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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL)

 
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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/18/2011 6:46:58 PM   
mc3744


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Since you ask so nicely I'll bear with you, but only this time!


_____________________________

Nec recisa recedit

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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/18/2011 8:00:08 PM   
Dixie


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7th Jan

PACIFIC
The Japanese forces have captured Savaii Island, still no sign of IJN carriers yet. This is most definitely a good thing with two large convoys not too far away. Allied search aircraft have located a small (5 ship) convoy north of the Samoas heading North-West.

In addition Japanese forces are ashore at Luganville, it looks like two small units currently including a JNAF AF unit. Does this mean that Japanese air patrols will follow soon?


NEW GUINEA AND THE SOLOMONS
A Japanese force has been spotted near the western end of New Britain, two seperate TFs but no clear indication of what is in them. It'll most likely be an Amphib TF covered by a light cruiser taskforce. The RAAF at Port Moresby have been ordered onto naval attack for tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath though.


EAST INDIES
More B-17 raids against Palembang today, although the damage was non-existent today. The bombers actually coordinated fairly well today with just one squadron missing the form up. The Nates appear to have been taken off of CAP duties but the Zeroes are still in action despite their inability to catch the US bombers.
Latest recce has 96 fighters and 92 auxiliary aircraft there. That's a lot of planes and I'm wondering if switching the big bombers to AF attack would be a worthwhile risk.


CHINA
It was a decent day for the AVG again today. A small sweep by Japanese Zeroes clashed with an AVG patrol above Wuchow and although the clash was, on the face of it, inconclusive it was a victory for the Americans. Despite having the altitude advantage the Japanese attack was defeated with the American pilots claiming all three Japanese fighters as probables. The air losses for today show two Zeroes lost to op loss so I'll claim that as a win.
Nevertheless, I've moved the 1st Sqn to another base. Aerial guerrilla warfare is probably the best hope for the Allies in China right now.

(in reply to mc3744)
Post #: 122
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/18/2011 9:25:09 PM   
Dixie


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Strategical thinking, stand by for a wall of text!...


I'm still unsure exactly what to expect from GBL, he's already passed through this phase of the war as the Allies so he knows what the goodies are capable of, but it's his first time as Japan. However I'd hazard a guess at India/Burma tying up a majority of his forces.

GBL will be aware of the massive numbers of Indian troops available to steamroller back through the Japanese defences in the mid-part of the war. Because of this I'd expect most of his divisional forces to be tied up there with a few more in the East Indies to guard against a US/Australian amphibious op against Java. The possibility of an Australian invasion can't be fully ruled out, but IF one were to emerge I'm expecting it to be a localised affair in the Darwin and/or Perth areas in order to hinder Allied preparations. A full invasion past the Brisbane line is unlikely lest he pull the emergency reinforcements into the fray.

INDIA
I'm guarding against two potential outcomes here. Either an overland invasion from Burma in conjuction with an amphibious assault on Cox's Bazaar or an amphibious invasion of Ceylon or the Bengal coast.

Will GBL risk the ships required to land a significant force in India with a long unguarded supply line? My gut instinct is that a landing on the Indian mainland between Calcutta and Madras is unlikely. There's a big risk for GBL of losing a lot of ships and keeping the RN away would require the KB, thus opening the Pacific for USN carrier raids. By the time GBL is able to muster enough force to land on the coast there will be multiple Allied divisions holding the line, including a good Australian one.

An invasion of Ceylon is more likely, it's isolated from the mainland making it harder to shift Allied reinforcements to resist Japanese aggression. By the time I'd feel the mainland defences are strong enough to spare any extra troops the danger of invasion will be finished with the Japanese amphib bonus. An attack here would result in the likely destruction of the garrison, unlike an attack on the mainland where there is plenty of tactical fall back room and the potential for multiple lines of defence.

A third option for GBL would be invading Diego Garcia and Addu, both are lightly garrisoned at the start and sit in valuable positions to hinder the British sea lanes. The Winnipeg Grenadiers were rescued from HK in order to garrison DG and a US battalion is en route to Cape Town to either reinforce them or to garrison Addu.


The rescue of 11th Indian Div was a lucky one and it's added an extra bit of steel to the Allied defence. It's a more experienced unit than the other Indian divisions and the British 18th. The 11th will have priority for new equipment over the other Indian divisions, although the low state of the Commonwealth reserves means that full strength is likely to be some way off as is the upgrade to '42 Infantry squads. There is a supply convoy at Cape Town which will hopefully alleviate some of the issues with the artillery devices.
Added to the 11th there are a few other smaller units rescued from Singapore, including the Australian 22nd Bde, unfortunately this unit is scattered around a few bases including Singapore (still). The section in Sumatra will have to remain there as Japanese bombers are making it impossible to move any ships to haul them out. Another section is in Java where hopefully it will be easier to keep my boats safe. A few more sections are in Indian waters now, so even in the worst case there should be enough left to rebuild the unit after Singapore falls.

The RAF (and FAA) are in intensive training, fighter squadrons are practicing escort (in order to increase their defence skills) whilst the two torpedo bomber squadrons in Ceylon are training in torpedo attacks. The rest of the RAF bomber squadrons are training in ground attack missions. The lack of built up airfields is a hindrance to the potential torpedo attacks, especially as I don't want to build any coastal airfields, just in case. The most likely position to build a torpedo capable base is Bezwada, between Madras and Vizagapatam. It's in the right position that both Swordfish and Vildebeest aircraft could cover Vizagpatam whilst Swordfish could cover Madras as well. The addition of another air HQ in a week, at Madras, simplifies things as I'd have a source of torpedoes ready to go. By mid-April I'll have half a dozen torpedo squadrons (plus a USN PBY squadron), enough to potentially make a mess of any invasion even if they take casualties from the KB.


