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RE: Closing the Med

 
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RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 5:07:25 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3572
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
Okay, I've cut and pasted together the notes I took from each of the turns, to show what US Entry Options were chosen, when they were picked, and what happened with the die rolls.

The abbreviations should be pretty obvious:
USE-10 = US Entry roll was a '10'

Also, the number in brackets is the actual number used by the program. For example:
(1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) means that the program picks a number, with the options being anything from 0 to 5, and gets a '2'. That is the 3rd chit of 6 chits.

Likewise, the number in parentheses after a chit draw is the random number generated to determine the value of the chit. I keep track of this, rather than the actual value, in my testing.

Initial Chits
2 x Ge/It (2588, 2912)
1 x Ja (327)

S/O '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (2541)
USA selects Resources to Western Allies; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Occupy Greenland and Iceland; USE-9 (1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) Ge/It
USA selects Resources to China; USE-8 (no chits moved) and Chinese Build Aircraft; USE-9 (no chits moved) Ja

Ge/It Entry: 30
Ge/It Tension: 6
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 2

N/D '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (548)
USA selects Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ja
USA selects Resources to USSR; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Lend Lease to Western Allies; USE-4 (1 chit moved, 4 of 5 [3])

Ge/It Entry: 25
Ge/It Tension: 14
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 10

J/F '40
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (123)
USA selects Reopen Burma Road; USE-8 (no chits moved) Ja
USA selects Gift of Destroyers to Commonwealth; USE-9 (no chits moved) All
USA selects US East Coast Escorts; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ge/It

Ge/It Entry: 23
Ge/It Tension: 20
Ja Entry: 28
Ja Tension: 12

M/A '40
USA draws 1 chit to the Ge/It Entry Pool (88)
USA selects Gear up Production; USE-1 (1 chit moved, 1 of 6 [0]) All (Ja)

Ge/It Entry: 24
Ge/It Tension: 21
Ja Entry: 27
Ja Tension: 14

M/J '40
USA draws 1 chit to the Ge/It Entry Pool (186)
USA selects Lend Lease to China, +3 Tension, USE-8 (1 chit moved, 1 of 7 [0]) Ja
USA selects Lend Lease to USSR, USE-1 (2 chits moved, 7 of 7 [6], 5 of 6 [4]) Ge/It

Ge/It Entry: 21
Ge/It Tension: 30
Ge/It DOW: None
Ja Entry 30
Ja Tension: 18
Ja DOW: 0%

J/A '40
USA draws 1 chit to Ge/It Entry Pool (364)
USA selects Pass War Appropriations Bill, USE-2 (2 chits moved, 1 of 6 [0], 3 of 5 [2]) Ja (All)

Ge/It Entry: 35
Ge/It Tension: 33
Ge/It DOW: 0%
Ja Entry: 28
Ja Tension: 26
Ja DOW: 10%

S/O '40
USA draws 1 chit to Ja Entry Pool (2)
USA selects Start Strategic Bomber Production, USE-5 (1 chit moved, 5 of 9 [4]) Ge/It (All)

Ge/It Entry: 33
Ge/It Tension: 36
Ge/It DOW: 0%
Ja Entry: 31
Ja Tension: 27
Ja DOW: 10%
-----
Edit: Before anyone tells me I'm playing stupidly, I just want to say that I'm aware of it as a possibility. I started this game sometime in mid-August, which was 18 patches ago (and 2 full versions, as well). I work on MWiF for many hours each day, and I rarely have a chance to play more than an impulse or two per day. Combine this with the difficulties of trying to make long-term plans for 6 major powers, and it isn't surprising that I'll make dumb errors (particularly since I've never played a full game).

This is just a disclaimer, since I'm not trying to play brilliantly. I'm just trying to play this game reasonably, and as far into it as I can.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 10/28/2011 5:22:05 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Extraneous)
Post #: 121
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 5:16:00 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3572
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: troop76

Can't say I'm fond of the argument that 'the US has lots of BPs so lets buy STRs'.

Yes the US DOES have a lot of BP, they also will have a two front war to fight and two allies to potentially prop up with LL.
Secondly as the CW is in a lot of trouble and Germany isn't embroiled in Russia you don't have the luxury to sit back and bomb him to death, you need boots on the ground saving CW ass. (imho)
How has CW production been?
If the US has to go Europe heavy straight off, I'd think you'd want lotsa FTR, ARM, TAC, INF/MOT..then you need NAV to protect convoys, Convoys themselves, and keep up your ship building program including AMPH and TRS...in terms of priorities I think STR is way down on the list. Though keep in mind that's more specifically for a CW first strategy by the Axis.

With 40-50 BPs US might have a turn, after say 4-5 are going off to FF and CW, I can find plenty of things to build before I get to STR...:P

See the above posts, which explain that there is currently a bug preventing shipment of BP overseas to France (there is no Free France or Vichy) or the CW.
-----
Edit: I also happen to disagree with the objection to Strat Bomber production, though it is purely a choice of playing style. Every Production Point that gets bombed out of existence early on has that much more effect over the course of a game. The CW was doing very well with limited bombers, until it lost 2 of its best in a single disastrous raid (very lucky German die rolls).

