Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek

[BletchleyGeek]

Foreword

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I want to dedicate this AAR to the Eastern Front themed computer wargame I've played played the most ever, 15+ years and still kicking on my hard drive Only WiTE has been able to displace this little WEGO operational wargame from my heart, and that's quite a big deal for me.

Turn 1 - 22nd June 1941

Opening turn 1 of the 1941 Grand Campaign playing the Soviets is like having your mother-in-law to turn up along with one of those cherry liquor flavored chocolates box which make you feel sick. You carefully try to avoid her noticing your grimace as you eat as few of them as possible and then, while you try to not choke and throw up, say “Oh, they're really nice. Thank you very much”.

Operational situation report

Q-Ball opening moves are pretty much standard: Northwestern Front forces are thoroughly routed and 4. PzGruppe establishes a bridgehead over the Daugava, most of Western Front forces bagged west of Minsk, 3. PzGruppe and 2. PzGruppe are knocking on Minsk doors, half of Southwestern Front is trapped in two pockets, north around Kovel and south around Lvov, while 1. PzGruppe does a huge leap to the south and joins up with the Axis forces in Romania.

I don't see any ill-effect of 1.05 on Axis turn 1 operations: out of 152 battles, I got 34 routs, 78 retreats, 19 surrenders, 5 shatters and 6 helds. The increased Soviet morale hasn't made any difference at all: such a modest change can do little to overthrow the Axis onslaught. There's something that catches up my attention, though

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these air losses are perhaps the lowest I've got from a human opponent on turn 1. I don't know whether Q-Ball refrained of pushing too hard the Luftwaffe on the VVS airfields. I think that taking out most of the VVS on Turn 1 is an overrated move, very much like taking out all the battleships in Pearl Harbor. Very much like the elderly US Navy battleships in Hawaii don't really have a fighting chance against Japan Combined Fleet, VVS doesn't have either a fighting chance against the Luftwaffe.

Q-Ball has achieved a huge buffer to separate the beleaguered Red Army forces around Lvov from the the rest of the Southwestern Front

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six hexes at its widest, three hexes at its narrowest, the passageway opened by 1. PzGruppe and 2. PzGruppe's 46. PzKorps feels is an abysm for the slow moving Southwestern Front forces, ruling out a relief operation. I'll rather try to setup a screen covering those forces, while I muster all forces available to man the Stalin line fortifications.

Operations

Northwestern Front scattered remains will try to conduct a delaying action to keep AGN forces far from the Velikaya and Sinyaya rivers as long as possible, while I try to set up a defense along both rivers

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VVS recon has been very weak, but I feel NW Front troops only face one of 4. PzGruppe motorized corps, the 56th PanzerKorps. Western Front forces abandon Minsk – there's no point to stand there and die – and I deploy the survivors of the Bielorussia catastrophe forming up a screen to cover the Ulla and Berezina rivers, where I would like to make a stand

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Q-Ball took a PzKorps from 2. PzGruppe so German motorized forces aren't as daunting as they could be. The plan is to delay as much as possible the Wehrmacht crossing the Dnepr.

The plan for the very weakened Southwestern Front is to fall back towards Kiev while covering the Zhitomir – Kiev and Vinnitsa – Kiev axis

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16th Army won't go north in this game: it is direly needed to cover “The Gap”, the vast open terrain expanses just north and norteast of Proskurov. It's prime terrain for mechanized operations and is key to keep the cohesion of Southwestern Front line. If the Germans hit there hard Red Army forces in the Western Ukraine will be split into two groups, which will have a hard time supporting each other.

Southern Front forces start to retreat towards the Drut river, the Bessarabia is not worth fighting for it

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and I leave there a few forces to give the Rumanians something to entertain themselves with. While I do not wish to get decisively engaged here, I don't want the 11. Armee to have too an easy time to sprint forward along the Kishinev – Odessa axis, so I concentrate there the bulk of 9th Army forces. I'm also expecting Q-Ball to deliver a blow south of Vinnitsa, severing the link between Southern and Southwestern Fronts, so I have concentrated there the 2nd “Fail Whale” Mechanized Corps, to keep German spearheads honest. I'm devoting quite a few resources to man Odessa forts, I want it to become a thorn on AGS side. Two rifle divisions, supported by an HQ, placed on the city are more than a match for Romanians and would require 11. Armee to deviate resources to reduce the city.