In summary, I'm expecting the major effort from the IJA to fall in this area to tie up the potentially massive Indian army from storming through Burma and reopening the Burma road and giving the Allies airfields within striking range of the East Indies. An invasion of Ceylon is possible with attacks on Diego Garcia and Addu probable.



PACIFIC
(includes New Guinea and the Solomons)

The recent invasions by the Japanese in the Pacific have involved a relative handful of units, but the weakness of the Allied garrisons and potential danger from carrier aircraft makes defence here a tricky proposition.

The Japanese force that captured Savaii was the 52nd Naval Garrison Unit, this force was last seen on Ocean Island on the 29th December. I feel that GBL has made an error in taking this island without some AV support included. With aircraft support he could be spying on the Allied convoy routes already, the fact that he hasn't brought any along would suggest that carrier attacks are unlikely (not impossible).
Further West there has been a landing on Luganville, a prime position to take and build into an airbase to threaten New Caledonia. I'm expecting a Japanese assault on New Caledonia before the end of January, before mid-January in all probability.

An attack on Fiji cannot be ruled out, I'd expect a sizable force for such an endeavour in order to guard against any Allied reinforcements making life tricky for an invasion. If GBL wants the island he can take it with a larger attack than I can guard against. Because of this I'm tempted to withdraw the Kiwi troops to fight somewhere else, they are unrestricted which is a definite bonus for the Allies at the current stage of the war and could be part of an Allied counter strike. The other option is to reinforce the island with the Marines and Army tanks which are en route to SOPAC.

I'm expecting to hear from the Japanese 53rd Naval Gd, a unit that was last seen at Nauru Island at the same time as the 52nd were. In fact, the attack on Savaii has surprised me somewhat. There isn't much of an airfield there, no real port facilities, no shipyards and no resources. The only reason for taking it would appear to be the relative closeness of the probable (from GBL's view) proximity of the Allied convoy routes, but the lack of AV support with the assault seems at odds with that view.


There are a decent Allied reinforcements en route, 2nd Marine Rgt (AV 88) and 2nd Marine Tank Bn (AV 82) are at sea and a week or so away from Pago Pago. The 2nd USMC Parachute Bn is a couple of days out from the US West Coast and the US Army 193rd Tank Bn is on board transport and will depart with a destroyer escort. Do I send the boys to Fiji and attempt to hold it or send them to set up an Allied stronghold in Tahiti? The Tahiti plan is the current front-runner for the fact that it would secure the lines of communication to NZ and Australia. Landing in Fiji would perhaps stave off Japanese aggression there, or it could lose the units committed and leave the supply lines vulnerable. Playing it safe for now would mean trading more territory to be retaken later but would leave more Allied forces intact.

The campaign here would be most likely intended to tie up the USN and make supply of the ANZAC nations difficult. I'd suspect that the Japanese perimeter will include Fiji, New Caledonia, Canton Island, Baker Island and the rest of the Samoan Islands. An attack on the Line Islands cannot be ruled out, but GBL knows that some large troop ships have visited already and have probably dropped off some forces. There has to be a balancing act though, if GBL goes too far there is the potential for the US to write off the Pacific front and bolster the Brits in India.



The Indian airbase ideas. From this we can see the potential locations for an TB capable airbase. The position at Bezwada is a favourite as it is not on the coast, can be built to a good level and in conjunction with the AF at Madras allows Swordfish/Albacore torpedo attacks (solid white line) and Vildebeest (dotted line) against likely landing beaches along the Bengali coast line.






If you're still with me after all that reading, congratulations. If you can see some monumental flaw in the Cunning Plan MkI then feel free to speak up. I'm an airman, not a general (or an admiral, or even an Air Marshall)

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Dixie -- 10/18/2011 9:35:57 PM >

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Post #: 123
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/18/2011 9:29:12 PM   
Dixie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

Since you ask so nicely I'll bear with you, but only this time!



You're too kind.

(in reply to mc3744)
Post #: 124
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/18/2011 10:56:11 PM   
Cribtop


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GBL may plan to reinforce Savii with either a small AV support unit OR with one of the numerous AV ships. Recon the base and if you see an anchor symbol then you know what he's up to. Then again, he could just be grabbing with the intention to backfill later with a much more substantial force.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 10/18/2011 10:57:34 PM >


_____________________________


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Post #: 125
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/19/2011 8:16:58 AM   
Dixie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

GBL may plan to reinforce Savii with either a small AV support unit OR with one of the numerous AV ships. Recon the base and if you see an anchor symbol then you know what he's up to. Then again, he could just be grabbing with the intention to backfill later with a much more substantial force.


It's a possibility, but possibly a bit risky unless the victory disease is setting in? Just in case though, the Fiji based B-17s can be set to port attack. All it'll take is a single lucky raid and his AV support would be sat on the seabed.
It's tempting to use the Marines to kick his door down and ruin his day, but they aren't prepped for action just now


EDIT:
A SCTF (1 CA, 2 CL plus DD escorts) has broken away from convoy escort and will be lurking until I can decide whether it's clear to strike or not. Unfortunately that will mean keeping them a good day or two sailing away from Savaii for now. I'd love for GBL to have left his carriers at home, but I can't believe it really. Hopefully they're safely far enough away from any carrier threat.

The Marines are going to Tahiti where they will unload and ready for combat. That will take some time however, and a week is a long time in war. If possible the plan is to get a strong forward position built up and work forwards from there.

