From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Just in the nick of time. I was about to post my "new" Japanese setup in China . . .
If there is a Japanese Land unit in Canton, this attack can be risked, provided this unit is a corps/army and moves to the place where the 5-3 is at this moment, and if you're prepared to risk getting a flipped unit OOS in a woods hex. If not: don't since the loss of Canton and the forced rebasing of the Fleet/air units there results in disorganising those units and that costs oil, which is precious to the Japanese. You have to reconquer the hex and that means another US entry roll for the city. The factory isn't probably of interest of you, but if you're convoy lines are getting the Hainan resource to Canton and not further to Japan, you'll lose a Production Point. Not a very good thing to happen early in the game.
Also, I don't like the position of the Japanese Marine Division at all. It is all alone out there and can be put out of supply. I don't know if there's a Japanese unit left in Hainan, but if there isn't, the Chinese can recapture the minor port and make this division an immobile one. Personally I think you're a little to opportunistic at this part of the front.
Now, that very nice 8-3 north of there (three land units?) is the one who should move south, making life very difficult for Mr. Chiang, if he is able to get an attack on that very nice oil barrel with hopefully a low combat factor Chinese land unit underneath (if not, forget about attacking...). Even with an attack succesful here, you shouldn't be willing to lose Canton.
To answer the questions you raise, there's only an air unit under that oil, so no attack possible. Instead, I've shifted my forces so that I can threaten a direct charge on teh heartland, using Ichang as a link for the HQ in the region, while still threatening Chiang and his pals. To the far north, I have all of those troops from Manchuria giving the Communists a case of the willies, and I also still have 2 Marines, an ENG, an ART, a MIL, and my big bad HQ-I Yamamato sitting on TRS waiting to reinforce as soons as needed, and wherever they are needed.
No, there is nobody protecting Hainan, but if neither of the nearby INF make an attempt to retreat toward Kweilin, it is easy pickings for the MAR Division (given good weather, of course). You should probably know about me by now, that I really like to take risks. Sometimes they pay off, and sometimes they screw me. But I'm comfortable with the Marine and HQ backup being able to take Canton back if/when that becomes necessary. Remember, Canton only becomes a supply source for the Chinese at the beginning of the next turn, so if they take it, they'll have to hold it that long, because they'll surely lose other sources they are now using.
I could be wrong, probably am, but I'm a'gonna give this a shot.
I have groceries to pick up, but I'll run the battles when I'm done with that.
< Message edited by Red Prince -- 11/11/2011 7:30:23 PM >
Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH