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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Geek (Sov). 1.05 beta

 
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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/14/2011 12:14:34 PM   
ComradeP

 

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Although I agree that Bletchley Geek probably committed too many units, which also surprised me, I don't see it as all that much of a problem. The Soviets are mostly buying time at this point, and that's exactly what he's doing. Those extra pocketed divisions are not lost this turn, they're lost in the next turn.

As such, they also bought even more time as the infantry needs to spend MP's on cleaning them up, and to move through the hexes they occupy. With that in mind, Bletchley Geek's deployment isn't that bad, as it gives him the chance to create a 3-4 hex wide row of Soviet hexes, which will cost the Axis infantry about 9-12 MP's to move through alone, excluding the MP costs for actually forcing the units to surrender.

The infantry lagging behind will in turn increase the chance that the spearhead can be cut off again or that it can be attacked, as without infantry around to keep the Soviets busy, they can concentrate on attacking the spearhead.

So in short: yes, there are probably more units in that pocket than necessary between Proskurov and Vinnitsa, but it serves a purpose.

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/14/2011 1:05:21 PM   
timmyab

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
As such, they also bought even more time as the infantry needs to spend MP's on cleaning them up, and to move through the hexes they occupy. With that in mind, Bletchley Geek's deployment isn't that bad, as it gives him the chance to create a 3-4 hex wide row of Soviet hexes, which will cost the Axis infantry about 9-12 MP's to move through alone, excluding the MP costs for actually forcing the units to surrender.

Yes I agree that there are some advantages to the all-in approach, that's why I said 90%, but not so much territory flipping.In fact a relief effort with two or three mobile divisions would flip just as much territory apart from one or two places where Soviet units have encroached on German ZOCs.The main disadvantage for the German is the need to go around the large area of encirclement.

Edit - No, actually I see what you mean.It will hold him up for longer because the panzers haven't automatically reflipped the hexes this turn.


< Message edited by timmyab -- 9/14/2011 1:40:31 PM >

(in reply to ComradeP)
Post #: 32
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/14/2011 5:04:39 PM   
Q-Ball


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B-Gs commitment in the South will slow me up, mostly because it's very north-south, rather than east-west. My infantry will have to cross enemy hexes, which means they won't join the Panzer spearheads until turn 5. So it was successful from that aspect.

He probably didn't need to commit quite so many troops to do it. At this pace, I anticipate reaching the Dnepr with Infantry at Turn 7 at the latest, and I think he'll need to send more troops to the South, because alot of them are soon to be POWs.

Still, I think I am behind in this one the first 3 turns, for a couple reasons.

First, I pushed my Panzer spearheads ahead too far, so they could be cut-off

Second, B-G's dispositions were very good, particularly North of the Pripet, where they are extremely good. The only thing is that I saw ALOT more Russians than I could ever assemble without using RR capacity Turn 2; so I wonder if B-G used alot of RR capacity. I think he did, because looking at all the cities, I saw almost no industry evacuated. Hopefully, that will come back to haunt him.

The Industry is still all there in Kiev, Gomel, and Odessa, which should be about the first to go.

< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 9/14/2011 5:06:26 PM >

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/14/2011 5:31:33 PM   
Flaviusx


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Q-ball: I mostly don't start evacuation until turn 3 myself. Virtually all rail goes for troop movements. With the 50% rail cap penalty applying on turn 2, and with a desperate need to get your reserves forward, something has to give. You've only got 70k rail cap to play with or so. (Usually a bit less since some stuff is in transit.)

Now from turn 3 onwards, I'm pumping 100k+ rail cap into evacuations.



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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/14/2011 5:58:03 PM   
janh

 

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Hmmh, will B-G's focus on getting the reinfs forward buy him more time than one turn?  If so, then he has gained a head-start for the industry evacs.  If not, he just wasted a quite lot of reserves.

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Post #: 35
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/14/2011 7:02:32 PM   
timmyab

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Q-ball: I mostly don't start evacuation until turn 3 myself. Virtually all rail goes for troop movements. With the 50% rail cap penalty applying on turn 2, and with a desperate need to get your reserves forward, something has to give. You've only got 70k rail cap to play with or so. (Usually a bit less since some stuff is in transit.)

Now from turn 3 onwards, I'm pumping 100k+ rail cap into evacuations.



Yeah, pretty much the same here.The most I've got out on turn two is 1 HI and 1 Arm.And even that's only by being economical with troop movements.I try to get 110K+ of industry moved from turn 3 on.

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/14/2011 7:06:23 PM   
ComradeP

 

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Previously, I would normally evacuate all of Mogilev's factories on turn 2, but that's no longer on the menu now that recent changes make it more crucial for more units to be at or near the front ASAP.

