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Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs Nemo)

 
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Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs Nemo) - 6/24/2011 10:14:57 AM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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So, after our last game was botched, we decided to start a new one. This time with me as Japan.

Things are looking omnious, in our mail-conversation Nemo is talking about how fun it will be to play the superior side and how he has never played the superior side in an AAR for several years. I feel rather like a deer caught in headlights.

Oh, well, ours is not to reason why, and all that.

First order of business is to decide what the overall objective is for Japan in this scenario. I believe this is the most important thing to start with. What do I want to achieve? After having set up those objectives, I can then start working out a defensive strategy.


What is the overall objective for Japan?

(i.e what constitutes a victory?)

I believe the object of the game is to avoid defeat for as long as possible. The maximum length of the game is 1,5 years of game-time. Nemo expects a quick victory, and he wants to do it as painful for me as possible. On that basis I have set up the following objectives for me.

1. Survive into 1946 and hold Tokyo.

2. Survive into mid-1946 and hold Tokyo.

3. Survive until game-end and hold Tokyo.

Those three alternatives represents what I will consider a draw, a marginal, and a strategic victory. And that is the standard I will judge the game results against. Losing Tokyo would be super-embarrassing, and a huge victory for Nemo. Im not sure if any player has ever taken/lost Tokyo. So, that is a priority. Having sorted that, all that remains is time really.


What is needed to achieve the objectives?


So, after deciding what the overall objective is, what is required from my defensive stragegy? The threat comes in two flavors, economic and military.
In order to survive into 1946, I must have some form of production still working. Key elements here are HI, fuel and supplies. After that comes aircraft/engines and armaments. I will take a closer look at the economy in a later post.

Military defence is pretty straightforward. I need to use my military force to defeat any invasion of Japan proper. If such an invasion occurs and I cannot dislodge them, I need to delay them long enough to achieve the overall objective.
There are four main defensive areas. Hokkaido, Honshu/Kyushu, Korea and China.

At game start, land forces are:

Hokkaido


2 867 AV
Main combat units consists of 3 Divisions and 6 Bde/Rgts


Honshu/Kyushu

36 076 AV
Main combat units: 64 Div 59 Bde/Rgt


Korea

6 929 AV
16 Divs 10 Bde/Rgt


China

11 201 AV
15 Divs 40 Bde/Rgt

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..
Post #: 1
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 10:38:09 AM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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State of the economy at game start.

Note HI




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_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 2
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 3:04:20 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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A quick tour of the defensive zones.

Defensive zone #1 is fairly easy and straightforward. I must deny him the ability to base aircraft on the airfields on Hokkaido, and I need to protect the industry at Sapporo.

This area starts understrength, and therefore the first priority is to reinforce with troops from Japan. In my game as the allies, I originally intended to invade here.




Bihoro is the most vunerable spot. It is lightly defended at start, is in open ground and has zero fort levels. My plan when I was allies was to land at Shikotan, the open-ground island east of Hokkaido, and at Bihoro. Large armored units would then rush up the coast to Wakkanai. Needless to say, I must plan for an early invasion of Hokkaido. Several divisions from Tokyo will rail north and what remains of the Japanese amphibious ships will meet them to ferry across.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Panzerjaeger Hortlund -- 6/24/2011 3:12:51 PM >


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 3
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 3:24:39 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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Defensive zone #2 - The prize

Well, here is where the game will be won or lost. The two key locations are Tokyo of cource, and Osaka/Kobe. In those two hexes alone more than half of Japans total HI production is concentrated, 5 000 HI.

I expect heavy airbattles over Osaka. If he can shut down HI here, I am in deep trouble. Most of my heavy AAA units are ordered to Osaka, and this is where the cream of my fighter units will be based. I cannot stop him, but I must hurt him when he comes here.

Other than that, there are two alternatives for Nemo. Either he lands somewhere in this defensive zone, or he dont. If he lands, I can throw over 30k AV at him. I really dont fear an invasion here (yet), but if he comes, I will welcome such a move, because he will be playing right into one of my very few remaining strenghts, LCU AV.

