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RE: Turn 14 Moves

 
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RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/18/2011 12:07:12 PM   
ComradeP

 

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Pelton, for starters the latest version is a lot more favourable to the Axis in 1941 than previous ones were.

And this:
quote:

I have bitched about this to no end. German national moral is 50 and the devs love it and even try to defend this joke of a sytem.
remains a lie no matter how often you repeat it.

I've asked you a number of times to actually prove the point that German national morale is 50, but you have failed to present even a single scrap of evidence.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Pelton)
Post #: 241
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/18/2011 3:44:18 PM   
Pelton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Pelton, for starters the latest version is a lot more favourable to the Axis in 1941 than previous ones were.

And this:
quote:

I have bitched about this to no end. German national moral is 50 and the devs love it and even try to defend this joke of a sytem.
remains a lie no matter how often you repeat it.

I've asked you a number of times to actually prove the point that German national morale is 50, but you have failed to present even a single scrap of evidence.


Ok remove you head from sand.

Russian morale goes up to nation morale. Just a plain fact,
German morale does not go up to national morale level. It can go below 50 but rises to 50. If its 69, 55,51, 67 and national morale level is 75 or 70 it will never rise to the national morale level. Thats the fact.

So German national moral is simply 50 by default.

Again the facts are the facts ignoring them does not make them go away.

German national morale is 50. Because in the words of the devs it gravitaes to the national moral level.

The only number the German morale gravitates to is 50.

Pelton

(in reply to ComradeP)
Post #: 242
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/18/2011 4:10:34 PM   
heliodorus04


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Pelton, for starters the latest version is a lot more favourable to the Axis in 1941 than previous ones were.

And this:
quote:

I have bitched about this to no end. German national moral is 50 and the devs love it and even try to defend this joke of a sytem.
remains a lie no matter how often you repeat it.

I've asked you a number of times to actually prove the point that German national morale is 50, but you have failed to present even a single scrap of evidence.


I'm not certain that calling it a 'lie' is accurate. German morale may not be 50, but what we can clearly see given the math algorithm for morale increases, the 1941 German army is bound to lose morale on balance during the campaign rather than garner it. The probability for morale increases becomes lower and lower for Germany the higher a unit's morale is above 75. The probability of it becoming lower remains basically constant no matter your morale.

By virtue of the principal of Regression to the Mean, Germany's army is always going down.

The game mechanics for refit, for morale increases when below national morale, all point to a trend where, also through Regression to the Mean, the Soviet Morale is almost always going up on the aggregate by virtue of Held results (almost certain to increase Soviet morale) and rest (much lower chance per turn of increase, but average pattern will be increasing morale).

I don't know how it is you don't recognize these patterns being hard-coded into the morale mechanics.

I don't know whether it's right or wrong: I just know that it's hopeless for Germany to expect his morale to go up over time, and whenever each year arrives, it instantly becomes worse for Germany.

(in reply to ComradeP)
Post #: 243
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/18/2011 4:11:45 PM   
heliodorus04


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Pelton, for starters the latest version is a lot more favourable to the Axis in 1941 than previous ones were.

And this:
quote:

I have bitched about this to no end. German national moral is 50 and the devs love it and even try to defend this joke of a sytem.
remains a lie no matter how often you repeat it.

I've asked you a number of times to actually prove the point that German national morale is 50, but you have failed to present even a single scrap of evidence.


I'm not certain that calling it a 'lie' is accurate. German morale may not be 50, but what we can clearly see given the math algorithm for morale increases, the 1941 German army is bound to lose morale on balance during the campaign rather than garner it. The probability for morale increases becomes lower and lower for Germany the higher a unit's morale is above 75. The probability of it becoming lower remains basically constant no matter your morale.

By virtue of the principal of Regression to the Mean, Germany's army is always going down.

The game mechanics for refit, for morale increases when below national morale, all point to a trend where, also through Regression to the Mean, the Soviet Morale is almost always going up on the aggregate by virtue of Held results (almost certain to increase Soviet morale) and rest (much lower chance per turn of increase, but average pattern will be increasing morale).

I don't know how it is you don't recognize these patterns being hard-coded into the morale mechanics.

I don't know whether it's right or wrong: I just know that it's hopeless for Germany to expect his morale to go up over time, and whenever each year arrives, it instantly becomes worse for Germany, and it's another place where the Soviet doesn't have to think about managing this aspect of his army because it will improve over time without management.



< Message edited by heliodorus04 -- 11/18/2011 4:13:13 PM >

(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 244
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/18/2011 6:32:48 PM   
Pelton

 

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I am not debating about if or of not national moral goes up or down because of combat.

The issue is when a unit is ten hexes from the front, it has a chance of a moral increase.

When a russian unit is 10+ from the front almost every turn there is a moral increase 1-3 pts.

When a german unit is 10+ from the front there is a 1.4% chance of a moral increase of 1 pt.

I tested this myself in my game vs Kamil and a few other things.

I withdrew 38 units from the front to Germany and sat them 4 full turns and only 2 gained back a moral pt. All of the units were from 50 to 65 moral. 2 were under 50 and both gained back moral each turn until they hit 50.

Russian moral gravitates to what ever the national moral level is by simply sitting. It can gain or lose moral based on combat.

German moral gravitates to 50. Because its pointless to sit a German unit 10+ hexes from front to gain back 1 pt of moral every 76 turns on average.

Therefor based 100% on the math German national moral is 50.

This is one of many things that are stacked against the axis side.

It is by design like this, but its avery poor design as was 1v1=2v1.

Pelton


< Message edited by Pelton -- 11/18/2011 6:36:27 PM >

(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 245
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/18/2011 7:38:36 PM   
ComradeP

 

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quote:

German morale does not go up to national morale level. It can go below 50 but rises to 50. If its 69, 55,51, 67 and national morale level is 75 or 70 it will never rise to the national morale level. Thats the fact.


