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Turn 14: 18th Sep '41

 
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Turn 14: 18th Sep '41 - 12/11/2011 12:22:38 AM   
Toidi

 

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The recent success definitely boosted morale of my troops around Moscow and they held a few times. The resistance was overcome, but STAVKA guess is that plans of OKH have not been carried out as intended.

Situation below:




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< Message edited by Toidi -- 12/11/2011 12:23:16 AM >

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RE: Turn 14: 18th Sep '41 - 12/11/2011 12:33:29 AM   
Toidi

 

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The troops at Leningrad did not show that much elan as those at Moscow... Or maybe it is due to the bad supply, fatigue and lower ammo levels? Or maybe the Germans just go lucky with x4 multiplier?

Whatever the cause is STAVKA is not happy with Tolbukhin who did not sent any reinforcements to the city despite having rifle brigade in reserve status... Or maybe it was due to the river crossing and thus not enough MP?

Whatever the reason, STAVKA concluded that Tolbukhin disappointed with the second battle. Zhukov opposed slightly that there was no error made in defense, just the Jerry was too strong, but this view is the minority view.




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RE: Turn 14: 18th Sep '41 - 12/11/2011 1:26:21 AM   
Toidi

 

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Stavka managed to make several encirclements of German troops. Those should hamper supply and slow the offensive down...

Also, the vulnerable SS division got encircled and routed. The other tank division did not (not enough MP).

As we wanted to report good news to the troops in Moscow to boost morale, we made a small offensive against Romanians in the south. The encirclement there may hold (ok, it is not very likely, but it will require some effort to free those troops, and maybe some emergency help from the German mobile forces).




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Turn 15: 25th Sep '41 - 12/16/2011 9:27:57 AM   
Toidi

 

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Leningrad has fallen...

Though it took 3 attacks... I don't blame Tolbukhin too much, OKH really wanted Leningrad...




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RE: Turn 15: 25th Sep '41 - 12/16/2011 9:34:38 AM   
Toidi

 

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The rest of the front was not too bad. There is an encirclement around Moscow, but that was almost taken into account as a delaying strategy to hold the capital (though, unfortunately, it seems to be tight). To my surprise, the Romanians just withdrew and left the troops, instead of fighting for them...






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RE: Turn 15: 25th Sep '41 - 12/16/2011 10:30:03 AM   
Toidi

 

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All the forces in the south were cut from supplies, I guess as expected. Issue is that next turn they will get connected, but will not move out... And later on we have only turn 17 and mud... May be difficult for OKH, but maybe those guys can be saved...

As for Moscow, I guess no frontal assault is in mind of OKH, so I did not pile troops there...

In the north situation is a bit similar, but those infantry can easily be saved, maybe with a little help from mobile forces which were just moved towards Moscow.

Situation after turn 15 below:




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< Message edited by Toidi -- 12/16/2011 10:34:02 AM >

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Turn 16: 2nd Oct '41 - 12/17/2011 7:59:00 AM   
Toidi

 

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Stavka meeting was much more relaxed this time. Finally everyone started to believe that Moscow will not be taken... And the latest maneuvers by OKH, in the view of likely rain in just two weeks were best summarized by Zhukov: "They took insane risk"

Despite maybe 50000 troops taken into custody in Leningrad, the spirits were definitely high.




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RE: Turn 16: 2nd Oct '41 - 12/17/2011 8:18:25 AM   
Toidi

 

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The encirclements will most likely be more trouble for the OKH than for Stavka

My moves below:




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RE: Turn 16: 2nd Oct '41 - 12/17/2011 8:25:51 AM   
Toidi

 

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Also, being in a really good mood, STAVKA launched some small offensive in Crimea region:




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RE: Turn 16: 2nd Oct '41 - 12/17/2011 8:29:05 AM   
Toidi

 

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The only quiet moment was when an awkward toast was made: to the memory of courageous defenders of Leningrad...

but well, it is difficult to have full success in each and every front...




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Turn 17: 9th Oct '41 - 12/20/2011 10:09:53 AM   
Toidi

 

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In the view of the forecasted rain (more than 80% chance) STAVKA started to celebrate. Moscow held, as well as Stalino and Zaporozhye. Additionally, some divisions are encircled and some Axis troops seem to be overly extended and in danger.

