry will be untouchable, like stuff in the interior of China or Thailand or whatever.

B29s : not the autowin button. I know IRL they were essentially immune to Japanese air defence, but not in WITP. Look at some 1944 AARs, you can see B29s dying like flies (at least, in relation to their replacement rate) in some of them against the hordes of high tech Japanese fighters which he will have. The late war Japs have plentiful radar, the Japs in 1944 have cannon armed aircraft, unlike IRL there won't be hordes of worthless Oscars because Jap industry will be streamlined to produce as much of the best as possible.

Marianas : you aren't necessarily going to be able to sail the Allied CV fleet in mid 1944 up to the Marianas without any preparatory bombing bar super long range unescorted B29s and hoist the US flag after a turkey shoot. FOr starters there will be no turkey shoot because Japanese pilot quality will almost certainly be a-ok. Unlike RL KB is entirely intact. The Allied carrier force will have no significant qualitative advantage in pilots or planes over the Japanese carriers in terms of fighters, and might even have a qualitative deficit given he might have the Sam by then and Hellcats are rather underwhelming. Brute numbers might work, you'll certainly have a lot of CVs. But it might not, and if all you got to support you is an outpost at Marcus Island and some ultra long range B29 bombing, the ball is kinda in his court...

Garrisons: well, I'd expect that to be. I'm amazed by the 200k troops in Rabaul for that reason. Surely he must be weak somewhere vital. He does have the entire map though, so though the IJA does have extra commitments like New Zealand, on the other hand China is no more which frees up a LOT of troops.

The Thunderbolt has a range of 9 hexes and will without a doubt get you air superiority over whatever Japanese base it's in range of. Look for a series of base hops no more than 9 hexes apart that go somewhere vital and hopefully threaten to cut off a bunch of Japanese divisions. Get prepping, and work on them as the opportunity arises.


< Message edited by EUBanana -- 1/19/2012 9:59:24 PM >


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RE: Ongoing Campaign in India, 600,000 Japs! - 1/19/2012 10:00:41 PM   
hades1001

 

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This HR means no invasion in Hokkaido from Alaska direction. This is a HR from the old WITP time though. We generally agree that the north frigid zone is too cold for any major operations. Thus an invasion like what Greyjoy did is not possible in my game. I have to admit that this is a great advantage for Japs but I still believe it's not practical in the war to invade Hokkaido directly by any means. Thus I just give up the "golden road" to victory
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: hades1001
Championzhao has the chance to just stuff every atoll in Marshall Islands to it's garrison limit. So there is no free lunch anymore, I have to prepare for Marshall bases if I want to take them. Especially those 30,000 limit atolls(Nauru Island etc...). I'm not sure what I want to do with Marshall Islands yet. Maybe take a few key bases and leave other atoll along and leave the Japs rotten there.


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Pax is talking about Saipan, Tinian & Guam for #5, you have been HR'd out of a northern approach unlees you head straight for Para Jima.




If he garrisons the Marshall's that heavily, he is open somewhere else or he has no depth.

Sorry, didn't know about the HR for the north ... that's a BIG advantage for IJ player .... So, you would have to build up Adak (unless "no war" means no units at all, not sure about your HR here) as your staging point and go for Hokkaido directly. I would almost bet the back door is wide open ... He's got too much force in India/China/Oz. Very hard and long time to re-orient your forces .... but if that is off limits due to the HR, simply plan to go in via the CentPac.


(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 300
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