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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek

 
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RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/19/2011 9:39:44 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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Turn 24 – 27 November 1941

The stage is set for the December 1941 drama. Q-Ball activity has steadily been going down as we have approached December. This turn he's launched just 17 attacks, winning all of them but 2. Most of the attacks purpose have been to either rectify the line to his liking or to push back my forces and make sure he could get some more fort building done.

Operational Situation Report

German-Finnish forces do a final push northeast of Vishny Volochek



the Finnish have suffered about 1,500 casualties in those two attacks. It's likely that he uses the Finns to keep the pressure here, so I have to divert combat formations. But it's a bit like walking a tightrope, if things get serious the Finnish Army might get some serious attrition.

He finishes clearing the bridgehead I had west of the Tveritsa river, just north of Torzhok



if I hadn't attacked, perhaps I would have been able to keep this valuable position. In any case, this area is going to see some heavy fighting in one or two turns.

39th PzKorps smashes the level-4 fort I had just east of Mozhaisk



the battle wasn't as one sided as it would appear at a first quick look. Compare the number of destroyed and damaged elements during Ground combat. This was a really tough fight for the Germans, retreat losses accounting for two thirds of my losses.

South of Voronezh, Q-Ball has attacked and I don't really understand why



those two German infantry divisions are really weak and lie in the direct path of one of my main offensive directions. I'll try to hurt them as much as I can this turn.

Southern Front gets spanked again, but not much



they even managed to repulse one attack, hurrah!

Yet another turn where the only Luftwaffe planes in the air have been recon and fighter airframes.

Logistics & Organization

Everything is under control here. I haven't been able to build much artillery – which is key to bring down Germans – since Rifle formations have suffered substantial losses during these three turns. Armaments and tank production are recovering quickly, though. Units are getting up to strength and the trend of manpower being accumulated is becoming steady at something like 32,000 men per turn. That means I'm fielding something like 88,000 men per turn.

The Red Army has recovered quite well from its all time low in early October



Mud turns and timid Axis offensives during Snow turns makes the Red Army to grow accordingly.

Operations

Time to assemble the forces for the early December strikes. It certainly worries me accumulating too much stuff and giving Q-Ball too much info. I think it's worthwile to limit Red Army concentration for the first turn, and use railroads to commit the forces on that same turn. But well, let's hope the VVS fighters keep those pesky German recon planes with their heads down this turn.

On the other hand, I order the Red Army units to hug his enemies and attack where good odds of success can be obtained. 9 such attacks were launched, 6 of them meeting with success, which costed my guys 3 times as many losses. Sigh.

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(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 211
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/20/2011 9:46:33 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


Posts: 3055
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Turn 25 – 4 December 1941

I must admit I left work early today to get the soonest possible my hands on this turn.

Operational Situation Report

The valiant 18. Armee flees to the west. Recon has been extremely ineffective this turn, and I don't know exactly where he's exactly going



Note how the Finnish Army has decided to hug Northern Front positions and menaces with attacking. If the Finns want to play, we'll play.

I wasn't sure if Q-Ball was to retreat to the positions he's been preparing northeast of Rzhev, but seems he wants to dispute the Tveritsa crossing



which I think it's a good idea. The river will shield somewhat his forces, and blocking the path to Rzhev is extremely important for the Axis.

He's also holding fast in front of Moscow



not many chances to make much headway here in December. Mostly nibbling here and there waiting for the situation in the flanks obliging him to reevaluate his positions. In Tula he's only holding fast along the river lines, leaving one hex between his forces and mine in other places



the same pattern repeats south of Voronezh, Q-Ball is going to refuge himself behind the riverlines



He's also retreated slightly in the Voroshilovgrad – Rostov area



here Q-Ball has done something I seldom seen my Axis opponents doing: splitting the Gebirgsjäger divisions to protect the most of the line. This is going to be a tough blizzard, indeed. But in this particular case, it's nice that he put the Gebirgsjäger Regiments just between my main axis of advance. And in the Crimea he felt uncomfortable all of a sudden



Should I cry now “this is not fair, he's not waiting for me to pound him”? Or “the game doesn't allow me enough strategic options”?

Logistics & Organization

This turn I haven't been so lucky with the damaged Armament factories producing something, and less Armament points have been produced. This turn only 75,000 new recruits have been put into the line.

Finally, I get my first Corps



Note the SU package: 1 Tk Bn, 1 AT Rgt, 1 MG-Arty Bn. No sappers into these guys. These aren't shock troops, but mobile troops. I know the merits of this are debatable – in terms of raw CV these are perhaps the most powerful Soviet formations – but I feel I would wasting their real ability, their mobility.

As planned, I build 12 of these guys in the first batch:



Now we're ready to rumble!

Operations

Q-Ball operational retreats haven't thrown off the rails the operations I have laid out on Turn 23. I really want to get to those places, first and foremost. If the German Army feels so generous as not interfering too much, well, thank you OKH! This is a bit like solving the paradox of Achilles and the Turtle, the Red Army being an old, lame Achilles. It's all about the relative speeds.

The Torzhok-Rzhev Offensive operation has met swift and unexpected initial success:



On the north, the joint effort of 11th Army (N. Gusev) and 28th Army (M. Purkaev) has recovered the bridgehead we had over the Tveritsa. On the south, 24th Army (S. Kalinin), evicted the 197 and 97 Infantry Divisions from their positions. If the north pincer where Germans, we would have already got a nice pocket here. Q-Ball will have to counterattack the Tank Brigade if he wants to get out of the trap Torzhok has become. There are three Panzer Divisions in that “finger”.

The Moscow diversion has yield quite good results



this means this diversion will continue, and perhaps escalate to a full-blown push supporting the advances towards Rzhev or Kaluga, if it doesn't run quickly into a wall of bricks.

The Tula-Yelets Strategic Offensive operation has smashed several forward German positions



Losses here have been surprisingly low in the successful attacks. I see a powerful German concentration in Tula itself. I don't know if he'll try to counterattack (I would). 1st Shock Army has already joined the fray and the 2nd Shock Army will soon commence operations north of Tula. 31st Army has had some more trouble maneuvering.

The Rossoh-Valyuki Strategic Offensive operation seems to have already achieved one of its Phase 1 objectives. I expected Q-Ball to fight here hard, given his activity here during November:



I see some Romanian Mountain Divisions here, and there's some Waffen SS as well. Here I don't precisely have the strongest of my armies, but I can build this up quite quickly and keep the pressure.

The Rostov – Voroshilovgrad – Stalino Strategic Offensive operation has started quite well. The flanking attacks we envisioned have worked really well



Southern Front has finally got some revenge from the suffering inflicted by the German armies in the Donbass. I don't think Q-Ball will forgo his flanks. Though I wonder if he'll reinforce the flanks or just pull back over the Mius. I hope he does the latter.

51st Army starts pursuing the Axis divisions which seem being retreating towards the general direction of Perekop



while three Rifle Brigades disembark just west of Feodosiya. The two divisions blocking the isthmus to the east will have to make some choice soon. I just hope the German ArmeeKorps here isn't commanded by Sponek.

I have launched a total of 29 attacks, of which 26 have ended with Red Army soldiers victory. Loss exchange certainly has “improved”, it's been 33,000 to 12,547, something like 2.6 favoring the Axis. However I'm very happy about the operational success around Torzhok, and things are also going according to plan for the Tula – Yelets operation. We'll see how things develop next turn. This logistics phase blizzard effects are going to bite some Axis ass. This should soften up considerably German positions, especially those with level 2 or worse forts.

< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 10/20/2011 9:48:54 PM >


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Post #: 212
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/20/2011 10:16:05 PM   
asdicus

 

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This aar is a fascinating read - thanks so much for taking the time to write these long and detailed posts. I look forward to every turn it is just like a good book ! I wish you and your russian armies the best of luck in your offensive - you deserve a break after all the russian setbacks in the summer and autumn. Please if possible keep playing 'to the end' ie fighting it out in the rubble of Berlin in 1944/45. We really need some good aar's which keep going to the proper end of the war rather than just stopping in 1942/43.

(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 213
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/20/2011 10:27:59 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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From: Living in the fair city of Melbourne, Australia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus
This aar is a fascinating read - thanks so much for taking the time to write these long and detailed posts. I look forward to every turn it is just like a good book !


Thank you for the compliments asdicus That really motivates to keep up with this.

quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus
I wish you and your russian armies the best of luck in your offensive - you deserve a break after all the russian setbacks in the summer and autumn. Please if possible keep playing 'to the end' ie fighting it out in the rubble of Berlin in 1944/45. We really need some good aar's which keep going to the proper end of the war rather than just stopping in 1942/43.


I don't plan to give up anytime soon . Q-Ball is a superb opponent. He's really forced me to look at every little detail in the game each turn, just to survive. And I can't agree more with you, we've got very few games going on until really late in the war (Idaho v. Scar, Tarhunnas v. Gids). Which is not strange either: this is a titanic struggle, not only against your opponent, but also against real life :)





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Post #: 214
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/20/2011 10:42:34 PM   
Richard III

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus

This aar is a fascinating read - thanks so much for taking the time to write these long and detailed posts. I look forward to every turn it is just like a good book ! I wish you and your russian armies the best of luck in your offensive - you deserve a break after all the russian setbacks in the summer and autumn. Please if possible keep playing 'to the end' ie fighting it out in the rubble of Berlin in 1944/45. We really need some good aar's which keep going to the proper end of the war rather than just stopping in 1942/43.



I second your comments. I`ve actually printed out the AAR to date ( color !) since it`s among the best, and a fine learning tool.

(in reply to asdicus)
Post #: 215
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/20/2011 11:05:11 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


Posts: 3055
Joined: 11/26/2009
From: Living in the fair city of Melbourne, Australia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Richard III


quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus

This aar is a fascinating read - thanks so much for taking the time to write these long and detailed posts. I look forward to every turn it is just like a good book ! I wish you and your russian armies the best of luck in your offensive - you deserve a break after all the russian setbacks in the summer and autumn. Please if possible keep playing 'to the end' ie fighting it out in the rubble of Berlin in 1944/45. We really need some good aar's which keep going to the proper end of the war rather than just stopping in 1942/43.



I second your comments. I`ve actually printed out the AAR to date ( color !) since it`s among the best, and a fine learning tool.


Rich, I think you're one of the very few people who have used the "Printable Version" button since 2005

Thanks for reading, really.


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Post #: 216
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/21/2011 3:16:51 AM   
Baelfiin

 

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Very instructive BG, I appreciate all the hard work you are putting into this.

I think the germans need to back up in december and not get too tied down into trying to stop the russians.

From your screens it looks like you will be able to chew on a lot of units.

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(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 217
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/21/2011 11:14:01 AM   
Bletchley_Geek


Posts: 3055
Joined: 11/26/2009
From: Living in the fair city of Melbourne, Australia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Baelfiin
Very instructive BG, I appreciate all the hard work you are putting into this.


Thank you Baelfiin :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Baelfiin
I think the germans need to back up in december and not get too tied down into trying to stop the russians.

From your screens it looks like you will be able to chew on a lot of units.


Playing the Axis during blizzard becomes a couple orders of magnitude harder because of the trade-offs inherent to the decisions the Axis player has to make.

The Axis has usually to choose between retreating, holding fast and counterattacking. The factors that influence these decisions, which I see - would love to hear opinions on this, by the way - are the following:


  • One doesn't want the Red Army to achieve its operational goals - if they have those, of course - for free.
  • Retreating makes sense if you have somewhere to retreat to (Q-Ball has made what I think is a good work ensuring this). While retreating in the open reduces the ability of the Red Army to engage the Axis forces, it exposes you to climate, the big killer. The sooner or later climate attrition will slow your units down and fall prey to Red Army retribution.
  • The best way to contest a flanking maneuver is to reinforce the center and counterattack the flanks, trying to defeat the flanking forces decisively. This is very risky because of the Blizzard attack penalties.


Getting the decisions "right" in all three aspects all the time I think it's simply not possible (unless we're talking about a exceptionally gifted player). The Axis player that does best in the Blizzard is the one that makes the least number of "bad" decisions.

About the prospects of chewing much of the Axis army... well, it will depend on what decisions Q-Ball makes. I can force his hand in some places, but not in general. He seems to me a very solid player, mostly because seems to be able to appraise situations honestly, rather than appealing to wishful thinking. That makes him a fearsome opponent.

Regarding the Soviets. I think you need a plan and stick to it until you see it is not feasible. The goal of the blizzard is to maximize Axis losses to neutralize part of the advantage it has achieved during the Summer and Autumn. Before the 1.04 and 1.05 changes the most effective way to deliver this was to conduct attritional, static operations. Just throw men into the fiery furnace until it clogs and doesn't burn any more.

I think this is not sustainable now. More "finesse" is needed, in the lines of what James commented a few posts before: Mass, Momentum, Maneuver. Hence the pattern I think one can sees on this first blizzard turn: pin the center, apply the 3 M's on the flanks.

I expect sooner or later Q-Ball to make a bad decision.

If he doesn't... well, these bulges do really look nice on the map, right?

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Post #: 218
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/21/2011 12:15:02 PM   
janh

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
Should I cry now “this is not fair, he's not waiting for me to pound him”? Or “the game doesn't allow me enough strategic options”?


Better not... let it be ironic, otherwise we might see some real high-command feature with orders like holding the Kiev pocket or futile counterattacks for the Soviets, or ones that order the Germans to send off two Panzergroups from AGC in the midst of the rush to Moscow towards Kiev, or force holding every hex in blizzard and require a suicidal drive on Stalingrad and Baku... Imagine how much more the Germans would be screwed if Hitlers and Stalins orders would be present and enforced, especially since the latter turned more and more hands-off while the former messed around with OKW business more the worse the situation got...

Anyway, back to your great AAR. It seems you make very good progress, surprisingly good progress I find given the number of attacks that succeeded. One probably needs to wait until your blizzard is over, but one question I surely will have for you by that time is whether you think that the 2:1 is still needed even for this period, or whether the other changes, notably those to the fort rules, might have rendered it obsolete?

Will you try to go for some clear breakthrus that may allow you to rush cavalry or tank divisions thru the holes and attempt some sizable pocketing? Or do you plan to simply push slowly and steadily, not risking any of your formations to be cut-off themselves? What is your overall goal for this winter period? Pushing the Germans back into positions that would be less advantageous for launching their next summer offensive? Or attrition?

(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 219
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/21/2011 12:28:35 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
Should I cry now “this is not fair, he's not waiting for me to pound him”? Or “the game doesn't allow me enough strategic options”?


Better not... let it be ironic, otherwise we might see some real high-command feature with orders like holding the Kiev pocket or futile counterattacks for the Soviets, or ones that order the Germans to send off two Panzergroups from AGC in the midst of the rush to Moscow towards Kiev, or force holding every hex in blizzard and require a suicidal drive on Stalingrad and Baku... Imagine how much more the Germans would be screwed if Hitlers and Stalins orders would be present and enforced, especially since the latter turned more and more hands-off while the former messed around with OKW business more the worse the situation got...


Precisely that was the point of the irony (I put the statements between quotes). You've said it very well janh.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
Anyway, back to your great AAR. It seems you make very good progress, surprisingly good progress I find given the number of attacks that succeeded. One probably needs to wait until your blizzard is over, but one question I surely will have for you by that time is whether you think that the 2:1 is still needed even for this period, or whether the other changes, notably those to the fort rules, might have rendered it obsolete?


Yes, first blizzard turns tend to be very flashy, but the flash fades away quite quickly. Paraphrasing sillyflower, the damage you do is mostly psychological (which can entail actual damage as the Axis player starts making unsound decisions).

I think it's needed... but not for the Russians, but for the Germans. The one single criterion that I think matters considering when evaluating an operation with current rules is how much is it costing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
Will you try to go for some clear breakthrus that may allow you to rush cavalry or tank divisions thru the holes and attempt some sizable pocketing? Or do you plan to simply push slowly and steadily, not risking any of your formations to be cut-off themselves? What is your overall goal for this winter period? Pushing the Germans back into positions that would be less advantageous for launching their next summer offensive? Or attrition?


On Turn 23 I laid out the overall planning for December and January. Beyond that I think it's pointless, it depends too much on what actually happens in December and January. I'll do a bit of the two things. The "pushing & shoving" game is for pinning big German concentrations and strongpoints. The breakthroughs are for the flanks. However, I wouldn't qualify as a breakthrough anything the Red Army can achieve during blizzard, since it really doesn't have anything to exploit them. Let's say they're "flashes in the pan".

The main goal is an operational one rather than strategic: to stretch the German line so it becomes really difficult for him to mass infantry anywhere without significantly weakening any other sector (so I can menace with an offensive). The idea is to force him to conduct offensive operations in 1942 without substantial infantry support.

Attrition is really the work of winter. What I'm trying to do is to dislocate his positions, so he's forced to expose - even for a limited time - his units to the elements. This weakens units and allows me to attack more effectively. But it's not a goal in itself. This is a conflict fought on the operational level - clearly defined goals, based on maneuver - rather than an asymmetrical conflict such as the Vietnam War where it was all about Superior Firepower and Search & Destroy operations.

The latter doesn't make sense and can't be done. Interestingly, the best (not really fully convinced about this) the Germans can do in 1942 is more like the latter.

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Post #: 220
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/21/2011 4:42:43 PM   
JAMiAM

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
If he doesn't... well, these bulges do really look nice on the map, right?

To paraphrase someone's signature line, real men go to war with real bulges...in their lines...

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Post #: 221
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/21/2011 4:56:22 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
If he doesn't... well, these bulges do really look nice on the map, right?

To paraphrase someone's signature line, real men go to war with real bulges...in their lines...


Now that you mention it... I've got a wart on my right hand which doesn't want to go away

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Post #: 222
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/21/2011 11:45:47 PM   
Pelton

 

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Nice AAR. Only 75,000 new troops?

I know you screwed up with Moscow (1/2)

How many arm pts did you lose?

Again very nice AAR sorry I have not taken the time to read it in the past. I have learnt a few things alrdy.

Good game you two have going, very even.

Pelton

(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 223
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 12:07:12 AM   
Bletchley_Geek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Nice AAR. Only 75,000 new troops?


More or less. It fluctuates depending on how many ARM points are produced by turn (this depends on the chances due to damage and supply/resource shortages).

By turn, the data series is:

Turn 15: 91,000 (this turn I exhausted ARM pool)
Turn 16: 60,000
Turn 17: 60,000
Turn 18: 59,000
Turn 19: 69,000
Turn 20: 68,000
Turn 21: 65,000
Turn 22: 98,000
Turn 23: 98,000
Turn 24: 84,000
Turn 25: 68,000
Turn 26: 70,000

Note this are the numbers for manpower used into building new ground elements (or replacing losses in damaged ground elements in the pool). I get it by comparing the Manpower input and the change in the Manpower pool.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
I know you screwed up with Moscow (1/2)


That did me a lot of damage, especially to plane production. I lost two full IL-2 plants. And those are winner planes.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
How many arm pts did you lose?


In general it's been like this:

Railcap -81 (-27.5%)
Manpower -1259 (-33.45%)
Vehicle -32 (-23%)
HI -81 (-34%)
Resources -45 (-23%)
Armaments -54 (-15%)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Again very nice AAR sorry I have not taken the time to read it in the past. I have learnt a few things alrdy.


Thank you for reading Pelton.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Good game you two have going, very even.


Yes, I think the two of us are enjoying it, though now Q-Ball is the one feeling some pain.

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Post #: 224
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 12:48:50 AM   
Pelton

 

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54 basicly historical.
Manpower is more because of Moscow.
HVY and Resourse dont mean much.

Troop numbers are much lower then pre 1.05 pre turn.

I really need to get out more and read Red AAR's.

Thanks, information is good even when it doesn't support ones position.

Good luck during blizzard.

Pelton

(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 225
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 1:30:26 AM   
Bletchley_Geek


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Turn 26 – 11 December 1941

Second blizzard turn. Q-Ball has done two counterattacks, concentrating overwhelming force, on some the forces I used to “exploit” the “breakthroughs” I achieved last turn (notice the double quotes). Checking the changes in the losses between turns Q-Ball has lost to blizzard approximately 46,000 casualties so far. Which is really low.

Operational Situation Report

On the far north, the left flank of 18. Armee is running west as if chased by the devil himself



Note how the 18. Armee right flank is holding the line just east of Vishny. Time for the 41st and 22nd Armies here to focus on one concrete target: to pin these forces. Reviewing the state of the units here I came across the sorry 27th Army's 183rd Rifle Division:



Note the morale of this division and the difference of the Supply/Need numbers. When I say that 1.05 changes the game in a fundamental way, I'm not joking. This division was routed on the first Snow turn, but still, I'm impressed and not in a good way.

Q-Ball withdrew his PanzerDivisions from Torzhok. I was obviously wrong estimating the MP's for the division in Torzhok



with this initial objective achieved, it's time to move quickly and breach those forts to the west before he can build them up (they're ranging from 30 to 50%). Q-Ball is also retreating just in front of Moscow



He's left the paras to hold me up while the rest of his forces retreat to what I suspect is his secondary fort line. I say “suspect” because I'm working from memory basically and because VVS recon pilots seem to have become extremely scarce all of a sudden. For whatever reason I can't fly more than 10 or 12 recon flights across the whole front. Now the RKKA feels like a blind man moving on the blizzard.

While he's ceded some terrain northeast of Yelets – I guess the Russian CV there was intimidating – he's mostly holding fast as well in the Tula – Yelets area



He's not weakening his deployment around Tula. I really need to get 2nd Shock Army into action quickly, otherwise things might get a bit rotten for the northern part of the Tula – Yelets operation.

It didn't make much sense to me that Q-Ball held to the Tikhnaya Sosna, and he shared my opinion as well. He's retreated in the general direction of Valyuki, which sort of speeds up the proceedings for the Rossoh – Valyuki operation



North of Voroshilovgrad the newly formed 57th Army is about to arrive to his position in the line and join the offensive operations in the area. After last turn attacks on the flanks of the German forces in the Donbass, Q-Ball has decided to not take any chances and retreat to the west:



Note how one of the Gebirgsjäger divisions has shifted to the north, to block the path of my forces around Voroshilovgrad. Damn.

The only mistake that Q-Ball has made this turn has been this one in the Crimea. Seems that Sponek wasn't in charge this time



and when I say mistake I mean “as in forgotting to move those two divisions”. I offered him a redo but he declined. The funny part in this whole business is that I was struggling to get into position an Airborne Brigade to achieve the same result: two German divisions isolated.

The rest of the Axis forces in the Peninsula are racing towards the forts at Perekop. Game over if so?

Logistics & Organization

The flow of new ground elements remains steady: 80,000 guys have been formed into 14,713 ground elements. I checked the numbers and I see that I've built 4,793 14.5mm ATR squads and 1,384 SMG squads. Looking for a reason for this on the Commander's Report I see that all Tank Brigades were set to Refit. Looks to me that I forgot to do something before finishing last turn as well...

Operations

Very heavy fighting this turn. I really tried to push hard my troops this turn, so perhaps next turn I will have to take it easier. I insisted in attacking certain hexes I shouldn't perhaps. I did 37 attacks of which 25 were successful, exactly the same as last turn. Exchange loss ratio has been 3.5:1, 20,000 Axis battle permanent losses vs about 75,000 (about 35,000 KIA) Soviet battle permanent losses. Barely sustainable and a lesson to keep in mind regarding “trying my luck”. Let's review how things have ended after my moves and assaults.

The Torzhok – Rzhev operation has made progress, but it's been very expensive. Q-Ball secondary defense line has been breached at several places



but in the process 11th , 8th and 24th Armies have suffered very high losses. Several divisions are now unready. An interesting opportunity to separate German forces here from those fighting in front of Moscow has appeared near Staritsa (area marked with an oval). 54th Army will try to capitalize that, though there's a tough 3=18 German infantry division blocking movement.

On Moscow I've struggled to rotate depleted divisions while keeping the pressure and moving west. Have you ever tried to solve this puzzle?



Well, attacking with the Soviets really gets like it in cramped quarters



WitE stacking rules were one of the first (and most) criticized aspect of the game. Then, and now, I think it was a very clever way to model what other games model with traffic jams when too many units move across a certain hex. You really need to think what you move, and where. It's easy to waste a substantial number of MP's if units are tossed around carelessly.

Going back to the topic, I'm surprised that Q-Ball isn't fighting harder for these positions. I guess his real line lies at some point between Mozhaysk and Vyazma. This abysmal performance of VVS recon is really dangerous. Best news has been the victory on the south edge of the picture. That opens up the route towards Kaluga.

The main show has achieved one of its objectives, Yelets. Which was defended by 12th PanzerDivision – the guys who raided Moscow:



falling to a combined arms hasty attack. These guys must be really green. This almost feels like a German summer attack. 99th Tank Brigade commander had Lenin's mummy – which had been vandalized and now is properly restored – with him in his tank. As the Spanish El Cid, Lenin wins battle even after dead!



Now I have 2nd and 1st Shock Armies operating on Tula flanks. The southern flank is about to be breached, the northern one needs some more work. Let's see what does Q-Ball do. The PzDivs in Tula are needed in the flank, so perhaps I'll be forcing his hand and having him to abandon the city and have those panzertruppen to spend a really miserable time in the snow facing one of the strongest Soviet Armies in the field.

The Rossoh – Valyuki has mostly consisted in chasing the Axis forces here punctuated by some attacks. Particularly has been the repulse of one of my Cavalry Corps by that Romanian Mountain Brigade



just west of Ostrozhsk. To the south, along the Starobelsk – Svetevo Axis, the newly arrived 57th Army has made a magnificient entry, supported by some units of Southern Front 16th Army:



that is turning northwest to steer away from the Gebirgsjäger division. Actually, Southern Front has now to stretch out a bit in the middle, and try to pin the forces directly in front of Stalino. Meanwhile 16th in the north and 29th in the south will continue the flanking maneuver. I think I've already made my mind about where to commit 3rd and 4th Shock Armies.

In the Crimea we got our very first Operation Kolt'so of the war, centered on the ancient city of Feodosiya



Soft factors show supply status, which is in a very worrying green-orange hue already, and after minimal combat. I'm really wanting to hit those units running away. I've attached two RR brigades to 51st Army – the one running from Sevastopol towards Perekop. I don't know if ports work as supply network source nodes, so I can repair rail from the port itself (I think not, but it doesn't hurt to try).

Overall it's been a turn which has left me mixed emotions. On the one hand, I think that the operations are being successful. On the other hand, I got careless and wasted quite a few good men and equipment. Being things so tight as they're, I shouldn't be throwing away my forces so liberally.



< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 10/22/2011 1:36:52 AM >


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Post #: 226
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 2:38:33 AM   
Bletchley_Geek


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The influence of the 1:1 rule

Now answering janh's question: how much of the Soviet success is due to the 1:1 rule? Here you have the data for this Turn



So 6 victories out of 25 (about a 25%). Is that significative? Quantitatively it is, but qualitatively it's a much harder question to answer. Looking at the battle themselves, all but one, happened out of the scope of the operations I planned in Turn 23.

So I'd say, maybe yes, maybe not. Also apparent on this data is the effect of Blizzard on the Germans while in combat. It's BAD. Even in the failures (data not shown), most Axis units seem to get their initial CV halved right away (blizzard penalties hitting). Also interesting to note is that Initial CV reductions for the Soviets correlate quite well with actual losses. However, this is not true for the Germans. They ALWAYS get less losses compared with the reduction in CV (due to fire & maneuver being simulated during Tactical Combat). Unless something really lewd happens to the Germans such as being pounded by a few Rocket Regiments - see the battle at Hex 112,66, 3 Soviet divisions and 8 SU's against one single German division.

< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 10/22/2011 2:41:23 AM >


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Post #: 227
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 11:56:55 AM   
janh

 

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Hmmh, interesting. This kind of information could be useful for the testers and devs, but you are probably right -- a single statistic event, i.e. a single turn of a single AAR can always be an exception. My feel would be bumping up the Soviet base moral a tid bid, and saying bye to the 2:1 rule -- yet only if this statistic remained for the entire winter phase so good.  I understand its value as an additional parameter to affect a tipping point for the initiative, and tool to up the Soviet offensive value in the early months, but it seems unnatural like the static part of the igougo, or some of the weaker panzer raids. Even out of a total of 37 attacks only 19 were successful, instead of 25, the Soviets appear to do quite well given how abysmal they are compared to what they will look like in 43 or 44. Yet the blizzard has still quite a few turns, and your fighting power might dwindle, requiring 2:1 to keep up offensive spirit for a few more turns...

Yip, your air recon, or rather your present lack thereof, may get you in trouble.  Seems like blizzard isn't exactly the weather condition for large-scale, well-controlled and coordinated offensives and an excellent overview of the battlefield.  More like four wrestlers going after at each other in the dark, soon not knowing which direction the home corner is, or where the supporting partner is and what he is doing... just tossing big strategy out of the window and fighting it out brute force. Suppose that's not so different from what the winter 41 must have looked like to both sides at the front.


< Message edited by janh -- 10/22/2011 12:00:05 PM >

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Post #: 228
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 4:38:25 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

Hmmh, interesting. This kind of information could be useful for the testers and devs, but you are probably right -- a single statistic event, i.e. a single turn of a single AAR can always be an exception. My feel would be bumping up the Soviet base moral a tid bid, and saying bye to the 2:1 rule -- yet only if this statistic remained for the entire winter phase so good.  I understand its value as an additional parameter to affect a tipping point for the initiative, and tool to up the Soviet offensive value in the early months, but it seems unnatural like the static part of the igougo, or some of the weaker panzer raids. Even out of a total of 37 attacks only 19 were successful, instead of 25, the Soviets appear to do quite well given how abysmal they are compared to what they will look like in 43 or 44. Yet the blizzard has still quite a few turns, and your fighting power might dwindle, requiring 2:1 to keep up offensive spirit for a few more turns...


I hope this results interesting for players as well. The tactical combat system is little understood and pinning it down in tables like this makes easier to discuss it (I think).

I don't know if I can compromise myself to track this every turn, turns are taking me long enough already. But would be a good thing, once blizzard is gone and I have more time, to get more data on this. Note that I try to adjust initial odds as best as I can, mediated by FOW (CV values of enemy units with low DL can be extremely misleading).

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Post #: 229
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 6:15:04 PM   
PeeDeeAitch


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I would not underestimate the psychology of the game on the player attacking too. Just as the blizzard can unnerve the Germans (and make him, as you said BG, do foolish things), knowing the 1:1-2:1 rule can improve the psyche of the Soviets and they will attack (even if a majority of the attacks don't need this). Something to think about - the mindset of the player making the turn can have huge results.

In the past I wrote about 'getting the skeer (scare)' on one's opponent, and it is factors such as this that allows it to happen.

Good job, BG.