< Message edited by Dixie -- 10/19/2011 12:33:06 PM >

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Post #: 126
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/27/2011 1:39:10 PM   
Dixie


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8th Jan 1942

PACIFIC
All quiet in the southern reaches today, Allied patrols have failed to spot evidence of Japanese aircraft near Savaii. With only two carriers available I suppose GBL has to prioritise and they may well be further west at Luganville where there's a threat from the Australian and Kiwi based naval forces.

Luganville was captured today, Japanese forces taking control unopposed by the Allies.


US WEST COAST
Three IJN subs are reported off the coast at San Francisco, this means that there are at least 5 subs operating in US/Canadian waters. More USN destroyers have arrived back on the WC though, so whilst the next wave of convoys prepares the DDs will go hunting.


NEW GUINEA & THE SOLOMONS
Japanese forces have landed at Lae, where Australian forces have already been evaced by air to Port Moresby.

USS Gudgeon engaged a Japanese freighter with gunfire near the Solomons, a lack of torpedoes meant her attack failed to destroy the ship but it has warned GBL that US subs are operating there and should force him to tie up more escorts with convoys in the region.


EAST INDIES
Combined Dutch and US forces again raided Palembang. The Dutch targeted the Japanese airfield during the night whilst the US heavy bombers continued the assault on the refineries. The Dutch bombers managed to destroy a Zero on the ground, iirc it's the first such aircraft they've managed to destroy The B-17s didn't cause much (any) damage, but the Japanese fighters weren't up today. Bad weather? Or is GBL trying to lure me into a trap? Either way, the bombers are staying high for now.


INDIA
232 have arrived with their Hurricanes, the squadron is resting at Bombay for now and undergoing some additional training. This brings the Allied fighter strength to 6 squadrons in India (1 Hurrican, 1 Mohawk, 2 Buffalo, 1 Blenheim and 1 H-81) so that's something...

Luckily it's less than a week before some squadrons arrive who may actually be an asset to the Allies rather than the liability that most of the current units represent.


CHINA
The AVG are still hanging in there. A Japanese sweep was fought off for no loss at Changsha, the aircraft defending the city were left behind previously as they were u/s. One Japanese Zero crashed on the way home, another slight victory for the AVG. Elsewhere in China, the AVG took their first offensive action with a sweep of their own over Wuchang and claiming 5 Nates and an Oscar in return for no American casualties.

The performance of the AVG has been particularly pleasing, in return for 1 aircraft lost to combat (plus 9 combat losses) they have destroyed 38 Japanese aircraft (plus more to ops causes). A 38:1 ratio is eclipsing even that of the Zero against the Buffaloes over Singapore How long can it last though? Currently, the AVG are outclassing the Nate (massively) and Oscar (slightly) fighters and matching the Zero and Tojo. Will GBL leave the IJAAF to take some more lumps? Or move more IJN Zeroes into the country to try and stem the tide?
For my part, the biggest issue facing the AVG is the lack of suitable airfields and support to keep them near the frontline. There are only a handful of friendly AFs that are suitable for offensive operations and they're all in the Southern districts.





8th Jan 1942
Have arrived in India, the Hurris were unloaded from the hold and put onto lorries. We're meant to be spending the next few days building the damn things, not great because none of us actually know how to and there's no M.U. at Bombay. Looks like we're stuck here with nothing to do until the A.P.s arrive. Still no idea where the rest of the squadron, or my kit, is.

-Diary of AC1, R Shoe, 232 Sqn




Lying in a den in Bombay,
With a slack jaw and not much to say.

(in reply to Dixie)
Post #: 127
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 4:58:08 PM   
mc3744


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Hi Dixie,
Luganville is no big loss if you keep Noumea.
Are you going to try and fight for it or will you leave it?
An Aussie Div and a Motor Bde could be put up a decent defense and are quite cheap to reassign to the I Australian Corp.
With a couple of ART and ENG you can build up forts pretty fast.

Quick side question. I have a PBEM on Jan 15th. I believe my opponent will try to take PH. He has captured Midway and not advanced at all in Malaya, DEI, Rabaul or any other location, save for a couple of landings in the Philippines. And I spotted dozens of transports at Midway. Hence my guess.
Should he come for PH in the following days do you believe that a mini-AAR on the PH assault only could be interesting? I know I've never seen it happening before.

_____________________________

Nec recisa recedit

(in reply to Dixie)
Post #: 128
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 5:02:27 PM   
USS America


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

Hi Dixie,
Luganville is no big loss if you keep Noumea.
Are you going to try and fight for it or will you leave it?
An Aussie Div and a Motor Bde could be put up a decent defense and are quite cheap to reassign to the I Australian Corp.
With a couple of ART and ENG you can build up forts pretty fast.

Quick side question. I have a PBEM on Jan 15th. I believe my opponent will try to take PH. He has captured Midway and not advanced at all in Malaya, DEI, Rabaul or any other location, save for a couple of landings in the Philippines. And I spotted dozens of transports at Midway. Hence my guess.
Should he come for PH in the following days do you believe that a mini-AAR on the PH assault only could be interesting? I know I've never seen it happening before.


I can't speak for Dixie, but I would LOVE to read and follow that!

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to mc3744)
Post #: 129
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 5:05:36 PM   
Erkki


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

Hi Dixie,
Luganville is no big loss if you keep Noumea.
Are you going to try and fight for it or will you leave it?
An Aussie Div and a Motor Bde could be put up a decent defense and are quite cheap to reassign to the I Australian Corp.
With a couple of ART and ENG you can build up forts pretty fast.