Situation below:






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RE: Turn 17: 9th Oct '41 - 12/20/2011 10:11:43 AM   
Toidi

 

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In Crimea it is likely we will encircle one more Romanian division:




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RE: Turn 17: 9th Oct '41 - 12/20/2011 10:13:21 AM   
Toidi

 

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In Finland, 4 divisions are likely lost:




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RE: Turn 17: 9th Oct '41 - 12/20/2011 10:32:33 AM   
Toidi

 

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The final position of armies below. It is highly likely that some Axis tank, motorized, infantry and cavalry will be destroyed during mud turn.

In Moscow we celebrate, made a huge military parade and sent additional stock of vodka and Shampanskoye Igristoye to shops! Atmosphere of celebration is widespread!




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RE: Turn 17: 9th Oct '41 - 12/20/2011 11:02:09 AM   
Mike29

 

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Our congratulation! "Shampanskoe igristoe"? ))) Nice knowledge of Russian drinks, but this just misinformation of NKVD. )) According information from "ABVER" STAVKA drank "Kindzmarauli" (red Georgian wine, Stalin's favourive).

Well, It was epic battle. Hoepner was in time, but unfortunately Guderian was too late (Seems that 700 000 lost in Great Ukrainian pocket weren't vain), they (me) could not close "Tula pocket" and made another mistake running to fast to Ryazan and Oka river. Defense in Nothern sector was also too strong. Taking into consideration bad weather expectations, OKH decided to avoid risks and postpone advance to Moscow until 1942. Battle of Moscow is lost but war is continues.

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RE: Turn 17: 9th Oct '41 - 12/20/2011 11:48:22 AM   
Toidi

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike29

Our congratulation! "Shampanskoe igristoe"? ))) Nice knowledge of Russian drinks, but this just misinformation of NKVD. )) According information from "ABVER" STAVKA drank "Kindzmarauli" (red Georgian wine, Stalin's favourive).

Well, It was epic battle. Hoepner was in time, but unfortunately Guderian was too late (Seems that 700 000 lost in Great Ukrainian pocket weren't vain), they (me) could not close "Tula pocket" and made another mistake running to fast to Ryazan and Oka river. Defense in Nothern sector was also too strong. Taking into consideration bad weather expectations, OKH decided to avoid risks and postpone advance to Moscow until 1942. Battle of Moscow is lost but war is continues.


My feeling is that in summer '41 you overextended your forces few times... Also, you are brilliant tactician and great encircler but sometimes I had a feeling that this tactics does not fit into big plan. Unfortunately, '42 is all about encirclements, so I expect troubles... Huge troubles...

In the end, I think the biggest mistake you made is that you should never allowed me to evacuate my forces from the Pripyat marshes... But whole offensive in the south started badly for you with the leaky Lviv pocket (I opened it only just) and the mud came in not the most fortunate moment... Still, if not for the evacuation of Pripyat marshes, from where I got like extra 10 divisions, you would get much less troubles in the south. This is also why the huge pocked did not destroy my army totally (but almost)- some of the units there were from the Pripyat, and those are usually lost in the first few turns...

Apart of the encirclement, the most difficult bit for me was when you raided through my units in marshes around Pskov to finish the encirclement and when you got the single rail hex east of Leningrad. If not for destroying this rail, I probably would be able to fight much longer for Leningrad, or maybe even hold it... My other mistake was not evacuating Kharkov T34 in time and getting just a single KV from Leningrad...

On the bright side, I am still happy with the evacuation of armaments - there are still shortages, but the amount I have should allow me to build a proper offensive in '43 and hopefully resist you somehow in '42 [that may be devilishly difficult with your tactical skills, but I will do my best]. I expect to lose most of the manpower I still hold during '42 I'm afraid - and if alongside the manpower I will lose significant part of the army, that may flip the game in your favour.

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RE: Turn 17: 9th Oct '41 - 12/20/2011 12:16:44 PM   
Mike29

 

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Yes, you summed up precisely results of summer campaign, and they are near historical excluding Leningrad. In my opinion your biggest mistake of the summer - you send your elite units to save little Pskov pocket (and just increase this pocket) instead of defense Staraya Russa and Tihkvin. I was lucky near lake Ilmen, but even one unit near Tikhvin might save Leningrad. Then I sow some kind of panic in North. You already bring a lot of units to Tikhvin, but why you left Luga line?

