janh
Posts: 1140
Joined: 6/12/2007 Status: offline
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton Turn 80 - 90 Trends 88 armaments captured. 93,000 manpower in pool +30,000 214,000 armaments in pool -130,000 Attacks-Wins-LossesRatio 513912 3.25 to 1 Counter AttacksWins-Losses- 49454- Losses from turn 80 to 90 -MenGuns-TanksPlanes GHC251,0004,7521,019480 SHC-424,000-7,5323,563-2,938 OOB difference from turn 80 to 90. GHC+77,000+1000- +600(-50) SHC-+100,000+7,500+3,500+3,000 Ratio of dead is 1.7 to 1 Now that I have allot of data as I do with my game vs Hoooper ( one of the 2 games that helped nerf 1v1=2v1) The Ratio was 2.9 to 1 when I was in forts and 2.6 to 1 when I was retreating during the blizzard. So 1.05 increased loses to Germans attacking and defending. End of story the math just don't lie. http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2847770 I can now say 100% that the ratio was changed during the 1.05 patch for 42 to 43. BUT having said that, looking at Hooopers game and this game with and open mind. I would have to say the impact of armaments and their production + the removal of the 1v1=2v1 rule is having a big effect unless I am missing something. Here is Hoooper vs Pelton Turn 70 - 80 --- Attacks --- Retreats --- Held SHC ---186--- 160 --- 26 GHC --- 45 --- 40 --- 5 Net Hexes - 78 Losses from turn 70 to 80 ------- --- Men --- Guns --- Tanks GHC --- 330,788 --- 9,960 --- 1,315 SHC --- 964,370 --- 15,638 --- 3,985 OOB difference from turn 70 to 80. SHC --- + 696,866 --- + 19,957 --- +360 --- +5998 GHC --- -160,288 --- -3,702 ---+120 --- +120 Looks like you are doing quite well presently. If you contemplate an attack for summer 1943, putting in your new toys, the thought of the Kursk gamble comes up. So the game balance can't be far off since neither your lines nor the statistics of both sides are far off from any benchmark. Now which factor lead you there is more difficult to discern without more comparable games by you and similar opponents. Destroying armaments surely adds problems to the trouble a Soviet player is already facing in reshaping his wreck of an army in 41 to a juggernaut by summer 43 or 44. Then there is also you opponent's style of play, and the numerical manpower question. Yet if I take your arguments about break-even points for pure man losses and growth, I think you also did significant damage to both manpower centers (can't find that data in your AAR so quickly, sorry) and you did some damage to the Red Army in the field. With a <=2:1 ratio in losses (or 1.7:1 if you wish), you can see how impactful the Soviet strategy of strength conservation rather than holding pure ground is for the Soviets in 1941 and 1942. Which is actually quite logic, since you will sooner or later be able to train those men up, get them experience and better weapons if they don't fall. That's what everyone would probably naturally always aim for. This reminds much of how the Soviets "dragged" Napoleon into the depth of Russia and into over-extension instead of fighting for every inch, doesn't it? Also back at that time the Russians didn't falter because of loosing city after city, their European "industry" and manpower etc. I suppose it is among the best things a Soviet player can do as long as his units are rather of poor combat value, and his choice is between loosing territory, and territory and his army as well if he fights too much forward? Same probably will hold true for Axis in later war, though they will have less territory to trade when choosing the ground to make a stand... On the other hand, this argument about loss and consequently net growth rates of both armies means to me that you have to reduce the Soviet Army as long as it is cheaper than 2:1 in Axis losses, i.e. that playing conservative in 1941 isn't the way to go, but rather be very aggressive at much increased own losses and attempt to attack right into snow and then withdraw slowly instead of stopping early and setting up fortified defenses? It is never as cheap to destroy the Soviets as early war... What do you think presently a German player should attempt given your analysis? Looking at the above loss numbers for the Soviets, I have one question though: Hoopers losses as Soviets were tremendous, a net 1Mio men! That was with the 2:1 in place? 2:1 favored the Soviet and allowed to push Axis, albeit at a higher cost in losses. Perhaps after all that rule wasn't that bad in the latter regard: Since players have very good intel on the CV of both sides (rather than more pronounced FOW, or intel errors), they can much better pick fights with good success rates, and both sides can play conservative and only execute the low-loss/risk high-gain attacks rather than floundering badly at regular intervals. So was it that Hooper was just so aggressive that he also performed very costly attacks, or was it 2:1 that induced much higher aggressiveness? Should there be more FOW on detected CV, more variance on outcomes? Should there also be some FOW when looking at own unit stats, especially for units that are isolated from HQs/C&C? I would favor the latter, would make this look less gamey. The highly costly Soviet counterattacks are on thing that for me shapes the early war years of this conflict, much as the desperate forward fighting of Germans and pockets like Stalingrad and Korsun belong to the later war years. However, in most games, neither side seems to push its units as hard to near exhaustion and depletion (neither do I when playing against AI; especially since I at every moment now the moral, strength, capacities of my units accurately, in contrast to a commander and staffs at that time who may have inaccurate or out-dated paper reports, or at times no returns when ordering them around). Part of this may be due to a change in expectation (of players, public, commanders...) today, where a few 10-10 dead in Iraq triggered large responses, while in WW2 that was just a cheap price.
< Message edited by janh -- 11/23/2011 11:12:51 AM >
|