[CarnageINC]

Good luck BG, it looks like Q-Ball went for the Lvov pocket option.  I had thought he didn't like the move?   Did Q make a good center pocket?  Any chance of a breakout anywhere in the north, it looks as if he locked up the Lvov pocket pretty good.  Good luck sir [;)]

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: CarnageINC
Good luck BG, it looks like Q-Ball went for the Lvov pocket option.  I had thought he didn't like the move?

Well, perhaps he was playing a maskirovka Because he went for that and got a very nice one.

ORIGINAL: CarnageINC
   Did Q make a good center pocket?  Any chance of a breakout anywhere in the north, it looks as if he locked up the Lvov pocket pretty good. 

Yes, very good pockets. He also got the infantry moving in the wake of the advancing PzGruppes, bypassing the center of mass of Western Front forces. Being the rails cut, and having the bulk of 3. and 2. PzGruppe armor in a blocking position between my forces around Minsk, guarantees that next turn several hundred thousand Soviet soldiers will march westward as prisoners.

In the south the participation of 46. PzKorps was of the essence to open a wide chasm... it felt a bit like going over this

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I think Indy's dad won't make it, too bad [:)]

ORIGINAL: CarnageINC
Good luck sir [;)]

Thank you, I'll need it.

[BletchleyGeek]

[center]Turn 2 – 26th June 1941[/center]

Second turn of the campaign, and it does indeed look very bad. The STAVKA second echelon just activated, and several hundred thousand of recruits rushed to join the ranks of Red Army. While these are substantial reinforcements, we'll be operating on a shoestring for some time. Q-Ball is exploiting this weakness to its fullest, thwarting my plans and picking up any opportunities to push east fast and hard.

[center]Operational Situation Report[/center]

I thought that Q-Ball had sent one of 4. PzGruppe PanzerKorps to bolster AGC drive onto the land bridge, but I was wrong. 41st and 56th PanzerKorps drove a deep thrust across the screen I had setup on the banks of the Daugava, and are now in the outskirts of Pskov

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where they met the 1st Mechanized Corps 3rd Tank Division. Red Army forces repulsed the German probe suffering substantial tank losses



AGN armor advance has created a huge bulge centered on the city of Rezekne

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I'm railing out these forces and deploying them to shore up my position along the Velikaya.

Q-Ball saw the danger of allowing me to deploy along the Berezina and the Drut and drove really hard 3. PzGruppe all the way from Minsk to Mogilev and Orsha

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My forces put up quite an spirited resistance, holding up several German key units for a surprising amount of time. North of Minsk, the 100th Rifle Division has written a brilliant page into the annals of the Red Army, executing a text book fighting withdrawal for more than 90 miles, holding up units from the 57th and 49th PanzerKorps beyond all expectations:

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In fact, the key for was that the 100th found itself pushed into Borisov – where I had the 227th Rifle Division deployed – and thwarted two successive hasty attacks, one by the 19th PzDiv, the other by the ghastly 7th PzDiv, on the city through a minor river (the Berezina). The third one – by the 7th PzDiv alone - broke the valiant resistance put by both divisions, but left the PzDiv without clout enough to rout the 100th in the pursuit battle that ensued.

The 214th and 7th Airborne brigades, and the 55th Rifle Division have also performed very well. However, these very fine actions haven't been enough to keep the Germans away from the Dnepr as long as I wanted to.

Reviewing my previous turn AAR I saw that my deployment in the Western Ukraine wasn't well balanced. While I had deployed in depth along the Zhitomir – Kiev axis, the Vinnitsa – Kiev axis wasn't half as deep:

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Q-Ball seized the opportunity I had created, simultaneously striking through the Proskurov Gap – and herding a couple Mechanized Corps to a mass grave with 14th and 24th PanzerKorps, and from the south of Proskurov with 3rd PanzerKorps and 48th PanzerKorps. This has completely opened the front here, and my fears of having Southern and Southwestern Fronts separated has become true. Two thirds of the Southwestern Front have been destroyed or are in the process of being captured:

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I'm trying to get the forces in the Lvov pocket – and the Bielystock pocket one as well – to hexes with terrain other than clear. I expect them to have more possibilities of tying up significant Axis forces and giving a bloody nose or two. It's also interesting to note that Q-Ball is giving priority to moving his infantry eastwards rather than to pocket reduction. I think it's a sound decision, which will put extra pressure on the already hard-pressed Red Army forces.