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 10/28/2011 5:18:14 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to troop76)
Post #: 122
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 5:31:49 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3572
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
And now I've put together the USA builds by turn:

S/O '39
USA (11): 2 x BB(1st), 1 x CV(1st), 1 x CP, 2 x CVP-0, 1 x CV(Repair), 1 x Pilot

N/D '39
USA (10): 1 x TERR, 1 x BB(1st), 1 x ASW Escort(1st), 1 x CP, 1 x CVP-0, 2 x Pilot

J/F '40
USA (10): 1 x INF, 1 x ASW Carrier(1st), 1 x ASW Escort(1st), 1 x SUB(1st), 2 x CVP-1, 1 x Pilot

M/A '40
USA (19): 1 x GARR, 3 x CVP-1, 1 x CP, 1 x AMPH(1st), 2 x SUB(1st), 2 x BB(Repair), 2 x Pilot

M/J '40
USA (21): 1 x MAR, 2 x CL (1st), 1 x CP, 1 x FTR-2, 2 x CVP-1, 1 x ASW Carrier (2nd), 3 x Pilot

J/A '40
USA (31): 2 x PARA, 1 x HQ-A, 4 x CL(1st), 2 x CVP-1, 1 x NAV-3, 2 x Pilot

S/O '40
USA (31): 1 x INF, 1 x MAR Division, 1 x GARR, 1 x MECH, 2 x AMPH(1st), 2 x CVP-1, 1 x CV(2nd), 1 x SUB(2nd), 3 x Pilot

As you can see, I'm starting to build up gearing limits for land units. My early goal was to get my Carrier fleet in order. Early on I wasn't getting the CVP I wanted, so I had to build more. Notice that I haven't actually built any LND yet, but the USA doesn't get any really good ones until '41 begins, anyway, which is only a turn away (well, two really).

Additionally, I wanted to get my terrific BB built early, so that they could support invasions in the Pacific. Remember, Germany didn't actually conquer France until M/J '40, so there wasn't a clear sign that it was going to try for Spain and Gibraltar until maybe late M/A '40.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 10/28/2011 5:36:35 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 123
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 6:53:51 PM   
troop76

 

Posts: 44
Joined: 12/18/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

-----
Edit: I also happen to disagree with the objection to Strat Bomber production, though it is purely a choice of playing style. Every Production Point that gets bombed out of existence early on has that much more effect over the course of a game. The CW was doing very well with limited bombers, until it lost 2 of its best in a single disastrous raid (very lucky German die rolls).


I definately agree that using CW bombers for Strat Bombing especially early in the game is very helpful. Our difference in opinion is how to utilize US production best when Germany is following a CW First strategy..I believe that in that environment US STR's are a luxury. (plus the cost to US entry by picking the option!). Again if Germany was in Russia then bombs away, but when Italy and Germany (and possibly Japan) are all squeezing the CW you have to relieve that pressure first and bomb second (or third..:)).

How bad has the war in the atlantic been for CW production btw?

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 124
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 7:01:31 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2162
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
Strat bombing is a great way to stretch German/Italian air forces in addition to cutting down Axis production due to succesful raids.

The Allied army won't need to be super-huge as long as it is big enough to hold the line (or push forward) in North Africa and threaten landings all along the Portugese, Spanish, French & Low Countries coastlines.

Adding Iberia to the coastline the Axis needs to defend, especially if the Allies have invasion/paradrop capacity in 1941, is a tall order.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 125
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 7:44:28 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3572
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: troop76


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

-----
Edit: I also happen to disagree with the objection to Strat Bomber production, though it is purely a choice of playing style. Every Production Point that gets bombed out of existence early on has that much more effect over the course of a game. The CW was doing very well with limited bombers, until it lost 2 of its best in a single disastrous raid (very lucky German die rolls).


I definately agree that using CW bombers for Strat Bombing especially early in the game is very helpful. Our difference in opinion is how to utilize US production best when Germany is following a CW First strategy..I believe that in that environment US STR's are a luxury. (plus the cost to US entry by picking the option!). Again if Germany was in Russia then bombs away, but when Italy and Germany (and possibly Japan) are all squeezing the CW you have to relieve that pressure first and bomb second (or third..:)).

How bad has the war in the atlantic been for CW production btw?

So far, the CW production has only been hurt by an early Partisan in Bombay which destroyed the factory there. Until this turn, Germany and Italy were unable to take out any of the CW convoys (and it is yet to be determined if they'll manage to do any damage this turn).

I really wouldn't call this a CW First strategy. I could be wrong, though. Is "Closing the Med" considered CW First? I thought that was more of a Sea Lion thing, and Germany has no obvious intention of launching that. Japan has actually made no moves threatening the CW directly. Of course, that will likely change when the Oil is squeezed. Japan has actually been playing a China First strategy, with little regard for the rest of the world.

CW production is steady at 18 BP each turn. they really aren't in any danger -- yet. In fact, Germany is slowly moving troops back toward the Soviet border, so it should be obvious to the CW player (me ) that the worst is over, and the only fight left is going to be for Gibraltar. Of course, Italy and Germany continue to build SUBs each turn, and Italy really won't have anything to do once it cleans up the Middle-East, except to try to finish off North Africa and support an attack on the USSR.