No, that is not a fact, and for the record: you can't test it correctly in any case as German national morale is never higher than what can be gained through resting to begin with.

I already explained the reason for why it's easier for the Soviets to get to 50, but I'm not going to repeat it again as I was wasting my time trying to explain it to you before, so I'm not going to waste my time again.

quote:

So German national moral is simply 50 by default.


No.

quote:

I don't know how it is you don't recognize these patterns being hard-coded into the morale mechanics.


Take a look at what you wrote, you're missing something.

German morale starts higher than the national morale for the majority of your combat units. As such, as gaining morale to levels higher than national morale is difficult, morale isn't likely to rise by much. This goes for both sides. If you lose a battle you may or may not lose a point of morale. Recently, a change was included in a patch which made whether or not you lose morale depend on (presumably) a dice roll linked to whether you're above or below the national morale level. This applies to both sides, again.

I don't doubt the idea of regression towards the mean, nor have I ever said I doubted that for the latest versions as far as I know. What I'm saying is that the mean isn't 50, which is what Pelton is missing.

It is only logical that morale, over time, lowers or increases to the national morale level. It's essentially what the feature is for, like it or not.

However, what you wrote doesn't, in any way, support the theory of German national morale being 50.

Your idea that Soviet morale always goes up is also incorrect, because the mean is lowered in 1942 and there is only a small chance of morale going up if it's above the national morale level.

quote:

I don't know whether it's right or wrong: I just know that it's hopeless for Germany to expect his morale to go up over time, and whenever each year arrives, it instantly becomes worse for Germany.


The last part of this sentence is false. There is no direct relation between national morale and morale where if one of the two changes, the other changes too. There is only an indirect relation where unit morale will gravitate towards the mean.

-

Pelton, I'll try to tell you this one more time, even though you have simply ignored it every single time I tried to tell you before.

If you have a problem with something or think something is broken, create an argument backed up by either in-game evidence or a very detailed explanation. Now you're mostly making short posts centered on arguments that are not backed up, but which you keep repeating. That is, over time, costing you credibility.

I believe you're often trying to contribute your share towards making WitE a better product for all of us, but it would be a lot better for both you and the rest of us if you'd do that with an actual case backed up by arguments instead of creating posts that come down to something like "German national morale is 50" and you hitting the OK button.

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(in reply to Pelton)
Post #: 246
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/19/2011 11:29:58 AM   
heliodorus04


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ComradeP, you appear to be fixated on the single mathematical formula for increases in morale, and not fully considering the probabilities given the way the game plays.

By virtue of the automatic loss of morale for a retreat, and
the high probability of a Soviet morale increase for a defending Held result, and
the high probability of a Soviet morale increase for an attacking success

Germany will always be doing a downward morale shuffle (the probability of it going down is comparatively much greater than the probability of a German unit's morale ever going up).

Soviets will always be doing an upward morale shuffle.

And on a separate note: If you cannot test your claims, how am I to believe their veracity, no disrespect intended. You said you can't test this national morale issue.

I guess I'm not fixated on national morale so much as I am the fact that the die roll formula has the effect of being extra punitive on the German side over the course of the war. Whenever national morale goes down, if a German unit's morale is above NM, it's chance of morale increases has immediately been reduced.


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Post #: 247
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/19/2011 11:32:35 AM   
janh

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
Germany will always be doing a downward morale shuffle (the probability of it going down is comparatively much greater than the probability of a German unit's morale ever going up).

Soviets will always be doing an upward morale shuffle.


As probabilities are treated on equal footing on both sides, the moral should converge on NM. And that's probably exactly what this whole functionality is to do? Since "moral" is in fact a convolution of "experience/training and will to fight", the upward trend for the Soviets (though slow) probably represents increasing training and skill over the years, as well as recovering will to beat the Germans after the slashing defeats of 41 and 42. The Germans, on the other hand, cut back on training new recruits in the course of the war, and the experienced cadres thinned out badly until the end. Moreover, with the notion that the offensive war failed, and defeats on other fronts accumulating, their will to fight for the Führer and his fantastic ideas also decreased after 41.
So why exactly should this not be represented in game?



< Message edited by janh -- 11/19/2011 11:38:39 AM >

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Post #: 248
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/19/2011 12:10:04 PM   
ComradeP

 

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quote:

By virtue of the automatic loss of morale for a retreat


False. It would help if you actually read what I post.

quote:

the high probability of a Soviet morale increase for a defending Held result


Only if below their national morale.

quote:

the high probability of a Soviet morale increase for an attacking success


Again, only if below their national morale.

quote:

Germany will always be doing a downward morale shuffle (the probability of it going down is comparatively much greater than the probability of a German unit's morale ever going up).


It's not an automatic process, it depends on how you play. Infantry morale is much more likely to decline than mobile unit morale due to the infantry generally being at the frontline and the mobile units being behind it somewhere.

quote:

Soviets will always be doing an upward morale shuffle.


Not necessarily and not at the rate you and Pelton are suggesting.

quote:

And on a separate note: If you cannot test your claims, how am I to believe their veracity, no disrespect intended. You said you can't test this national morale issue.


You and Pelton are talking about German and Soviet national morale, not just the German national morale. You can't really test the German national morale because most units start above it. You can test Soviet national morale because many units either start below it, are below it over time and because Soviet national morale goes down in 1941-1942 before it goes up again in 1943-1944.

quote:

I guess I'm not fixated on national morale so much as I am the fact that the die roll formula has the effect of being extra punitive on the German side over the course of the war.


It isn't extra punitive.

You're still missing the, rather simple, point that German national morale is lower than the morale of most of their units, so the die roll isn't "extra punitive" in a hardcoded manner. It's less likely to succeed because German units generally start with a morale higher than their national morale.

I don't know why that simple fact is extremely difficult to grasp for both you and Pelton.

< Message edited by ComradeP -- 11/19/2011 12:11:50 PM >


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Post #: 249
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/19/2011 6:18:34 PM   
heliodorus04


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Okay, you're starting to hear the point I'm trying to get at. I'm reading what you're saying. Your pedantic posturing isn't helping me understand you and is making you look capriciously mean.