Overall combat results this turn have been 12 routs, 74 retreats, 39 surrenders and 25 held. The latter seem to be exclusively due to Q-Ball relying a lot on hasty attacks on difficult terrain.

[center]Operations: Northwestern Front[/center]

Seeing that I have no options to interdict 4. PzGruppe line of communications, I order the 27th Army to deploy covering the approaches to Tallinn and Narva:

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a light screen, 3 NKVD regiments and a couple Rifle Divisions form up a tenous line between the Baltic and the Peipus lake. Meanwhile, to the north, I deploy 11th Rifle Corps in Tallinn to man the fortifications there. The plan is to hold there, and invite Q-Ball into getting tied in a siege.

South of the Peipus and Pskov lakes I concentrate the bulk of the Northwestern Front

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blocking the direct advance to Pskov and taking positions along the Velikaya and Sinyaya rivers. Defenses around Pskov goal is to discourage 4. PzGruppe from a frontal assault and try to dar Q-Ball into launching a right flank hook to the south.

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Being his motorized units so separated from the infantry, an encirclement would be chancy matter and would delay 41st and 56th PzKorps.

[center]Operations: Western Front[/center]

Something nice to report here

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taking advantage of my deployment and maneuvering around 3. PzGruppe leading element, I manage to cut off 5 motorized divisions. I cover the outer side of the “encirclement” with the 45th Rifle Corps, part of STAVKA's 2nd echelon, which I brought here to defend the Drut. My plans weren't to defend it in this fashion, of course.

While I ruminate whether or not to attack the easternmost German unit – the 20th Motorized Division – I evacuate most of the units that were stranded in the marshes south, and get the units pocketed around Bialystock to “run for the hills” (when possible):

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In this case, the hills are the cities of Bialystock and Lapy and the nearby forests.

I finally decide to attack the 20th Motorized Division, relying on the Soviet commander (Initiative 5, Infantry 5) to get lucky

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Seems that in Soviet Russia, there's no such a thing as luck. Both divisions retreat behind the line I'm forming along the Dnepr:

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I haven't yet bothered in sorting out the C&C situation here. I'm not sure it makes sense to spend AP's until the frontlines haven't stabilized a bit. It's too easy that a German push leaves in tatters a just reformed command chain the next turn.

[center]Operations: Southwestern Front[/center]

First things, first. The Proskurov pocket is punctured:

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now it's time to ponder how to create the most problems for AGS. While I think about it I move onto Southern Front moves, which seem to me to be more clear.

[center]Operations: Southern Front[/center]

Seeing the debacle further north, there aren't many options here

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so the watchword for these forces becomes “RUN”. A screen – or rather, a ragged curtain – is left along the Drut. A couple NKVD regiments hug a couple German divisions. Isn't it cute? Though this isn't a sign of love, very much like there's no love between sharks and remoras (or sharksuckers).

[center]Operations: Southwestern Front Redux[/center]

I really want Q-Ball to detail infantry to clear the Lvov pocket

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I have more forces here pocketed than between 1. PzGruppe spearheads and Kiev... something I mean to fix by keeping 19th and half of 21st Army in the Ukraine.

And what started as a disaster is now an utter mess:

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2nd “Fail Whale” Mech Corps, also dubbed as “Whale on Wheels”, smashes into the German ZOCs covering the LOC of the PzKorps east of Vinnitsa. Proskurov pocket forces stir – I lack a better verb for this – their tendrils to connect with friendly forces moving from both north and south. A PanzerKorps HQ is displaced three times in the process.

Now my head hurts after counting so many MP's.

[center]Industry Evacuation[/center]

With a paltry 2448 railcap points left after shuttling a lot of troops around, I have few options. I decide to partially evacuate the BA-20 Armored Car facilities from Leningrad

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[center]Fortification[/center]

I skip this, I just read that next turn FZ' will cost 8 AP's, so I decide save the 26 I have left (a few critical reattachmentes and some empty corps disbanded).