Quick side question. I have a PBEM on Jan 15th. I believe my opponent will try to take PH. He has captured Midway and not advanced at all in Malaya, DEI, Rabaul or any other location, save for a couple of landings in the Philippines. And I spotted dozens of transports at Midway. Hence my guess.
Should he come for PH in the following days do you believe that a mini-AAR on the PH assault only could be interesting? I know I've never seen it happening before.


Absolutely!

(in reply to mc3744)
Post #: 130
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 5:22:50 PM   
obvert


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quote:

Quick side question. I have a PBEM on Jan 15th. I believe my opponent will try to take PH. He has captured Midway and not advanced at all in Malaya, DEI, Rabaul or any other location, save for a couple of landings in the Philippines. And I spotted dozens of transports at Midway. Hence my guess.
Should he come for PH in the following days do you believe that a mini-AAR on the PH assault only could be interesting? I know I've never seen it happening before.


Yes again!

(in reply to Erkki)
Post #: 131
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 5:54:13 PM   
mc3744


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Hi Dixie

Sorry, I did not intend to hijack your thread
As soon as he knows that I know I'll start the thread.

Apologies again


_____________________________

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Post #: 132
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 7:10:43 PM   
Dixie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

Hi Dixie

Sorry, I did not intend to hijack your thread
As soon as he knows that I know I'll start the thread.

Apologies again



No worries mate. Apologies are not needed

It would be interesting to see how things go if your oppo does invade PH. Are you sure he's going for PH? Could it be that he's holding back for a landing on Australia?

(in reply to mc3744)
Post #: 133
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 7:17:02 PM   
Dixie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

Hi Dixie,
Luganville is no big loss if you keep Noumea.
Are you going to try and fight for it or will you leave it?
An Aussie Div and a Motor Bde could be put up a decent defense and are quite cheap to reassign to the I Australian Corp.
With a couple of ART and ENG you can build up forts pretty fast.




Interesting idea, I'm not sold on a particular course of action yet but I hadn't considered using the Australians. I'd been relocating units to garrison the Perth, Townsville and Darwin regions, I've probably got enough PP to buy out a couple of Aussie LCUs for now. Another option could be to shift the NZ Bde across from Fiji as well, they're already unrestricted. A full division would be a nasty surprise for GBL given that he's mainly been using Nav Gd units for his offensive in the South Pacific. Even better if I can get some decent air support in there, although base forces are limited right now.

I feel an evaluation of shipping available in Brisbane/Sydney is in order, a lot of the merchant fleet was sent to the US to haul supplies back home. See what we've got and report back...

(in reply to mc3744)
Post #: 134
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 7:33:44 PM   
mc3744


Posts: 1957
Joined: 3/9/2004
From: Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dixie


quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

Hi Dixie

Sorry, I did not intend to hijack your thread
As soon as he knows that I know I'll start the thread.

Apologies again



No worries mate. Apologies are not needed

It would be interesting to see how things go if your oppo does invade PH. Are you sure he's going for PH? Could it be that he's holding back for a landing on Australia?


Thanks

If he wanted Australia he would have at least captured Rabaul, Port Moresby, Luganville (which are all empty by he way). He only captured Tulagi and went no farther.
Maybe he is going for the West Coast! That might be quite interesting too!
Also why so many ships in Midway. My subs intercepted several convoys of dozens of ships.
What else is close to Midway worth of any attention? Alaska? He can have it if he wants, no resources, no point, no oil, no troops.
I can see no other worthy objective.
Anyway I'll start writing the mini AAR and will post it later.

_____________________________

Nec recisa recedit

(in reply to Dixie)
Post #: 135
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/28/2011 7:39:08 PM   
mc3744


Posts: 1957
Joined: 3/9/2004
From: Italy
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dixie


quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

Hi Dixie,
Luganville is no big loss if you keep Noumea.
Are you going to try and fight for it or will you leave it?
An Aussie Div and a Motor Bde could be put up a decent defense and are quite cheap to reassign to the I Australian Corp.
With a couple of ART and ENG you can build up forts pretty fast.




Interesting idea, I'm not sold on a particular course of action yet but I hadn't considered using the Australians. I'd been relocating units to garrison the Perth, Townsville and Darwin regions, I've probably got enough PP to buy out a couple of Aussie LCUs for now. Another option could be to shift the NZ Bde across from Fiji as well, they're already unrestricted. A full division would be a nasty surprise for GBL given that he's mainly been using Nav Gd units for his offensive in the South Pacific. Even better if I can get some decent air support in there, although base forces are limited right now.

I feel an evaluation of shipping available in Brisbane/Sydney is in order, a lot of the merchant fleet was sent to the US to haul supplies back home. See what we've got and report back...


If you hold Noumea firmly Luganville (and nearby islands) become an trap for Japanese troops as they are all within 2E and 4E range, not to mention night naval bombardment. If you lose Noumea it's a completely different ball game. You need to cross the open see and need the carriers.

Also an Aussie Div and a Motor Bde converted before setting replacements on are cheaper and smaller, but as soon as they start getting replacements they grow enough to stand up to at least two enemy divisions, and that's a lot to bring down to Noumea.
Initially you just build forts and replacements, no need for air force, ships or increasing the size of the airport/port.
Due to the "small" size with just a few ships you can ferry them to Noumea.

Let us know and good luck!

_____________________________

Nec recisa recedit

(in reply to Dixie)
Post #: 136
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/29/2011 7:00:35 PM   
Dixie


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9th & 10th Jan

Seeing as I'd already run a turn and sent it back to GBL before I posted last night and the fact that things have slowed temporarily I'm combining two days into one post.