The USA is a long way from having the lift it needs to invade and stick around in Europe. It might be able to annoy Germany now and then, but in the meantime, I don't see any reason why they shouldn't build a LND every other turn (or more frequently) that can knock out German production once at war.
-----
Edit: Also, remember that this is still only 1940, so there is no real reason that Germany would be embroiled in a war in Russia at this point. The earliest that usually happens is M/J '41, isn't it?

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 10/28/2011 7:46:16 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to troop76)
Post #: 126
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 8:17:52 PM   
paulderynck


Posts: 4149
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Okay, I've cut and pasted together the notes I took from each of the turns, to show what US Entry Options were chosen, when they were picked, and what happened with the die rolls.

The abbreviations should be pretty obvious:
USE-10 = US Entry roll was a '10'

Also, the number in brackets is the actual number used by the program. For example:
(1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) means that the program picks a number, with the options being anything from 0 to 5, and gets a '2'. That is the 3rd chit of 6 chits.

Likewise, the number in parentheses after a chit draw is the random number generated to determine the value of the chit. I keep track of this, rather than the actual value, in my testing.

Initial Chits
2 x Ge/It (2588, 2912)
1 x Ja (327)

S/O '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (2541)
USA selects Resources to Western Allies; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Occupy Greenland and Iceland; USE-9 (1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) Ge/It
USA selects Resources to China; USE-8 (no chits moved) and Chinese Build Aircraft; USE-9 (no chits moved) Ja

Ge/It Entry: 30
Ge/It Tension: 6
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 2

N/D '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (548)
USA selects Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ja
USA selects Resources to USSR; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Lend Lease to Western Allies; USE-4 (1 chit moved, 4 of 5 [3])

Ge/It Entry: 25
Ge/It Tension: 14
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 10

Those are spectacularly high entry levels for 1939. Do you have a record of the chit values?

_____________________________

Paul

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 127
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 9:02:36 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3572
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Okay, I've cut and pasted together the notes I took from each of the turns, to show what US Entry Options were chosen, when they were picked, and what happened with the die rolls.

The abbreviations should be pretty obvious:
USE-10 = US Entry roll was a '10'

Also, the number in brackets is the actual number used by the program. For example:
(1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) means that the program picks a number, with the options being anything from 0 to 5, and gets a '2'. That is the 3rd chit of 6 chits.

Likewise, the number in parentheses after a chit draw is the random number generated to determine the value of the chit. I keep track of this, rather than the actual value, in my testing.

Initial Chits
2 x Ge/It (2588, 2912)
1 x Ja (327)

S/O '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (2541)
USA selects Resources to Western Allies; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Occupy Greenland and Iceland; USE-9 (1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) Ge/It
USA selects Resources to China; USE-8 (no chits moved) and Chinese Build Aircraft; USE-9 (no chits moved) Ja

Ge/It Entry: 30
Ge/It Tension: 6
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 2

N/D '39
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (548)
USA selects Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ja
USA selects Resources to USSR; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Lend Lease to Western Allies; USE-4 (1 chit moved, 4 of 5 [3])

Ge/It Entry: 25
Ge/It Tension: 14
Japan Entry: 22
Japan Tension: 10

Those are spectacularly high entry levels for 1939. Do you have a record of the chit values?

I could look up the random numbers generated . . . they'd then need to be converted to actual values. I'll also have to look up the chit draws.

The point is, I do have a record. I'll check into it shortly (I'm tired of writing, and I'm willing to do anything to take a break from it!).

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 128
RE: Closing the Med - 10/28/2011 9:50:47 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3572
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
Here's how the US Entry chits played out:
-----
I'm sorry if this is somewhat confusing. I trimmed away pretty much everything that had nothing to do with US Entry chits.
-----
S/O '39
US Entry chits at start:
2 x Ge/It (2588, 2912) - 4, 4
1 x Ja (327) - 1

Impulse 1:
Germany DOW Poland (CW); USE-5 (+1 chit, 1699) - 2 (2, 4, 4)
Japan aligns Siam; USE-7 (no chit)

Impulse 2:
CW DOW Germany; USE-9 (-1 chit, 1 of 3 [0]) - 2 (4, 4)
USSR occupies Eastern Poland; USE-10 (no chit)

Impulse 3:
Italy DOW France; USE-3 (+1 chit, 1888) - 3 (3, 4, 4)
Germany DOW Denmark (CW); USE-1 (+1 chit, 2787) - 4 (3, 4, 4, 4)
Germany DOW Greece (CW); USE-2 (+1 chit, 1052) - 2 (2, 3, 4, 4, 4)
Germany DOW Netherlands (CW); USE-1 (+1 chit, 552) - 1 (1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4)
Italy DOW Greece; USE-9 (no chit)
Germany aligns Bulgaria; USE-10 (no chit)

Impulse 4:
USSR claims Finnish Borderlands (Allowed)
USSR DOW Persia (Ja); USE-5 (-1 chit, 1 of 6 [0]) - 1 (2, 3, 4, 4, 4)

Impulse 5:
Germany DOW Belgium (CW); USE-5 (+1 chit, 2523) - 4 (2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4)
Japanese attack on Tsinan successful, disorganized; USE-2 (+1 chit, 2689) - 4 (1, 4)