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Post #: 230
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/22/2011 6:33:26 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch
I would not underestimate the psychology of the game on the player attacking too. Just as the blizzard can unnerve the Germans (and make him, as you said BG, do foolish things), knowing the 1:1-2:1 rule can improve the psyche of the Soviets and they will attack (even if a majority of the attacks don't need this). Something to think about - the mindset of the player making the turn can have huge results.

In the past I wrote about 'getting the skeer (scare)' on one's opponent, and it is factors such as this that allows it to happen.


We have had an example of this "skeer" this turn. I was skeer'd that Q-Ball was moving out of my reach too soon. So I pressed harder and didn't assess initial odds as realistically as I usually do. The "I'm going to be lucky" button only works for Google.

quote:

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch
Good job, BG.


Thank you PDH :)


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Post #: 231
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/23/2011 11:14:32 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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Turn 27 – 18 December 1941

One more turn in the Blizzard drama. Q-Ball has counterattacked in various spots with mixed success: 5 attacks, 2 held and 3 routs. He's stung me though, one of the routs was a Cavalry Corps which was very important for my plans in the south. Let's review the situation.

Operational Situation Report

18th Armee is holding east of Vishny:



the Axis can't really give away these positions without risking the flank of the forces fighting along the Torzhok – Rzhev axis. I've brought here three stout Rifle Divisions to apply some pressure and make him feel his position is untenable (which isn't, actually I think it's quite solid).

Q-Ball saw the rather fishy situation that was arising around Staritsa and has deployed there a PanzerDivision



and counterattacked the Tank Brigade which was “exploiting”. At least I'm forcing him to attack me, and the weak Tank Brigades are too tempting a target for such an offensively minded player as Q-Ball.

Northwestern Front forces are quite ragged right now. Attacks are limited by the number of units unready – about one third of the force – and the intervening space between his forces and mine. A pattern in Q-Ball tactics has emerged. Note the two divisions he's left to prevent me establishing contact with his HKL. This poses a significant challenge: I have to balance out the number of units involved in dislodging those forces with the need of moving forward with the most force. If I commit too little to the attack I'm exposed to failure – more wasted MP's – and high losses.

Not a step back in front of Moscow, looks to me that Q-Ball feels his position to be securely anchored on the SS Totenkopf division



which is quite strong, indeed. Time to put the hurt on these elite guys. I'll be stacking Arty and good leaders here.

Very good news for the Tula – Yelets operation. Q-Ball has decided to abandon Tula after having his positions flanked by the advance of 1st and 2nd Shock Armies



I don't if by accident or purpose, he's falling back towards the next objective of 2nd Shock Army, the rail hub at Gorbachevo. I need to break the back of his forces on the Yelets – Gorbachevo sector let's see if the Bryansk Front and Eremenko's 31st Army have enough “oomph” for that.

As expected, the developments to the north have made Q-Ball to consider his position on the Don river to be untenable:



I need to think this better, since I don't want to distract too much from my original operations, but pushing towards Krastornoe along the rail line and Stary Oskol – no rail line here – are certainly very interesting. A push all the way to Kursk or Kharkov is an unreal proposition, unless things to the north further deteriorate.

What seemed a secondary operation – the Rossoh – Valyuki one – which was deemed to be a hard slog forward is taking momentum:



Pushing towards the Oskol, and the cities of Stary Oskol and Novy Oskol seems as the best way, although that axis is a logistic black hole. On the other hand, the best option in the south is to push towards Nizhvaya Duvanka – Dvuerachovo. Valyuki is really important, it sits on the most important rail lines in the area.

The battle lines for January are taking form in the south. Q-Ball really wants to keep me away from his defenses on the Mius. One of the Gebirgsjäger divisions has involved itself quite heavily in pushing back my vanguard in the area of Mateev Kurgan



A setback indeed. But the more I force Q-Ball to counterattack, the better.

The situation in the Crimea is becoming quite clear



major battles will be fought on the Perekop isthmus during January, as far as the supply situation allows. Soft factors shown are Supply status. 51st Army (advancing north from Sevastopol) situation is not that bad yet, due to the stores in the HQ (which shows now orange supply status). I need to pump supplies here, and the only option seems to be air supply (which will be very limited). At least the transport aviation I brought here will do something after all.

Logistics & Organization

This turn arrive 3rd and 4th Shock Armies. There's still some time to change the decision, but these armies will be committed on the Stalino front, waiting for the Transcaucasus Front to become unfrozen (and with excellent morale and experience units, by the way).

My replacement system is getting swamped by the Rifle formations – either rebuilt ones or new brigades. The same priorization I've been doing on Tank Brigades is necessary here. In the last four turns a total of 81 new Rifle formations have arrived (that's a 20% of the overall RKKA rifle formations in the OOB). So you can compare, between turns 20 and 23 I received just 42.

Regarding the influx of new men into the Red Army, this turn I got 79,000 fresh recruits.

Operations

This turn I've made the same number of attacks as in Turn 27, and got about the same level of success: 24 out of 29. The casualty ratio, excluding the two divisions at Feodosiya, is worsening and I don't like it at all: 15,000 Axis casualties vs. 60,000 Soviet casualties, a 4:1 in favor of the Axis. Those ghosts haunting my place aren't going to vanish, if anything, they're becoming legion :(

While the attrition battle rages at the strategic level, at the operational level I'm quite happy. This turn I'm forcing Q-Ball hand in the north in a nice way:



15th Infantry Division landsers are getting a free ride on the excellent Soviet railroads to the lands beyond the Urals if Q-Ball doesn't retreat them. His line is broken, though in an actually awkward place.

I think I see the German defenses in front of Moscow faltering, though I'm seeing a second line of level 3 forts behind the one I breached last turn



or perhaps it's not faltering and I'm just seeing what I want to see. German CV's here are indeed going down pretty fast in this area... I'd like to have these guys to keep their heads down before January arrives and some of the blizzard penalties are lifted.

The Tula – Yelets operation has achieved its immediate targets and it's not losing steam any time soon. Both Shock Armies are honoring its title and the shock waves create ripples on German lines



Rather than going after the PzDiv standing in the middle of the Red Tide I've decided to ignore it and keep 1st Shock Army eyes on the prize: Gorbachevo and beyond. Eremenko's 31st Army is indeed losing a bit its steam, but the Germans in front of them are pretty ragged already. I wouldn't be surprised that Q-Ball pulls back hard towards Orel. They can run all they want to, but sooner or later, the pain train is going to arrive at the station, guys.