I will set a trap here. Perhaps that can lure him in. Although I doubt it. He is usually better than that.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Panzerjaeger Hortlund -- 6/24/2011 3:27:06 PM >


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 4
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 3:34:09 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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Defensive zone #3 - Korea

No particular key location here. If he manages to take Korea and/or Hokkaido, it is pretty much over. Then he will be able to base his fighters and medium bombers in range of everything Ive got = game over. Only a miracle could save me after that. Roughly 600 HI can be found in Korea, so it is not exactly unimportant for my economy either.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 5
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 3:41:54 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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And finally, defensive zone #4 - China.

You might be surprised to find out that Im not going to try to evacuate as much as possible from China. There are three reasons for that.

Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tsingtao.

All those three bases can be upgraded to lvl 9 ports. That is something I very much want to deny him the luxury of having. His best port close to the action is Manila, which starts at lvl 5 and can be upgraded to a 7. After that it is Singapore or Pearl Harbor. Port facilities are few and far between for the allies in this game. I will go to great lenghts to prevent him from getting his hands on such good port facilities for free.

Im actually going to reinforce China from Formosa. I will not give him an inch when it comes to those three hexes.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 6
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 4:04:38 PM   
WLockard


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Why do you feel a level 9 port is worth all that much? He will surely have one or more ARDs and plenty of ARs, AOs and AEs. Any size 7 port will be large enough to rearm any of his ships. With AOs and AEs in any size 1 or larger port he can support a good sized fleet.

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 7
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 5:00:17 PM   
hartwig.modrow

 

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Panzerjäger Hortlund,

great AAR format, very interesting. I like it.

Hartwig

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RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 7:54:52 PM   
d0mbo

 

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So far you are talking defensive only. Do you consider any spoiling attacks?


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RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 8:55:51 PM   
seii taishôgun


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Do you have any of those sub-cows that carry the midget subs? You can probably produce a lot of them... In testing I can use them to "patrol" base ports.

Do you have subs that can deploy mines? It might be fun to seed a few mine fields in hexes that you think he will enter... I guess the mines don't last very long in the open waters but still, if he taps into a few mines where he's not expecting it might make your opponent a little cautious?


ST

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 10
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 9:50:50 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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No midget sub carriers left, lots of mines though, so I can use that. I have a plan for the mines though, will talk more about that later.

I have a couple of surprises Im planning, not sure whether to call them spoiling attack or raids into his SLOCs though. But generally, at this point in time, its defence only. But I might try to catch some of his B29s on the ground. Truth be told, that is where I have the best chance to hurt them.

Lvl 9 ports are worth their weight in gold. Sure he can build up logistic hubs with support ships, but it is never as good as a lvl 9 port, not to mention that you cannot sink a lvl9 port with a lucky portstrike. Not only that, there are not that many lvl 7 ports in the area either. Basically its Takao in Formosa and Swatow, Amoy and Foochow in China.



_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to seii taishôgun)
Post #: 11
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/24/2011 9:59:16 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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Here is where most of my mines will go. I want to prevent him from entering the Sea of Japan. I want to prevent raids, either by CVs or surface combat TFs, it will also put a dent or two in his submarines. Basically I want him to fear these straits more than anything. Im going to put at least 1000 mines in each of those three hexes.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 12
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/25/2011 11:16:46 AM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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State of the airforce.

Since these are the guys that will bear the brunt of the fighting initially, I thought I would do a quick run-down of the Imperial airforce.

Japan starts the game with 3 743 active land-based fighters dispersed in 97 units. In addition to that, there navy has 171 fighters in 8 fighter wings. The reserve pool holds roughly 2 400 fighters, about half of which can be used for anything other than kamikaze missions.

17 of the fighter units are good enough to face the enemy, they have 70 exp or higher. 29 of the units have experience levels between 50-65.

These units will be supported by 804 fighter bombers in 20 units. One of these units have higher than 70 exp, the vast majority have experience levels below 50.

Last, but not least (since these guys will probably have alot of work to do) are the night fighters. Here, 548 aircraft in 22 units will try to keep the night skies clear. Ha ha ha, funny. Well, they will try to disrupt the aim of the night bombers anyway. Three of the units have experience of 65, the rest are below 50.



Here is an overview over how I plan to set up the fighter defences. Yellow are main defensive areas. These will have CAP both day and night. I will also put the best fighter units in these areas. I will also put the FB units here, I see them as bomber killers. Green are secondary defensive areas. These fields will hold alot of fighters, but they will be a 50/50 mix of units in training and 50-60 exp units.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 13
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/25/2011 7:19:00 PM   
traskott

 

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Good luck !!!

