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RE: Wild Sheep Chase

 
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 7:19:36 AM   
Commander Cody


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Just wanted to let you know that I'm also reading both AARs and hope you two take this to failure for the edification of the community. My comments on Joc's AAR are related to game mechanics or beer. On this one, I'll keep it to game mechanics or scotch, although recently I had some Penderyn, a Welsh whisky, which went down quite well at the British Embassy pub.

Regarding overstacking, I used to do it a lot against the AI. You have to bring more supplies to the party, but it is possible with the level of shipping available to the good guys.

Cheers,
CC

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2671
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 10:36:02 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

IJA provides the escorts (Frank). IJN provides the strikes. Since by this time, I would plan for most of my CV groups to be available as their CV bases would be fish reefs, which means I have quite a few groups available (+20). Most of those planes are low SR, so they get used and then re-filled pretty quick. Its the escorts which you need so many of, call it 40 full-size (49 plane) Fighter groups to be able to take on the Allied Death Star. And of course the biggest challenge is scavenging up enough AF ENG units to actually base all of these groups ... Best place is Taihoku (9 hex from either Okinawa base), but that is risky and is hard to accomplish. Shanghai is 9 hex to the one base ...

I don't use too many 2E's as kami's ... too expensive and I've never had good success with them completing their attacks.


I hear ya Pax. I do have about 12 decks still around, and those are actually the most deadly semi-coodinating strikes I can make right now.

The issue I'll be facing soon as well is not enough planes to fill out the new LB groups that arrive. I had hoped to build a ton of the Ki-115, but that is looking like only 30 a month now.

So I have several options.

1. Use the old Sonias, Marys, Anns and Idas (gasp) to fill out these units. Mostly no range.

2. Use what comes with them, mostly bi-planes and trainers (gasp and choke a little).

3. Use a combo of the Ki-115 and 2E planes after converting groups to 2E.

4. Fill with Oscars???

Option 4 wins for me if possible. If not ...

... at least i'm building a decent amount of 2E planes, and I'm not at all worried about running out of HI (as I won't make it to 46 anyway, and my HI pool is still going up!!!). It'l still only be a one or two shot deal. Option 3 seems viable and I can always rely on options 1 and 2 after exhausting option 3 anyway if option 4 doesn't work. Yes?

_____________________________


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Post #: 2672
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 10:56:39 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Just wanted to let you know that I'm also reading both AARs and hope you two take this to failure for the edification of the community. My comments on Joc's AAR are related to game mechanics or beer. On this one, I'll keep it to game mechanics or scotch, although recently I had some Penderyn, a Welsh whisky, which went down quite well at the British Embassy pub.

Regarding overstacking, I used to do it a lot against the AI. You have to bring more supplies to the party, but it is possible with the level of shipping available to the good guys.

Cheers,
CC


I'll definitely keep it going. We've been through too much to stop now. It's interesting how little I have to worry about the actual details now, as virtually anything I can do could be exploited by Allied counters. I still get meticulous every few turns, just not as much as I used to do.

So it's really about trying enough stuff that something either catches him off guard or slips through. Probably similar to the last days of the DEI looking for that one naval strike or the few Stringbag TT hits on a CA or CV.

As for the Scotch, that is one I haven't tried. Is it more on the smoky side or more caramel/honey toned?

I like all types so if it's good I'm happy to give it a go. My recent purchases included a Balvenie, a Dalwhinnie (both at 20% off on special at Waitrose), and the Nikka. I've always loved Balvenie. Great balance of flavors. Jocke likes the big bold smoke of Laphroig and Ardbeg. I like the rich smokiness of Lagavulin slightly better and that added seaweedy taste.

As the red dots show below, though, I enjoy most styles equally!




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 12/16/2013 4:50:13 PM >


_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2673
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 12:07:59 PM   
obvert


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6 April 1945
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

STRAT BOMBING: A big set of combined strikes hit Nagasaki, Fukuoka and Hiroshima. The B-29B made it's first appearance and did meet some NF, getting a number shot down. I think around 8-10 on the day. They did seem to defend themselves though as well, hitting a few NF during the reply with their one turret. Lotsa bombs on the 'B' though which means lotsa HI hit even though they were very few in number.

In Nagasaki the B-29-1 did run into some more NF and some decent flak. Fukuoka was basically a free shot. A lot of HI lost there. Glad though because the we're almost out of fuel anyway and the LI is really the precious stuff now.