End of Turn:
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (2541) - 4 (1, 4, 4)
USA selects Resources to Western Allies; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Occupy Greenland and Iceland; USE-9 (1 chit moved, 3 of 6 [2]) Ge/It - 4
USA selects Resources to China; USE-8 (no chits moved) and Chinese Build Aircraft; USE-9 (no chits moved) Ja

Ge/It Entry: 30 (2, 3, 4, 4, 4)
Ge/It Tension: 6 (4)
Japan Entry: 22 (1, 4, 4)
Japan Tension: 2 (-)


N/D '39
Impulse 3:
Japan Closes the Burma Road; USE-5 (+1 chit, 2911) - 4 (1, 4, 4, 4)

End of Turn:
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (548) - 1 (1, 1, 4, 4, 4)
USA selects Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ja - 4
USA selects Resources to USSR; USE-10 (no chits moved) and Lend Lease to Western Allies; USE-4 (1 chit moved, 4 of 5 [3]) Ge/It - 4

Ge/It Entry: 25 (2, 3, 4, 4)
Ge/It Tension: 14 (4, 4)
Japan Entry: 22 (1, 1, 4, 4)
Japan Tension: 10 (4)


J/F '40
Impulse 3:
Germany denies the claims by Hungary and Bulgaria
Germany DOW Hungary (France); USE-8 (no chit)
Germany aligns Finland; USE-6 (no chit)

Impulse 7:
Rumania aligns with Germany as a Full Ally; USE-3 (+1 chit, 194) - 1 (1, 2, 3, 4, 4)
Japan occupies Nanning; USE-2 (+1 chit, 355) - 4 (1, 1, 4, 4, 4)

Impulse 12:
Italy aligns Iraq; USE-10 (no chit)

End of Turn:
USA draws 1 chit to the Ja Entry Pool (123) - 1 (1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 4)
USA selects Reopen Burma Road; USE-8 (no chits moved) Ja
USA selects Gift of Destroyers to Commonwealth; USE-9 (no chits moved) All
USA selects US East Coast Escorts; USE-3 (1 chit moved, 5 of 5 [4]) Ge/It - 4

Ge/It Entry: 23 (1, 2, 3, 4)
Ge/It Tension: 20 (4, 4, 4)
Ja Entry: 28 (1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 4)
Ja Tension: 12 (4)
-----
You can see from this that the Allies tried to avoid doing anything that would remove chits.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 129
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 1:19:35 AM   
brian brian

 

Posts: 1651
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: online
those USE numbers are just plain wacked and I suspect a bug. if it's not a bug, then this is a very bad example of what happens with making an infinite pool of chits, rather than the cardboard game system of restricting the # of 0 and 5 chits the USA can have, or this in case obviously all those 4 value chits, of which there are very few in the cardboard pool until 1941, and they stand good chances of ending up in the USSR/German border neutrality pact pools. I know it was all statistically analyzed ahead of time, but this will remain a possibility in any game, with a flip side of all those 4 value chits listed above being 0 values instead and the USA not passing 1st gear-up until 1942. not limiting the chits puts big spikes in the possibilities, rather than smoothed out curves, and this game is one of those spikes.

If I was the Axis in this game, I would probably consider resigning if the Americans passed War Appropriations in 1940. If I was the Allies, I would graciously accept.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 130
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:00:43 AM   
brian brian

 

Posts: 1651
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: online
oh and I dug out some reference files and discovered there are only 6 "4" value chits in the 1939 pool, and none in 1940. in this game by J/F 1940 8 of these chits exist just in the USE pools...

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 131
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:18:41 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 18241
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

those USE numbers are just plain wacked and I suspect a bug. if it's not a bug, then this is a very bad example of what happens with making an infinite pool of chits, rather than the cardboard game system of restricting the # of 0 and 5 chits the USA can have, or this in case obviously all those 4 value chits, of which there are very few in the cardboard pool until 1941, and they stand good chances of ending up in the USSR/German border neutrality pact pools. I know it was all statistically analyzed ahead of time, but this will remain a possibility in any game, with a flip side of all those 4 value chits listed above being 0 values instead and the USA not passing 1st gear-up until 1942. not limiting the chits puts big spikes in the possibilities, rather than smoothed out curves, and this game is one of those spikes.

If I was the Axis in this game, I would probably consider resigning if the Americans passed War Appropriations in 1940. If I was the Allies, I would graciously accept.

The code looks good, given the random numbers Aaron reports.
    1939:                  // Average = 7040/3017 = 2.333444
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..49: Result := 0;       // 50

        50..959: Result := 1;     // 910

        960..1710: Result := 2;   // 751

        1711..2346: Result := 3;  // 636

        2347..2976: Result := 4;  // 630

        else Result := 5;         // 40
      end;
    end;

    1940:                  // Average = 653/365 = 1.789041
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..9: Result := 0;       // 10

        10..200: Result := 1;    // 191

        201..267: Result := 2;   // 67

        268..329: Result := 3;   // 62

        330..362: Result := 4;   // 33

        else Result := 5;        // 2
      end;
    end;


The 1939 average is high: 35/11 = 3.182 versus the expected 2.333.
The 1940 average (small sample) is fine: 6/3 = 2.000 versus the expected 1.789.

As you can see from the code, drawing 0 or 5 values is quite difficult.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 132
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:27:14 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 18241
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

oh and I dug out some reference files and discovered there are only 6 "4" value chits in the 1939 pool, and none in 1940. in this game by J/F 1940 8 of these chits exist just in the USE pools...