PACIFIC

Still no sign of the Japanese fleet in the South Pacific, although coast watcher reports are received of a ship in port at Savaii. Fiji based B-17s will attempt to bomb the ship just in case it's an AV ship.
USS Kingfisher was sunk near Pago Pago by a Japanese submarine attack, no great loss in itself but GBL seems to think that I have plans for PP. I don't. Allied convoys are routed far away from the Samoan Islands and I'm not risking my few unrestricted troops to hold the area just yet.
The advance force of the American support fleet has arrived in the South Pacific, the convoy is being split with half unloading at Tahiti and the rest proceeding to Australia with fuel and supplies. Until there are decent LCUs in place with some fighter cover I don't want to risk too many ships giving away their position.


SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PACIFIC

After consideration, and a review of available shipping in Australia, the Australian 1st Div has been bought out and will form the key component of the New Caledonia garrison force. Two brigades are in SE Oz (Melbourne and Sale) and should be loaded on board their transport in two-three days. The final bde has been recalled from a planned assignment to Perth and will journey across to Brisbane to board more ships.
2/4th Armoured Rgt will join them, as soon as their Matilda tanks arrive. Other forces will be assigned, in the form of US Army artillery and base forces and (probably) New Zealand infantry. There's too much island to defend properly right now, so it's Noumea that'll get the main share of the troops. Reinforcements from the US will follow as time, PPs and shipping allow.

I'm doing this following advice from certain readers, so if it all goes tits up I'm blaming you!


DUTCH EAST INDIES

The Japanese are pushing west from Palembang, two parts of the 38th Div are at Lahat. Presumably the third part is heading south towards Oosthaven.
GBL has moved Oscars in to Palembang, not quite the trap I had in mind the other day. Whilst they are reaching the B-17s they aren't doing much damage to the big bombers. The temptation, now that GBL has put his Zeroes on offensive ops, is to fly in at a lower altitude and clobber the refineries good and proper. The Oscar is too lightly armed to make much impact on a B-17 so it would seem like a worthwhile risk?.....

The Dutch air force has been busy too, while they aren't capable of daytime raids they have been performing nighttime attacks on the crowded field at Palembang. With 129 aircraft reported there, even in the dark the Martins are managing to destroy an aircraft a night. Hardly ground breaking stuff but every little helps, especially as the Oscars aren't much cop at night meaning the Dutch bombers can hold their own.

A small force of MLs has worked into position at Toabali. They haven't reported being spotted so I'm hopeful that their arrival at Palembang tomorrow will be a nasty surprise for GBL. The heavy covering forces are reported to have left Palembang several days ago, so if I'm lucky (yeah right) the Dutch vessels will find some vulnerable transports. Just sinking something would be nice. In any case, there are a few bases that can support the modest needs of these PT boats. Singapore will have to suffice for major rearmament but there are three-four other bases where they can refuel and skulk around, generally being a nuisance. In conjunction with a four-sub wolf pack hopefully this will cause GBL issues getting in and out of Palembang.

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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/29/2011 10:16:37 PM   
mc3744


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dixie

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PACIFIC

After consideration, and a review of available shipping in Australia, the Australian 1st Div has been bought out and will form the key component of the New Caledonia garrison force. Two brigades are in SE Oz (Melbourne and Sale) and should be loaded on board their transport in two-three days. The final bde has been recalled from a planned assignment to Perth and will journey across to Brisbane to board more ships.
2/4th Armoured Rgt will join them, as soon as their Matilda tanks arrive. Other forces will be assigned, in the form of US Army artillery and base forces and (probably) New Zealand infantry. There's too much island to defend properly right now, so it's Noumea that'll get the main share of the troops. Reinforcements from the US will follow as time, PPs and shipping allow.

I'm doing this following advice from certain readers, so if it all goes tits up I'm blaming you!



Guilty as charged!

If I may be so bold I find that reassigning NZ units is very expensive as you don't get the1/4 "discount" you get with Australian or US units. I'd leave them as a last resort.
I'd go with the units located inTasmania (not very likely to be attacked, is it? ), you have a Bde and a nice Base force there (once recombined) and they are much cheaper in PPs than the NZ troops.
Also there's a small island in front of August IIRC, another BF there at low cost.

B-17s are great Oscar killers if you have enough of them
Aussie Motor Bde's are also cheap as they are not at full TOE, but once replacements are on they can grow into nice fighting units, it takes approximately a month.

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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/29/2011 11:49:17 PM   
Dixie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dixie

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PACIFIC

After consideration, and a review of available shipping in Australia, the Australian 1st Div has been bought out and will form the key component of the New Caledonia garrison force. Two brigades are in SE Oz (Melbourne and Sale) and should be loaded on board their transport in two-three days. The final bde has been recalled from a planned assignment to Perth and will journey across to Brisbane to board more ships.
2/4th Armoured Rgt will join them, as soon as their Matilda tanks arrive. Other forces will be assigned, in the form of US Army artillery and base forces and (probably) New Zealand infantry. There's too much island to defend properly right now, so it's Noumea that'll get the main share of the troops. Reinforcements from the US will follow as time, PPs and shipping allow.

I'm doing this following advice from certain readers, so if it all goes tits up I'm blaming you!



Guilty as charged!

If I may be so bold I find that reassigning NZ units is very expensive as you don't get the1/4 "discount" you get with Australian or US units. I'd leave them as a last resort.
I'd go with the units located inTasmania (not very likely to be attacked, is it? ), you have a Bde and a nice Base force there (once recombined) and they are much cheaper in PPs than the NZ troops.
Also there's a small island in front of August IIRC, another BF there at low cost.