You'll need it !!!

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 14
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/26/2011 11:00:43 AM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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Sheeesh this scenario is exhausting in the first few turns. I have now spent 8 hours on the Japanese airforce alone, trying to figure out what units goes where, who gets an upgrade and who dont, where to put the training units, where to fight and where to fake, what to defend and what to sacrifice. After these 7 hours I am about 50% done.


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to traskott)
Post #: 15
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 6/26/2011 7:19:28 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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This is a post stolen from Nemo in his AAR as japan. Im not saying I will follow his lead, but it is a good thing to know what he percieves to be the strong sides of Japan. He knows that I have read the post (I posted in the thread to make sure he knows that) and that should start the mind games. Will I play like him, will I do something different. I can play into this, making him think I will use his tactics against him, forcing him to play against himself...

Japanese Aerial Planning:

Underlying assumptions:
1. Single-engined fighters and cheap purpose-built kamikazes ( modelled in this Armaggedon Mod as being either auto-produced at no HI cost or being produced with spare, obsolete engines ... and thus requiring only 18 HI to produce ) are by far and away the best kamikazes to use.

Why is this?
a. Single-engined fighters can fly high and fast or low and fast, split the CAP, minimise the number of enemy fighters which can intercept them and, if intercepted, manoeuvre and defend themselves somewhat --- all of which increases their chances of making it into attack range without being shot down.

b. Cheap kamikaze planes... While their performance sucks they still use up enemy fighter attacks and every fighter attack used in shooting them down is one less attack to shoot down a more capable plane. Additionally most of the purpose-built planes carry quite large bombs ( 1000+ Kg in the Ohka, 800 Kg in the Ki-115 Tsurugi, 250Kg bombs in the Ki-9 and Willow etc trainers ) which means if they DO break through then they can do some significant damage. They very rarely break through the FlAK though even if they do break through the CAP.


2. IJAAF bombers simply cannot survive when attack CAPed Allied bases/TFs during the daytime. As such they are best used at night where their loss rate will be low enough for the night-bombing raids to constitute live fire training and result in the continual graduation of 70 Skill Ground Bombing Pilots ( for the Ki-264 and a few elite Ki-67 units ).

3. IJNAF bombers are wasted on ground attack missions. In exceptional circumstances where success is absolutely essential ( the strikes on Naha and Naga airbase in the first week ) they can be committed to ground bombing missions. Otherwise they must be reserved for training in rear areas until they have >60 Naval Torpedo Skill at which time they can transition to night-time naval strike missions. Again the rationale is that they simply cannot survive during the daytime

4. The easiest place to kill B-29s is on the ground.

5. In the absence of concentrated fighter sweeps from close range vs mainland Japan the IJAAF and IJNAF can hold against B-29s once sufficient new fighters are being produced. I am eyeing the J7W1 as the best anti-bomber fighter thanks to its centre-line mounted guns ( plus I decided Japan would decide to standardise on 20mm cannon so as to keep their fighters dual-role ( anti-fighter and anti-bomber ). I gave them 1.5 20mm cannon per 30mm cannon mounted so the J7W1 mounts 6 centre-line 20mm cannon now instead of 4 x 30mm cannon. I believe this to be a reasonable swap-out ratio well within volume/weight ratios) while the Ki-94 II should be a good anti-fighter plane thanks to its ceiling and reasonably high speed.

6. Offensive sweeps are not to be tolerated. As much as possible the IJAAF and IJNAF will stay on the defensive and do their best to conserve experienced pilot's lives. Inexperienced pilots will be thrown away by the hundred in kamikaze missions.

7. P-51Hs are superior to anything I have. P-51Hs operating at a range of 20 hexes from their base are so fatigued that my Ki-84rs can handle them on an even footing and N1K5s, J7Ws, Ki-94s can achieve favourable kill ratios.... another argument for taking Okinawa and threatening Iwo Jima.