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/15/2011 8:18:40 PM   
Q-Ball


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Turn 4: 7/2/41

AGN and AGC:

Progress in these areas was limited by Fuel, and also limited by our infantry playing catch-up. It's pretty difficult to sustain an advance with only Panzers, and I think pretty much impossible after the first couple turns. Maybe I shouldn't be disappointed, it's to be expected that I grind to a halt.

AGN:

Had I to do it over, I would have swung further south of Pskov, instead of bull-rushing it. I did clear the town turn 4, so it's not a complete disaster, and I have a full Panzer Corps on HQ Buildup this turn, so next turn we should see some movement.

The Russians seem to have bugged-out alot of the units around Pskov. I sent some recon to figure out where, but I can guess well enough.

Next turn, we should have some infantry support, so things should improve.

2nd Army:

I did with 2nd Army what most people do: I sent it between 9th and 16th. If you don't do that, a pretty large gap develops eventually, so this seems necessary.

At this point, 2nd Army though is only 5 divisions; I plan to give them the Static Divisions, but this is Army is not really an offensive one.

I have sent 2 Infantry Division reinforcements to AGS, and 3 or 4 to AGN.

AGC:

Between my mis-handling of HQ buildup for the 1 Panzer Corps of Pz Gp2, and the fact that I sent the other two Panzer Corps to the south, means Pz Gp 3 is working alone at this point. Which means, it's bogging down.

Fuel is a problem of course. I managed to fly-in alot by NOT using any planes on ground support at all, and saving all bombers for fuel, but even doing that there is a limited amount you can accomplish. As a result, we were able to close up the Dnepr, take Mogilev, and bump a couple units, but that's it. Next turn, we attack in force, when I have some infantry support.

Minsk was finally liquidated, with 2 divisions surrendering.

LUFTWAFFE: I have turned-off ground support now for 2 turns; instead, I am flying massive bomber missions of fuel. Doesn't do a whole lot actually, but every bit helps. As resistance stiffens, and the RR gets closer, I will probably put it back on ground support missions.









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< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 9/16/2011 6:29:41 PM >

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/16/2011 1:50:07 AM   
cherryfunk

 

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I'm curious, why reduce artillery to 50% TOE?


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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/16/2011 6:47:39 PM   
Q-Ball


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quote:

ORIGINAL: cherryfunk

I'm curious, why reduce artillery to 50% TOE?


Because Armament points are dear; at game-start, I had a pool of 600,000 for Germany. That is now down to 179,000, and falling each turn, so I will run out shortly. I would rather keep Rifles in the line than artillery at this point. When production increases after winter, I'll turn Artillery back-on.

Turn 4: South

I think BG posted an update on the big happening: He broke my massive pocket around Proskurov. I didn't think he could do it, because I only saw weak units, and I made it so he would have to "flip" a hex before attacking, making Deliberate attacks all but impossible.

Several bombing runs on GD Mot Regt, followed by 3 hasty attacks, did it. The first two were near suicidal, and just increased fatigue, the last one barely tipped it over.

Tip of the hat to BG, that put my timetable seriously behind in the south. I ended up bumping a couple units just to reduce the pocket sizes, but I didn't want to wholesale rout them. I managed to move infantry around both sides, but it's still putting me a turn behind.

So, mostly my turn was about salvaging something positive out of this problem. That meant further push east, and moving infantry around the pocket, and closing it shut for good this time.

We pushed a number of weak units that routed or retreated, and I also punched HQ buildup for 1 corps of 1st Panzer on the other side of the pocket. I pushed a bit east to give us a head-start, and also cut the rails to Odessa.


Around Kirovgrad, I had a decision to make; do I clear the 3 Arm and 3 HI there, but leave a couple units likely to get cut-off, or do I "play it short"? I decided to play it short and put them on HQ Buildup, so we should be able to run rampant next turn in the South, after I liquidate the pockets that is. What would you have done: Gone for the industry, or held up?

I miscaluclated the LVOV pocket; it still has like 10 divisions in there. I have intentionally left it alone to move infantry East, and leave it for the Axis Allies, who will now reduce it in earnest starting turn 5. They aren't going anywhere.





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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 1:42:00 AM   
glvaca

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

By the Numbers:

A few questions asked on numbers; here you go.



Very nice! Thanks for reporting!

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 12:06:04 PM   
ComradeP

 

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Hmm, the Germans starting somewhat understrength must really be hard on the armaments. If you start with everything at 100% TOE, which I did for my vs. AI games (the Soviets also got more men) and only need to replace the losses, I'm never in danger of running out of armament points. I'm not really sure how that's possible, as in both cases the system should produce similar amounts of elements, as losses are often higher than replacements.

