Matrix Games Forums

Battle Academy 2 is out now on iPad!A closer look at rockets in Space Program ManagerDeal of the Week - Pride of NationsA new update for Piercing Fortress EuropaNew screenshots for War in the West!Pike & Shot is now available!Server Maintenance Battle Academy 2 gets updated!Deal of the Week: Advanced Tactics Gold Ask Buzz Aldrin!
Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> After Action Reports >> RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY Page: <<   < prev  129 130 [131] 132 133   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 11/30/2011 10:57:27 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Mar 30, 31 1944

A very slow and quiet turn.
Nothing happened.

Rader keeps on re-organizing and he's sending at least 4 Infantry units to Okkaido, while his planes are clearly organizing outside my view.

Now all my AFs are operative. Shikuka has been conquered without shooting a single bullet (empty) and our engineers already built its AF to level 3. Shikotan AF reached lvl 1 and fighters have already been based in these two bases.
Now My CVs are back to their full operativity, having taken back all their airgroups (now my LBA fighters squadrons are finally online.

At Bihoro i've divided my army into 3 different Corps.
4 Divisions and 4 Tanks Units, along with the Tenth Army HQ are marching towards Sapporo, while 2 divisions are moving north and 2 south.
I've dispatched 3 more divisions and 5 more tank units to be sent to Okkaido, leaving behind at least 1000 AVs in each of my major bases anyway...just in case.
Forts are getting up easily everywhere and i sincerly do not fear a counterlanding...

I have 5 more divisions ready to be shipped to the Theatre, and many more Eng Units, base forces and aircrafts.

Rader just remined my of our HR about Strat Bombing... it must be <20,000 ft...

Still no Kamikazes...

He's clearly waiting to mass his bombers in the mother of all air battles. I need to be ready.

More news as i recieve the turn...


(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 3901
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 11/30/2011 11:08:25 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: dekwik

much as I applaud GJ for an excellent AAR and a tremendous and audacious move, he is about the only person in the forum who seems to have anything good to say about Rader.

Now Rader may not be prolific on the AAR front, but he is a good half of the equation in this great conflict, and I think the fat lady isn't close to singing yet. Ultimately of course, Japan goes down in flames, but every JFB knows that. It's just when and how.

Of course there's plenty of fodder for "coulda woulda shoulda." But if GJ had been an experienced player (instead of a fast learning newb) Rader's swift China supression and India invasion and HI harvesting, combined with opposition to allied production in the only area he can compete (airframes) would have been applauded as a strategic master piece. Up there on a pedestal with PZB's AAR (admittedly in vanilla AE and not 2)

I can't understand the criticism that Rader is only a tactical player. The opposite seems true. His strategy seems to be well thought out and consistently executed. If anything I would say his tactics (over commitment of units in certain theaters, under commited in others, staying too long and strong in India, over aggression in some circumstances) are sometimes a bit short.

In any case hats ofF to GJ. But let's not sell Rader short.


I totally agree with you. and not only because If Rader was a Top player i would be a better one than i really am...but if you think about what Rader has done in the first 2 years...and how he has developed a well thought plan, i really think we all must give him more credit.
Overall he nearly kicked the brits out of the conflict!

And, i'm sorry to say, probably if i listened to those many voices (and there isn't really a polemic tone here, mind you) who were calling for an abbandoning of Karachi early on and a concentration on Bombay, i really think Rader would have succeed in sending the brits back to UK by the end of 1943.

jhe made some mistakes, true. Not invading Karachi by sea...the failed invasion of Tulagi...the failed invasion of Shemyawhatever island in the Aleutinas...and this one... but he has done really something special till those moments!

Despite what most of you think, i still believe that the conquest of China was more of a Rader's masterpiece than a failure of mine. Committing all those unrestricted divisions to China, moving from on the Harbin vector, instead of going for the DEI/Malaya and the massive use of his air power to early crash any chinese resistance are something that evert JFB should study and understand...imho.

(in reply to dekwik)
Post #: 3902
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 11/30/2011 11:14:27 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Forgot to say that we started to reduce Toyohara with 100 SDBs from etorofu and Bihoro. First of all i wanna that AF closed. Secondly i'm planning to send there 2 reinforced elite divisions to deal with the 9,000 japanese garrison present there...

I totally agree about the need to secure my supply routes. If i manage to secure my bases only with the LBA and surface forces (my goal), then my CV/CVE fleet will be able both to escort my convoys and to threaten the flank of this new japanese inner (and littler) perimeter.