It is 'extra punitive' that Germany's national morale is artificially set so low (it is extra punitive that the Soviet 1941 morale is also thrown into a trash can arbitrarily in 1942).

Let's take the mechanic of morale change out of it for a second, because while you seem to think I don't understand it, I think we agree on how it works.

The simple difference between the national morale and the average infantry division (or non-elite division) morale for Germany is an artifice that serves to set Germany immediately on a downward morale spiral starting on turn 1.

Why is the difference between the average infantry morale and national morale so great IF NOT to artificially make the German weaker regardless of his level of competence, efficiency, and success in play?

Why does the morale change in January of each year? Why does it change in January of 42 when the blizzard conditions are already working fine on bringing down German morale?

Germany already has TOE changes that make it weaker, replacement schedules that make it weaker, production multipliers that make it weaker, historic withdrawl schedules that make it weaker - all regardless of any outcome other than the passage of time on a calendar. It's another hard-coded handicapping measure that works to bring DOWN the German (because national morale is almost always going to be lower than average morale per unit) and brings UP the Soviet (because national morale will more often be above unit morale, and because the resting mechanic can often benefit Soviet units while, while German units can expect to be above morale of 50 unless whole swaths of the front are collapsing each turn.

It's another example of the Soviet having failsafes and the German having the opposite of a failsafe, whatever that's called...


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RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/19/2011 6:35:05 PM   
heliodorus04


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Stated another way:
Why is the die roll set at a starting point of 75 in determining the final probability? Why not 100? Or even 85, the high average of the better German infantry?

Because they want to ensure regression to the mean forces down German morale.

The Germans are programmed to suck regardless of what either player does well or poorly.


(in reply to heliodorus04)
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RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/19/2011 10:30:44 PM   
M60A3TTS

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

quote:

Germany already has TOE changes that make it weaker

I am ready to be the first one to sign an online petition to allow players to defer TO&E changes. I would love to build some Soviet tank divisions with over 200 T-34s authorized in that formation.

quote:

production multipliers that make it weaker

The manual says German muntiplier is 100 in '41 and 380 in '44, unless that changed since. The Soviets went from 100->200 after 1941 under v1.0.4, that's since been reduced to 100-> 130 in 1.0.5

quote:

historic withdrawl schedules that make it weaker - all regardless of any outcome other than the passage of time on a calendar.


Um, yeah. The Allies are still invading Normandy on June 6, 1944 and the Axis forces there need help. Your point is?

quote:

It's another hard-coded handicapping measure that works to bring DOWN the German (because national morale is almost always going to be lower than average morale per unit) and brings UP the Soviet (because national morale will more often be above unit morale, and because the resting mechanic can often benefit Soviet units while, while German units can expect to be above morale of 50 unless whole swaths of the front are collapsing each turn.

The German leadership promised a quick war in the east, and they didn't deliver on that promise. As time went on, German morale in general was reduced as there was no successful end in sight and Allied forces strengthened and closed in on the Fatherland, along with the bombing campaign over the Reich, failed result with U-Boats, etc. Contrary to what some Axis players might hope for, I don't think it's a matter that as the Axis you send your panzertruppen on vacation in Garmish for the winter and expect them to come back in time for the Spring offensive with the same belief in victory and morale level that they had on June 22, 1941. They knew the brutal conditions they were living under daily on the Eastern Front and one might argue that their increased morale came from a grim determination to fight regardless of the odds, expecting no quarter for them or their people should their enemy make their way into the Reich itself. You want to increase morale? Win battles. It's not that hard to do in many cases.

quote:

It's another example of the Soviet having failsafes and the German having the opposite of a failsafe, whatever that's called...


The Soviet side has it's blemishes as well. There's a certain degree of fantasy involved that the Russians will surrender Moscow to a minimal attack if surrounded/out of supply. But the game provides for it, and the Soviet player has to live with it.

(in reply to heliodorus04)
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RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/19/2011 11:23:15 PM   
heliodorus04


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M60, that's all well and good as a rationalization, but "Morale" in game terms is not what Morale means to a commanding officer (or so I've been told).  WitE "Morale" is a measure of combat effectiveness, so I can't have a discussion around your points.  Your points are irrelevant to game mechanics.

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Post #: 253
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 2:22:49 AM   
Pelton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
Germany will always be doing a downward morale shuffle (the probability of it going down is comparatively much greater than the probability of a German unit's morale ever going up).

Soviets will always be doing an upward morale shuffle.


As probabilities are treated on equal footing on both sides, the moral should converge on NM. And that's probably exactly what this whole functionality is to do? Since "moral" is in fact a convolution of "experience/training and will to fight", the upward trend for the Soviets (though slow) probably represents increasing training and skill over the years, as well as recovering will to beat the Germans after the slashing defeats of 41 and 42. The Germans, on the other hand, cut back on training new recruits in the course of the war, and the experienced cadres thinned out badly until the end. Moreover, with the notion that the offensive war failed, and defeats on other fronts accumulating, their will to fight for the Führer and his fantastic ideas also decreased after 41.
So why exactly should this not be represented in game?





Great point man. We are replaying history.

If as the German you are doing better then history you are punished still because of the pts heliodorus04
makes.

Your good or bad game play is not rewarded or punished.

The very same goes for the Russian player, if your playing like crap your still rewarded with higher national moral?

So better then historical game play by the German is punished with hard coded lowering of national moral.

Worse then historical game play by the Russian is rewarded with higher national moral.

quote:

Moreover, with the notion that the offensive war failed, and defeats on other fronts accumulating, their will to fight for the Führer and his fantastic ideas also decreased after 41.
So why exactly should this not be represented in game?


Its always a very good idea to read what you write from not only your side but the other side. An open mind looks at the issue from both sides and not just 1 side.