< Message edited by ComradeP -- 9/18/2011 12:07:01 PM >


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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 12:59:03 PM   
Pelton

 

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quote:

LUFTWAFFE: I really have a problem with the Luftwaffe. I am not very good at managing Airpower; somehow, the Luftwaffe is in seriously bad shape, with many damaged aircraft. My transports are in terrible shape, and most units are under 50% capable. I also wonder if moving them forward has really hurt under the new rules. Is anyone else experiencing a big spike in Luftwaffe problems?


You should only use transports in north before turn 5 and just once. The first 2 turns all units have allot of supplys. In the south if you put the railheads in right spot you have good supplys the first 4 turns. AGC is just not going to make a push until turn 5 and supply by air is not going to be enough because you need a masicive amount of units to break the lines.

AGN:Now that poeple see that arm pts are huge and will be railing out stuff, Leningrad is a side show.
AGC: Becomes as important for the German as AGS, once across the river or through landbridge there are alllot of arm pts to bag and there will be presure on 2 fronts and not one.
AGS: Still big.

Q-ball I think you over committed in south, one extra mech corps is more then enough. I used 3 infantry divisions to get that 7 division pocket near Rovno

Pelton



< Message edited by Pelton -- 9/18/2011 1:09:27 PM >

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 3:39:04 PM   
Q-Ball


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Hmm, the Germans starting somewhat understrength must really be hard on the armaments. If you start with everything at 100% TOE, which I did for my vs. AI games (the Soviets also got more men) and only need to replace the losses, I'm never in danger of running out of armament points. I'm not really sure how that's possible, as in both cases the system should produce similar amounts of elements, as losses are often higher than replacements.


As a clarification, the TOE's start close to 100%, but I set the TOE % on Artillery units to 50%. Despite this, the Armament pool has dropped every turn, from a start of 600,000, to now 103,000 (108K in all areas). At the current burn rate, I will be at ZERO on turn 8. Not sure how you kept going from production, but production isn't enough.

Speaking of which, the Manual says (21.1.3 of amended manual) each factory produces 500 Armament Points per Factory, at a cost of 100 Supplies; current multiplier is 100. Production never seems to match this. This turn, we produced a total of 25,750 in 145 Factories, or 177 per factory. No factories reported Supply shortages. Now, the Axis have further modifiers like 85% for Germany, but even Romanian numbers confuse me. Romania, with 6 Factories, has produced 6,000 Arm points to date. This is turn 5, so I think that represents 4 turns of production, or 1,500 per turn. That's 250 per factory, not 500. Anyone else scratching their heads over this?

TURN 5: 7/17/41

Sometimes you do a turn, and feels really good, and then you have second thoughts after closing. I am at this point this time.

Bletchley Geek has taken advantage of some sloppiness on my part with Panzer Spearheads, and I have admittedly been pushing them forward to gobble up space. It hurts the Panzers to be "bodied-up" at the start of a turn, though on the flip side I have been gobbling up territory and units, I think.

B-G hasnt' made it easy. It's obvious he carefully thinks through ZOCs, terrain, and units, with cleverly constructed checkerboards that are often just out of range of supporting Infantry. Strong units occupy the most critical hexes, and he isn't leaving obvious paths to advance. It's obvious he's played several times, and probably is more advanced than I am in these areas.

Still, I think we're giving him a game, and this turn we did make some progress in a couple areas, particularly in getting over the Dnepr.

AGN:

This turn felt good as my Panzers were rampaging in B-Gs rear, tearing up airbases and whatnot, but the result looking back isn't necessarily great.

On the plus-side, I have cleared the Luga line, and put him in a position that he'll probably need to fall back on the suburbs of Leningrad. There are no forts until Pushkin now, so that's a good thing.

On the minus-side, though I don't think he can cut off my Panzers, he can restrict supply lanes to 1 or 2 hexes in a few places. This will mean few MPs next turn, and 18th Army will spend the turn clearing a wider corridor to the Panzers.

By Turn 7, we should be able though to press against Leningrad in earnest. Next turn will be about consolidating our gains up to the Suburbs of Leningrad.

He may also start evacuating factories now here, rather than down south, which would be a good thing.

AGC:

Looking back, though I didn't pocket anything or grab much territory, I think I made good progress here.

Pz Gp 3 didn't do much, they are still MP-restricted, though I expect that to change shortly. We took Vitebsk, and joined-up with 2nd Army; an FBD unit is approaching Polotsk, which will bring Pz Gp 3 in good supply situation shortly.

Remember that botched HQ Buildup of Pz Gp 2's Corps? It actually paid dividends this turn, as we had the MPs to get a whole Panzer Corps across the Dnepr, along with 3 Infantry Divisions. That HQ still has 368 Fuel Depots, so next turn we won't be completely dry either, and probably able to expand the bridgehead and get more infantry across.

PELTON: I think you are right on AGC; it's probably better to build-up supplies in AGC on turns 3 and 4, and wait for the Infantry to catch-up. You just can't get supplies to Pz Gp 3 if they are past Minsk, which they should be on Turn 2.