Now i only need to create a mutual supporting chain of bases with AFs not overstacked, fully supplied and with radars and air HQs in range.

For the moment i have 1 Air HQ (5 range) at Uruppu (covering Etorofu and Shimushiri) and 2 Air HQs at Bihoro. One more will be sent to Shukuka asap.


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3903
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 11/30/2011 11:35:44 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 7237
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
Yep Rader has fought an excellent campaign. Total command of industry, resources and production. I think he just got caught napping here. (Well, dead drunk in the gutter more than napping ) But we are all capable of this kind of error. He underestimated his opponent. But he is not the only one following this thread who did. Including me. Victory disease.....

< Message edited by crsutton -- 11/30/2011 11:37:07 PM >


_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3904
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 11/30/2011 11:41:17 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 1938
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Rader just remined my of our HR about Strat Bombing... it must be <20,000 ft...

Woops, read that wrong. Above 20k, for the whole game? Looks like someone got beaten up by Strategic bombing in his last game. That's not a house rule, that's a pre-nup!

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 12/1/2011 1:20:05 AM >


_____________________________

The last thing I want to do is hurt you. But it’s still on the list.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3905
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 12:39:09 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5807
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline
3 quick points re: the strategic assessment/issues:

1. There's absolutely no excuse for not providing more of a garrison for the northern islands and certainly not for having no naval search there.. Failing to make such elementary preparations along a "shortest route" axis to your vitals is incompatible with good strategic play.

2. Flash and sturm and drang aren't signs of good strategic play. There are players here who are flashy or mount eye-popping operations who have no strategic nous at all.

3. For Rader to leave the northern route so unprotected isn't a minor or moderate oversight. It is a fundamental, massive one. It needs to be recognised as such and excuses or minimisation need to be abandoned. His CHinese invasion etc need to be viewed through the prism of almost totally ineffectual command by GJ at that time. GJ has learnt but at that time even the AI would have offered better resistance and Rader's efforts do need to be viewed in that perspective.


In terms of this game:
1. Taking 3 islands in the Kuriles was operational. Transitioning it into the strategic occured with Phase 2 invasions of Hokkaido proper.

2. Rader is unlikely to be able to counter-invade. He would need to suppress the multiple Allied airfields in order to get xAPs and xAKs into place and would suffer heavily in so doing. His better option is simply to flood across the straits from mainland Japan to Hokkaido using Barges. He could easily move a division a day ( minus heavy artillery ) with sufficient barges. I have done that in some of my games. DD raids into those waters would be sufficient to prevent much of this - albeit that there would be a cost in DDs hitting mines.

3. I presume your HRs limit strategic bombing to greater than 20,000 feet. There are two ploys here which would have significant benefit:
a) Examination of your HRs to check whether this also applies to dive-bombers etc? Even if it does the simple maths of numbers of torpedo and dive-bombers dropping bombs would help thicken any strategic bombing offensive. If the factories are in range I wouldn't be picky about whether I hit them with four-engined, twin-engined or single-engined bombers.

b) there may be some benefit in hitting 3 airfields one day, closing them all, forcing him to split his LRCAP between all three ( plus the significant fighter losses on the ground ) and then bombing his fighter factories at one of those bases the next day.

4. Right now his critical weakness is his ability to continue producing fighters. Assuming an HI and engine bank the best way to reduce fighter production is to hit his fighter airframe factories. Once he runs out of fighters his ability to defend against additional raids will disappear and you can strat bomb at will.

So, right now HI bombing etc etc won't achieve strategically decisive results ( giving you freedom of action in terms of strategic bombing and bringing in resupply to the Kuriles ) nearly as quickly as going after fighter airframe production. That should be your focus ( + only as many airfield strikes as necessary to attrit airframes and keep your losses down ).


If you do it right he shouldn't be able to produce more than 100 fighters a month in 1 to 2 months time and his collapse will quickly follow. His divisions from India are meaningless if all the ships carrying them are sunk for lack of CAP, as is KB etc etc.

Right now GJ you can have this game last if you lose focus. If you don't then, really, 1 to 2 months should see it done. 1 month with laser-like focus, 2 months if you get a little distracted.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 3906
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 1:31:58 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Finished the turn...owh....sooooo longggg....

Ok, it's very late and i'm falling asleep...so i'll comment on Nemo's and others' posts tomorrow morning.

For the moment i leave you this map.