The Rossoh – Valyuki operation is likely to finish before the New Year, 5th Army is at the gates of the town, and prepared to knock hard on its doors



Not much going on here, besides the roughing up of the Romanians to the north of Valyuki and inviting that Das Reich people to attack my troops.

And on the Stalino Front, not much to report either



Southern Front is hugging the German units here again. Rocky just needs to take another round of pounding before he gets the striking power. And to the southwest, once the Feodosiya affair has been resolved, the nice little walk up to the Perekop isthmus continue.



With luck I will be able to strike there by mid January, too late to achieve anything significant.

More Combat Analysis

Janh and PDH feedback have encouraged me to keep collecting the data on the combats (and to add the data from Turn 25, as well).

I've posted the statistics on this link, since taking screenshots isn't really functional. In general, janh comments were spot on: victories due to the 1:1 rule rise as the Red Army weakens, or I'm forced to try my luck when exploiting a narrow breakthrough.

What I wonder is the following: if there was no 1:1 rule, there wouldn't be Axis bonus to defensive fire either. What does this means in terms of final modified CV? A more severe reduction for the Axis and a milder reduction for the Soviets? Tactical combat has a lot of variance built into it. But I think it's reasonable to apply a constant multiplier to Axis and Soviet final modified CV's.

One thing I've pondering for long is that perhaps the 1:1 rule, besides not being necessary, was actually harmful for the Soviets (increased losses, victories that become defeats, etc.). Somebody (Helpless?) can give a hint on what multipliers should I look into?

< Message edited by Bletchley_Geek -- 10/23/2011 11:17:07 PM >


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Post #: 232
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/23/2011 11:48:36 PM   
sillyflower


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek


We have had an example of this "skeer" this turn. I was skeer'd that Q-Ball was moving out of my reach too soon. So I pressed harder and didn't assess initial odds as realistically as I usually do. The "I'm going to be lucky" button only works for Google.



Loks like you need to do fewer real attacks and more meta ones.

Good AAR.

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Post #: 233
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/24/2011 12:31:20 AM   
Pelton

 

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How many Germans did General Winter kill for you?

Also General winter is lower his moral 16 pt? 1 pt a turn right?

< Message edited by Pelton -- 10/24/2011 12:32:51 AM >

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Post #: 234
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/24/2011 9:28:02 AM   
Bletchley_Geek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek


We have had an example of this "skeer" this turn. I was skeer'd that Q-Ball was moving out of my reach too soon. So I pressed harder and didn't assess initial odds as realistically as I usually do. The "I'm going to be lucky" button only works for Google.



Loks like you need to do fewer real attacks and more meta ones.

Good AAR.


I'm starting to feel the same, to be honest.

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Post #: 235
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/24/2011 9:28:29 AM   
Bletchley_Geek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

How many Germans did General Winter kill for you?

Also General winter is lower his moral 16 pt? 1 pt a turn right?


Not many, I've yet to check the numbers, but I'd say less than 100,000.

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Post #: 236
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/29/2011 2:02:40 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


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Turn 28 – 25 December 1941

Happy Xmas everyone! :) Q-Ball is retreating in the wake of the assaults I made last turn on the Torzhok – Rzhev and Tula – Orel axis. However, the overall situation is just plain bad. Many units need rest & refit, and some parts of the front need some serious reorganization. He's still counterattacking where he doesn't see himself risking too much.

Operational Situation Report

He's pulling back and making his line more efficient:



while I see him steady on the Torzhok – Rzhev direction – CV's haven't dropped to a joke there even with the very low forts there – in the sector of Firovo I see an opportunity for unhinging the 18 and 16. Armees. In this screenshot also becomes apparent how much does VVS recon suck. I don't think he's deliberately left a gap in his line.

Another operational retreat is executed in front of Moscow



He's got quite an strongpoint in the area marked. The idea is to push for Kaluga flanking that. Let's see if the units here are up to the task. One major hurdle is the Totenkopf SS Division. That will be a very tough nut to crack. Note how I'm detaching Rifle Brigades from frontline armies and deploying them to prepare the battle lines for 1942. They have crap Construction Value unless concentrated, but leaving the units deployed like that helps me to remember what I need to fortify.

Same story in the Tula – Yelets sector of the front



Now 1st Shock Army is facing two PanzerDivisions. I think this time I'll take the gauntlet: redeploying 1st Shock Army will delay me too much I think. And to the south the German position looks to be in shambles. 2nd Shock Army seems to have tough opposition in its front as well. Seems to me that Q-Ball has deduced which were my axis of advance, all he needed was to just follow the rail lines and join the dots :). The January battle for reaching the Kaluga – Orel line is going to be a pitched one, and probably decide whether my Blizzard operations have been successful or not.

Further south I won't show more screenshots. Q-Ball wants to make a stand for Stary Oskol and in the Stalino front I'm completely blocked until I commit there the 3rd and 4th Shock Armies.

Logistics & Organization

Something interesting happened this turn with replacements, somehow I got 150,000 guys into the ranks. This increase is partly explained away by the number of Support Squads that got built: about 3,000. I hadn't produced one single support squad since Turn 22.

Force levels are acceptable, the strike forces have good TOE's and the rest are more or less equally ragged. I see quite a few units having supply problems because of operating well beyond my railheads, but they will have to make do with whatever they can glean out of the frozen Russian countryside.

Operations

The tempo of the offensives has gone substantially down. This is in part because I needed to redeploy my forces, and very little MP's were left after that, as well as a marked reduction in combat power for some units. So this turn I try accumulate some supply and keep fatigue levels in check. Hence, very few attacks are launched this turn, 16 attacks, of which 14 were successful. Loss ratio has been clearly in my favour: this turn I got 1:1. However, the volume of German losses is small, we're talking about 20,000 casualties for each side.

Since operations had to be limited, I wanted them to have some shock effect on Axis forces. I think there have been only three events worth reporting. I struck the weak German divisions in the area of Firovo



Northwestern Front troops here are exhausted, and I don't think they'll be able to resume operations for two weeks at least. Volkhov Front will take over the responsability of applying pressure on the joint of 18. and 16. Armee lines.