But all your next moves in North and center were near perfect. Mud in the South and my risky strategy broke my plans in Ukrain, and Guderian was late to Moscow being engaged with the Great pocket. But generally I am satisfied with the results, and this game still has intrigue for 1942.

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Turn 21: 6th Nov '41 - 12/22/2011 12:21:41 AM   
Toidi

 

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Mud turns were more entertaining than usual, but it does not mean they were action packed. Nevertheless, some of the Axis units surrounded on turn 17 has surrendered. There were also some fun in the very north... We had some snow in the central zone, but OKH did not attack.

Anyway, situation before snow (theoretically) should hit below.




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RE: Turn 21: 6th Nov '41 - 12/22/2011 12:27:02 AM   
Toidi

 

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In Finland STAVKA managed to cut of the Finns for a while. Unfortunately our units are so weak that the cut off Finns are stronger and no attack is possible...

I never before got odds 0:0 but well...

STAVKA is prepared for a last push by the OKH in the snow that is coming. Also, it is slowly building reserves for the winter offensive.





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Turn 24: 27th Nov '41 - 12/24/2011 6:55:51 AM   
Toidi

 

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Snow turns were a bit less entertaining that usual. OKH decided to withdraw, to the previously prepared fortification. STAVKA was worried about last minute encirclement so proceeded very carefully.

Most action happened in the Moscow area where OKH left a screen of infantry brigades and it has been decided that it is a good target for harvesting wins.

The turn before the blizzard, before any moves below (all the relevant data included on screen):




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RE: Turn 24: 27th Nov '41 - 12/24/2011 7:18:23 AM   
Toidi

 

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OKH is trying linear defense... As my army is relatively small and understrength, this may work, especially in the north. As such, north will be the first assault, as only then the line will be breakable. Also, logistics there is very good, whereas in south the rail needs to be build first to allow for proper offensive.

Situation after my moves, before first blizzard turn, below:




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T25 & 26: Blizzard began - 12/28/2011 9:44:26 AM   
Toidi

 

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We in STAVKA held high hopes for the true winter that was coming, as reports suggested that Germans are badly prepared for the winter. Those reports, unfortunately, has been found to be highly exaggerated. The German soldiers were excellently prepared for the blizzard and in great supply, in lvl 2 entrenchments. As it seems, the Soviet army lacked the punch in the beginning to make any significant breach in the German army.

First turn of blizzard below:




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RE: T25 & 26: Blizzard began - 12/28/2011 9:50:08 AM   
Toidi

 

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The German losses were very disappointing. Turn 26 was slightly better, but nothing close to the expectations. As such, the initial hopes for progress in blizzard has been found to be nothing more than wishful thinking. Stavka decided to start building entrenchments a bit deeper in the country - this is the line we hope to hold until June '42.

The blizzard offensive looks bad. 5 millions guys in the army, rested divisions sent to front, and barely a dent made in the defense...

As for OKH, it is a bit passive. It generally attacks to free the surrounded units, those attacks are with good deal of success.


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RE: T25 & 26: Blizzard began - 12/28/2011 9:53:07 AM   
Toidi

 

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Situation after turn 26:




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RE: T25 & 26: Blizzard began - 12/28/2011 9:58:56 AM   
Toidi

 

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In turn 26 only a single regiment of German division destroyed... The destroyed Soviet units are from the north of Finland...






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< Message edited by Toidi -- 12/28/2011 9:59:06 AM >

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RE: T25 & 26: Blizzard began - 12/28/2011 11:29:27 PM   
Pelton

 

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Looks to me if you can keep pressing the line will break badly. 5 million men is about average for Blizzard.

Generally when I have a bad winter it for me falls apart in early january.

Once you pick off a few Divisions thing fall apart quickly.

Also the main issue for you is building your morale and droping his.

Pelton

_____________________________

GHC
22 - 4 - 8

15 games ended in 41 (15-0-0)
7 games ended in 42 (5-0-2)
8 games ended in 43 (2-3-3)
4 games ended in 44 (0-1-3)


General Cheesefinder of WitW

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afmyypGyfng&list=PLrY4H4gWWBircAjo

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RE: T25 & 26: Blizzard began - 12/29/2011 12:11:07 AM   
Toidi

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Looks to me if you can keep pressing the line will break badly. 5 million men is about average for Blizzard.

Generally when I have a bad winter it for me falls apart in early january.

Once you pick off a few Divisions thing fall apart quickly.

