Port Moresby is an important base for the Allies, so rader will adopt one of two plans: (1) contain it and suppress it, or (2) counterinvade and seize it.
He may not have made up his mind yet. He may be sending some units over the Owen Stanleys to do some scouting - perhaps even in enough strength to remain there should he decide, based upon his reconnaissance, to counterinvade. But troops coming over the Owen Stanley's should have massive supply problems. They shouldn't be a threat to the base and its 500 AV unless your own troops are out of supply and badly disrupted.
Japan will be leary of counterinvading at this late date. Sailing a big task force around Milne Bay is a bit daunting, because that means getting close to enemy waters. Plus, landing a big army is a major challenge for Japan this late in the game. So, rader would have to detail the KB to provide CAP and guard against Allied combat TFs, and he would bring the kitchen sink in terms of troops. If his "recon" reports 500 AV, he's likely to bring at least three divisions.
That, in turn, would be a lengthy and large commitment, tying down his assets for weeks or months. He may be willing to, or he may conclude that the containment policy suits him.
would be a lengthy and large commitment, tying down his assets for weeks or months. He may be willing to, or he may conclude that the containment policy suits him.
I fully agree. But for sure he's concerned about PM. Those units prepping for Lunga and diverting to Buna are a clear evidence of these concerns imho. And, as i said, if he brings everything to PM, i'll invade Tarawa and Abenama with all my assets. He cannot be everywhere...
Now the goal is to make my CVs reach PH without being spotted....