I still like to send the extra Panzers south, but I can see the point of leaving them up north of the Pripet too. You don't need the extra Panzers in AGC until after you get across the Dnepr, but they do become important then.




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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 4:03:55 PM   
Q-Ball


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Turn 5, SOUTH:

This area has presented me with several opportunities and dilemmas, all at once. Each turn when I open it, it looks like chaos has broken out. I hoped to create a little of my own.

I pushed the Panzers quite a bit this turn, more than I maybe should have. But twin temptations made me move forward.

First, INDUSTRY; I cut the rails to Kirovograd, and burned Kremenchug, toasting the 5 Arm and 5 HI in those towns.

Second, I cleared several hexes of the Dnepr next to Cherkassy; I could have crossed the SS Division over, but too risky. Instead, I just wanted to make sure there are no forts there, as we can use it to cross.

I kind of hate to move parallel to the Dnepr rather than cross it, but the heavy forces around Kiev compelled me to, and I plan to cross around Cherkassy, rather than push east toward D-Town.

AGS NORTH: There is a heavy concentration of Russians in front of Kiev; too many to really push. I formed a minor pocket around Zhitomir; if B-G moves alot of foces forward he can probably break it, but that would be pretty risky, given what's happening further east around Cherkassy.

We liquidated the Proskurov-Vinnitsa pocket, as well as finishing-off the Lvov pocket. A total of 160,000 POW's from both pockets, and something like 20 divisions in the last turn (I had already liquidated quite a few units from Lvov). The easy pocketing is over though, so from here on out we have to fight for it. So far, the Russians have lost 1.3 mil, with 920K POWs. We have lost 134K, but almost 1000 tanks. That's probably the last of the 10-1 ratios we will see.

LOSSES: Axis 134,000, 1000 AFVs; Soviets 1.33 mil men, 12,300 AFVs. Given my Armament Point shortages, I am happy to capture Soviet Artillery, which will get used.

AGS SOUTH:
We broke thorugh the Soviet line of resistance west of Cherkassy; it was about 2 rows deep of checkerboard, plus the units pressed against my Panzers. Once they were cleared, several units went on a rampage.

We pushed piles of Airbases, routed units, and HQs, though doing this is like eating Nachos; immediately satisfying, but not that nutritious. Doesn't really do much. To this day, I still don't see where the captured Fuel and Supplies go, even though they would come in very handy!

We tore up rails and forts, and generally created havoc. I will be short of fuel next turn there, but on the flip side, I think B-G will have difficulty establishing a line, and will probably think twice about the large commitment around Kiev.

Around ODESSA, he is fighting an effective delaying action. He pinned my Panzers (ouch), which had cut the rail line last turn. This was a problem. I am making slow progress, but need to push to clear the RR line.

INDUSTRY UPDATE:

Toasted to date: 9 Arm and 9 HI (Minsk, Mogilev, Kremenchug). Another 6 of each are stuck in Kirovograd and Odess, and shant be leaving.

B-G last turn moved the Armaments at Poltava; he seems to be leaving the small cities, and moving the big ones. That's probably the right choice.




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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 6:18:28 PM   
Klydon


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Unless they fixed it, he will have no issue getting industry out of Odessa since you don't have a unit next to it. Port cities are like this and it ticks me off, because even if you cut the Odessa rail line, Odessa is still considered on the network itself and that means he can evacuate the industry there using rail movement. It is something that needs to be fixed at some point because it doesn't make sense. Now, he may miss it. If he does, consider yourself lucky and get someone next to Odessa.

Good commentary as always and I really enjoy following your AAR's.

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 6:59:56 PM   
Pelton

 

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Nice job so far.


< Message edited by Pelton -- 9/18/2011 7:13:51 PM >

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/18/2011 7:13:32 PM   
Pelton

 

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Nice job so far.
You have bagged allot of units so far. He will be very weak from turns 10-13. If your railheads are across rivers by then hes probably toast.

You just need a big push in center and things will really start falling apart for him.

Hes at the point now where he will have to train units in or there will be no resistance in front of you.

He made some big errors tring to slow you down turns 2-4.

Production numbers will grow quickly once your over both rivers.

Shot for 70 arm. I thk Russian should shot for 50. Now German or Russian change the numbers some based on losses and manpower center.

Right now most Russian players are freaking out tring to save everything and paying for it later.
Should be very easy to keep arm under 50. Just look at map it should be a cake walk to keep it under 50. Probably 44 is what I would shot for as Russian, that is very doable and still leave allot of rail for moving troops to front or back.

We really will not know until we get these games to Jan 43 atleast, what the hard number is for most poeple, if all things are equal.

I thk game balance is very close right now, tweak hq build up so you cant transfer units around, tweak production from 135 to 150 and I thk that be about right.