So what if the notion that the offensive war is working, Leningrad/Moscow/Tula/Kursk/Kharkov/Stalino/Rostov were taken, their will to fight for the Fuhrer and his good ideas should also increase after 41.

So why exactly should this not be represented in Game?



Thank you for making heliodorus04 and my point

By design German national moral gravates to 50 no matter how good the game play of the German player is.
By design Russian national moral gravitaes to the national moral level that increased every year no matter how crappy the Russian game play is.

Only a closed minded person can see this as far and logical.

Citys need to have some effect on national moral, therefor giving poeple something to fight for and making for much more interesting games.

Rewarding poeple for crappy game play and punishing poeple for good game play is just a plain poor design.

Pelton



< Message edited by Pelton -- 11/20/2011 2:35:30 AM >

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RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 9:17:13 AM   
Strv103C


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I'm afraid that I don't understand the national morale thing. I'm playing soviet and have progressed to may 42 and when i refit units (10+ hexes away) the regular units tend to reach morale, 52 given enough time, but shouldnt this number be 42 (national morale)? Now if i get 10 extra morale points then the german player should get to morale 85 (national morale +10) when refitting, no?

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RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 10:55:25 AM   
wosung

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

M60, that's all well and good as a rationalization, but "Morale" in game terms is not what Morale means to a commanding officer (or so I've been told).  WitE "Morale" is a measure of combat effectiveness, so I can't have a discussion around your points.  Your points are irrelevant to game mechanics.



Wrong again.

German troop quality in WITE on average should sink during the war, because that's what it did IRL. And it did so from 1942 onwards. For German personnell management Barbarossa was everything but the kitchen sink. Beside of those yearly age cohorts of 17 to 18 year old fresh recruits (AFIR several 10.000), all other reinforcements were of continuously sinking physical quality. And the former had less and less training. Reports from Ersatzheer and Offiziersausbildung tell volumes. Thus, regardless of how good you play German troop quality in WitE on average should sink. Because even victories just don't cure stomach illness.

I'll spare you citations and references, because, well, you just ... "hate historians".





< Message edited by wosung -- 11/20/2011 10:59:34 AM >

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RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 11:57:13 AM   
janh

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Great point man. We are replaying history.

If as the German you are doing better then history you are punished still because of the pts heliodorus04
makes.

Your good or bad game play is not rewarded or punished.

The very same goes for the Russian player, if your playing like crap your still rewarded with higher national moral?

So better then historical game play by the German is punished with hard coded lowering of national moral.

Worse then historical game play by the Russian is rewarded with higher national moral.

quote:

Moreover, with the notion that the offensive war failed, and defeats on other fronts accumulating, their will to fight for the Führer and his fantastic ideas also decreased after 41.
So why exactly should this not be represented in game?


Its always a very good idea to read what you write from not only your side but the other side. An open mind looks at the issue from both sides and not just 1 side.

So what if the notion that the offensive war is working, Leningrad/Moscow/Tula/Kursk/Kharkov/Stalino/Rostov were taken, their will to fight for the Fuhrer and his good ideas should also increase after 41.

So why exactly should this not be represented in Game?


I am surprised, for once I have to agree with you, at least partly. There was a discussion about this on the forum a while ago, where people including me suggested that it would be neat if national moral would bounce up and down with major victories and cities captured. Unfortunately they have convoluted true moral (as I posted above) with combat experience/training, which confuses things. Hopefully they will undo that in the next titles.

If it were purely will to fight, the NM should follow the Axis/Allied successes of the war. That would automatically lower Soviet NM with the big pockets of 41 and the city losses, and would also make a nice victory indicator (if NM fell below a threshold). In turn, Axis expected a quick offensive victory, so as soon as the Barbarossa offensive stalls, and especially once the last Axis campaign in 42 fails, the Axis should take moral blows as necessary victories numbers erode and own losses rise for insignificant returns. Further, as Allies score victories on other fronts, German NM should drop, while with any step the Soviet gets closer to Berlin, their should rise.

Even though combat experience is tied in, that would still largely be a good concept. German training time for new recruits was reduced, and experienced cadres of officers and, importantly, NCO's got depleted by the fighting into 42. So the quality of the German soldier declined, while simultaneously the Soviets got better training, doctrine etc. That is the same trend. So again, I agree with the way this is designed in game, even though I prefer playing Axis and this won't work to my advantage. It simply is sound.

In an ideal world, excessively poor or good play by either side would be rewarded. There should be a causal connection between true moral and successes/defeats, and training/EXP and troops losses. However, until we get to "War in Europe", the home front, North Africa, Italy and France are still out of our reach, and, thus, the Axis has to be assumed to lose the war there (~>withdrawals always stick to historical timelines). Plus, Axis unit quality and combat value will necessarily erode with rising losses. So for the Axis I see only one valid trend: downwards, even he can beat the Russians, since Axis still will loose the war in this game. So even if there was some feedback loop here from captured cities, destroyed units, and own losses to NM, the trend would necessarily still have to be tuned such that German NM goes down. In contrast, for the Soviets there could be potential to go further up, or down.

In a "War in Europe", where Germany might really do better than history, a true causal coupling of successes and defeats to NM and losses to experience would make a lot more sense, though.

< Message edited by janh -- 11/20/2011 11:58:53 AM >

(in reply to Pelton)
Post #: 257
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 1:09:18 PM   
Pelton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wosung

quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

M60, that's all well and good as a rationalization, but "Morale" in game terms is not what Morale means to a commanding officer (or so I've been told).  WitE "Morale" is a measure of combat effectiveness, so I can't have a discussion around your points.  Your points are irrelevant to game mechanics.



Wrong again.

German troop quality in WITE on average should sink during the war, because that's what it did IRL. And it did so from 1942 onwards. For German personnell management Barbarossa was everything but the kitchen sink. Beside of those yearly age cohorts of 17 to 18 year old fresh recruits (AFIR several 10.000), all other reinforcements were of continuously sinking physical quality. And the former had less and less training. Reports from Ersatzheer and Offiziersausbildung tell volumes. Thus, regardless of how good you play German troop quality in WitE on average should sink. Because even victories just don't cure stomach illness.

