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RE: Early war strategy for Allies

 
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RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/17/2013 5:15:09 PM   
Wirraway_Ace


Posts: 1143
Joined: 10/8/2007
From: Briz Vegas
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

We have debated this before. I merely point out it is a game that pits a minor industrial power against the World's major industrial power, the World's most populous country, a preeminant naval power and a host of Allies. That the Japanese chose to make war in these circumstances does not change the nature of the game in my view. I do recommend some constraints to Japanese research in PDU on games. I limit myself to research models of aircraft sequentually and each model must be built and used in combat.

< Message edited by Wirraway_Ace -- 4/17/2013 5:16:10 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 91
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/17/2013 5:29:02 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8043
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.



So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!


There's always a math geek . . .

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 92
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/17/2013 5:33:59 PM   
Wirraway_Ace


Posts: 1143
Joined: 10/8/2007
From: Briz Vegas
Status: offline
To be clearer, the only strategy I consider as an Allied player is how to make the early war fun enough for the Japanese player so he will be willing to play the 43-45 meatgrinder. It is a game, and it must be fun for both players or it will not continue...

Mike

(in reply to Wirraway_Ace)
Post #: 93
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/17/2013 5:37:16 PM   
Wirraway_Ace


Posts: 1143
Joined: 10/8/2007
From: Briz Vegas
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.



So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!


There's always a math geek . . .

If I read the instructions correctly, Canoerebel only does one of those three options less than a third of the time.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 94
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/17/2013 5:43:56 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 2077
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.



So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!


There's always a math geek . . .

If I read the instructions correctly, Canoerebel only does one of those three options less than a third of the time.


He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.


It's not often that I get to break out the math (what fun!), whether in life or in this game, so I suppose the label is appropriate.

(in reply to Wirraway_Ace)
Post #: 95
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/18/2013 3:27:08 AM   
erstad

 

Posts: 1913
Joined: 8/3/2004
From: Midwest USA
Status: offline
quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.


Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours

< Message edited by erstad -- 4/18/2013 3:29:26 AM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 96
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/18/2013 1:37:10 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8043
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.


Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours


This History major says CR misspoke., He meant a twenty-ONE-sided die. So, do it all again, please.

Show your work.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to erstad)
Post #: 97
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/18/2013 2:51:57 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 2077
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.


Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours



I didn't take into account any of the other results as only a roll of 3, 6, or 9 will give a valid result on his list. The probability that he rolls a 3, 6, or 9 on a 20-sided die is 3/20 or 15%. Therefore, he will not play any games 85% of the time on any given roll. However, since he rolls 3 times we need to evaluate .85^3, which is 61.4125% of the time. 1 - .614125 = .385875. I don't want to work out the individual probabilities, but shouldn't they all add up to that 38.5875%?

(in reply to erstad)
Post #: 98
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/18/2013 3:12:20 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 9768
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 99
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/18/2013 3:18:33 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 2587
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline
I have not seen the discussion on the variation of scenario's and home rules. I might propose that the Moose's knife fight game scenario #2 is a much different strategy than one with the stardard homes rules to try and fix WitP. [No 4E's below 10,000 .. or the greyjpy game of 20,000, no 4E ground attacks etc ..] Then there is scenario #1 where the Boise is an interesting intervention and the Allies find the inevitable hole early ...

_____________________________

Patients and providers of healthcare win with interprofessional practice http://ipep.arizona.edu/blog

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 100
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/18/2013 4:10:04 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8043
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I have not seen the discussion on the variation of scenario's and home rules. I might propose that the Moose's knife fight game scenario #2 is a much different strategy than one with the stardard homes rules to try and fix WitP. [No 4E's below 10,000 .. or the greyjpy game of 20,000, no 4E ground attacks etc ..] Then there is scenario #1 where the Boise is an interesting intervention and the Allies find the inevitable hole early ...


Let me just add that "my" game is "our" game. Mike, aka 1EyedJacks, agreed to my proposal and has played the game straight up. No whining, doing innovative things to match my attempts to do the same. Neither of us has uttered "gamey" or needed to. And I have bombed with 4Es from 1000 feet to 30,000.