B-17s are great Oscar killers if you have enough of them
Aussie Motor Bde's are also cheap as they are not at full TOE, but once replacements are on they can grow into nice fighting units, it takes approximately a month.


There are three NZ Bns in Fiji. Those are the guys I was thinking about moving. I'm not sure if it'll be worth the effort or whether they'll be better off staying where they are. If GBL wants to take Fiji he'll be bringing a force big enough to take it from the Kiwis. So moving them to Noumea might throw a spanner into any plans he has in that direction.

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Post #: 139
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/29/2011 11:56:13 PM   
Mike Solli


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Throw a spanner?!

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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/30/2011 3:44:47 AM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Throw a spanner?!


Dixie to American translation: "Throw a monkey wrench into the works."


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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 10/30/2011 11:50:54 PM   
mc3744


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I've never moved the NZ units from Fiji, didn't know they were unrestricted.
If you don't think you can hold Suva, it definitely makes sense to move them to Noumea.


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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/1/2011 3:55:57 PM   
mc3744


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The war is on holiday?

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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/2/2011 1:07:38 PM   
Dixie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mc3744

The war is on holiday?


12 hour days sort of cripple my ability to (1) prosecute the war and (2) find time to write about it. Not to mention (3) not do something stupid



With reference to Fiji, I don't think I could hold it against a determined Japanese attack. GBL knows what forces start there and what is potentially available, and he'll have a decent idea of the commitment required to seize the islands. Seeing as the islands are outside Japanese recce range he can't get an exact picture of the garrison, so if he turns up then I'd expect it to be in numbers.

If he does invade Fiji, then three NZ Bns are not going to hold him off for long.
If he doesn't invade Fiji, then three NZ Bns could be a surprise when he invades somewhere else. New Caledonia is probably easier to hold than Fiji, closer to Australia and NZ and (just) within LBA range from Australia. It provides a better launch point for a counter offensive up through the Solomons than Fiji as Allied fighter cover can reach Luganville et al from the island.


P.S. Any sign of your proposed AAR?

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Post #: 144
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/3/2011 1:03:43 PM   
mc3744


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Your evaluation on Fiji makes sense. Until you are able to reinforce it, those units are wasted there. It's a good point.

I'm writing the AAR but I'm not posting it until I know what's happening. I don't want to warn him.
It's been 15 days since my "reckoning", but nothing is happening. He is not attacking anywhere!?!!?
I've never seen a game so strange. I'll keep writing it and I'll start posting once he makes his move. Hopefully soon, we are at January 27th. If he waits any longer he will have one hell of an uphill game!

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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/5/2011 10:35:07 PM   
Dixie


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11/12th Jan 1942

PACIFIC
Still not a great deal to report in the wider Pacific. Allied forces are converging on Tahiti, the latest arrivals are a small contingent of New Zealand soldiers brought in from Rarotonga. The first elements of the USMC regiment garrison should arrive in a couple of days, but unloading will require some juggling of the ships in the convoy to make best use of the limited port facilities available. A USN PBY group has also been brought in to provide long range naval search capability, just in case.

USS Maryland, West Virginia
and Nevada are all safely off map now, arrival in Panama is 14 days away and then it's the long trek to the East Coast shipyards. Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Tennessee will reach the off-map area tomorrow. The destroyers from these two fleets will return to the West Coast and help clear the way for more convoys.


SOUTH PACIFIC
Another Japanese sub has been located, this time I-24 has put a torpedo into a US freighter leaving the ship crippled but afloat (for now). Coupled with the presence of I-18 at Pago Pago and an unidentified sub at Suva it would appear that GBL has sent subs to lurk at potential major forward operating bases. There's a lack of available DDs right now with several US and Dutch ships undergoing repair in Australia, although the Dutch ships are too short ranged to be any real use in the vast expanse of water.

The first of the Australian Bdes is finally ready to start loading on board their transport, they will depart from Sale on a couple of fast (15kts & 18kts) transports. This should ensure that they will have reached Noumea, unloaded and cleared out before the second brigade arrives from Melbourne on their slower (13kts) transports. An armoured Rgt will have to be worked into the equation at some point as well. The New Zealand troops from Fiji will be loaded as amphibious troops to avoid overloading the small port at Noumea.

A pair of USN submarines (from the newly formed flotilla t Brisbane) has been ordered to patrol between Noumea and Luganville.


EAST INDIES
The Dutch MTB squadron has achieved some success, despite botching their first outing. On the 11th the squadron set out to Palembang hoping to ambush some Japanese ships but ran into a Japanese MTB. Instead of doing the sensible thing and ganging up on the enemy my lot turned tail and ran. Despite this GBL sent a lightly escorted (1 PB and 16 AK) convoy through the area where they passed through the MTB's hiding place. In a swift night battle the Dutch boats managed to sink a freighter and damage several more. As a result I expect GBL to send a SCTF sweep through the local bases so my lot are withdrawing to Singers for a few days. If nothing else this has taught GBL to use a decent number of escorts, we'll see if future warnings are ignored like the events of the 11th...
The Dutch sub O-20 also put a torpedo into a Japanese ship, followed by sinking sounds although no confirmation of the victory (yet). Unfortunately the sub was then hit by two depth charges so she requires repairs back at Soerbaja. O-20 confirmed that Japanese troops were on the ship she sank, although there is no conclusive evidence whether the convoy was heading towards or away from Palembang.