Expected impact of this force disposition on Allied CV TFs...
Let us assume a ten USN CVs enter the seas around Japan. They will carry 24 Hellcats and 24 Corsairs each. Some may carry F7Fs and F8Fs instead of the Hellcats. I will treat the F7s and F8s as equivalent to the Corsair.. In addition perhaps one in three will carry 24 night-fighting Hellcats. In total assuming a 1/3rd, 2/3rds split between Hellcats and Corsairs ( or Corsair equivalents ) you arrive at a figure of 320 Corsairs and 160 Hellcats as well as, perhaps, 72 night-fighters.

Now, assume that they get hit by 100 Netties or G9Ms per night and begin suffering the occasional torpedo hit to a CA, BB or CV. The 72 night-fighters only kill 5 or 6 bombers per night and the Japanese attacks are continuing apace. The natural reaction is to commit more fighters to the night-time defence of the fleet in order to reduce enemy hits. Let us assume that 60 more Hellcats are drafted in. That leaves 100 for day-time CAP. Already the day-time CAP has suffered a 10% loss ( going from 480 to 420 ).

Then assume that you do a logical split of your daytime CAP, Hellcats down low, Corsairs etc up high. 100 Hellcats down low isn't really enough to intercept a strong low-level kamikaze strike so either the Allies commit Corsair equivalents down low to thicken the CAP OR they accept low-level leakers. The more low-level CAP there is the weaker the high CAP of Corsair equivalents will be and the more high level leakers get through.

So, basically, by making a binary choice ( high or low level CAP ) into a trinary choice ( daytime high, daytime low or night-time CAP ) I hope to split the CAP and get more kamikazes leaking through.



Mainland Defence:
I plan to mix J7Ws and Ki-94s on a roughly 50/50 ratio over mainland Japan with the Ki-94s there to tangle with the P-51s and the J7Ws there to attack the bombers. One thing I learnt from the previous game was that by the time I was ready to upgrade my fighter force the Allies had advanced so far that wasn't useful anymore. One reason behind attacking Okinawa is to buy the time to complete a wholesale upgrade of the IJAAF and IJNAF fighter squadrons. While awaiting these new plans I plan to simply mob the B-29s using even unarmoured planes such as the A6M5 to attack them. I am hoping sufficient numbers will help me swamp the B-29s and achieve a number of kills through the sheer accumulation of small amounts of damage.


Night CAP:
Night CAP is ineffective. One can argue over how realistic that is and over how things might have changed IF Japan had been able to create an integrated air defence network. One way to model this would be to check for radars in nearby bases and give combat bonuses the more contiguous and dense the radar screen is. This would reward players who create such a radar belt whilst not tieing the game into awarding bonus x because it is month y.

I understand though that this is beyond the scope of the game. I am also given to understand that differentiating between the night intercept model of both nations is out of the window ( which is a pity as US night fighter operations were significantly more successful and high-tech than the Japanese efforts ). In any case night CAP is now best used to disrupt bomber streams. This disruption hugely reduces accuracy and is well worth the effort.


Ki-264 As.
By combining ultra-long range recon planes ( Ki-74s, Ki-95s etc ), forward-based Mavis and Emilys as extempore recon operating out of bypassed bases AND sub-based Glens I expect to be able to spook the Allies into rebasing of their B-29s. When maintenance-intensive planes like the B-29 rebase they suffer maintenance damage and fatigue. Both help in reducing their effectiveness in bombing. It may also prove possible to lure the B-29s into rebasing from outside of my range and into the range at which my Ki-264s can attack them.

The Allies will, undoubtedly, prefer to use the B-29s during the daytime. I will, obviously, encourage this by truthfully talking about how difficult they are to turn away from their targets. One thing to realise about daytime bomber raids means that those bombers are all sitting on the ground during the night-time which, if they are within Ki-264 range, is when I'll strike. Even minimal B-29 losses will quickly result in reduced raid numbers as their replacement rate is quite low. If I can cause an early rebasing and then hit the B29s when they are on the ground I should, again, buy time for the changeover to J7Ws and Ki-94s.

I'm also giving some thought to using kamikaze Ki-264As as fighter bait when the USN CVs really come knocking close-in to Japan. A single Ki-264A kamikaze hit should render any CV combat-incapable and if manned by my highest experience Low Naval Skill pilots I would expect a very good hit rate - perhaps as high as 40%. At that rate kamikaze Ki-264As might well be worth the effort and expenditure.