CHINA: The Allies get yet another 1:2 attack near Paoshan. Love it! Our troops are starting to break down though as now even the bombers from Hanoi are striking over here in addition to the several hundred from Ledo. However, the opportunity cost of breaking down 5 units in the Himalayas in April 45 with the entire Allied bombing force is pretty high! I'm not sure yet if the Chinese are getting flown supplies, as they haven't decided to cross into Kweiyang, but the Allied troops to the SE in China are surely the main thrust for now.

The tanks at Wuchow begin moving out of the city moving toward our current small blockade in the forest. I'm sure the Hanoi bombers will begin here soon. I'l have only two units at first, and if they hold, others will follow. I like this route begin taken much better than a move through the clear toward Canton.

No more supply will come into China, and all supply centers have been destroyed. I just read recently in the book on the war in China that when Ichigo began the Japanese had ammo good for two years (!!!) and fuel for six months for 200 bombers. I guess 4Es couldn't vaporize it all in airfield strikes in the war.

Most everything not Army HQ, infantry or arty is now out of the Canton - Hong Kong area. Now it's a defense to the last man. all of the extra stuff will be sent to Fusan, then across to Fukuoka to help get air support especially for large kami strikes to Kyushu bases.

HOME ISLANDS: Already reeling from a supply shortage, now the Beasts are back. I hope to guess right a few times, enough to take down a number of planes and hope that makes strikes more sporadic. Still a month or two away from the Randy Ic NF.

I sent in the works to Amami-Oshima. Three DD flotillas and three BB SAGs, but alas all Allied ships were gone already during the night phase. Jocke may not have even known what actually was coming unless he got good info from night search. All ships were back to Kyushu by morning.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR April 6, 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 24

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Heavy Industry hits 10

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-25 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Nagasaki/Sasebo , at 102,58

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 8

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak


Light Industry hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29-1 Superfort bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 20 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Hiroshima/Kure , at 106,58

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 11
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 7

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-29B Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak


Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-29B Superfort bombing from 9000 feet
City Attack: 36 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 40th Division, at 67,44 , near Paoshan

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 6
B-24J Liberator x 6
B-17F Fortress x 3
B-24J Liberator x 121
B-25D1 Mitchell x 9
B-25G Mitchell x 6
B-25H Mitchell x 6
B-25J1 Mitchell x 50
B-25J11 Mitchell x 38
P-38J Lightning x 27
P-38L Lightning x 55
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 15
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 27
PBJ-1H Mitchell x 3
PBJ-1J Mitchell x 3

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
447 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 56 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
13 x PBJ-1D Mitchell bombing from 6000 feet *
Ground Attack: 3 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 67,44 (near Paoshan)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 46032 troops, 872 guns, 539 vehicles, Assault Value = 1334

Defending force 31006 troops, 348 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 743

Allied adjusted assault: 1070

Japanese adjusted defense: 1180

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1363 casualties reported
Squads: 44 destroyed, 46 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
721 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 83 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Guns lost 23 (1 destroyed, 22 disabled)


Assaulting units:
23rd Indian Division
7th Indian Division
25th Indian Division
8th New Chinese Corps
2nd West African AA Regiment
1st Burma Auxiliary AA Regiment
117th RAF Base Force
3rd West African AA Regiment
4th West African AA Regiment
88th Medium Regiment
23rd AA Bde
56th Heavy Regiment
104th RAF Base Force
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment

Defending units:
19th Ind.Mixed Brigade
40th Division
104th Division
37th Division
1st Army

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Reinforcements:

ML G-603 arrives at Hiroshima/Kure
Yokosuka Ku S-2 arrives at Fukuoka
51st Army arrives at Utsonomiya
52nd Army arrives at Chiba
53rd Army arrives at Yokohama/Yokosuka
55th Army arrives at Kochi
57th Army arrives at Oita
58th Army arrives at Keijo
35th Ind. Hvy.Art. Battalion arrives at Utsonomiya
36th Ind. Hvy.Art. Battalion arrives at Yokohama/Yokosuka
37th Ind. Hvy.Art. Battalion arrives at Nagoya
24th RF Gun Battalion arrives at Chiba
27th RF Gun Battalion arrives at Tokyo
102nd AA Regiment arrives at Tokyo
93rd JAAF AF Bn arrives at Tokyo
188th JAAF AF Bn arrives at Tokyo
E Habuto arrives at Tokyo
APD T-16 arrives at Yokohama/Yokosuka


Losses: none.