WIF FE has a strong relationship between the Nazi-Soviet pact and US Entry. The only reason that relationship exists is because of the limited number of printed chits (i.e., the cost of printing counters). For example, have you ever thought it strange that the Nazi chits have little United States flags on them?

---

I have no interest in having MWIF perpetrate this non-historical relationship between these two distinct political realities.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 133
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 4:01:45 AM   
paulderynck


Posts: 4149
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

those USE numbers are just plain wacked and I suspect a bug. if it's not a bug, then this is a very bad example of what happens with making an infinite pool of chits, rather than the cardboard game system of restricting the # of 0 and 5 chits the USA can have, or this in case obviously all those 4 value chits, of which there are very few in the cardboard pool until 1941, and they stand good chances of ending up in the USSR/German border neutrality pact pools. I know it was all statistically analyzed ahead of time, but this will remain a possibility in any game, with a flip side of all those 4 value chits listed above being 0 values instead and the USA not passing 1st gear-up until 1942. not limiting the chits puts big spikes in the possibilities, rather than smoothed out curves, and this game is one of those spikes.

If I was the Axis in this game, I would probably consider resigning if the Americans passed War Appropriations in 1940. If I was the Allies, I would graciously accept.

Yep. But the distributions were decided by over 26 million simulations. Admittedly, the US in this game not only drew exceedingly well, they also seem to have always removed low value chits when they lost them. Just because you get one out of one unlikely result you should not draw the conclusion that you will get 100 out of 100.

Of course it is possible in MWiF to get more '4' chits than you could in WiFFE. Once the decision was made to go with an infinite distribution this is a possible outcome, but unlikely.

If a random generator for a 1D10 generates five '10's in a row, are you going to conclude it has a program bug? No. You run 1 million rolls and if the mean is close to 5.5 and the standard deviation is close to 2.87 then you conclude it is working correctly. You don't home in on one possible (although unlikely) sequence of rolls.

Edit: Also looking at the actions I'd say you have some pretty aggressive Axis play in 1939. We all know the average pool value is much higher in 1939 than in 1940 and an Axis side that is over-aggressive is going to see higher US entry than if he waits until 1940. There is an element of that in these figures too.

< Message edited by paulderynck -- 10/29/2011 4:06:21 AM >


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RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 4:10:41 AM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

those USE numbers are just plain wacked and I suspect a bug. if it's not a bug, then this is a very bad example of what happens with making an infinite pool of chits, rather than the cardboard game system of restricting the # of 0 and 5 chits the USA can have, or this in case obviously all those 4 value chits, of which there are very few in the cardboard pool until 1941, and they stand good chances of ending up in the USSR/German border neutrality pact pools. I know it was all statistically analyzed ahead of time, but this will remain a possibility in any game, with a flip side of all those 4 value chits listed above being 0 values instead and the USA not passing 1st gear-up until 1942. not limiting the chits puts big spikes in the possibilities, rather than smoothed out curves, and this game is one of those spikes.

If I was the Axis in this game, I would probably consider resigning if the Americans passed War Appropriations in 1940. If I was the Allies, I would graciously accept.

The code looks good, given the random numbers Aaron reports.
    1939:                  // Average = 7040/3017 = 2.333444
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..49: Result := 0;       // 50

        50..959: Result := 1;     // 910

        960..1710: Result := 2;   // 751

        1711..2346: Result := 3;  // 636

        2347..2976: Result := 4;  // 630

        else Result := 5;         // 40
      end;
    end;

    1940:                  // Average = 653/365 = 1.789041
    begin
      case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
                             TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
        0..9: Result := 0;       // 10

        10..200: Result := 1;    // 191

        201..267: Result := 2;   // 67

        268..329: Result := 3;   // 62

        330..362: Result := 4;   // 33

        else Result := 5;        // 2
      end;
    end;


The 1939 average is high: 35/11 = 3.182 versus the expected 2.333.
The 1940 average (small sample) is fine: 6/3 = 2.000 versus the expected 1.789.

As you can see from the code, drawing 0 or 5 values is quite difficult.

I only listed as far as J/F '40, because Paul only asked about 1939. If you're really interested, I'll dig out the numbers for the rest of '40 so far . . .

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Post #: 135
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 4:18:49 AM   
Red Prince


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quote:

Edit: Also looking at the actions I'd say you have some pretty aggressive Axis play in 1939. We all know the average pool value is much higher in 1939 than in 1940 and an Axis side that is over-aggressive is going to see higher US entry than if he waits until 1940. There is an element of that in these figures too.