I'm sniffing that tomorrow there are going to be LOTS of air battles...so be ready guys

I've done my best to put my most precious assets into safety and, at the same time, to leave some good bait for his upcoming raids (some juicy old BBs at Uruppu for example).
I've placed a total of 1300 fighters throughout my major bases, while my CVs are still guarded by their normal fighter units.
Rader will probably sweep a lot tomorrow...but when set on naval bombing his bombers cannot be directed exactly where he wants...so we may get some lucky shots
And if he doesn't sweep....well, i foresee a slaughterhouse!

In Okkaido we're advancing at good speed. Tomorrow we'll bomb the hell out of Ashagigawa (whatever) garrison and we'll shock attack with 3 tank units. If everything goes well we could be at the very gates of Sapporo within a week.
100 4Es will start suppressing those pesky eastern Kuriles Islands...i want them closed within the next week. Will use 4Es and BBs...

Now i need to start bleeding him out, watching not to lose too many ships in the process...







Attachment (1)

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 3907
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 3:52:40 AM   
dekwik


Posts: 84
Joined: 9/22/2007
From: Atlanta
Status: offline
There's a lot that's accurate in what Nemo says. I can't argue that black is white in terms of his operational mistakes. But I think we overlook three things too quickly:

Most of our forum thought Rader made a mistake by abandoning India too early. I'm guessing he already felt way too extended and vulnerable to exactly this kind a deep strike. Just not soon enough. And he probably thought it would be the Marianas, PI, Borneo, or Sumatra etc.....

GJ implemented a very good operation. Not many of us expected the audacity of what he did, so we might forgive Rader the same level of underestimation.

Would six divisions deployed in the right places against this attack have stopped GJ? Would better naval search have stopped it? Hurt it, yes. But probably not stopped it. It would have made it more expensive for the allies though, certainly. Knowing where the KB was helped GJ a lot, as others have pointed out.

This all makes for a really interesting AAR. Rader used a really aggressive plan. GJ has reacted with an equally aggressive riposte. Bravissimo!






(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 3908
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 5:01:24 AM   
JeffK


Posts: 5195
Joined: 1/26/2005
From: Back in the Office, Can I get my tin hut back!
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

crsutton's tongue in cheek post reminds me of a British officer captured by the Afrika Corps who was shown the 88mm gun that knocked out his tank:

"You can't shoot a tank with an anti-aircraft gun! It isn't Cricket!"




This was actually an American tanker at Kasserine.

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 3909
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 5:30:00 AM   
princep01

 

Posts: 939
Joined: 8/7/2006
From: Texas
Status: offline
Greyjoy (you are no longer, Reek), I am not a "nay-sayer" as that term was used by CR earlier, but I am still awaiting the landing of the other shoe before bestowing knighthood on you. Specifically, the show lands when Rader conducts his first, and probably strongest sustained counterattack on your positions. We shall see. I have no experience with kamikazes and an Allied invasion of this magnitude, but I have observed a certain submarine captain's Downfall game enough to know that things will likely get "Extremely Hairy in a Hurry". To what end? I do not know. But, this I do know. It is going to be grandly fun to watch.

Now, a question: Your landings have all the ear marks of being developed using Deep Battle doctrine. A certain submarine captain with a very "friendly" face is someone whom has commented extensively on Deep Battle doctrine. A question: Did the sea kraken consult heavily with that certain submarine captain in formulating this plan? No points off from you if the answer is affirmative. You executed your plan well and get all the credit for a job well done. However, was this plan formulated by you or dually conceived by the captain and you?

The world wonders?

princepBolton (man, I am glad you are on my side:)

(in reply to JeffK)
Post #: 3910
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 6:11:11 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8625
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Rader just remined my of our HR about Strat Bombing... it must be <20,000 ft...

Woops, read that wrong. Above 20k, for the whole game? Looks like someone got beaten up by Strategic bombing in his last game. That's not a house rule, that's a pre-nup!


Yep, if true, ridiculous, especially at night in anti-Manpower strikes.



_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 3911
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 6:22:57 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8625
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

3. I presume your HRs limit strategic bombing to greater than 20,000 feet. There are two ploys here which would have significant benefit:
a) Examination of your HRs to check whether this also applies to dive-bombers etc? Even if it does the simple maths of numbers of torpedo and dive-bombers dropping bombs would help thicken any strategic bombing offensive. If the factories are in range I wouldn't be picky about whether I hit them with four-engined, twin-engined or single-engined bombers.