CHINA
A couple of indifferent days for the AVG, the Americans were bested on the 11th in combat with an IJAAF Tojo but returned the next day and shot one down. This has brought the total of Tojo kills up to three, a good proportion of GBLs available strength of this type. Not a great victory by any means but it does mean that there is less to fear in Chinese skies with the AVG able to match the Oscars, Nates and even Zeroes.
The CAF is a dubious proposition. Most of my pilots barely know how to fly their own aircraft, let alone take them into combat. Frustrating is one word that fits the situation, especially given the lack of replacement aircraft. With more aircraft and decent pilots we could flood the Chinese theatre with aircraft.

INDIA
More Hurricanes have arrived in Aden, three squadrons today with another one due tomorrow and another a week later. Nowhere near enough for my liking but I'll take what I can get right now. Happily these three squadrons are almost combat ready in terms of experience. The remaining RAF squadrons in India are still training at bases in Northern India. Ideally the squadrons will be held back until their defensive skills are above 60, but 50 will do for a bare minimum, which leaves the 488 Sqn,67 Sqn, 5 Sqn and 232(P) Sqn falling short for now. The bomber situation is a little better with most squadrons having 50+ exp in their primary role (either ground attack or torpedo attack).

The first elements of the Australian divisions is in Aden, 16th Bde will be heading for the Madras area. I could really do with both Australian divisions arriving right now. As it is, the 6th Division will be based around the Madras/Cochin region with the 7th being based nearer the India/Burma border region. There are no definite positions planned currently.



OVERALL SITUATION
Things have slowed down over the past few days as GBL no doubt prepares for the second wave of assaults on the Allied positions. This also includes the situation in China where the waves of Japanese assaults have halted for now at least.
The Allied ground forces have been powerless to resist the Japanese assault thus far, a fact that is particularly true in China. Until the Allies have established secure bases and positioned good quality LCUs in the front line this is likely to continue.
In the air it's the same story, with the notable exception of the AVG. Two AVG squadrons have scored a combined total of 48 kills which accounts for almost 30% of the Allied kills in the first month of combat. I get the feeling that they have irked GBL somewhat, given the arrival of a Zero group in the Chinese skies and the fact that he now needs to escort his bombing raids. Only a lack of supply and support has prevented the AVG 3rd squadron from being sent into China at this point, instead they are guarding Calcutta.

Allied positions in the Pacific and India are rapidly (sort of) being reinforced, but the sheer distance to be defended makes it a difficult proposition, with several locations reluctantly being left unguarded. There will hopefully be enough of a defence to halt Japanese aggression towards the key locations.
The rescue of British, Indian and Australian troops from Singapore should bolster the Indian front enough to hold off Japanese aggression there. In the Pacific the Line Islands, Tahiti and New Caledonia will be fortified and built into forward bases for the US counter attack. The Line Islands should be safe from capture with their regimental garrisons sat behind decent fort levels whilst the Noumea defence will rely on numbers of troops hiding in the jungle.

That's the theory at least...






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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/6/2011 8:19:53 PM   
Dixie


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13th January 1942

Still fairly quiet out and about with a few exceptions, a situation that suits me fine.

PACIFIC (South and Central)
Submarines provided the only action in the greater Pacific. USS Triton has reported sinking a Japanese patrol boat near Truk, a rare success for the US torpedoes. It's a shame she didn't attack one of the freighters in the convoy, but every point helps at this stage. Triton spent the rest of the day dodging Japanese counter-attacks before managing to launch an attack on the cruiser Kashii, sadly without damaging the ship.
The Japanese counter came in the form of I-24 at Noumea where Mobile City was sunk. Luckily the freighter managed to draw the submarine's attention away from the PT boat supply tender in the same TF. Now all I need is some supply and GBL will need to worry about another facet of the Allied defences.


EAST INDIES
Submarines were again the main element of the Allied efforts, but results are somewhat lacking. USS Pike has engaged a Japanese convoy near Obi, launching an ineffective attack. Given the location of the Japanese TF I suspect that this is the invasion of Ambon.

Near Palembang it would appear that GBL has not learned the lesson that the Dutch MTB flotilla was providing yesterday. The same lightly escorted convoy again moved past Muntok with a solitary PB escort. Unfortunately the MTBs were returning to Singapore so they failed to reinforce the lesson. The Dutch sub K-IX was on patrol but was driven off by Japanese ASW attacks.

The B-17 raids from Java are continuing to damage good numbers of Japanese fighters over Palmebang although the bombing effects are pretty minimal. The squadrons are starting to show the effects of heavy commitment however and will need an extensive rest in the next few days.


EVERYWHERE ELSE
Japanese bombers attacked Singapore, Rangoon and Manila without opposition. The AVG carried out a sweep against Wuchang where they came out (just) ahead of the IJAAF units based there.

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Post #: 147
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/8/2011 1:17:38 PM   
Dixie


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14th Jan

EAST INDIES
Japanese battleships bombarded Kendari and have put the airfield out of action, not that there's much based there. This is probably a good thing given that there are several Japanese transport ships in attendance as well. The bombardment has managed to put the base force out of action but has left the (small) infantry unit untouched. The options for a counter attack are limited, three Dutch subs are departing from Soerbaja in an effort to cause some damage.

The air attacks on Palembang are being halted for now whilst the bomber squadrons catch a quick rest. Nuisance raids on the airfield by Dutch bombers will continue, but the main effort has been diverted to ground attack for a few days. The primary target is elements of the Japanese 38th Division north of Oosthaven, for some bizarre reason I'm expecting very little success in this endeavour.

More troops from the IJ 38th pushed the remaining survivors of Palembang back into Benkoelen where they are linking up with part of the Australian 22nd Bde. The 22nd is spread across several bases in Sumatra, Java, Singapore and India as various methods of rescue were used and then fell by the wayside. Approximately half of the brigade has been rescued but Japanese air patrols have made any further attempt to pull troops from Singapore too dangerous. The troops in Java will attempt to get away on Allied shipping, the Dutch fighters may just be enough to dissuade any interference from Betty and Nell. If that plan comes off then there should be just short of half a brigade in India.

