This is the AAR Herwin is playing that caused him to look at LBA vs CV TF`s in detail. Post # 271 on is the crux...
I guess the mega question is, if the LBA launch factor is based on a simple fixed arithmetical relationship ( instead of the more achievable "soft" factors needed in WitP ), the LBA will never launch against KB Death Star, since the Allies will never reach those numbers outside of a built up Hawaiian Islands interlocking AB`s packed with fighters....or maybe in NE Oz. , thus there will never be any combat result 'die rolls" good or bad, because the attacks will never go in because they ( allies ) can never reach the " Magic Escort Number", with the Air OB they have early-mid game.
Nemo seems to imply here that the ratio is not absolute...but Herwin seems to think it is.....
Richard III, making waves in the Pacific since 2005...
There's a few reasons this has few replies....
1. Many of the "in" crowd simply prefer to ignore herwin rather than engaging with him. A significant portion of that disinclination is, IMO, because they couldn't engage with him on his terms without being shown to lack factual support for their arguments. Irrespective of the reason a lot of the "in crowd" steer clear.
2. The 2.5 : 1 ratio isn't all that surprising. It is obvious that the ratio is going to lie somewhere between 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 based on the simple principle that you want your escorting fighters to be as numerous as the defending CAP and you want your own CAP to be about 60% of your force.
3. This "magic number" is a good rule of thumb for the force you might want to have available before going into action against LBA etc but one shouldn't assume that simply because you have 300 fighters and are facing 100 fighters that your CVs are secure.
Opponent skill and inventiveness can still get strikes through even when the correlation of fighters is far more than 3 to 1 in favour of the friendly CV TF.
That's one of the things AE gets right.... You can't just say, "I've got overwhelming force, I'm 100~% secure". You'll get a bad die roll, bad weather or somesuch and a raid which should have been shredded will skip through your CAP plus there are many things an enemy can do to strike back at or negate the effectiveness of striking CV TFs.