You don't need HRs to have a fine game. You just need a fine opponent.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 101
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/18/2013 7:54:45 PM   
packerpete

 

Posts: 115
Joined: 2/27/2010
Status: offline
I believe I something along these lines before. Reluctant Admiral, Home Rule, or Referee'd thread maybe. Anyway, I love this idea and would like to see the options expanded on and stickied.

(in reply to Wirraway_Ace)
Post #: 102
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/19/2013 2:18:17 AM   
erstad

 

Posts: 1913
Joined: 8/3/2004
From: Midwest USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.


Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours



I didn't take into account any of the other results as only a roll of 3, 6, or 9 will give a valid result on his list. The probability that he rolls a 3, 6, or 9 on a 20-sided die is 3/20 or 15%. Therefore, he will not play any games 85% of the time on any given roll. However, since he rolls 3 times we need to evaluate .85^3, which is 61.4125% of the time. 1 - .614125 = .385875. I don't want to work out the individual probabilities, but shouldn't they all add up to that 38.5875%?


You would be correct if he used any 3, 6, or 9. However, at least as I understood the description, he uses the largest multiple of 3 he rolled. So if he rolled a 9, but then later rolled a 15, the 15 would be used and as there is no entry 15 he would apply not be a variant. So not all 3, 6, and 9 rolls will result in a variant, again to my understanding of the method that I'm quite certain Canoerebel rigorously applies to all his games.

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 103
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/19/2013 4:13:50 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 2077
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: erstad

quote:

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.


Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours



I didn't take into account any of the other results as only a roll of 3, 6, or 9 will give a valid result on his list. The probability that he rolls a 3, 6, or 9 on a 20-sided die is 3/20 or 15%. Therefore, he will not play any games 85% of the time on any given roll. However, since he rolls 3 times we need to evaluate .85^3, which is 61.4125% of the time. 1 - .614125 = .385875. I don't want to work out the individual probabilities, but shouldn't they all add up to that 38.5875%?


You would be correct if he used any 3, 6, or 9. However, at least as I understood the description, he uses the largest multiple of 3 he rolled. So if he rolled a 9, but then later rolled a 15, the 15 would be used and as there is no entry 15 he would apply not be a variant. So not all 3, 6, and 9 rolls will result in a variant, again to my understanding of the method that I'm quite certain Canoerebel rigorously applies to all his games.


Ah ha. There's the difference. Your numbers must be right! Although I could approximate by doing .7^3 instead of .85^3 (it's obviously not accurate, but it's more accurate than my previous).

(in reply to erstad)
Post #: 104
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/19/2013 6:35:48 AM   
erstad

 

Posts: 1913
Joined: 8/3/2004
From: Midwest USA
Status: offline
quote:

This History major says CR misspoke., He meant a twenty-ONE-sided die. So, do it all again, please.

Show your work.


Assuming it is a fair 21 sided die, the modification to the analysis is trivial and is left as an exercise for the reader . But suffice it to say the chances of seeing Miller in his BVDs are reduced somewhat. Which I'm guessing we are all thankful for.

Although how one makes a fair 21 sided die is beyond my ken.


< Message edited by erstad -- 4/19/2013 6:42:54 AM >

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 105
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/19/2013 1:33:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 9768
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
No, I meant a 20-sided dice!

(in reply to erstad)
Post #: 106
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/19/2013 5:22:55 PM   
Wirraway_Ace


Posts: 1143
Joined: 10/8/2007
From: Briz Vegas
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No, I meant a 20-sided dice!

Maybe a 20-sided die? Or did you intend to have three 20-sided dice that you threw at once? I still think my method is simpler, but possibly gives less interesting results...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 107
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/19/2013 9:50:17 PM   
AW1Steve


Posts: 12610
Joined: 3/10/2007
From: ME-FL-NE-IL ?
Status: offline
This is what happens when you let math nerds hijack a thread! They prove chaos theory!

_____________________________

"Geezerhood is a state of mind, attained by being largely out of yours". AW1Steve

(in reply to Wirraway_Ace)
Post #: 108
RE: Early war strategy for Allies - 4/20/2013 12:27:29 AM   
topeverest

 

Posts: 1951
Joined: 10/17/2007
From: Houston, TX - USA
Status: offline
I saw a butterfly flapping its wings last night, and it rained like hell today. I think thats proof enough!

_____________________________

Andy M

(in reply to AW1Steve)
Post #: 109
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