Yup. I tend to run my test games with a very aggressive Axis, in order to test a lot of interesting situations that can come up. For example, this game was run aggressively in the Balkans . . . this allowed me to test the alignment of Rumania as a full ally -- and I found a bug, that showed up only in this situation, that skipped over setting up the Rumanian units.
-----
Edit: In fact, it's entirely possible (although I don't remember doing it), that I adjusted some of the 'random numbers' in order to test choosing specific US Entry Options at a certain time. If I did, that would definitely have skewed the numbers. I usually do note it in my running text file if I alter a number like that, but sometimes I don't.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 10/29/2011 4:22:06 AM >


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RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:12:11 PM   
Centuur


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Personally, I think that choosing ANY US entry option shouldn't be done in this situation. Tension levels are so high, that at this moment it is very important not to increase this level at all, since if it is going over 40, you are in trouble. This is especially true, because of the Axis play until now. There aren't a lot of Axis action left which might increase entry levels, apart from a capture of Gibraltar and the DoW on the USSR by the Euroaxis. The Balkans are sorted out by the Axis, and alignment of minors after DoW'ing the USSR doesn't bring a lot of entry (since the die roll is only 3...).
So it might be a good idea to surrender China, if China isn't able to put up a good fight anymore. However: don't do this in 1940! Wait until 1941 (higher US entry chits). If China still has a good punch in them, don't surrender... How many Chinese cities aren't controlled by Japan at this moment (since there isn't an entry hit for cities surrendered by China...)? This should be taken into account when making this decision. It might be possible to clear non essential cities from Chinese troops and withdraw without a fight, thus speeding US entry...  Regarding Gib, I might be tempted to empty the hex in 1941. However: there is one problem: the new home country of France is in Morocco, and there is no Free France (since France has been conquered).
This means that the CW can't have an Axis capture of Gibraltar, because then the German Panzer might roll into Morocco, conquering the French again. This part of the map should be defended as strongly as possible, without endangering the UK.
The UK however, is short of land units...
Building UK land units is top priority, together with not taking any US entry options, until entry levels are looking a lot better. Protecting UK convoys will become a problem, so I hope you've got a lot of CP's in production or unused for UK resource transportation, since you're going to need them.
Of course, in a two player game, as the Axis player, I would be very, very nervous, since the USA has finished all preparations for going to war, and is just waiting to do so. I only see the number of US entry chit's in the entry boxes and I don't know if there are only high numbers in them or those crappy once you've got in reality. As a US player, I would therefore sit back and not choose any US option, since doing so, I will give the Axis the impression, that I only have to wait one or two turns to declare war on them. Building a lot of land units (for compensation by the non building of UK land units) will strengthen this bluff. How long do I have to wait for a Japanese DoW on me? Probably not a long time, since the one thing the Japanese need is the surprise impulse the attack the fleet at Pearl.


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RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:18:38 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Personally, I think that choosing ANY US entry option shouldn't be done in this situation. Tension levels are so high, that at this moment it is very important not to increase this level at all, since if it is going over 40, you are in trouble. This is especially true, because of the Axis play until now. There aren't a lot of Axis action left which might increase entry levels, apart from a capture of Gibraltar and the DoW on the USSR by the Euroaxis. The Balkans are sorted out by the Axis, and alignment of minors after DoW'ing the USSR doesn't bring a lot of entry (since the die roll is only 3...).
So it might be a good idea to surrender China, if China isn't able to put up a good fight anymore. However: don't do this in 1940! Wait until 1941 (higher US entry chits). If China still has a good punch in them, don't surrender... How many Chinese cities aren't controlled by Japan at this moment (since there isn't an entry hit for cities surrendered by China...)? This should be taken into account when making this decision. It might be possible to clear non essential cities from Chinese troops and withdraw without a fight, thus speeding US entry...  Regarding Gib, I might be tempted to empty the hex in 1941. However: there is one problem: the new home country of France is in Morocco, and there is no Free France (since France has been conquered).
This means that the CW can't have an Axis capture of Gibraltar, because then the German Panzer might roll into Morocco, conquering the French again. This part of the map should be defended as strongly as possible, without endangering the UK.
The UK however, is short of land units...
Building UK land units is top priority, together with not taking any US entry options, until entry levels are looking a lot better. Protecting UK convoys will become a problem, so I hope you've got a lot of CP's in production or unused for UK resource transportation, since you're going to need them.
Of course, in a two player game, as the Axis player, I would be very, very nervous, since the USA has finished all preparations for going to war, and is just waiting to do so. I only see the number of US entry chit's in the entry boxes and I don't know if there are only high numbers in them or those crappy once you've got in reality. As a US player, I would therefore sit back and not choose any US option, since doing so, I will give the Axis the impression, that I only have to wait one or two turns to declare war on them. Building a lot of land units (for compensation by the non building of UK land units) will strengthen this bluff. How long do I have to wait for a Japanese DoW on me? Probably not a long time, since the one thing the Japanese need is the surprise impulse the attack the fleet at Pearl.


I've only read half of this so far, but there are so many good points (and things I'd like you to look at), that I just want to let you know that I'll be posting images that should make things much more clear sometime in the next hour.

And now, back to the rest of my reading . . .

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Post #: 138
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:30:02 PM   
Red Prince


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I'll start with something that's easy to show:
quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Of course, in a two player game, as the Axis player, I would be very, very nervous, since the USA has finished all preparations for going to war, and is just waiting to do so. I only see the number of US entry chit's in the entry boxes and I don't know if there are only high numbers in them or those crappy once you've got in reality.

This is true, and though I know you're talking about what the Axis player sees, here's where things stand in mid-N/D '40.




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Post #: 139
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:41:32 PM   
Red Prince


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The situation for the CW in Gibraltar:
quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Regarding Gib, I might be tempted to empty the hex in 1941. However: there is one problem: the new home country of France is in Morocco, and there is no Free France (since France has been conquered).