Ships Sunk: none.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LR CAP and the Tojo's over Amami may have gotten a good haul of P-38s. Only thing I can see that got them. Nice to see a number of B-29s on this list, but it certainly is not a high cost for another 100 HI destroyed and another 20 LI gone. Now, though, actually, the LI is pure gold, so I hope the HI continues to be targeted.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 12/16/2013 1:08:34 PM >


_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2674
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 2:56:22 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

As the red dots show below, though, there are few styles I've tried that I haven't enjoyed!





My Scotch of choice is Glenmorangie and I see it's on your dislike list . I shy away from the peaty/bog flavoured. I much prefer it to either Glenfiddich or Glenlivet despite their popularity. I've tried Talisker, but I think if I just licked the tree out back I'd get the same experience.


< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/16/2013 4:00:44 PM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2675
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 3:41:43 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

As the red dots show below, though, there are few styles I've tried that I haven't enjoyed!



My Scotch of choice is Glenmorangie and I see it's on your dislike list . I shy away from the peaty/bog flavoured. I much prefer it to either Glenfiddich or Glenlivet despite their popularity. I've tried Talisker, but I think if I just licked the tree out back I'd get the same experience.



I may have not made it very clear what the red dots are about. Those are ones I've tried and LIKE! Just trying to show that i'm not in any one corner of the scotch preference scales.

The emptying of my Glenmorangie bottle (during the last days of the Manila siege ) made me go out and look for another good bottles. That's when I ran into the sale! I try to keep a few around, just to have some variety, but sales are dangerous!

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 2676
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 6:29:30 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I may have not made it very clear what the red dots are about. Those are ones I've tried and LIKE! Just trying to show that i'm not in any one corner of the scotch preference scales.

The emptying of my Glenmorangie bottle (during the last days of the Manila siege ) made me go out and look for another good bottles. That's when I ran into the sale! I try to keep a few around, just to have some variety, but sales are dangerous!


Well, that does clear it up . I think my current bottle is on it's last legs so I think I'll go get myself a new bottle in my travels this week. Don't mention sales! For you it's Scotch, and mine is of course models. Sometimes the internet is bad for me.


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2677
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 6:54:58 PM   
Feurer Krieg


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quote:

ow, though, actually, the LI is pure gold, so I hope the HI continues to be targeted.


Interesting. I've always assumed that if I expanded production it should be HI since the HI gets the supply too. But I hadn't thought about the late war and the fact that if you run out of fuel, that HI is useless.

How are resources in the Home Islands?

And, would you then suggest that if I'm going to spend supplies on expansion that I should do it on LI in the Home Islands? I'm going to start this now to maximize the return on the supply repair cost - it is early 42 in my game, so if I survive until 45 I'll have made a little bit back - more if it goes longer of course.

_____________________________


Upper portion used with permission of www.subart.net and www.skybirdart.com, copyright John Meeks

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2678
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 7:45:09 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Interesting. I've always assumed that if I expanded production it should be HI since the HI gets the supply too. But I hadn't thought about the late war and the fact that if you run out of fuel, that HI is useless.

How are resources in the Home Islands?

And, would you then suggest that if I'm going to spend supplies on expansion that I should do it on LI in the Home Islands? I'm going to start this now to maximize the return on the supply repair cost - it is early 42 in my game, so if I survive until 45 I'll have made a little bit back - more if it goes longer of course.


Expanding LI is a hot debate. There are those that say never expand LI and those that say expand it in some form. I think both views have merit, but it depends how you play Japan and whether it fits into your overall style of play. Could you use the supply needed for expanding LI elsewhere is the first question to ask yourself. Are you undermining your operations by using supply to expand? If you expand LI in the Home Islands you'll need to import more resources and use more fuel to do so. If you expand LI elsewhere, you run the risk of early destruction and never recuperating your expenditure.

You really have to think it through and decide what is best to meet your needs. It's not something to take on lightly. Personally I think expanding LI in moderation is a good idea, but you will have to give something up in return. That's always the way with Japan, it's either pay early or late for doing things differently, but you'll always pay.


< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/16/2013 8:46:48 PM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to Feurer Krieg)
Post #: 2679
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 7:50:39 PM   
Feurer Krieg


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Yea, I agree it requires thought. I always felt if you are going to any expansion of HI/LI it needs to be in 42 or forget it. I hadn't factored in the situation that we are seeing in this game though.

So now I'm thinking that outside of the Home Islands, HI expansion is warranted due to the fact that it can continue to use local fuel/resource production once cut off. In contrast, in the Home Islands, late game supply needs are causing me to think LI expansion would be better there.

Also, I should mention I'm playing DBB scenario 28, so I get no supply from refineries.

_____________________________


Upper portion used with permission of www.subart.net and www.skybirdart.com, copyright John Meeks

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 2680
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 8:04:30 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Yea, I agree it requires thought. I always felt if you are going to any expansion of HI/LI it needs to be in 42 or forget it. I hadn't factored in the situation that we are seeing in this game though.

So now I'm thinking that outside of the Home Islands, HI expansion is warranted due to the fact that it can continue to use local fuel/resource production once cut off. In contrast, in the Home Islands, late game supply needs are causing me to think LI expansion would be better there.

Also, I should mention I'm playing DBB scenario 28, so I get no supply from refineries.


Not to mention, it can save you Fuel for the same amount of HI since you won't have to ship it as far.

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.

(in reply to Feurer Krieg)
Post #: 2681
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 8:42:05 PM   
obvert


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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

quote:

ow, though, actually, the LI is pure gold, so I hope the HI continues to be targeted.


Interesting. I've always assumed that if I expanded production it should be HI since the HI gets the supply too. But I hadn't thought about the late war and the fact that if you run out of fuel, that HI is useless.

How are resources in the Home Islands?

And, would you then suggest that if I'm going to spend supplies on expansion that I should do it on LI in the Home Islands? I'm going to start this now to maximize the return on the supply repair cost - it is early 42 in my game, so if I survive until 45 I'll have made a little bit back - more if it goes longer of course.


I'll get a tracker update up soon, but last I checked they were enough for 4-5 months.

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2682
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 8:46:11 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.


Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure . I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe .

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/16/2013 9:48:04 PM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2683
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 8:47:10 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Yea, I agree it requires thought. I always felt if you are going to any expansion of HI/LI it needs to be in 42 or forget it. I hadn't factored in the situation that we are seeing in this game though.

So now I'm thinking that outside of the Home Islands, HI expansion is warranted due to the fact that it can continue to use local fuel/resource production once cut off. In contrast, in the Home Islands, late game supply needs are causing me to think LI expansion would be better there.

Also, I should mention I'm playing DBB scenario 28, so I get no supply from refineries.


Not to mention, it can save you Fuel for the same amount of HI since you won't have to ship it as far.

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.


Why I increased HI on Java, Malaya, Thailand and in Indochina.

The LI would be pretty good right now. Probably the best place for it would be in Manchuria. Off the strat bombing radar so far and easy shipping of supply to the HI from Fusan while resources are local. There is a huge glut now that every kind of industry in China is toast.

Hokkaido would be good as well, and the little base in Japan that have no manpower or other industry and would likely be bombed last. I think Joseph made a list a while back?

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 2684
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 8:58:20 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.


Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure . I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe .


I look at it like this: if I can make those savings anyway on my A6M production, then I should do so, regardless of what I do with the supply saved, for efficiency's sake. Therefore, cutting back elsewhere in order to pay for LI doesn't make sense to me. If I'm cutting back elsewhere, it's because I don't need the production. If I'd rather have the supply than expand the factory, then I just don't expand the factory. If I would then rather invest that saved supply into an expansion that will pay off in 1100 days, then I consider it on its own merits. If I don't expand, I'll have 1100 more supply points in my stockpile right away vs. if I did expand. Or 550 more than if I expanded, 550 days from now. Or only 100 more, 3 years from now.

But to each their own tricks for maximizing their efficiency.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
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RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 8:59:27 PM   
catwhoorg


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Rather partial to a Macallan myself.

In that diagram I'm very much on the rich side, and Oban is as normally as smoky as I get.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2686
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 9:02:39 PM   
obvert


Posts: 6968
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.


Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure . I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe .


I look at it like this: if I can make those savings anyway on my A6M production, then I should do so, regardless of what I do with the supply saved, for efficiency's sake. Therefore, cutting back elsewhere in order to pay for LI doesn't make sense to me. If I'm cutting back elsewhere, it's because I don't need the production. If I'd rather have the supply than expand the factory, then I just don't expand the factory. If I would then rather invest that saved supply into an expansion that will pay off in 1100 days, then I consider it on its own merits. If I don't expand, I'll have 1100 more supply points in my stockpile right away vs. if I did expand. Or 550 more than if I expanded, 550 days from now. Or only 100 more, 3 years from now.

But to each their own tricks for maximizing their efficiency.


Why not expand HI in the DEI heavily, then expand LI in the Home Islands that will be paid for by the extra supply from the DEI you don't have to ship down there and the fuel saved for not having to ship the fuel to the HI?

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2687
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 9:04:24 PM   
Feurer Krieg


Posts: 3060
Joined: 6/15/2005
From: Denver, CO
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This is probably the short version of what I am going to do.

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Upper portion used with permission of www.subart.net and www.skybirdart.com, copyright John Meeks

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Post #: 2688
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 9:26:29 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 2872
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Why not expand HI in the DEI heavily, then expand LI in the Home Islands that will be paid for by the extra supply from the DEI you don't have to ship down there and the fuel saved for not having to ship the fuel to the HI?


This is it exactly. You can pay for the LI expansion in any number of ways. I'm saying it's misleading to just say it's going to take you 1100 days to recover the expenditure, it doesn't if you pay by other means or make different choices. If you make those decisions right from day one as Lokasenna says, then I'd rather invest that 1100 supply into expanding LI so it's there for me in the late game rather than have it sitting around doing nothing for 3 years if I'm not going to use it anyway. LI expansion is an investment, it's that simple. You either invest for the late game, or hope your initial supply generating capacity lasts you for the entire war.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/16/2013 10:27:43 PM >


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Post #: 2689
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 9:47:57 PM   
obvert


Posts: 6968
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg

Rather partial to a Macallan myself.

In that diagram I'm very much on the rich side, and Oban is as normally as smoky as I get.


Oban is so well known and liked, and yet for some reason I just don't love it. It's a kind of fruity something I taste I think.

Macallan is a default as they serve it everywhere an fit rolls over the tongue so easily.

I have a food snobby friend who insist good scotch needs a drop of water to 'open up.' I usually have it either neat or with one ice cube.

How does everyone else drink their favorites?

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2690
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/16/2013 11:46:22 PM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In terms of supply, you need 1100 days to break even on LI expansion. So if you want to be in the black on supply expenditure on 1/1/45, you have to expand on 1/1/42. You need 550 days to break even on HI expansion, but you'll also burn up your fuel/oil faster. Resources you have plenty of, so that's not a consideration for the LI expansion.


Not necessarily and this is something I think is often overlooked. An example is over spending on air expansion. I spent too much on my A6M2 factory to the tune of 50k worth of supply. That's 45.5 LI that could have been expanded and paid off within 50 days. Why only fifty and not 1100 days/LI point? Well I don't spend the 50k on expanding the A6M2 factory of course. Voodoo economics? Sure . I guess the point I'm trying to make is you can pay for LI expansion in other ways and be in the black much sooner, you just have to give something up as I mentioned before. I know for a fact that if I eliminate a number of mistakes I made production wise in my AAR I could have spent 150k supply for LI expansion instead. I think paying for LI expansion has to be looked at differently. It you make some smart choices and streamline your production there's supply available to expand LI which might take some strain off the late game. Maybe .


I look at it like this: if I can make those savings anyway on my A6M production, then I should do so, regardless of what I do with the supply saved, for efficiency's sake. Therefore, cutting back elsewhere in order to pay for LI doesn't make sense to me. If I'm cutting back elsewhere, it's because I don't need the production. If I'd rather have the supply than expand the factory, then I just don't expand the factory. If I would then rather invest that saved supply into an expansion that will pay off in 1100 days, then I consider it on its own merits. If I don't expand, I'll have 1100 more supply points in my stockpile right away vs. if I did expand. Or 550 more than if I expanded, 550 days from now. Or only 100 more, 3 years from now.

But to each their own tricks for maximizing their efficiency.