Once 1 Russian player does the ecav thing the right way everyone will be doing it and the game will be desided during 42, which is what it should be as historical.

Pelton

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/19/2011 4:39:37 AM   
Q-Ball


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Quick Update for my records: I have turn 6, and am working on it, but need to go to bed.

On moves so far, I have cleared industry in Odessa, Kiev, Kirovgrad, Gomel, and Nikolev, bringing the total industry destroyed up to 24 Arm and 24HI. I still haven't moved a Panzer Corps in AGS, which happens to be the one with the most MPs. I have reconned like crazy, and can't decide between going for a breakout over the Dnepr, or a big pocket around Krivoi Rog.

I also have a decision to make in AGC; do I push on the landbridge, or forget it and circle south.

Decisions, decisions....

(in reply to Pelton)
Post #: 49
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/19/2011 10:00:18 AM   
ComradeP

 

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I guessed you would get across the Luga, his defences were not particularly strong/non-existent at your breakthrough point.

Although I can see why there's room for optimism for AGS, I don't think Bletchley Geek made truly serious errors with his forward defence, as all he has to do is slow you down, and he did. 6th Army was delayed for at least a turn and you serious reinforcement of AGS has as of turn 5 not resulted in gains that couldn't have been achieved with AGS's own armour.

AGC's progress thus far has been slow due to moving most of a Panzer Group to AGS. As the Axis, you constantly have to keep in mind that you, at this point, need to keep going forward and thus need to make gains every turn. It would seem reasonable to assume that at least one of the two Panzer Corps you send to AGS could've done more good for AGC than they've done for AGS up to this point.

His losses are also not all that serious, he can afford to lose Tank divisions for example.

Another thing many Axis players seem to forget is that making some serious leaps in the Ukraine isn't all that difficult. The Soviets simply don't have the units, and the vast majority of their units can be forced to retreat/rout with a single attack. Capturing 10 hexes with 40+ MP mobile divisions is not any kind of special achievement, it's normal. Anything less is sort of a strategic victory for the Soviets.

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RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/19/2011 10:35:49 PM   
Q-Ball


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Turn 6

How am I doing?:

ComradeP and Pelton, thanks for your feedback, because I would like to know "how I am doing". Both of you have alot more experience as the Axis than I do. I think I have the basics down for the engine, but by temperament, I think I am a better Soviet player than Axis. It was time to do an Axis game though.

Your assessments are kind of different; Pelton says "OK", and ComradeP you always rain on AGS's parade! Point taken though.

Had I to do it over again, I wouldn't send the extra Panzers south. I would send 1 Panzer Corps, but not 2. I think this has slowed me in AGC, though that wasn't helped by my botch of the HQ buildup rules.

I think B-G is a very good player. His dispositions are excellent, and he is very aggressive at counterattacking. This turn, he pushed at least 4 Panzer units, and is using several bombing runs and hasty attacks to "soften" them before attacking. That shows a real understanding of the engine. He is very aware of ZOCs and terrain, and is not presenting any easy targets. My turns take a long time to do, and sometimes I run into roadblocks, like I did this turn in AGC.

He uses alot of checkerboards, so I do get alot of easy attacks; my Panzer units win victory after victory with hasty attacks on Rifle divisions in the open, but they are also wearing out in that process.

Overall, B-G is trading men for time, and succeeding for the most part. The ONLY criticisms I would have of him, actually are a) he sometimes over commits to counterattacks and leaves his guys exposed, and b) he isn't picking-up any Fort Zones at all. As Soviets, I pick-up all the Fort Zones, to save the guns mostly.

Any feedback would be appreciated.

INDUSTRY: B-G has an interesting strategy in Industry Evacs: He is evacuating the largest cities first, NOT those close to the front.

That means that I have taken 24 Arm so far, with another 3 in the bag. But in the Ukriane, the closest armaments now are Stalino, as he has moved everything from Kharkov, Poltava, and D-Town already. He is also leaving HI, and moving Armaments and AFVs. I think this is the correct strategy, but I also think any decent Soviet player should be able to save most Armaments if you prioritize it, which looks like B-G is doing.

So, I have overrun Armaments in Minsk, Mogilev, Odessa, Kiev, Kirovograd, Kremenchug, Gomel, Nikolev, and soon to be Krivoi Rog....but after that, not much until the Volga. There is no way to get to D-Town before turn 5 (when he moved it), and I don't think Kharkov before turn 8 or 9 is attainable, unless there is a huge mismatch in skills.

Anyway, probably it's the right strategy. I'll just have to take the scraps I can get to.

AGN:

I stretched to get over the Luga, and figured this turn I would have to mostly play catch-up to the Panzers. I was right. Good moves by B-G created supply problems, but I will reach over the Luga Turn 7 with Infantry, which will put pressure on Leningrad.