G9Ms.
In extremis I will commit these to launch a daytime attack on Allied CV fleets as a sort of CAP-breacher for follow-on waves. Losses would be massive and that's why the G9M is a one shot weapon. Barring such an extreme situation the G9Ms will simply sit at airbases, biding their time and, perhaps, engaging in occasional night-time raids.


What happens to the Ki-84s, Ki-61s, Ki-44s, A6M5s/7s/8s when the J7W, A7M2 and Ki-94 s replace them?
Simple, they will be pressed into kamikaze service. Why?

Fast kamikazes mean that there will be less time for them to be intercepted.
High altitude means splitting the CAP AND, most importantly, it means the majority of scrambling fighters taking a long, long time to reach intercept altitude.

E.g. Assume a raid spotted at 120nm coming in at 360 knots. That gives a maximum of 20 minutes for the CAP to intervene. The F4U4 will take over 11 minutes to reach about 37,000 feet. This leaves less than 9 minutes for the planes scrambling the instant the raid is spotted to actually intercept. The end result of this is that many of the scrambling planes never intercept and a large portion of the Corsair equivalents are rendered irrelevant. Trigonometry and the technical characteristics of the planes combine to help raids largely defeat CAP.

So, as you can see, high altitude isn't about overflying the CAP, it is about negating large amounts of CAP through the interaction of kamikaze speed, altitude and defending fighter climb rate. The F7 and F8 are better in this regard but even then I would estimate that well over 50% of the possible interceptions are avoided ( many planes don't intercept at all, those which launch the instant the raid is detected only intercept at about the mid-way point of the approach and only those planes already in the air intercept for significantly more than 50% of the ingress ).

The loss of this trigonometry and interaction ( as well as the loss of the CAP-splitting effect of multiple altitudes ) is why the automatic 9,000 feet approach altitude is so disruptive of all Japanese kamikaze attacks from 1108c onward.




_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 16
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/10/2011 8:02:56 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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We have now reached the end of the cease-fire period. Tomorrow will be the first day of combat.



_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 17
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/12/2011 7:19:00 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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First day of the war went to Japan I think.

Imperial Navy
One of my submarines put a torpedo in a CVE just off Luzon. A USN DD squadron raided Hong Kong and sank two stragglers, a CL and a TK. They should have been gone but must have been delayed for some reason.



Imperial Airforce
I did not put up much of a fight. I was expecting having everything including the kitchen sink thrown at my airfields today, so I only put up a single fighter unit over most bases to throw off the aim of the bombers. Surprisingly there were no huge airfield attacks today, and just a handful of fighter sweeps.

50 P-51Hs from Iwo Jima swept Tokyo though, and that was one hex I did not dare not to defend. It cost alot. All in all the USAAF kill ratio today was close to 20-1. The good news though were that two of my fighter types did put up a good fight and went roughly even with the Yanks. My K201s (ie Me 262s) and my Ki-94IIs.

Fighter sweeps today were over Tokyo, Yokohama and Hong Kong. B-29s hit Truk in large numbers but did amazingly little damage. A small detachment of B29s also hit Nagoya, but did little damage.


Imperial Army
Did surprisingly well. US forces invaded Daito Shoto, an island to the southeast of Okinawa. There was no pre-invasion bombardment either from the air or land though, and the attacking forces suffered severe losses. There were also a very large number of transport aircraft damaged by flak. He was dropping paras from Okinawa.

In Luzon, the cut off army units managed to rout a US independent regiment.


Estimated US losses today
2 SS sunk (1 ASW, 1 SS)
2 PF sunk (CD guns)
1 DE sunk (CD guns)
3 APD sunk (CD guns)
1 LCS (L) sunk (CD guns)
1 CVE damaged (Sub)
1 SS damaged (ASW)
1 DD damaged (kamikaze hit)

5 P51H (A2A)
"Dozens" transport aircraft (AAA)

3000 casualties + 300 vehicles lost


Observations/lessons from today
All fighter sweeps went in at max alt.
My kamikaze attacks went through his cap relatively easy. Todays kamikaze strikes were set at 1000 ft while most of his CAP was above 35k.
No strikes today from US medium bombers, and he cannot have used more than half of his B29s.
US CVs are at Daito Shima, that means they can park just offshore Nagasaki tomorrow.
Lots of small probes by light surface combat TFs today around Formosa. He will probably continue with that to interrupt any coastal shipping.