This means that the CW can't have an Axis capture of Gibraltar, because then the German Panzer might roll into Morocco, conquering the French again. This part of the map should be defended as strongly as possible, without endangering the UK.
The UK however, is short of land units...

I think that the CW can probably put up a fight for more than a few turns. The red arrows show what I plan to do in the next impulse (a Land Action).





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Post #: 140
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:52:23 PM   
Red Prince


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The situation in Communist China:
quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

So it might be a good idea to surrender China, if China isn't able to put up a good fight anymore. However: don't do this in 1940! Wait until 1941 (higher US entry chits). If China still has a good punch in them, don't surrender... How many Chinese cities aren't controlled by Japan at this moment (since there isn't an entry hit for cities surrendered by China...)? This should be taken into account when making this decision. It might be possible to clear non essential cities from Chinese troops and withdraw without a fight, thus speeding US entry... 

As you can see, the Communists are pretty much trapped. There are 5 nearby cities, but only the 2 double-circled cities really need to be taken for conquest.




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Post #: 141
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 2:54:32 PM   
Red Prince


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And in Nationalist China:

I'd say 'punch' is one thing that China does not have. All four cities here need to be taken by Japan, and it'll have to wait at least another turn or two, since taking Kweilin disorganized so many units (including the HQ).
-----
Edit: I forgot to circle one of the cities (where the 5-2 Warlord is sitting), but it probably doesn't absolutely need to be taken for conquest.
-----



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< Message edited by Red Prince -- 10/29/2011 2:56:07 PM >


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Post #: 142
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 3:00:44 PM   
Red Prince


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And, finally, this is what is coming up for reinforcements next turn for all nations. As things stand, the 2 Chinese units you see here are the only units they have on the "production circle".




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Post #: 143
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 5:52:43 PM   
Orm


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I think surrendering China at this point would be a mistake.

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Post #: 144
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 6:05:50 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think surrendering China at this point would be a mistake.

When do you think it should be done, if you think it should be considered at all.

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Post #: 145
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 6:09:48 PM   
brian brian

 

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I well understand that one game does not a rule subsystem make. And I know this decision is water under the bridge, but as the years roll by it gets hard to recall what flowed under that bridge at times.

So it looks as if the bug I was thinking of was in my assumption that those were truly random results. Manipulating the numbers for testing purposes is a very good idea. If that sequence of US entry results came up randomly, it would be astronomically extra-ordinary I think, even with the Axis front loading the process with all the 1939 activity (good weather in Nov/Dec?)

And I think I do see a real bug in that there should not be a separate USE roll for the sequence of Italy DOW France, Italy DOW Greece, and then Germany DOW Greece. The rule is "once per neutral minor country".

I think changing to unlimited chits was a solution in search of a problem. A major part of the re-design of the game in the Final Edition was to eliminate critical luck, I believe I read that in the Designer's Notes. For that reason the game was changed from a d6 system to a d10 system. A further wrinkle was added in 2007, changing the values of the entry chits to reduce the high & low value chits in favor of more middle value chits. The unlimited chit system is a move in the opposite direction for the game. Let's say the US got truly lucky and drew all the "4" chits at once. The unlimited chit system magnifies that luck as the US always has the same chance of pulling more "4" chits, and could also magnify the bad luck of the US pulling all of the "1" chits. There will be more such games in MWIF than in the cardboard game, and may result in players increasing the significance of the USE system in their decisions, which is good strategy for this game actually. But there will also be a few more games where unusual USE results determine the winner perhaps more than the skill of equally matched players.



Thanks Red Prince for all the work and the game reports, etc. It is quite a game you have going, but a game to test what happens when the US passes War Appropriations on the 6th turn of the game is a bit less interesting, just as a game to see what happens if one side always rolls 20 in combats would be dull.

I would add that perhaps in China, I would guess that the Chinese could have benefitted from choosing the Blitz table to conserve units and trade away more space, of which they have a lot, for time. A concept it took me quite a few games of WiF to figure out. I wouldn't surrender them though, the US will be in the war shortly anyway as the 1941 chits come online, and you should just force the Japanese to dig out the last of the Chinese, who should be just fine over the winter now that they don't have anything left to defend in the North Monsoon zone. I would use some Intell points to help increase Partisan activity in China if I were the Allies; those supply lines on the new map get pretty long...

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Post #: 146
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 6:31:22 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I well understand that one game does not a rule subsystem make. And I know this decision is water under the bridge, but as the years roll by it gets hard to recall what flowed under that bridge at times.

So it looks as if the bug I was thinking of was in my assumption that those were truly random results. Manipulating the numbers for testing purposes is a very good idea. If that sequence of US entry results came up randomly, it would be astronomically extra-ordinary I think, even with the Axis front loading the process with all the 1939 activity (good weather in Nov/Dec?)

And I think I do see a real bug in that there should not be a separate USE roll for the sequence of Italy DOW France, Italy DOW Greece, and then Germany DOW Greece. The rule is "once per neutral minor country".