There was another Japanese convoy passing through Muntok, although this time with a pair of destroyers providing some escort. It's still not much of an escort for the convoys that have been through, hopefully the MTBs will be able to put in a repeat performance in a couple of nights.


PACIFIC
Oops. The Jap sub at Noumea has found another victim, I though I'd redirected all the unescorted ships away from the base but I missed one. Puerto Rican is sat in the harbour badly damaged, although not in immediate danger of sinking. For the next few days/weeks Allied ships from Fiji will instead unload at La Foa, although the Australian units will need the harbour facilities at Noumea.

There is only one unescorted TF in the South Pacific now, so any further Japanese sub successes will hopefully be limited. I've even managed to scrape together a four DD ASW group which is moving to Fiji in an effort to get rid of I-22.

The Tahiti forces are nearing the islands, with the first part of the Marine regiment a day away from landing the convoy has been split, there are several large (but slow) tankers which are heading onward to Auckland. A couple of smaller tankers are staying with the troopships in order to build a small fuel reserve at Tahiti.
The first support troops are already en route, a 'proper' base force is at sea with more already planned to join them. For the time being the USMC support forces will also be based in this little corner of the Pacific. The mid-long term goal is to link the Auckland-Tahiti-Line Islands-Hawaii route with proper bases and garrison troops, but for now all I can do is secure parts of the route.

II US fighter Command is boarding the Queen Elizabeth for a high speed dash down to Oz. Once the submarine belt is dodged the liner should be good to go Air units are slowly departing for the South Pacific, now that the Line Islands are safely garrisoned the demand on Allied shipping is not as urgent, although there is some juggling between supplies, LCUs and air units to consider. The fast freighters are being used as air transports along with the two US AKV vessels. I could really use more AKVs, well more of everything really...
Now that fuel is available in New Zealand several USN destroyers are moving from Australia across to Kiwi-land. From here they will escort troopships engaged in moving the Fiji based forces. GBL's subs have had an easy time so far, as the escort deployment has lagged behind the merchant ships.



MALAYA
Japanese troops are just to the north of Singapore. Not long until they cross the causeway I'd suspect and then GBL will find out how much of the garrison was whisked away. Or he may not actually notice. We'll find out I suppose.


CHINA
Despite fairly heavy air ops there was not a lot of actual combat. An AVG sweep shot down an Oscar over Hankow whilst Japanese bombers continue to attack Chinese troops in Chushein. Even with the daily sweeps by high-flying Zeroes from Amoy I'm considering putting the AVG back into combat over Chushein as the actual bomber raids have been lightly guarded. Or a fighter sweep against Amoy.


INDIA
Mostly a continuation of ongoing troop redeployments.

Two Australian brigades are on map, although still in Aden whilst they board some ships. The 6th Division has been given the coastline between Cochin and Mangalore to defend, along with an assortment of artillery, coastal defence units and Indian infantry.
Two Indian divisions will take Madras, at least until one of them reaches full strength. Again, there is an assorted group of artillery and support forces in the base as well.
The British 18th Division along with some Indian armour are guarding the Bengal coast, these positions will be reinforced with additional Indian troops as they become available.

Towards the India/Burma border there are several forces mixed together. The main defence is planned forward of Calcutta. The intention is to use the jungle terrain to even out the experience gap between the Japanese and Indian troops. I'm not sure, but I'm thinking of detaching smaller forces outside the bases to guard against GBL outflanking my positions, but battalion or brigade sized chunks?

There are planned defences inland, mostly manned by British battalions. The low replacement rates for the Brit infantry means that they will have to take a supporting role for the time being. There is also some planning in sticking these units behind the main defences, first in guards against any sneaky para drops They are also more experienced (in general) and smaller than their Indian counterparts, so they will need their experience and 100% prep to stand any chance of preventing a Japanese breakout (if the worst happens and they reach that far).

The worst problem is that although the front line likes decent, there isn't a lot available right now to stack up behind it. As long as the survivors of Burma can make it back to India that will provide some help, the defences have to hold until mid-April when the Brit 70th Division arrives to provide some decent muscle to back up the two Australian divisions. It's easy to be negative as the Allies isn't it....



Southern India, the planned defences as of 15th Jan 1942.




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Post #: 148
RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/8/2011 3:14:14 PM   
mc3744


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dixie

The first elements of the Australian divisions is in Aden, 16th Bde will be heading for the Madras area. I could really do with both Australian divisions arriving right now. As it is, the 6th Division will be based around the Madras/Cochin region with the 7th being based nearer the India/Burma border region. There are no definite positions planned currently.




What about Colombo? It's the best shipyard and naval base in the theater. Are you not afraid of an attack there?
If I played the Japs (which I don't ) I'd find Colombo a tempting target. Locking the Indian Ocean and depriving you of the best naval repair facilities.

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RE: No Way to Fight a War (Dixie vs GBL) - 11/8/2011 3:22:17 PM   
mc3744


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dixie

The worst problem is that although the front line likes decent, there isn't a lot available right now to stack up behind it. As long as the survivors of Burma can make it back to India that will provide some help, the defences have to hold until mid-April when the Brit 70th Division arrives to provide some decent muscle to back up the two Australian divisions. It's easy to be negative as the Allies isn't it....




You should be getting the 7th Armored Bde soon. That's a powerful unit, with experience at 70, high mobility and a very good punch.

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