Attachment (1)

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 18
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/12/2011 8:31:22 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

Did surprisingly well. US forces invaded Daito Shoto, an island to the southeast of Okinawa. There was no pre-invasion bombardment either from the air or land though, and the attacking forces suffered severe losses. There were also a very large number of transport aircraft damaged by flak.


From the map, I'm assuming the you still have possession of the base? (Not clear from your entry.)

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Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

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(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 19
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/12/2011 8:41:40 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
From the map, I'm assuming the you still have possession of the base? (Not clear from your entry.)


Yeah, the US shock attack failed spectacularly at 1 to 34 odds.

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The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 20
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/12/2011 9:36:03 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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A small update as to the operational dispositions at the start of hostilities:


Hokkaido


Started with 2 867 AV, is now reinforced to 4 400. I do not think I will add more troops here unless he comes ashore "for real". Also 11 CD units have been brough here to beef up shore defences. The most likely invasion target is protected by 1700 AV and 6 CD units.


Korea

Started with 6 900 AV has recieved some reinforcements from Formosa and China and is now at 7 200. The largest parts of the reinforcements are in the form of aviation support though.



_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 21
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/12/2011 9:40:29 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

State of the economy at game start.

Note HI





And today:





The reason for this disaster is because I forgot to turn off the repair of alot of bombed-out resources, armament and vehicle manpower, light industry etc. I focused too much on aircraft and engines and totally forgot about the others.

Grrr.

Im turning off all naval and merchant production, together with 90% of the armaments and vehicle production. I need to save as much supply and HI as I can and I need one big burst of production in a month or so when the new front-line fighters arrive.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Panzerjaeger Hortlund -- 8/12/2011 9:46:21 PM >


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 22
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/12/2011 10:44:35 PM   
JeffK


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A warning about Nemos comments you posted, within a week you can have 72 fighters on a CV, and I learned in Downfall to drop the Hellcat and fill out with Corsairs and Bearcats. My CVL carried the night fighters.

Therefore his 10 CV (Downfall has 18? available, I dont know in this mod.) with 480 fighters becomes 720, a big increase in his potential.

Add to your list of bases to defend, Shikoku,  A bit central (attackable from both flanks) to invade but the roads lead into central Honshu.

Good Luck, I played Downfall as japan and you take a lot of hurt, your troops are brittle so take AV with a grain of salt,  but its a fun short battle.


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(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 23
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/13/2011 8:42:55 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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A rather depressing turn today. Nemo sent surface raiders deep into the south china sea, all the way up to Korea. That caught some of my tanker convoys. I thought they would make it to the safety of the mine-barrier at Tsushuma, but alas. I believe I lost something close to 10 large tankers today, roughly half of my large capacity tankers.

Another dreadful day in the air. 15-1 losses today. The vast majority came when P47s swept Nagoya again, and that sucked in alot of leaking cap from Gifu just to the north. I had Gifu heavily capped because I want to keep those aircraft factories and the leakers were few, disorganized and lost alot. Unfortunately I lost my first Ki201s and J7W1s in that debacle.

Todays kamikaze attacks were all shot down by CAP. All save one that went in against an unescorted DD TF off Formosa. His CAP is stacked now, so I guess he learned from yesterday too.

Heavy air attacks on Daito Shoto today, disrupted the defenders who saw the forts reduced from 6 to 3. That means the island will probably fall tomorrow. That is unavoidable, but it held out much longer than expected, 3 days to be exact.

His CVs did move, but they are still covering Daito Shoto, also they sent all their attack aircraft to support the ground attack. He doesnt seem to have any fighter CVs, all seem to have their normal airwings.


Estimated allied losses:
3 APD sunk (CD)
2 LCS sunk (CD)
2 PF sunk (CD)
1 DD damaged (Kami)

5 P47s
10 Beaufighter TF.Xs

Lessons from today
Remove all shipping from the south china sea.

Stick with the game-plan, remember that this phase of the game is all about buying time. Only stand and fight where and when I have to. That time and place has not come yet so it is important to resist the urge to try to put up huge CAPs over likely targets or launch massive strikes against his ships.