I think changing to unlimited chits was a solution in search of a problem. A major part of the re-design of the game in the Final Edition was to eliminate critical luck, I believe I read that in the Designer's Notes. For that reason the game was changed from a d6 system to a d10 system. A further wrinkle was added in 2007, changing the values of the entry chits to reduce the high & low value chits in favor of more middle value chits. The unlimited chit system is a move in the opposite direction for the game. Let's say the US got truly lucky and drew all the "4" chits at once. The unlimited chit system magnifies that luck as the US always has the same chance of pulling more "4" chits, and could also magnify the bad luck of the US pulling all of the "1" chits. There will be more such games in MWIF than in the cardboard game, and may result in players increasing the significance of the USE system in their decisions, which is good strategy for this game actually. But there will also be a few more games where unusual USE results determine the winner perhaps more than the skill of equally matched players.



Thanks Red Prince for all the work and the game reports, etc. It is quite a game you have going, but a game to test what happens when the US passes War Appropriations on the 6th turn of the game is a bit less interesting, just as a game to see what happens if one side always rolls 20 in combats would be dull.

I would add that perhaps in China, I would guess that the Chinese could have benefitted from choosing the Blitz table to conserve units and trade away more space, of which they have a lot, for time. A concept it took me quite a few games of WiF to figure out. I wouldn't surrender them though, the US will be in the war shortly anyway as the 1941 chits come online, and you should just force the Japanese to dig out the last of the Chinese, who should be just fine over the winter now that they don't have anything left to defend in the North Monsoon zone. I would use some Intell points to help increase Partisan activity in China if I were the Allies; those supply lines on the new map get pretty long...

A few things in response:

1. I don't think I did actually alter the chits selected. I just know that it is possible that I did and didn't record it.

2. The actual purpose of this game I'm running is to see if there are any errors that crop up after 25-35+ consecutive turns are played in a single game. Sometimes this can mean memory leaks, corrupt data getting into the saved game, and other things. For the most part, the tests we run rarely require more than 10-12 turns to complete. I don't actually know if anyone has taken a game all the way from 1939 into the late stages of the game. Thus, this test.

3. I actually made the same argument about the effects of the unlimited-chit system about a month ago as it relates to the additional Chinese cities. I then examined the analysis that was made and did a few calculations of my own. End result -- there are still a few questions that can't possibly be answered until several hundred "real" games have been played, but overall, the system works as intended.

4. Similarly, the critical luck you are talking about is only possible if a player does not take US Entry trends into account when planning his actions. Obviously, this was the case for the Axis in 1939 in this game.

5. I think you're right about the Blitz table in China. I'll probably look up the odds for all of the attacks that were made just to satisfy my curiosity, but when I started testing 6 months ago I was using the 2D10 rules. I wanted to get used to the 1D10 system, so Orm and I ran the Barbarossa AAR using it, and I decided to use it for this game, too. Being unfamiliar with it, I don't always make the right choicee.

6. Intelligence is not part of the game yet, and will not be in the initial release. It will be added as part of a later release.

7. The multiple rolls for DOWs on a single minor are not bugs. It's how it is supposed to be. The only DOW that is rolled only once for US Entry, even though 2 countries are making the DOW is the first Allied DOW on Germany, by France and the CW.

8. You're very welcome . . . I really do enjoy hearing all of the opinions about how a game should be played, and I'm happy to supply whatever information I can that helps the discussions. It's a lot of fun, really.

If I've left anything out, or if I'm completely wrong about something, let me know.

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Post #: 147
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 6:59:53 PM   
brian brian

 

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I watched a game in the pre-2007 distribution of USE chits at the table next to me at WiFCon once. The US drew about 9 "0" or "1" chits in a row through 1940, and couldn't gear up for the first time until the end of 1941, with still a very long way to go on other entry options. Results like that can flow just from the one/turn USE draw, _regardless_ of player decisions. MWiF does use the latest chit distribution totals, so extreme results are still a bit less likely, but are more likely than in the limited chit system.

Yep, armchair WiF is fun, that's for sure.

Perhaps I still need to learn the DOW rules?

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Post #: 148
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 7:11:22 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I watched a game in the pre-2007 distribution of USE chits at the table next to me at WiFCon once. The US drew about 9 "0" or "1" chits in a row through 1940, and couldn't gear up for the first time until the end of 1941, with still a very long way to go on other entry options. Results like that can flow just from the one/turn USE draw, _regardless_ of player decisions. MWiF does use the latest chit distribution totals, so extreme results are still a bit less likely, but are more likely than in the limited chit system.

Wow. That's incredible.

quote:

Yep, armchair WiF is fun, that's for sure.

Perhaps I still need to learn the DOW rules?

Not necessarily. This was actually a subject of discussion on several different occasions, in relation to several different related DOW issues, and a few of them actually went all the way to Harry Rowland to find an answer.

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Post #: 149
RE: Closing the Med - 10/29/2011 7:22:03 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I watched a game in the pre-2007 distribution of USE chits at the table next to me at WiFCon once. The US drew about 9 "0" or "1" chits in a row through 1940, and couldn't gear up for the first time until the end of 1941, with still a very long way to go on other entry options. Results like that can flow just from the one/turn USE draw, _regardless_ of player decisions. MWiF does use the latest chit distribution totals, so extreme results are still a bit less likely, but are more likely than in the limited chit system.

Yep, armchair WiF is fun, that's for sure.

Perhaps I still need to learn the DOW rules?

If it is any consolation, in September I make a bunch of changes to the DOW code based on a discussion of what the rules actually are (suppose to be).

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