I'll spare you citations and references, because, well, you just ... "hate historians".






Yes as you know troop quality started tanking during 44, women an young poeple filling out units, so using your input Russian morale should start going down in late 44 - 45.

Again you have made my pt thank you very very much.

As the russian or German player we are tring to change history and not be stuck 100% following it.

I have had many games were I have far far llower then historical losses so the kiddys never are needed in the front, therefor the moral and health of front line units should not auto degrade just because of history. Thats the hole pt of playing the game in the first plase is seeing if we can change history.

Again instead of being close minded about the game, have and open mind and look at both sides of the issue.

Thanks for supporting my side of the issue with your responce.

Again the German player is punished for better then historical game play and the russian player is rewarded for worse then historical game play.

Pelton

< Message edited by Pelton -- 11/20/2011 1:11:56 PM >

(in reply to wosung)
Post #: 258
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 1:11:25 PM   
heliodorus04


Posts: 1402
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From: Denver Colorado
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Wosung, you're on my blocked list, so whatever you said sounds like Charlie Brown's teacher. Blah blah blah... Please leave your oleaginous BS out of my personal AAR.

There are a great many design decisions in WitE that were lazy. Weather and supply are the two easiest examples. But the degradation of German combat effectiveness is one of them.

Hell, half the game's problems could be assuaged, if not fixed outright, by halving the time scale to 3.5 days per turn. That'll probably be War in the East 2, though, right?

(in reply to janh)
Post #: 259
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 1:43:04 PM   
heliodorus04


Posts: 1402
Joined: 11/1/2008
From: Denver Colorado
Status: offline
In another example of fine air war mechanics, I tried to send a fuel supply run to 40.Panzer, and this is the result: Note that ALL of the bombers were shot down. I've never seen this happen before.

Note also that it says the air mission was for supply, when it was for fuel.

It's a lovely game, working as intended...





How did this happen (zero escorts was something I could do nothing about, because I'm apparently not smart enough to understand why fighters sometimes fly and sometimes don't). If I could transfer aircraft at any time, rather than only at the start of a mission, I could put fighters on bases when this kind of forced-no-escort BS happens, but that's not the way the game was designed. It was designed lazily.

Makes me glad that all those Ju-52s got shipped over to Romania and Hungary (who last turn formed Ju-52 groups)...

How much do you think that will affect the next two turns?


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by heliodorus04 -- 11/20/2011 2:15:01 PM >

(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 260
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 3:47:58 PM   
wosung

 

Posts: 612
Joined: 7/18/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

Wosung, you're on my blocked list, so whatever you said sounds like Charlie Brown's teacher. Blah blah blah... Please leave your oleaginous BS out of my personal AAR.



This is what I thought. I present arguments, you're bitching around. Thank you for not being man enough to discuss things in civilized way.

Oh and what about the dramatic boycott you threatend everybody with? And just nobody cared.

quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
Quit starting games as the German side. Boycott.
I'm not taking it anymore. And I am speaking up.





(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 261
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 4:44:44 PM   
Baelfiin

 

Posts: 1250
Joined: 6/7/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

In another example of fine air war mechanics, I tried to send a fuel supply run to 40.Panzer, and this is the result: Note that ALL of the bombers were shot down. I've never seen this happen before.

Note also that it says the air mission was for supply, when it was for fuel.

It's a lovely game, working as intended...



How did this happen (zero escorts was something I could do nothing about, because I'm apparently not smart enough to understand why fighters sometimes fly and sometimes don't). If I could transfer aircraft at any time, rather than only at the start of a mission, I could put fighters on bases when this kind of forced-no-escort BS happens, but that's not the way the game was designed. It was designed lazily.

Makes me glad that all those Ju-52s got shipped over to Romania and Hungary (who last turn formed Ju-52 groups)...

How much do you think that will affect the next two turns?



Helio did you move the airbase that those ju-52's flew from prior to doing the air supply? I saw that same thing happen except I lost 129 transports. I chalked it up to the transitional nature of the state of the air game.
Also: did yoou shift-right-click to fly the mission or just right click it? In my case I just right clicked and autoflew, 129 transports headed out, nothing came back 8)



_____________________________

"We are going to attack all night, and attack tomorrow morning..... If we are not victorious, let no one come back alive!" -- Patton
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(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 262
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 4:50:41 PM   
heliodorus04


Posts: 1402
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From: Denver Colorado
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I did not move the airbase.
Roel informs me there was a transport bug in 1.05.39.

Wosung: I did read you. Spare me the insults about manliness.  I've been in a war, buried a wife at 37 (cancer) and did relief work in Biloxi Mississippi after hurricane Katrina for 12 days. I'm not interested in your flavor of self-sanctimony and scorn, and I'm certain of my masculinity. War in the East won't be affecting it.  It's only a game.

(in reply to Baelfiin)
Post #: 263
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 6:46:57 PM   
ComradeP

 

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That air mission looks like a bug, it's as if the aircraft were damaged and the air base they were on was overrun. Pavel has stated that air losses are often incorrectly reported, but your result seems to be well beyond any small margin of reporting error.

I would suggest filing a bug report.

quote:

Okay, you're starting to hear the point I'm trying to get at. I'm reading what you're saying. Your pedantic posturing isn't helping me understand you and is making you look capriciously mean.


I'm trying to explain a point to you, and I'm losing my patience because you chose to interpret that point in your own way, instead of the way it actually works in the game. As this is the same thing that annoys me about Pelton from time to time, I don't have a lot of patience left to spare. If you think that makes me "pedantic" or "capriciously mean" then I can only say that you're entitled that your own opinion and that behaviour is generally related to the environment you're in and is as such often indirectly created by circumstances you face.

A few points:

-At no point in the game is German national morale 50.