Edit:
Thoughts for tomorrow
I have decided not to defend anything tomorrow. I will put up some CAP over some targets, but not nearly enough and the units flying will mostly consist of 30-exp wonders.

I simply do not think that I will gain anything from trying to defend this far out this early. Also my R&D have advanced both the J7W1s and the Ki94IIs and I am producing roughly 400 a month of these. That means I will have an airforce flying not-obsolete aircraft in a few weeks. I already have about 100 Ki94IIs avaliable and I will save my best pilots for another month. After that I should be able to defend 2-3 key hexes "for real".

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Panzerjaeger Hortlund -- 8/14/2011 7:07:09 AM >


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to JeffK)
Post #: 24
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/14/2011 9:04:15 AM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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Day 3

Daito Shoto fell today after being obliterated by USAAF heavies. Over 1000 heavy bombers knocked most of the defenders out (about 900 B-29-25 together with 100 B32s and B29Bs). Then an alpha-strike from the US CVs came in with about 250 torpedo bombers.

After that the defenders had 313 unadjusted AV which fell to 50, despite being in supply and behind lvl 3 forts. I suspect the disruption was well into the high 90s for those two units.

Something similar happened in the Philippines where my stragglers on Luzon were hit by over 1 000 bombers (500 DB + 500 TB + 100 LB).


Estimated enemy losses
1 PF sunk (CD)
1 APA sunk (CD)
4 xAK sunk (CD)
1 xAP sunk (CD)
3 SS sunk (ASW + surface action)

2 CL damaged (Boise and Nashville) by kamikazes
1 DD damaged (surface action)

All in all Daito Shoto held out for 3 days and cost the enemy
6 PF
6 APD
1 DE
3 LCS(L)
1 APA
4 xAK
1 xAP
together with rougly 3500 casualties and 400 vehicles.

That is not really a bad result considering I did not commit any additional forces to the defences. Those losses were all from CDs and LCUs.

Air
Big sweep over Nagasaki by 100 P47Ns met no opposition. 100 P51Hs swept Tokyo and met 40-something 30exp-pilots. Nemo must be wondering whats going on. Im going to play into this and make some comments about bad die-rolls or some other reason my fighters did not fly. "Oh, &¤#¤, I forgot to set the fighters to cap at Nagasaki" or some other form of AE-academy-awards-winning acting.

Another big loss for the IJN tankers today. This was expected as I have two convoys that were caught between Formosa and Japan by our ended ceasefire. Another big loss came when 100 B25s found a troop convoy unloading at Moppo in Korea. I lost about half of a division that I had brough from Formosa to Korea. Hurts of cource, but all in all it was just 150 AV of the 30exp-quality. I will not lose the game because of that.

About tomorrow
I am really tempted to try to hit the USN surface combat TFs that are hovering in the narrow straits between Korea and Japan. However, I must try to stay focused. The loss of those 15-20 DDs and 3-4 CLs would mean exactly nothing and it would delay Nemo absolutely not at all.

In order to attack the USN ships, I would have to put 100-200 of my best dive bombers on naval attack, but the attacks would take place inside LRCAP-range from Okinawa, and no one knows where the USN CVs will be tomorrow. With bad luck, I could be sending 200 DBs escorted by 100 fighters into a 1000-plane CVCAP, and that is just pointless at this point in time.

At the same time, I dont need to defend that sea-area because Im not contesting the SLOCs between China and Japan right now. I know I cannot defend them, so why try? Instead I will ship resources from Korea to Japan via the Sea of Japan, where my shipping is protected by the mine-barrier of Tsushima.

There are two hexes I will have to defend tomorrow though, and I will try to mount a serious defence in those two hexes.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Panzerjaeger Hortlund -- 8/14/2011 9:08:54 AM >


_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 25
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/14/2011 8:12:30 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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Overall impression after the first two weeks of the game (three days of combat).