While 2nd Shock Army gets into position, I push hard with the 1st Shock Army in the direction of Gorbachevo



defeating the PzDivs Q-Ball had brought here to keep me in check, resulting in substantial AFV losses



let's see what does Q-Ball next turn. He might well end up opening the door to Orel for me.

Even with limited MP's I can put some German units in trouble in the south:



I'm trying to flank the Gebirgsjäger division Q-Ball put here to stop me, with some success. Let's see if he counterattacks. Things here can get very hot as soons as I deploy one of the Shock Armies I'm forming up behind the Donets.

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(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 237
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/29/2011 2:04:57 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


Posts: 3055
Joined: 11/26/2009
From: Living in the fair city of Melbourne, Australia
Status: online
Turn 29 – 1 January 1942

Happy new year to everyone! :) We leave behind the horrible year 1941 and enter into 1942 with a fresh look on things. Or perhaps not. Q-Ball has retreated in the north, inviting me to push all the way to Rzhev. On the Tula-Yelets and Stalino fronts he's reinforced and doesn't look to me as wanting to retreat any time soon.

Operational Situation Report

In the north he's basically abandoning a lot of useless forests



but in the process he's also leaving Rzhev on striking range. With this retreat, Volkhov Front strength will be dilluted, but I'm not really caring much about the Finns right now. NW and Kalinin Fronts will concentrate on Rzhev, which is was one of my operational goals.

The other sector of the front where he's retreating is east of Kharkov



it would certainly be sweet to strike towards Kharkov but this area is a complete Logistics nightmare, with my railhead at Starobelsk. I need to direct a few RR brigades to the army commands here.

Logistics & Organization

With 1942 the new manpower multiplier becomes in effect, and the manpower production is reduced from about 120,000 to 96,000 men per turn. That's almost a 30% reduction. A few Armaments and Heavy Industry factories didn't get enough supplies to produce at full efficiency, as well (7 ARM lacked supplies and 2 HI lacked resources). However, Armaments production has peaked at 79,500 points.

On the bright side, another 120,000 guys have entered the ranks.

Operations

My forces are really losing their edge, and with the Axis units recovering from blizzard effects, things become really difficult. This turn I have achieved a couple local successes, which have been compensated by a couple sharp defeats. I've managed to get good odds for launching 14 attacks, of whose only 10 have been successful.

Let's review these defeats, since they tell a lot about the state of matters. 40th Army has been so far quite successful pushing in the direction of Kaluga, but this turn it has suffered a quite catastrophic defeat at the hands of German motorized units:



What seemed to be a quite feasible assignment – clobbering 251st Infantry Division – turned out to be quite impossible. Two German Motorized divisions were sitting on Kaluga in Reserve mode and came to the rescue of their kamerads. These reserves turned completely the tide in favor of the German defenders.

1st Shock Army has had a very good December, accomplishing all of its objectives with relative ease. But the fight for Gorbachevo isn't going to be nearly as easy. I sent it to attack the positions defended by 5th Panzer Division and 212nd Infantry Division just southeast of Gorbachevo



Seems that Konev has had one of his “brilliant” performances this turn. Those AFV losses really hurt.

I'm trying not to trash my forces at brick walls, but things don't really work out as one expects sometimes. Loss exchange ratio has been of 1:3 in favor of the Axis. While my permanent losses haven't been too big, as most of the casualties in the battles have been damaged rather than destroyed ground elements, it is becoming apparent to me that we're entering a whole new phase of Winter.

While the original plans for 3rd and 4th Shock Armies were to employ them offensively on the Voroshilovgrad – Stalino axis, I'm starting to think that might not to be a very good idea. I'm not only limited by logistics, especially between Voronezh and Voroshilovgrad, but also by Q-Ball managing quite well his operational retreat. Cancelling offensive operations is premature, but I don't really see them going into February.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Bletchley_Geek)
Post #: 238
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/29/2011 2:11:48 PM   
Pelton

 

Posts: 5720
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Well, I personally think it's a bit over the top that the Axis can get this far while taking out Leningrad and making historical advances in the south.

I've been fighting non stop in front of Moscow for almost 10 turns now. The entire summer, with no pause. Once he brought up his infantry to the landbridge more or less. I really doubt this was logistically possible in real life. And the Wehrmacht is at 3.2 million going into October, further solidifying my strong suspicion that manpower in this patch is grossly inflated for the Germans. It simply doesn't go down much, or at all. (Even the blizzard only has a temporary effect. By the end of February all the disableds recover, more or less, at least in my AI testing.)

I'm really not sure how you put a dent into this manpower.

Casualty ratios continue to be very high, 4-5:1. I'm not sure where people are getting this 2.6:1 business from. With these kinds of loss ratios, you hardly need to pocket: just pound the Soviet and wait for his stuff to lapse into unreadiness. (The average Soviet unit will not stand up to this kind of attrition very long before needing to be pulled out of the line. I'm spending a quite ridiculous amount of AP on reassignments thanks to this remorseless attrition.)







The 2.6 to 1 is from March 42 to end of war.

Also losses during 42 are much different then losses during 41. Moral of Russians is much higher over all and Germans moral is lower. -16 on all units just because of General winter.

So the old standard rule of 2.6 to 1 has not changed. I tried some attacks vs Kamil in our summer of 42 game and the results are the very same as before 1.05, 1.8ish to 1 generally. So the German will have to pocket units or not bother attacking and dig in.

1941 is an apple and 1942-45 is a orange.

As the devs have stated more then once the lose ratio is the same as before.

Pelton

< Message edited by Pelton -- 10/29/2011 2:21:07 PM >

(in reply to Flaviusx)
Post #: 239
RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek - 10/29/2011 3:03:57 PM   
Bletchley_Geek


Posts: 3055
Joined: 11/26/2009
From: Living in the fair city of Melbourne, Australia
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Also losses during 42 are much different then losses during 41. Moral of Russians is much higher over all and Germans moral is lower. -16 on all units just because of General winter.


Where do you get that -16 point reduction? I depends on supply shortage, and the amount of defeats units suffer. Besides that, motorized and elite units have bonuses that keep them above the National Morale. I don't think Q-Ball army quality will resent too sharply from these winter battles. I think I'll have a tough 1942 ahead

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Nullius in Verba since February 2013 - http://panthergames.com
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(in reply to Pelton)
Post #: 240
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