I forgot to mention: The FINNS are in action, and they have surrounded 2 Infantry Divisions. The one around Viborg somehow escaped; must have gotten 16 MPs, I usually get that one. With opening dispositions, it seems like 2 or 3 Soviet Rifle Divisions are doomed right away (along with a couple fort zones).

The industry in Leningrad is almost gone. I am not committing more up here, AGN is on it's own, but I would like to reach a good defense line if I don't take the place.

AGC: Well, at least I am firmly over the Dnepr Turn 6, so it's not a total disaster. Moscow is not attainable at this pace, not with the large concentration of troops in this sector.




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(in reply to ComradeP)
Post #: 51
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/19/2011 10:59:48 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 5550
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From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
Turn 6, SOUTH:

I had a real decision to make this turn.

After moving all my infantry and a couple Armored units, I found I had a clear path across the Dnepr, AND a potential opportunity to bag a number of units along the Ingul river.

See below; not sure how far I would have gotten over the Dnepr, but recon indicated that defenses were just the one row deep there, so I could have pushed them easily. At least 3 units would have crossed with 15+ MPs left, but I'll never know how far they would get. I didn't feel I would drive to Poltava anyway, even if I could; don't want them cut-off over there.

I decided on the pocket; even if it doesn't 100% hold, there aren't alot of Soviets east of it, so I can stay out of trouble. I hope to destroy enough units to make it a problem for him down there.

Ultimately, the tipping point was Cavalry; as a Soviet player, I absolutely love Cavalry Corps, so nailing 4 Cav divisions seemed helpful.

LOSSES TO DATE:

The Soviets have now lost 1.53 mil, to my 172,000. This turn, we had our smallest prisoner haul, but we still topped 1 mil POWs.

I realize units come back, and Tank Divisions aren't worth much. I do think it's important to destroy them, not for the units, but for the 8,000 men and more importantly, 1500 Vehicles in each one. Losing alot of Vehicles in 1941 will impact the number of tank regts the Red Army can get into the field in 1942-43 (because losing tanks WILL NOT; Reds get plenty of those). So, destroying a Tank Division means I won't see approx. 10 more Tank Regts in 1942 (which need 150 Vehicles per).

In my game vs. Tarhunnas, I lost well over 40,000 AFVs through 1942, and still had plenty of tanks in the pool. I would have put them all on the map, except I didn't have the vehicles to support that.




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(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 52
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/19/2011 11:31:08 PM   
ComradeP

 

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Bletchley Geek would need some pretty poor MP rolls if that pocket is to hold, as the cavalry division closest to the pocket only needs ~15 MP's to open it. The two north of Kirovograd are toast, though, unless he gets 19 MP's for the division next to Kirovograd or the one 4 hexes southwest of it.

I'm surprised you could walk into Kiev like that. What was in the hex, if anything?

I normally rain on AGS's parade because they have by far the most territory to cover with mobile units compared to AGC and AGN.

I agree that taking out the vehicles in the Tank divisions is nice, but its full effect will depend mostly on how vehicle heavy his army will be later on.

As a general note, you might want to pay more attention to ensuring that the hexes you capture can't be changed back simply with unit ZOC in many cases.

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(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 53
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/21/2011 4:53:20 AM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 5550
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Bletchley Geek would need some pretty poor MP rolls if that pocket is to hold, as the cavalry division closest to the pocket only needs ~15 MP's to open it. The two north of Kirovograd are toast, though, unless he gets 19 MP's for the division next to Kirovograd or the one 4 hexes southwest of it.

I'm surprised you could walk into Kiev like that. What was in the hex, if anything?

As a general note, you might want to pay more attention to ensuring that the hexes you capture can't be changed back simply with unit ZOC in many cases.


I just got the turn; I may have been lucky, or B-G missed it, but that pocket held. 130,000 POWs hit the cages. I haven't done the rest of the turn or moved Panzers yet, but Recon shows very little east of that pocket, just a weak checkerboard of units. Then again, D-Town and Z-Town are picked clean, so not much to charge forward for yet. I'll have to think about next moves, but probably hell-bent for the Donbas.

At Kiev, there was a single unit. IIRC, it was a Mot Div, which is usually easy pickings. It took 2 Panzer units on Deliberate Attack, but they cleared it. There was noone else in any of the adjacent hexes.

No argument on clearing ZOCs. Sometimes you just don't have the units to cover everything.

Turn 7

I don't have time to do the whole turn, but I did liquidate the pockets, bagging over 130K in POWs. The easy pockets are over I think, as B-G is falling back, and I have taken all the easy ones near the frontier.