[Pawlock]

Railcap is ever more crucial is 1.05 , proirity needs to go to armaments now the modifier has dropped. If railcap is scarce dont forget railing just one item aircraft tanks etc they will rebuild. If they are all destroyed you lose them completly, in your case Lenningrad I would move at leat one of the KV1's as you only have 2 factories of these.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Pawlock
Railcap is ever more crucial is 1.05 , proirity needs to go to armaments now the modifier has dropped. If railcap is scarce dont forget railing just one item aircraft tanks etc they will rebuild. If they are all destroyed you lose them completly, in your case Lenningrad I would move at leat one of the KV1's as you only have 2 factories of these.

Yes, it is. I had very little railcap left, but I think Q-Ball will need a couple turns more at the very least - I hope he needs much more than that - to reach Leningrad. So I took some risk here, and got a few extra KVs. Not that they're going to do much of a difference, but every little bit helps.

I really mean to dispel one of the long standing myths in WitE: that the Soviet have too much railcap. That's not true since 1.03... and I saw someone requesting to further increase rail costs for evacuation last week [X(]

[Flaviusx]

It's quite impossible to get out more than a fraction of your industry and this has been true for some time.

The Soviet player, more than ever, has to have a good evacuation plan now, and realize that some stuff is just going to have to burn. A lot of stuff.

I think the evacuation costs are too high now, myself. It's simply not cost effective to rail certain things. (I'm looking at you, Mr. Vehicle Factory. And HI is also up there. 10k/factory is ridiculous.)

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
It's quite impossible to get out more than a fraction of your industry and this has been true for some time.

Some people aren't still convinced... I'll be taking screenshots and giving hard numbers.

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
The Soviet player, more than ever, has to have a good evacuation plan now, and realize that some stuff is just going to have to burn. A lot of stuff.

That's going to be one of my biggest headaches in the next few turns, as the influx of reinforcements (and the criticality to deploy them) decreases a bit. I need to anticipate Q-Ball pushes, not only to channel reserves to blunt them, but also to evacuate things at the right time, not too soon and not too late.

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
I think the evacuation costs are too high now, myself. It's simply not cost effective to rail certain things. (I'm looking at you, Mr. Vehicle Factory. And HI is also up there. 10k/factory is ridiculous.)

Checking the Lend and Lease inputs I think this is even less cost effective:

August 1941 - December 1941: 1000 Supplies/turn, 500 Vehicles/turn
1942: 3000 supplies/turn, 1000 vehicles/turn
1943: 5000 supplies/turn, 3000 vehicles/turn
1944: 7000 supplies/turn, 4000 vehicles/turn
1945: 6000 supplies/turn, 1000 vehicles

The Soviet Unit has 236 HI points and 140 vehicle factories on 22nd June 1941, which translate into 236,000 supplies (which steadily increases along the war due to the multipliers) and 1,400 vehicles a turn. With the exception of the vehicles inputs, the Lend Lease supply input feels like a water drop in the desert. Perhaps these numbers should be revised (though then I can well imagine people wanting U-boats in game to snipe at Murmansk convoys).

[Flaviusx]

This is what I do now: write off everything west of the Dnepr. Odessa, Mogilev, Kiev, Kirovgrad, etc. Bye bye.

Don't let the German offensive tempo dictate your evacuation plan. Get ahead of his curve. If he wants to go on some crazy raid and trash industry, he won't find any armaments, planes or afvs.

Get out the big concentrations first, and get them out early while your rail cap is still high. My rough order here: Leningrad first, then Dnepropetrovsk, then Poltava, then Kharkov and the Donets, then Tula. Some places like Tula and Stalino will take multiple turns to get out all the armaments.

[Michael T]

I have to agree. Rail costs to evacuate factories are now too high. They were doubled some time back. Time to lower them back down. Ball park 2/3 of what they are now. So instead of 6000 per Arm, make it 4000.

I also think 130 per Arm should bump up to 160 or there abouts.

[Ketza]

Very good AAR. It seems as if playing the Soviets is much more of a challenge with many more choices that need to be made.