4. Right now his critical weakness is his ability to continue producing fighters. Assuming an HI and engine bank the best way to reduce fighter production is to hit his fighter airframe factories. Once he runs out of fighters his ability to defend against additional raids will disappear and you can strat bomb at will.

So, right now HI bombing etc etc won't achieve strategically decisive results ( giving you freedom of action in terms of strategic bombing and bringing in resupply to the Kuriles ) nearly as quickly as going after fighter airframe production. That should be your focus ( + only as many airfield strikes as necessary to attrit airframes and keep your losses down ).


If you do it right he shouldn't be able to produce more than 100 fighters a month in 1 to 2 months time and his collapse will quickly follow. His divisions from India are meaningless if all the ships carrying them are sunk for lack of CAP, as is KB etc etc.

Right now GJ you can have this game last if you lose focus. If you don't then, really, 1 to 2 months should see it done. 1 month with laser-like focus, 2 months if you get a little distracted.


It's too late for me to re-launch the game and count a bunch of hexes, but without B-29s in numbers yet I would have to carefully check ranges from the northern bases GJ owns to the majority of airframe factories. Certainly some are in range, but long range. That will lead to pilot fatigue, ops losses, and downtime. I would quesiton your 1-2 month timeframe on that basis. Even with 300-400 B-29s it's difficult to get more than 40-50 points of factory damage per day if there is flak and fighters plus bad weather, and coordinaiton is a bear. Having to bomb from 20k feet+ is also going to slow things down.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 3912
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 6:52:29 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
April 1, 2 1944

Just a quick update before going to work...

After a carpet bombing made by 150 Mitchells from Bihoro, preceded by a sweep made by 130 Corsairs, the allied tank corp pushed out of Ashigawa (whatever) a japanese division in a great shock attack.
Now we are at the very gates if Sapporo and the enemy seems to be retreating and creating a safe defensive positions on the woody road west of Sapporo.

No big aerial battle occurred. Just a couple of skirmish between my escorted bombers and his leaky CAP over Sapporo when my stupid captains decided it was a smart idea, once the enemy had been pushed back to Sapporo, to keep attacking him despite i never gave that order...
What i thought were Kamikaze bases (eastern Kuriles) were in reality patrol-plane bases....(we bombed the AFs there destroying only Jakes).

No serious opposition encountered till now....very strange.

In the meantime Rader keeps on moving troops to Okkaido...

more to follow...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Asahikawa (121,51)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 2347 troops, 13 guns, 343 vehicles, Assault Value = 261

Defending force 9117 troops, 20 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 280 (and that would be a division!?!?!? no heavy guns...no AA...nothinh...)

Allied adjusted assault: 130

Japanese adjusted defense: 21

Allied assault odds: 6 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Asahikawa !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), op mode(-), leaders(+), disruption(-)
preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
4474 casualties reported
Squads: 97 destroyed, 80 disabled
Non Combat: 58 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 15 (13 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 1



Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
754th Tank Battalion
193rd Tank Battalion
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
5th USMC Tank Battalion

Defending units:
77th Division




(in reply to princep01)
Post #: 3913
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 7:25:01 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

Greyjoy (you are no longer, Reek), I am not a "nay-sayer" as that term was used by CR earlier, but I am still awaiting the landing of the other shoe before bestowing knighthood on you. Specifically, the show lands when Rader conducts his first, and probably strongest sustained counterattack on your positions. We shall see. I have no experience with kamikazes and an Allied invasion of this magnitude, but I have observed a certain submarine captain's Downfall game enough to know that things will likely get "Extremely Hairy in a Hurry". To what end? I do not know. But, this I do know. It is going to be grandly fun to watch.

Now, a question: Your landings have all the ear marks of being developed using Deep Battle doctrine. A certain submarine captain with a very "friendly" face is someone whom has commented extensively on Deep Battle doctrine. A question: Did the sea kraken consult heavily with that certain submarine captain in formulating this plan? No points off from you if the answer is affirmative. You executed your plan well and get all the credit for a job well done. However, was this plan formulated by you or dually conceived by the captain and you?

The world wonders?

princepBolton (man, I am glad you are on my side:)


Hadn't i told you that something bigger than just surviving was getting ready in my "dark room" bolton?

Sincerly, once the plan was already in place and we were loading our armies at PH, i gave little spoilers to some people here on the forum. Nemo was one of them and he was so kind to give me some hints and suggestions. But, running the risk of being too "not-modest", i have to stress that this plan was elaborated in its full extension by myself, in those endless days of darkness of your Terror-Fort cellars

(in reply to princep01)
Post #: 3914
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 8:41:54 AM   
Commander Cody


Posts: 873
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
Notice the op mode negative modifier on the attack above. Methinks he was strying to strat move the 77th Division south.