Also the main issue for you is building your morale and droping his.

Pelton


I'm not sure you tried entrenching in the newest patch. This time it really can work, IMHO - and even forts lvl 2 are sometimes enough (I can squash them, but it is a major effort; level 3 would be very tough). As you know we are playing a few turns in advance and as soon as I get a new turn from Mike, I will post next two weeks...

The issue is that for my prepared attack to be successful I need more or less 2.5:1 in initial (on map) CV in December (so taking into account display doubling of my CV it is 1.2:1), 2.5-3:1 or more in January and at least 3:1 in February (preferably 4:1, so 2:1 after factoring the 2x display cv increase)). After 2-3 failed attack, the very well refit division needs to be sent to refit again- as such I need as few of those as possible - and I was way too optimistic in the first two turns about the odds, and sappers reducing forts. As such, in the first two turns I got ratio of about 60-70% success in attack. Too little to have the offensive sustainable. Afterwards I use more forces, it got better, but still, it was difficult to keep divisions in strength (i.e. above 8000 guys - below that the division is not combat worthy anymore), having few digging armies and preparing reserves for the march snow.

Also, there are three more issues which made the blizzard more difficult for me:

(1) the support units which can be stronger than the division I attack itself (happened to me many times during this blizzard, attacking division of cv 40 in the battle screen, and getting pioneers of cv 50; total of SU equal to cv of division happened maybe 10-20% of time),
(2) armored reserve (kills pretty much any attack, Mike is very good at setting it and it took me much thought to go around that) and,
(3) the inability of my sappers to remove forts... It has not happened to me in the whole blizzard that my sappers removed fort level during a failed attack. The attack either works, or not... If it works, it is hard to say whether the fort was removed by sappers or not - when it doesn't - well the fort *always* stayed the same level.

The reduction in German cv due to failed checks happened relatively little to me. I would say, the chance my cv will be divided by 4, contrary to the usual 2 is perhaps bigger than the chance the German CV will be crippled. It can be divided by 2 due to bad supply, ammo issues etc, especially if I bomb the unit before and get it fatigued and into 'red' supply status [in the unit corner, soft factor] (or is in red supply) but I found dividing cv due to blizzard as relatively rare. I asked Mike about that and he said that he upgraded his leaders to the best possible and that he spent majority of AP on those. Maybe that is the reason. Again, I did the calculations and it seems to me that for average check, the chance of failure for German is maybe 15% - as Mike upgraded leaders that probably fell to maybe 10%. As in my understanding 2 checks are made, this means that the reduction due to blizzard happen maybe in 1-0.9x0.9 - around 20% cases - way too rare to rely on it.

Anyway, I will keep on reporting so you can see the progress... I am really keen to see how things will unwind in '42, but I expect it to be a very, very tough year.

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RE: T36 & 37: Blizzard end and my resignation - 1/7/2012 1:43:16 AM   
Toidi

 

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Following Turn 36 (snow in the south and centre) leading to Axis attacking and encircling my troops





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RE: T36 & 37: Blizzard end and my resignation - 1/7/2012 1:43:54 AM   
Toidi

 

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and turn 37 (snow in the south, blizzard everywhere else)





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RE: T36 & 37: Blizzard end and my resignation - 1/7/2012 1:55:00 AM   
Toidi

 

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I have been released from the position. JAMiAM will kindly continue defending the SU and hopefully will put the red banner on Reichstag in '44.

My advice for the future players is that limited defense in '41 is possible and advisable.
During blizzard press and attack, but never overextend yourself; Keep your divisions healthy and in good TOE. Also, don't create ski batallions, they are not worth anything ;)
In '42, my opinion is that currently it is difficult and not advisable to defend in the south in '42, as you don't have the points to replace lost and encircled divisions. In the more favourable terrain, when the chance of encirclement is small, defending is advisable. Do multiply the strength of Axis troops you see by two; even then you will face some nasty surprises...

For my successor, thank you for taking over myself. I would like to wish best of luck. Also, I leave three envelopes... with instructions what to do when you run into inevitable troubles.

**********************************************************************************************

1st envelope instructions: say that all what is happening is my fault and you just did not have enough time to steer out of troubles
2nd envelope instructions: say that the generals were responsible and that they cannot lead, though your plan was impeccable
3rd envelope instructions: prepare three envelopes for your successor and leave...

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