[timmyab]

Wow, that's a hell of a scrap in the South.You'll probably end up loosing quite a few of those divisions, but it should hold him up for a couple of turns at least.
I agree with Flaviusx about railing industry in large chunks.Leaving your industry dispersed insures against suicide raids and sudden unexpected panzer thrusts.It also seems to get less damaged if it's railed out in large chunks.By choosing where to leave industry behind, I think it's sometimes possible to use it as a lure, encouraging players to overextend themselves or go in directions that you would prefer them to.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
This is what I do now: write off everything west of the Dnepr. Odessa, Mogilev, Kiev, Kirovgrad, etc. Bye bye.

Don't let the German offensive tempo dictate your evacuation plan. Get ahead of his curve. If he wants to go on some crazy raid and trash industry, he won't find any armaments, planes or afvs.

Get out the big concentrations first, and get them out early while your rail cap is still high. My rough order here: Leningrad first, then Dnepropetrovsk, then Poltava, then Kharkov and the Donets, then Tula. Some places like Tula and Stalino will take multiple turns to get out all the armaments.

Thank you for the advice Flavio, I'll try to produce a schedule, so people can get a rough idea of what is possible to evacuate within a realistic time-frame.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: timmyab
Wow, that's a hell of a scrap in the South.You'll probably end up loosing quite a few of those divisions, but it should hold him up for a couple of turns at least.

I wasn't harboring any hopes of preserving much of the Southwestern Front after seeing Q-Ball opening. I hope to offset the advantage he got by tying him for a few turns in the vast Western Ukraine plains, even in the face of terrible losses. It's too dangerous to let the German motorized units to run around unchecked. It is really difficult to predict what they can reach. Putting ZOCs on them and on their LOC reduces the possibilities significantly.

ORIGINAL: timmyab
I agree with Flaviusx about railing industry in large chunks.Leaving your industry dispersed insures against suicide raids and sudden unexpected panzer thrusts.It also seems to get less damaged if it's railed out in large chunks.By choosing where to leave industry behind, I think it's sometimes possible to use it as a lure, encouraging players to overextend themselves or go in directions that you would prefer them to.

This thing about not having FOW on city facilities is something I don't like too much. One way to handle it is to move industry in small chunks, even if they get damaged more, as you say, so your opponent needs to keep an spreadsheet to track it, something unlikely [:)]

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Ketza
Very good AAR. It seems as if playing the Soviets is much more of a challenge with many more choices that need to be made.

Thank you very much Ketza. I try to write it so it feels like reading a story (no role-playing though). If anybody doesn't understand the English or would like some further details on some particular topic, feel free to ask.

[Tarhunnas]

Splendid AAR! And nice moves around Vinnitsa! Good luck!

[sitito]

GL Bletch...It will be an interesting game for sure. I will keep my eyes on this AAR.

As Tarhunnas points: nice reaction near Vinnitsa [:)]

Im glad you've chosen this title as a little tribute to Clash of Steel...what an outstanding game. CoS has been one of my favorite games ever [;)] Love it!

[ComradeP]

Good job isolating parts of the spearheads of AGC and AGS, although you would've done yourself a big favor if you would've also isolated parts of AGN's spearhead, which may or may not have been possible (considering the placement of German units however, I say there was a very good chance that it was possible).

Q-Ball has a thing or two to learn about flank security.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: sitito
GL Bletch...It will be an interesting game for sure. I will keep my eyes on this AAR.

I salute the man who taught me how to fight massive German breakthroughs

ORIGINAL: sitito
As Tarhunnas points: nice reaction near Vinnitsa [:)]

Running behind the Dnepr, wailing as a six-year-old isn't my style, you know [:)]

ORIGINAL: sitito
Im glad you've chosen this title as a little tribute to Clash of Steel...what an outstanding game. CoS has been one of my favorite games ever [;)] Love it!

Good catch, sitito!

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
Good job isolating parts of the spearheads of AGC and AGS, although you would've done yourself a big favor if you would've also isolated parts of AGN's spearhead, which may or may not have been possible (considering the placement of German units however, I say there was a very good chance that it was possible).

It was almost possible. If I had just had a couple more divisions with good morale... I looked into that for half an hour or so, but didn't find a solution.

I'm expecting Q-Ball to be building up 4. PzGruppe HQ's this turn, though. That's what I would do if I were him: to burst just south of Pskov towards Novgorod and Staraya Russa.