I am so far pleased with the progress in the South; we will be firmly across the Dnepr this turn, in a couple spots, and I think I can form a small pocket even (Not sure yet; I still don't have alot of infantry over the Dnepr in the South)

Leningrad area is a problem though

Update from Reich Railway Minister:

We have completed the following Rail Lines:
-AGN: Through Riga and Pskov; currently building NE of Pskov. AGN is right on the railhead, and in excellent supply
-AGC: One line through the Baltic States and is just on the outskirts of Vitebsk; this is feeding most of AGC. Within 2 turns, we should be in Smolensk.

Further south, another FBD is building north of the Pripet; they are about 2 turns from crossing the Dnepr, and heading south through Gomel, then east.

-AGS:
One line is Rovno-Zhitomir, and is about 3 turns from Kiev, and over the Dnepr

Another line is Kishinev-Odessa, and is building toward Nikolev

I plan to build a "beltway" before winter, mostly along the Dnepr line roughly.

< Message edited by Q-Ball -- 9/21/2011 10:21:38 PM >

(in reply to ComradeP)
Post #: 54
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/21/2011 11:19:24 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 5550
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
Turn 7: North

OVERALL: Army Group Center finally had a good turn, if good means pocketing a bunch of Soviet units. This is thanks to our infantry finally being over the Dnepr, along with good MPs in our Mobile forces.

AGN is a bit stalled though.

LOSS and OOB Numbers:

I don't have a good sense for benchmarks, but I think 1.78 mil Soviets by Turn 7 is pretty good. I figure to get another 200,000 or so next turn, so I should be topping 2 mil in Turn 9. That gives me a full 8 more to get to the 3 mil mark.

I am prioritizing unit destruction. Not for the units, but to keep the size of the Red Army down. With the new Fort Rules, and I seriously worried about Winter, and maybe the best defense is a good offense; kill Reds before the Blizzard. That's my hope anyway.

I am very very paranoid about Blizzard, because I really turned around my game vs. Tarhunnas during the Blizzard. I don't want to be on the receiving end of something like that!




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(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 55
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/21/2011 11:36:47 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 5550
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
Turn 7, AGS:

Here is the update. Not a great turn, but I'm well over the Dnepr at least.

I expect him to abandon the Dnepr line through Cherkassy; it would be too dangerous to stay. We should be able to link-up with AGC in a couple turns, then push toward Kursk.




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(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 56
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/23/2011 10:40:07 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 5550
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
Turn 8 Update:

OVERALL: I am starting to slow down in terms of progress. Not a great turn for me; we only destroyed 6 units, because B-G broke one of my pockets. We have about 21 Divisions hopelessly cut right now, so next turn should be OK, but I'm not 100% happy with the progress.

I made a tough decision this turn in AGS: I actually halted 2 Panzer Corps. They were tired, short of vehicles, and short of fuel after numerous pockets. They had no infantry support, so they figured to do more heavy fighting to get anywhere. So, I decided to HALT, REFIT, and HQ Buildup. They are not within contact of Soviet Troops, so should REST and REFIT to a nice level. Next turn, loaded for Bear! Let's see what they do next turn.

Winter Prep: Too early to prep for winter? I have done one thing: I parked the Axis Allied Mountain Units on REFIT. They will gain morale and experience doing nothing before winter. I want them as strong as possible. I might as well, because in the Summer, they really dont' contribute much from a combat perspective.

At some point around T15 or 16, I will pull the German Mountain units and do the same.

AGN:

I opened the turn to several 3-deep Soviet stacks. Almost impossible to pocket anyone, not without massive counterattacks. I managed to push 6 stacks, routing several units, and gaining favorable ratios. Not sure I'm making the right kind of progress though. One attack resulted in 9700 Dead Reds (to my 675 losses).

Either I suck, or B-G is really committing to Leningrad. Some units are "Moscow PM Rifle" units, so I know he has shipped some in from Moscow. I identified at least 37 Divisions between Pushkin and Novgorod, 10 of which I routed. That seems like alot!

It's enough to hold the place it seems; I haven't reinforced AGN, and it's showing now. 18th Army is a good formation, but not so good it can take on that many Soviets and win.

AGC:

B-G broke my pocket with a single Cav division; it must have had at least 21 MPs. Oh well! We did get some payback; that Cav unit was pushed West into the re-sealed pocket. Serves them right.

Smolensk is surrounded, and will fall. We really blew two big holes in the Red Lines, but we didnt' have the Mobile MPs to exploit much after doing so. We did round up some routed units and airbases again, which is grand fun, but that's it.

I expect a major pullback now by B-G to good terrain to the West.

AGS:

The Panzer Corps around Kiev that was fueled from HQ Buildup routed a number of units, and pocketed 7 divisions that should be doomed. We also broke out from the Cherkassy bridgehead, expanding it. We need to move east next turn, though, especially now that we have some infantry support.