Why not expand HI in the DEI heavily, then expand LI in the Home Islands that will be paid for by the extra supply from the DEI you don't have to ship down there and the fuel saved for not having to ship the fuel to the HI?


Ok, that's valid . I latched onto the aircraft factory example as something I wouldn't do.

I don't know what your definition of "heavily" is in the DEI, but I wouldn't expand past its limits. Which is to say, not very much expansion. I wouldn't expand the refineries, really, so you'll still be shipping Oil (which you'd be doing anyway, given Japan's deficit). I would expand the HI to match the refinery output, but no further. In my AI game, I expanded the HI on Java to almost match the refinery output of Java but didn't include Balikpapan, as that Fuel was earmarked for fleet operations. I didn't expand quite all the way to the refinery production because I wanted my ships to refuel at Java without slowly depleting the stocks of Fuel there and without having to ship Fuel from Balikpapan or PBangers to Java.

I actually find that, even without expanding the HI in Java, I don't have to ship Supply to the DEI after the early expansion phase. But I haven't had a human player knocking on the DEI's door, so I probably don't know anything.


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2691
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 12:40:18 AM   
catwhoorg


Posts: 638
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From: Uk expat lving near Atlanta
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Always neat for single malts.

I do occasionally mix a blend with some Ginger Wine on a cold winters evening. Not that you have many in Atlanta, but when I was in Dundee...

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Post #: 2692
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 2:37:55 AM   
Commander Cody


Posts: 863
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
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I like one ice cube to "open it up." A friend of mine whose opinion I respect on that taught me. Luckily the local British Embassy has an excellent single-malt selection at pretty reasonable prices and I've tried most of those, at least the 10s and 12s, on the chart.

I'd put Penderyn, which is actually a "welsh," not scotch, near the Bunnahabhain. Did a Japanese single-malt tasting the other month and really liked the Hibiki 21. Alas, even in the U.S. it's something like $250 a bottle.

Cheers,
CC

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

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Post #: 2693
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 2:54:38 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 5713
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If you expand HI in the DEI, but run out of fuel before your HI industry in completely shutdown, one could argue that you wasted supply with the expansion. Your optimal amount of HI production is that you run out of fuel at the same time the B-29's dismember your final factory. Yes, there is some fuel savings for shipment ... but that comes at 1000 supply. Ask Obvert if he could use some supply now.

IJ economy is easy to over expand in '42. Be it AC factories or HI expansion. Either way, you are burning up supply @ 1000/factory that you cannot afford in the long run. This is why so many late games right now are so short of supply. Refer back to the MikeS AAR's. He increases factories one or two at a time, not one or two hundred. Just because you can put 20x30 factories researching Shinden doesn't mean you should, even if you get the plane in '43. That cost you 660,000 supply. Ditto all the other models. I routinely see IJ players with 91x30 AC factories ... that means that they have spent at least 1,500,000 supply not including model changes and the engine factory expansions to match ... Wow. THe IJ economy cannot support these types of supply expenditures and that is why IRL they did not do it ... it took them until 1945 to get to +2000 AC/month. Not in 1942 ... It will do you no good to have 25000 AC in 1945 if you have no supply. You cannot fight without supply, and you need LOTS of it. I (Mike did too) checked some of my old games ... I've never had less than 1M more supply than HI into '45 ... usually its more like 2M more (so 7M supply, 5M HI). Think through your ecxonomy carefully ...

_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 2694
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 2:58:25 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 5713
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

If you expand HI in the DEI, but run out of fuel before your HI industry in completely shutdown, one could argue that you wasted supply with the expansion. Your optimal amount of HI production is that you run out of fuel at the same time the B-29's dismember your final factory. Yes, there is some fuel savings for shipment ... but that comes at 1000 supply. Ask Obvert if he could use some supply now.

IJ economy is easy to over expand in '42. Be it AC factories or HI expansion. Either way, you are burning up supply @ 1000/factory that you cannot afford in the long run. This is why so many late games right now are so short of supply. Refer back to the MikeS AAR's. He increases factories one or two at a time, not one or two hundred. Just because you can put 20x30 factories researching Shinden doesn't mean you should, even if you get the plane in '43. That cost you 660,000 supply. Ditto all the other models. I routinely see IJ players with 91x30 AC factories ... that means that they have spent at least 1,500,000 supply not including model changes and the engine factory expansions to match ... Wow. THe IJ economy cannot support these types of supply expenditures and that is why IRL they did not do it ... it took them until 1945 to get to +2000 AC/month. Not in 1942 ... It will do you no good to have 25000 AC in 1945 if you have no supply. You cannot fight without supply, and you need LOTS of it. I (Mike did too) checked some of my old games ... I've never had less than 1M more supply than HI into '45 ... usually its more like 2M more (so 7M supply, 5M HI). Think through your ecxonomy carefully ...

