From: Chicago, Illinois
Hmm, the Germans starting somewhat understrength must really be hard on the armaments. If you start with everything at 100% TOE, which I did for my vs. AI games (the Soviets also got more men) and only need to replace the losses, I'm never in danger of running out of armament points. I'm not really sure how that's possible, as in both cases the system should produce similar amounts of elements, as losses are often higher than replacements.
As a clarification, the TOE's start close to 100%, but I set the TOE % on Artillery units to 50%. Despite this, the Armament pool has dropped every turn, from a start of 600,000, to now 103,000 (108K in all areas). At the current burn rate, I will be at ZERO on turn 8. Not sure how you kept going from production, but production isn't enough.
Speaking of which, the Manual says (21.1.3 of amended manual) each factory produces 500 Armament Points per Factory, at a cost of 100 Supplies; current multiplier is 100. Production never seems to match this. This turn, we produced a total of 25,750 in 145 Factories, or 177 per factory. No factories reported Supply shortages. Now, the Axis have further modifiers like 85% for Germany, but even Romanian numbers confuse me. Romania, with 6 Factories, has produced 6,000 Arm points to date. This is turn 5, so I think that represents 4 turns of production, or 1,500 per turn. That's 250 per factory, not 500. Anyone else scratching their heads over this?
TURN 5: 7/17/41
Sometimes you do a turn, and feels really good, and then you have second thoughts after closing. I am at this point this time.
Bletchley Geek has taken advantage of some sloppiness on my part with Panzer Spearheads, and I have admittedly been pushing them forward to gobble up space. It hurts the Panzers to be "bodied-up" at the start of a turn, though on the flip side I have been gobbling up territory and units, I think.
B-G hasnt' made it easy. It's obvious he carefully thinks through ZOCs, terrain, and units, with cleverly constructed checkerboards that are often just out of range of supporting Infantry. Strong units occupy the most critical hexes, and he isn't leaving obvious paths to advance. It's obvious he's played several times, and probably is more advanced than I am in these areas.
Still, I think we're giving him a game, and this turn we did make some progress in a couple areas, particularly in getting over the Dnepr.
This turn felt good as my Panzers were rampaging in B-Gs rear, tearing up airbases and whatnot, but the result looking back isn't necessarily great.
On the plus-side, I have cleared the Luga line, and put him in a position that he'll probably need to fall back on the suburbs of Leningrad. There are no forts until Pushkin now, so that's a good thing.
On the minus-side, though I don't think he can cut off my Panzers, he can restrict supply lanes to 1 or 2 hexes in a few places. This will mean few MPs next turn, and 18th Army will spend the turn clearing a wider corridor to the Panzers.
By Turn 7, we should be able though to press against Leningrad in earnest. Next turn will be about consolidating our gains up to the Suburbs of Leningrad.
He may also start evacuating factories now here, rather than down south, which would be a good thing.
Looking back, though I didn't pocket anything or grab much territory, I think I made good progress here.
Pz Gp 3 didn't do much, they are still MP-restricted, though I expect that to change shortly. We took Vitebsk, and joined-up with 2nd Army; an FBD unit is approaching Polotsk, which will bring Pz Gp 3 in good supply situation shortly.
Remember that botched HQ Buildup of Pz Gp 2's Corps? It actually paid dividends this turn, as we had the MPs to get a whole Panzer Corps across the Dnepr, along with 3 Infantry Divisions. That HQ still has 368 Fuel Depots, so next turn we won't be completely dry either, and probably able to expand the bridgehead and get more infantry across.
PELTON: I think you are right on AGC; it's probably better to build-up supplies in AGC on turns 3 and 4, and wait for the Infantry to catch-up. You just can't get supplies to Pz Gp 3 if they are past Minsk, which they should be on Turn 2.
I still like to send the extra Panzers south, but I can see the point of leaving them up north of the Pripet too. You don't need the extra Panzers in AGC until after you get across the Dnepr, but they do become important then.