Mike, I'm going to take exception to your numbers. Or maybe better to say, I feel the need to clarify them.
First, refining capacity doesn't matter in your first order analysis, only oil production as we will assume that you have ample refining capacity. So let's just start there.
Japan starts with 126 oil centers in Japan, but actually starts with 224 oil centers under its control (Scen 1). To this, in China and DEI (not including Burma for all the reasons mentioned) you can obtain another 2605 oil centers for a total of 2829 oil centers. This will refine to 25461 fuel/day (assuming enough refining capacity which is rarely a limitation).
Now let's look at HI, your industrial fuel consumer. You start with 6950 HI in your control as Japan. To that you have, within the same area as above, the opportunity to capture 1020 more. Let's assume though that this is captured at 50% damaged, thus 610 more before any repairs. Thus in total you have 7560 HI factories requiring 15120 fuel each day.
Your surplus steady state fuel for your empire is then 10341/day at your empires historical peak. Or if you want to back that to oil centers, 1149 excess oil centers over what you need for your industry.
Now, your major fuel consumer is your fleet. If you build your entire fleet, and have them at CRUISE speed, they potentially can use 83,970 fuel/day, at mission speed that is 251,908 fuel/day. Not suggesting that you will use this much, but as a player you have to understand that the IJN can and does use an incredible amount of fuel. This daily usage is entirely under player control. Disbanded in port, a ship uses zero fuel.
What do all these numbers mean?
Simple, taking the DEI gives you plenty of oil/fuel for you economy with NO expansion of HI. Your fleet, and it movements though, are what require the most careful consideration. When you read Mike's AAR's, note how carefully he plans all of his resource shipments. Why? To minimize fuel expenditure. Note how carefully he plans his expansions. Why? To minimize fuel expenditure. One of the best, and most simple tactics, that the allies can do is to simply force the KB to respond continually across its empire to threats. That response alone will eventually crash the empire economy for most players. You do not have the fuel to support it. The IJ fleet needs to be disbanded in port as close to 95% of the time as you can possibly do so to conserve fuel.
So, when looking at your oil/fuel numbers in your game if you are running short of fuel it means quite simply that you are moving more ships than your economy can support. The more HI expansion and repair that you do, the fewer ships you can move because the amount of oil/fuel you can get is essentially a fixed number.
All of the above is only a first order analysis. You can easily take this quite deeper.
PS: I did these calcs several years ago, but I'm not aware anything in the economy has changed in Scen 1 so these should be the same.
< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 1/16/2013 8:47:56 AM >