In the South, we managed to get across the Dnepr near Nikolev. I expect to be at the Crimean bottlenecks in a couple turns. If the Soviets are weak, we will advance into the Crimea, but I don't intend to put much into it. We'll see. The Crimea is a sideshow.

I also halted the Panzers down there. Tough decision, but the alternative was to attack some units behind a river line, without any infantry support. The Panzers were short on Fuel and Tanks, and needed a break. One Panzer Corps was in HQ Buildup range so I punched it, and put everyone where they could rest, away from the front. Hopefully, these units will benefit from the break.




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(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 57
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/25/2011 12:47:35 AM   
von altair


Posts: 291
Joined: 4/27/2004
Status: offline
Good job Q-Ball.

Could you please add some information about your airwar as well.
Seems that quite few players are intrested about this side of the war. My
humble opinnion is, that airwar is currently broken. Germans are taking too much
casualties and doing too few soviet ones. Currently soviets can gain airsuperiority
at turn 11 if they choose to. Airsuperiority fights are supposed to happen
by airbombings but with latest patch Germany cant gain or keep airsuperiority.
A huge armada of reds are going to overun Luftwaffe and most players are
prefering houserules "USSR: plz dont attack tinyluftwaffe airbases, or if you must,
only once!"

_____________________________

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(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 58
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/25/2011 1:06:17 AM   
stone10


Posts: 240
Joined: 9/20/2008
Status: offline
You don't want to build your rail line through Odessa because the Soviets could use their amphibious transport ability to raid your rail line

(in reply to von altair)
Post #: 59
RE: Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v Bletchley Ge... - 9/25/2011 4:04:30 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 5550
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: von altair
Could you please add some information about your airwar as well.
Seems that quite few players are intrested about this side of the war. My
humble opinnion is, that airwar is currently broken. Germans are taking too much
casualties and doing too few soviet ones.


The Air War mystifies me, and I was about to ask, because I think my Luftwaffe is doing poorly. I wonder if it's something I am doing.

Air losses so far are 7,304 Soviet, and 1,437 Axis. Throw out the first turn, though, and it's about 1.5 to 1 most turns. This is despite the fact that I have displaced airbases at least a dozen times. In straight-up A2A, it's about even; despite the fact the Reds are using alot of old planes still.

Not sure if there is a change, or I'm not doing something effectively, but I may need some help. The only thing I am doing a little differently: I have turned Ground Support OFF for many turns to keep bombers for Supply Drops, and I have used alot of Bombers for Supply drops. Even with heavy escorts, we usually take more losses on Soviet intercepts.

TURN 9

OVERALL: B-G and I have exchanged a couple notes on where we think things are. So far, I think my results are MIXED; would love feedback from the Gallery, because benchmarking is hard. But here is where things are:

INDUSTRY: I have taken 27 Armaments, and 27 Heavy Industry. I have detailed B-Gs strategy before though, and it's paying fruit now, as I don't see how I'm going to significantly build on this total.

Leningrad is cleaned out. Kharkov has T-34s left, but no armaments. Stalino is almost cleaned out, and it's turn 9 (!). Pretty tough to get there by turn 10! Bryansk area is clean. Small Armament factories remain here and there, but I have no chance, IMO, of taking anything big.

IMO, any Soviet player pursuing this strategy should be able to limit losses to no more than 30, or about 8%. B-G was just smart enough to recognize that.

So, in terms of INDUSTRY, I will end up very So-So.

RED ARMY LOSSES:

In my opinion, this is the BEST area for me right now. The Red Army has lost 2.23 mil so far through turn 9, including 1.53 mil POWs. Destroyed units don't matter too much, except that 44 Motorized Units lost means alot of Vehicles for them.

As a rule, I see 3 mil Reds as a good target for Summer; I think we are track to exceed that potentially.

AXIS MANPOWER LOSSES:

So far, we have lost 287,000 men. That's not terrible, and with 120,000 Hiwis coming to our side, I think we are not to badly off here.

TERRITORY:

Not really sure here how I'm doing.

Up North, I am behind if anything; that may be partly due to B-G committing so much to Leningrad. In the SOUTH, I am in pretty good shape, threatening Kharkov already by turn 10, and everyone is firmly over the Dnepr from end to end.

I'm probably doing OK here.

TANKS:

This is a big problem for me. I am pushing my Panzers, and as a result, I am burning through tanks at a huge rate.

I am down to 1,900 German tanks already. I have lost well over 200 each turn. I keep pushing forward to encircle and destroy the Reds, but I am really in trouble in Tank Strength. Now, some of the lost number are types like Pz Is and 35-ts, which I could care less about. But I've lost over 500 Pz IIIs and IVs.

I need to think about halting all my Panzers, and allowing the Infantry to fully catch-up. We have been using Infantry alot more lately, but B-G is withdrawing about 4 hexes a turn in many places, just enough to keep my guys from launching deliberate attacks.








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