-Part 1: Newly mobilized units primarily filled with conscripts and not with (men who were before the war) professional soldiers and/or reservists generally perform worse in battle than those filled with professional soldiers and/or reservists. Part 2: For both sides, the regular replacements are basically conscripts. Part 3: Based on point 1 and 2, the quality of units declines over time as the amount of professional soldiers and/or reservists declines and the overall amount of combat experience in/of a unit declines. Part 4: The German units that start the game with high morale have generally either been mobilized in one of the first mobilization waves and/or have combat experience and are thus on average more capable combat troops than those mobilized after the start of Barbarossa. Part 5: Considering point 4, it is as such logical that German replacement quality and overall unit quality declines if units are regularly defeated in battle and suffer high losses in the process.

-This is something of an assumption, but statistically speaking it's likely. Soviet national morale is likely to be lower than average unit morale in the final months of 1941, for the entirety of 1942 and the first half of 1943. It is likely to be higher than the average unit morale in the summer months of 1941 and from summer 1943 to 1945. I would like to add that I think 70-80 morale Guards units give the Soviets too much of an advantage and I'm thus not particularly happy with the national morale of 60 in 1944-1945 combined with the recently added national morale bonuses for certain unit types combined with the Guards bonus. However, the key point here is that there are extended periods in the game where Soviet national morale is likely to be lower than average unit morale.

_____________________________

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Panzer Corps Beta tester
Unity of Command scenario designer

(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 264
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 8:03:46 PM   
JAMiAM

 

Posts: 6146
Joined: 2/8/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Baelfiin


quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

In another example of fine air war mechanics, I tried to send a fuel supply run to 40.Panzer, and this is the result: Note that ALL of the bombers were shot down. I've never seen this happen before.

Note also that it says the air mission was for supply, when it was for fuel.

It's a lovely game, working as intended...



How did this happen (zero escorts was something I could do nothing about, because I'm apparently not smart enough to understand why fighters sometimes fly and sometimes don't). If I could transfer aircraft at any time, rather than only at the start of a mission, I could put fighters on bases when this kind of forced-no-escort BS happens, but that's not the way the game was designed. It was designed lazily.

Makes me glad that all those Ju-52s got shipped over to Romania and Hungary (who last turn formed Ju-52 groups)...

How much do you think that will affect the next two turns?



Helio did you move the airbase that those ju-52's flew from prior to doing the air supply? I saw that same thing happen except I lost 129 transports. I chalked it up to the transitional nature of the state of the air game.
Also: did yoou shift-right-click to fly the mission or just right click it? In my case I just right clicked and autoflew, 129 transports headed out, nothing came back 8)



You really need to micromanage (shift-right click) your Air Transport missions if you want to keep your transports alive. If you don't you get results like this where the transports from some Luftflotte 30 hexes away fly out supplies without escorts due to the no-mix rule between Luftflotte/Air Armies. If you shift-right click, then you'll know whether the mission will be escorted or not.

The no-mix rule can even bite you on the ass, if your forces are far away from fighters that are under the same AG command umbrella, as you may end up with unescorted bombers flying Ground Support, which are then shot down in droves.

(in reply to Baelfiin)
Post #: 265
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 8:45:07 PM   
heliodorus04


Posts: 1402
Joined: 11/1/2008
From: Denver Colorado
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

That air mission looks like a bug, it's as if the aircraft were damaged and the air base they were on was overrun. Pavel has stated that air losses are often incorrectly reported, but your result seems to be well beyond any small margin of reporting error.

I would suggest filing a bug report.

quote:

Okay, you're starting to hear the point I'm trying to get at. I'm reading what you're saying. Your pedantic posturing isn't helping me understand you and is making you look capriciously mean.


I'm trying to explain a point to you, and I'm losing my patience because you chose to interpret that point in your own way, instead of the way it actually works in the game. As this is the same thing that annoys me about Pelton from time to time, I don't have a lot of patience left to spare. If you think that makes me "pedantic" or "capriciously mean" then I can only say that you're entitled that your own opinion and that behaviour is generally related to the environment you're in and is as such often indirectly created by circumstances you face.

A few points:

-At no point in the game is German national morale 50.

-Part 1: Newly mobilized units primarily filled with conscripts and not with (men who were before the war) professional soldiers and/or reservists generally perform worse in battle than those filled with professional soldiers and/or reservists. Part 2: For both sides, the regular replacements are basically conscripts. Part 3: Based on point 1 and 2, the quality of units declines over time as the amount of professional soldiers and/or reservists declines and the overall amount of combat experience in/of a unit declines. Part 4: The German units that start the game with high morale have generally either been mobilized in one of the first mobilization waves and/or have combat experience and are thus on average more capable combat troops than those mobilized after the start of Barbarossa. Part 5: Considering point 4, it is as such logical that German replacement quality and overall unit quality declines if units are regularly defeated in battle and suffer high losses in the process.

-This is something of an assumption, but statistically speaking it's likely. Soviet national morale is likely to be lower than average unit morale in the final months of 1941, for the entirety of 1942 and the first half of 1943. It is likely to be higher than the average unit morale in the summer months of 1941 and from summer 1943 to 1945. I would like to add that I think 70-80 morale Guards units give the Soviets too much of an advantage and I'm thus not particularly happy with the national morale of 60 in 1944-1945 combined with the recently added national morale bonuses for certain unit types combined with the Guards bonus. However, the key point here is that there are extended periods in the game where Soviet national morale is likely to be lower than average unit morale.


We're in a lot of agreement in a lot of places. I also over-use 'pedantic' and 'capricious' too much.

This point is philosophical:
What's the difference between an 86 average morale unit right after it loses an attack on turn X and the same unit at the start of Turn X+1?
It's had a replacements phase through which to draw new conscripts.

Now, maybe I'm wrong in this part of my understanding:
But the loss on the attack is likely to see a reduction in the morale to 85 in 1941, and in any given year thereafter, it's going to be that much higher by virtue of the NM level being set lower.
Is that not accurate?