PS: I need to add that I rarely have built HI (I actually cannot recall having done so, but maybe I did once) ... there is no need. If I need HI, I take it, I do not build it. Building HI only increases your HI pool faster, it NEVER gives you more HI. Since you should always have a large HI pool, there is no need to build it faster ... so long as it is built, nothing more is needed.



_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 2695
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 6:28:01 AM   
obvert


Posts: 6968
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

I like one ice cube to "open it up." A friend of mine whose opinion I respect on that taught me. Luckily the local British Embassy has an excellent single-malt selection at pretty reasonable prices and I've tried most of those, at least the 10s and 12s, on the chart.

I'd put Penderyn, which is actually a "welsh," not scotch, near the Bunnahabhain. Did a Japanese single-malt tasting the other month and really liked the Hibiki 21. Alas, even in the U.S. it's something like $250 a bottle.

Cheers,
CC


I was in Berlin a while back and a fellow traveller came into the hotel lobby late as I was using the internet there. (Probably checking the AE forum!)

He brought out a bottle of Hibiki 21! Offered me a glass, then a few more. We had a good long talk and topped up the hangover for the next morning. Very good stuff.

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Commander Cody)
Post #: 2696
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 7:14:16 AM   
Commander Cody


Posts: 863
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I was in Berlin a while back and a fellow traveller came into the hotel lobby late as I was using the internet there. (Probably checking the AE forum!)

He brought out a bottle of Hibiki 21! Offered me a glass, then a few more. We had a good long talk and topped up the hangover for the next morning. Very good stuff.


Wow, that story brings a tear to my eye. That's easily the best whiskey I've ever tried.

Cheers,
CC

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2697
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 7:42:23 AM   
obvert


Posts: 6968
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

If you expand HI in the DEI, but run out of fuel before your HI industry in completely shutdown, one could argue that you wasted supply with the expansion. Your optimal amount of HI production is that you run out of fuel at the same time the B-29's dismember your final factory. Yes, there is some fuel savings for shipment ... but that comes at 1000 supply. Ask Obvert if he could use some supply now.

IJ economy is easy to over expand in '42. Be it AC factories or HI expansion. Either way, you are burning up supply @ 1000/factory that you cannot afford in the long run. This is why so many late games right now are so short of supply. Refer back to the MikeS AAR's. He increases factories one or two at a time, not one or two hundred. Just because you can put 20x30 factories researching Shinden doesn't mean you should, even if you get the plane in '43. That cost you 660,000 supply. Ditto all the other models. I routinely see IJ players with 91x30 AC factories ... that means that they have spent at least 1,500,000 supply not including model changes and the engine factory expansions to match ... Wow. THe IJ economy cannot support these types of supply expenditures and that is why IRL they did not do it ... it took them until 1945 to get to +2000 AC/month. Not in 1942 ... It will do you no good to have 25000 AC in 1945 if you have no supply. You cannot fight without supply, and you need LOTS of it. I (Mike did too) checked some of my old games ... I've never had less than 1M more supply than HI into '45 ... usually its more like 2M more (so 7M supply, 5M HI). Think through your ecxonomy carefully ...


Curiously, could you post some shots of what you do have in 42 building, and researching? I'm trying to get an idea of how you would set that up to both prepare for the long haul and not over expand.

Also, are these games you reference in PBEM, and did you sit back and wait after the DEI was captured or did you push further?

So many factors determine supply usage. Factory expansion is one, but I'd have to say that in China I used a huge amount of supply that ended up being only partially justified due to our subsequent agreement to keep China a factor with a reserve zone. I'm happy the game kept going, but had I captured the industry in the center the supply usage might have been made up a lot more and justified by never having to send more there to fight again, as I have in the current continuation of the game.

Also, in those games how soon did your opponent get into bombing range and start strat bombing manpower? That eats supply as del as the factories that make it. I don't now if having a large pile in Tokyo and/or Osaka would have saved me here since that would have been subject to burning up too.

In PBEM the key is making it to 45!! There are quite a few games that end well before this, and some that seem to be going fine and dribble into 45 before falling part completely.

As we were talking earlier in this AAR about LI even Mike Solli was considering massive expenditures to increase LI so as to have a cushion of production in the HI in late game. I think Pax that you're one of the few IJ players active in these discussions that does have extensive experience of 45, so you can help us a lot to figure out how to prepare well for it. If you had so much HI and supply what did you give up? What did you not do? How did you make it to the end?

< Message edited by obvert -- 12/17/2013 8:43:02 AM >


_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2698
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 8:15:10 AM   
obvert


Posts: 6968
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I was in Berlin a while back and a fellow traveller came into the hotel lobby late as I was using the internet there. (Probably checking the AE forum!)

He brought out a bottle of Hibiki 21! Offered me a glass, then a few more. We had a good long talk and topped up the hangover for the next morning. Very good stuff.


Wow, that story brings a tear to my eye. That's easily the best whiskey I've ever tried.

Cheers,
CC


I gave a Balvenie 21 to a friend for his wedding ,and he graciously let me sip it with him later. That was incredible. One of those you can drink for an hour where every drop fills your whole mouth with flavor.

Now I want to try this one!

http://uk.thebalvenie.com/our-range/fifty-aged-50-years

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2699
RE: Wild Sheep Chase - 12/17/2013 1:13:05 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 5713
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

... in China I used a huge amount of supply that ended up being only partially justified due to our subsequent agreement to keep China a factor with a reserve zone. I'm happy the game kept going,


That was a HUGE gift you gave him at the time, one that I do not think he fully appreciates yet. And yes, that one alone complicates the your supply situation a lot.

I'll try and dig up some old savegames. Yes, I only play against the AI (as you know). No, I never sit back because against my opponent (Andy AI) in the scenarios I play (Nasty or Nasty Nasty Ironman) you can't. I face Essex class beginning on Dec 7, 1941 and Iowa and Alaska class show up in '42.

He starts night Strat Bombing from China at 5000 ft usually on Dec 10, 1941. It makes the china campaign imperative. It is also very much more difficult as most bases have organic supply added to them. I cannot starve a base, I have to assemble enough AV to take it. Wenchow is critical early on given its distance to the HI, and it is a VERY hard nut to crack. It has +2000 AV and one of the Corps is at full strength and +50 exp, and of course Wenchow has a lot of internal supply generation. I have to put lilterally, every bomber I own on it along with all of the AV I can find to take it by mid-Jan. And you still have to stay on a tight time table in the DEI as all of those bases get reinforcements in Q1Y42. If you delay your DEI op's, you start to face large AV's in ALL of the oil centers. Yeah, its challenging ... not PBEM by any means, but still challenging.

Here are some AC factory numbers for '42 for my next game that I am getting ready to start (These are combined IJA/IJN numbers in monthly production)
1E fighters: 180
1E bombers: 120
2E Bombers: 120

R&D (These are mostly 6x30 factories, a couple might be only 3x30).
Tojo
Helen
Frank
Sam
George

I'll start my 4th gen fighter R&D late '42. That will be Shinden and either Ki-83 or Ki-202 ... haven't decided yet on the IJA model. Always a tough choice for me. Karyu is much faster and a lot more deadly in defense. But that means my only escort fighter will be the George which in '45 is just VP's to be harvested. The Ki-83 gives me a viable escort for counter attacks ... It is always a tough choice for me ... historically, i decide in game depending upon how my CV actions have gone.

While this is against the AI, I am also facing TBolts/Stangs/Spits FAR earlier and in far greater numbers than a stock game. Also, Allied pilots enter the game at ~60 exp ... so my training programs are crucial.

Anyway, you can see that I spend less than 300K supply on R&D ... and for production including engines, way less than a 1M in '42. HI supply never drops below 1.25M and after Feb 42 is always rising. HI pools start to rise in about March 42 and by July I'm banking about 1800/day.

There's my blueprint. Totally stolen from Mike Solli +4 years ago. I've tweaked it a bit, but not much. I turn off Merchant building sooner than he does, R&D a little less maybe, but essentially it is Mike Solli.

_____________________________

Pax

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