Air
Nothing major has happened yet, what we are seeing is just Nemo probing my defences. This is of cource expected, so Im trying not to show him what Ive got. Instead of defending the obvious targets like Tokyo, Nagoya or Osaka, Im just putting up a bare minimum of fighters (to disrupt bomber aim, in case he should come with the heavies). Judging from comments by Nemo, he is a bit perplexed over the lack of fighters. I am trying to play into this confusion by saying Im worried about the lack of fighter interceptions, that they are highly fatigued and/or baseforces lack good radar. Im saying that I will try to increase CAP percentage to get more fighters into the air. We'll see if he takes that bait. The goal for me here is of cource to make Nemo careless, and give the impression that I cannot put up a good defence in the air.

In the meantime, both Ki94II and J7W1 are now in production. I have withdrawn my best fighter units to safe fields, and at the end of the month I should be able to field about 450 Ki94IIs and 350 J7W1s. In addition to that, I have the G9M and Ki264s, roughly 150 of each. All in all, that is not a totally insignificant strike force. Although every day I dont have to use that force is a good day. This game is all about buying time for me, see the first post.

At the current rate, I should have at least 6 months of full aircraft/engine production, that takes us well into 46 and my strategic objectives will be met. So, production is not really an issue right now. Things might change though, as soon as combat heats up, supply consumption will rise and I might have to shut down production.


Navy
Nemo is much more agressive than I expected. I was expecting him to go deep into the east china sea, but not on turn 2, and not without carrier cover. That cost me alot as I missjudged how much time I had to bring the tankers home from China. Other than that though, nothing much has happened. Ive killed some subs, around 10 right now I think, and I have lost alot of merchants. I will not commit anything significant outside the sea of Japan though, at least not until I absolutely have to.






_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 26
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/14/2011 8:26:46 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

Nemo must be wondering whats going on. Im going to play into this and make some comments about bad die-rolls or some other reason my fighters did not fly. "Oh, &¤#¤, I forgot to set the fighters to cap at Nagasaki" or some other form of AE-academy-awards-winning acting.


Once again, ethical dilemmas of disinformation rear their ugly heads. I guess it's a bit more legitimate against Nemo, since he plays psychological games of his own. But I would suggest you write something a little more vague, implying that you forgot something but not being explicit. (e.g. "There are a surprising number of things to take care of even with the Japanese Empire shrunk as it is.")

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

(in reply to Panzerjaeger Hortlund)
Post #: 27
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/14/2011 8:46:59 PM   
Panzerjaeger Hortlund


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
Once again, ethical dilemmas of disinformation rear their ugly heads. I guess it's a bit more legitimate against Nemo, since he plays psychological games of his own. But I would suggest you write something a little more vague, implying that you forgot something but not being explicit. (e.g. "There are a surprising number of things to take care of even with the Japanese Empire shrunk as it is.")


Nah, as you say, the game is against Nemo, and the mind-games are half the fun. He is much better at them than me even. In this game, psyops is part of the strategy. Not that I have him fooled with my little act, he suspects that Im holding back my fighters and said in his latest email that he will start bombing my HI centers now. That is a good way to force me to fight...

_____________________________

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close.
In its place we are entering a period of consequences..

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 28
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/14/2011 8:48:12 PM   
PaxMondo


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Actually, playing Downfall scenario myself right now, it seems as busy as the GC with all of the units to manage. In particular all of the air groups.

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Pax

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Post #: 29
RE: Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs... - 8/14/2011 8:48:43 PM   
Chickenboy


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Following this AAR with interest, PH.

WRT Nemo's initial dispositions and attacks, assume that he has loaded up the scenario from the Japanese side and has an excellent idea what your individual base strengths, weaknesses and dispositions are at day 0. I assume that there were no overt statements about players not doing this prior to the onset of hostilities? I'd assume that he has near clarivoyance or omniscience about Japanese dispositions for the time being.

Thus, those tankers shouldn't be a surprise to him or you-assuming his familiarity with the initial OOB and dispositions-he knew what a juicy target it was and acted accordingly with his surfeit of naval forces. Similarly, he would know precisely what AAA you had on your base that just got plastered and been able to work around it.

As far as the head games go, forget it. That only works if you place any credence in communications with him for the scenario. Assume all that is in writing (other than "here's the turn") is an effort to sow disinformation. Say what you will for your replies, but they will be unlikely to bear fruit if you expect to affect his attitude or approach to the game. I'd recommend keeping communications on point and effectively ignore his queries or protestations. You don't have to lie, but you also don't need to play headgames in order to exchange turns.

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