Independently, on the next turn, replacements are added. If my understanding is correct with replacements, they always come into a unit at a much lower experience level and somewhat lower morale level (?) than what would be considered the "average June 1941" levels for Germany. And their addition as elements to any given entry in the unit will correspondingly lower the levels of the unit (for experience at least).

That, to me, seems like a couple of things:
It seems like a failure of the 'experience' data being tracked (and it's being tracked per element!) to be meaningful to the combat engine. I presume that we really can't know if experience data is significant because it's inside the black box. I suspect this is an origination point of a lot of problems with WitE (and this is reinforced in learning that War in the West is already developing an improved combat engine based on WitE lessons learned).

It also seems like double-counting (however, if the above is true, then the double-counting may not be meaningful if experience isn't meaningful to the combat model in the first place).

It also seems like an artifice to make the German experience less fun, in this sense:
If one can delay the degradation of German unit morale, one can preserve the most entertaining part of playing Germany in the period after Soviets seize the initiative, which is counter-attacking. The morale of a unit has a tremendous bearing on how far it can move in the attack, and 86 is the threshold where a German unit is really a bada$$ on the offense, especially infantry.

(Remind me to tie this point back in to my banshee screaming about the cost of moving German divisions within armies and army groups, because the two are correlated to a gameplay option that Germany is unfairly, and in this case I'd argue unhistorically, missing for it in WitE).

The balance point German players should be rewarded for balancing correctly is 86 morale infantry, and national morale as a whole in the 80 to 85 range. If you can preserve 86 morale infantry through late summer of 42, you could actually be having very interesting 1943s. (It is the Soviet advantage in men and material that should beat Germany over time, not the artifice of national morale.)

But currently given the way the mechanics work and their formulas, the mechanic ensures not only that Germany can't practically achieve a meaningful body of 86-morale infantry through later 42, but that the Soviet doesn't have to focus any strategic decision making or assets in ensuring the German can't do this: The game mechanic handles it for him.

How many divisions could be argued to have "86-morale" type capabilities in the east through the late summer of 1942, particularly in the Fall-Blau area of operations? Hell, through to November 19, 1942...? this is where my casual understanding of history fails my ability to argue, but I would argue that it's more than can possibly be expected to under typical game circumstances. Regression to the mean will force 86 morale infantry down well before then.

The difference between German starting infantry morale and the starting national morale level creates the regression-to-the-mean issue that I keep point at saying that this is a primary problem in rewarding good German gameplay.

My success rate is about 80% in this game, but even with a 4:1 ratio of wins, German morale is going down, because there is a high probability of a lost point when attacks result in Held, and a much lower chance than 1:4 that a successful attack will result in a gain. This is highly problematic for gameplay, as I've mentioned throughout. This is to say nothing of the times in 41 when 1:1 ->2:1 shifts (and I'm not saying that mechanic should be re-examined), that result in retreats, that also result in an automatic loss of 1 morale point, possibly more.

Winter does what it does, and I won't complain about it, but Germany will also be required to lose morale for every Retreat it suffers, so that's double-the-problem. Is that double-counting again? I think so, and it wouldn't be as big a factor to me were it not for the fact that the die roll for a morale increase starts at 75 or if German National Morale were 80 or 85. I think the damn die roll should start at 100... That's the morale scale, and differences in national morale vs. unit morale are already factored into the rest of the formula). You could also set the movement penalty threshold for entering an enemy territory hex to 80 rather than 86, which would alleviate some of this problem.

Now, for all those units that start 1941 at 76 morale or above, the morale increase formula die roll start-point of 75 sets out from the start to punish them (it begs the question: how did they get to 85 morale in the first place?). If it was set to 80, it would be an improvement. If it could was 85 or 90 (the starting die roll number, I mean) then the chances for increased morale on attack would be meaningful for Germany. The same probability implications apply either instead of, or preferably in addition with German national morale. A system where the die roll formula start-point was higher, and national morale could be affected in some way would be a much more interesting game, and strategically complex. I don't think most of the Soviet-favorite players want a complex game...

Closing out the point:
It's one thing to be able to preserve some of your excellent infantry in the winter of 41 by pulling it back for rest and refit. I know some Soviet players who belabor this point as a-historic, but so is Soviet strategic defensive doctrine, and they can suq it...

When you take into account the capricious game mechanic
that ensures regression to the mean will take easily half your 86-morale infantry down to below the threshold, you could at least do what Germany often did historically: pull the elite units into a single body of command and use it as an offensive weapon when it could do significant good. But for the fact that it is the Soviet army that gets the freedom of command reassignment in this game.

So even when a player can know the importance and hindsight advantage of having 86-morale infantry under one command, the game mechanic punishes Germany and forces on them a strategic consequence for trying to overcome a bullshit game artifice.

So that's double-punishment again...

(in reply to ComradeP)
Post #: 266
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/20/2011 9:56:55 PM   
ComradeP

 

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quote:

I also over-use 'pedantic' and 'capricious' too much.


So I'm still mean?

quote:

It seems like a failure of the 'experience' data being tracked (and it's being tracked per element!) to be meaningful to the combat engine. I presume that we really can't know if experience data is significant because it's inside the black box. I suspect this is an origination point of a lot of problems with WitE (and this is reinforced in learning that War in the West is already developing an improved combat engine based on WitE lessons learned).


I don't understand your point here and in the previous sentences.

You first describe a situation where a unit loses morale, and then you switch to experience, even though there's no direct relation between the two the way you seem to think there is. There is a relation, but it's mostly an "over time" relation and not immediate. The best example remains the experience levels of German units after the first winter who have not suffered serious losses. Their experience is generally still around 80, even though their morale is around 70. As soon as replacements arrive, experience levels drop. Morale is not reduced in any way through the arrival of replacements.

I don't see what would be "double counting" here, as that would also imply there are two cumulative penalties, at least not for either morale or experience, even though both experience and morale go down in the situation you describe.

In your example, the unit's morale would be reduced to 85 which would also mean the maximum experience of all elements would be 85 if it's below or that level, but it doesn't mean that's the maximum for all elements. Elements with an experience level of 86 would not automatically go down to 85. That will only happen as soon as replacements arrive and losses are suffered.

Compared to the oddities of morale, I think experience works very well.

One thing you seem to forget, or choose to ignore, is that there are not all that many German infantry divisions with a morale of 86 or higher at the start of the game. There are only a few, in fact. However, even though the divisions that do morale of 90 (or 85) have generally experienced the high amount of success/low losses pre-1941 campaigns and are composed of battle hardened troops in many cases, you're asking for the other divisions in the Wehrmacht to be able to achieve that same level even though replacement quality is already lower than in 1939, success might still be significant, but losses are by default much higher than before. There's no historical foundation for such a wish, it's ahistorical. I would call 80 morale/experience Guards units pretty ahistorical too, but that's not the point currently as we're talking about the Germans.

There are some who claim 1943 was the high point of German power on the Eastern Front. When I open the 1943-1945 campaign, I can't say I'm particularly impressed by the shape of the Wehrmacht. From 1941 onwards, it's a downhill ride for most of your formations. That is historical, anything else would be ahistorical and even though the game is essentially ahistorical, the serious problems with the German replacement situation and the decreasing training/quality of replacements as the war dragged on are things that just can't be overlooked, ignored or factored out of the game.

You also seem too focussed on the morale of 86. It matters more for mobile units than for infantry. The 2 or 3 MP's it saves you might seem like a big deal and in some situations it will be a big deal, but overall it doesn't slow down your advance the same way that lower mobile unit morale slows it.

WitE has plenty of problems, and I'm still hopeful that over time the majority of them or perhaps even all of them will be fixed (but as I prefer to be realistic, I think that is unlikely as it's a monster wargame). The rate of German morale decline could be a problem, and something could even be said for a decrease or removal of the blizzard morale penalties or a higher initial 1942 national morale (personally, I'd be more in favour of a national morale system based on historical developments on other fronts as in this case the German national morale system is rather arbitrary), but that morale declines is by itself not a problem in my opinion. As the overall quality of the Wehrmacht declines, so does the morale.

As to the idea of tying national morale to objectives: it could work, but keep something like this in mind:

If you would be a German soldier, and you would know that Moscow was captured in 1941 and numerous other large cities were also captured in 1941 and 1942, but it's now 1943, the Soviets are still fighting and the casualties are around 3 million with no end to the war in sight. Why should you be particularly happy that some Soviet cities have fallen, which didn't put a dent in Soviet resistance as you experience it, if there is no end to the war in sight, particularly if you keep getting letters from your wife detailing how British/American bombs keep falling on the Fatherland?

If you would be a Soviet soldier, and you would know that numerous cities including Moscow have fallen and that the fascists are doing terrible things to the Soviet population, would you be more inclined to become more fanatical and fight on to regain for the Motherland what was lost or would you be inclined to surrender?

< Message edited by ComradeP -- 11/20/2011 10:00:00 PM >


_____________________________

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WitE Alpha tester
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(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 267
RE: Turn 14 Moves - 11/21/2011 1:11:08 AM   
M60A3TTS

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

How many divisions could be argued to have "86-morale" type capabilities in the east through the late summer of 1942, particularly in the Fall-Blau area of operations? Hell, through to November 19, 1942...? this is where my casual understanding of history fails my ability to argue, but I would argue that it's more than can possibly be expected to under typical game circumstances.


Not as many as some might believe. As to Blau, there are a couple things of importance to keep in mind.

After the Winter '41-42 battles, both Soviet and German sides were exhausted and in need of replacements for their units. As German replacements became available, they were sent for the most part to the south where the summer offensive was planned. Further, additional German troops in the Moscow area went into static mode in game-speak in order to further reinforce the southern group. All these troops had to be assimilated into new or existing units which prepared for the summer offensive. This made them inherently less effective as those units which had initiated Barbarossa and had been together in previous Wehrmacht conflicts. The German 2nd Army in particular struggled in some actions during Blau by nature of the troops that they had been reinforced with.

Next, the second battle of Kharkov in May '42, which was done at Stalin's insistence, was a colossal Soviet failure as Timoshenko's armies were surrounded and destroyed. Those largely green Soviet troops were simply not in a position to dislodge the Germans, and once they were gone, with them disappeared the main opposition to the German advance in the following month. Further, Stalin still believed the Germans would attack Moscow by way of Voronezh, so the Soviets were slow in committing additional forces to oppose those Axis troops advancing across the steppes.

So to a considerable extent, the initial Axis success of Blau could be laid directly on Stalin's feet. It wasn't as if Army Group B was some elite, highly trained fighting force which swept everything before it. The fact that they had to go to their allies for troops to reinforce the Hungarian, Italian and Rumanian armies for the operation reinforces the extent to which the entire operation was something of a gamble.

(in reply to heliodorus04)
Post #: 268
RE: Turn 15 Axis Moves - 11/21/2011 1:38:21 PM   
heliodorus04


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From: Denver Colorado
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Up in Leningrad, all hexes but the namesake are overcome.





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Post #: 269
RE: Turn 15 Axis Moves - 11/21/2011 1:38:46 PM   
heliodorus04


Posts: 1402
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From: Denver Colorado
Status: offline
The Finns have fought their way methodically to the Svir, inflicting nice casualties. I’m surprised to see him put a division per hex there, but it’s no matter. I’m not pushing here unless he gives me a huge opportunity, and I can’t see that happening. Northeast of Volgorod, I conduct 2 or 3 deliberate attacks against his strongest stacks, causing good casualties.

In the Valdai area, half the pocket is removed, the other half will be able to fall back on decent defensive terrain, but it should be wrapped up by 2.Army by the end of 17. I’m debating where to lay down a few forts as of this picture.






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