Cheers,
CC

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3915
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 8:41:57 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Arrived in office....
While i was driving i was thinking about the current situation.

To be honest i do think we achieved a great result with Suddenly Hairy.
We landed in the HI without taking any serious loss (actually the only losses were those 27 xAKs forgotten at Bihoro few turns ago). Our units are in perfect shape and our supply and fuel situation is fine.
We are now expanding in Okkaido and my idea now is to get everything east of Sapporo (with Sapporo included).
Then we will neutralize the 4 bases east of Shimushiri Jima (Onnekotan, Paramushiro etc), plastering them with out 4-2Es.
Toyohara will be invaded soon (Rader is reinforcing it with airlifts).
When Toyohara will be in our hands it will be time to land at Paramushiro and Onnekotan with those units already prepping in the west coast.
Supplies and fuel convoys are getting ready in the US but i have no hurry about them. I can last some good months without the need of any massive supply-convoy.

We have now estabilish a strong LBA air Force in the Kuriles and Okkaido. And it's clear that Rader isn't at ease with the idea of sending his waves against these strongpoints...  He should have done that when we were landing...now that we have the full controll of the skies over our waters he faces the fact that his waves will be slaughtered...



(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3916
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 8:42:50 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Notice the op mode negative modifier on the attack above. Methinks he was strying to strat move the 77th Division south.

Cheers,
CC


Yup...or probably westwards...

(in reply to Commander Cody)
Post #: 3917
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 8:59:46 AM   
SBD

 

Posts: 55
Joined: 2/18/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've already expressed at length my feelings about GJ's performance here - stunning and magnificent.

Surely, there are a few folks out there that think all the glowing congratulations are premature, that rader is going to thrash GJ?  I can just imagine a few folks popping up after rader sinks the entire Allied fleet, downs all aircraft, and boots out the whole Allied army, to say:  "Well, I knew this was going to happen.  All you people congratulating GJ were very premature.  I knew all along this was an exercise in futility."

If any naysayers out there feel that way, I would love to hear them speak up now.  Come on, put your cards on the table where we can see them!

Nah! There can't be any such sentiment out there.  No matter what happens at this point, GJ has achieved victory by achieving total strategic suprirse that let him accomplish what had to be accomplished for him to ultimately prevail.


I think that if the GJ that started this game were transported into this position he would definitely get trashed by Rader's counter-attack. But GJ has become a very competent player. I thought the way he fought in the Solomons was impressive. He spent a day analyzing his Sigint data, found a weakness, & has executed an awesome attack.

I think Rader's a very good player. So why the egregious error? My only guess is that he has probably never played the Allied side much if at all & didn't realize how powerful Allied intelligence can be if analyzed in depth like GJ did. So he thought GJ was blind here & that he could reinforce at his leisure. Perhaps some of the troops that were withdrawing from India were earmarked for this area.

Anyway, Rader's counter should be interesting. I suspect that he may have stashed away a lot of quality pilots for use in his late war fighters so I think the bombing campaign may be difficult. I think GJ has made what will ultimately be the winning move but there's still a lot of game left to be played.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3918
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 9:06:51 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

In terms of this game:

2. Rader is unlikely to be able to counter-invade. He would need to suppress the multiple Allied airfields in order to get xAPs and xAKs into place and would suffer heavily in so doing. His better option is simply to flood across the straits from mainland Japan to Hokkaido using Barges. He could easily move a division a day ( minus heavy artillery ) with sufficient barges. I have done that in some of my games. DD raids into those waters would be sufficient to prevent much of this - albeit that there would be a cost in DDs hitting mines.


I fully agree here. I'm having soon several 9 lvl AFs in the area and any counterinvasion will be facing the cream of my Armies, with hundreds of SDBs, TBs and 2Es ready to strike the landings and with several strong SCTFs ready to come into action. I strongly doubt Rader would be willing to risk everything in an operation like that...
He will flood western Okkaido with divisions...yes. But i will simply place a couple of strong corps, with artillery and tanks, in the wooden hex west of Sapporo and will statlemate him. Having thousands of bombers in several 9 lvl AFs at 1,2 or 3 hexes distant will help me to keep my positions even facing overwhelming infantry numbers.

quote:

3. I presume your HRs limit strategic bombing to greater than 20,000 feet. There are two ploys here which would have significant benefit:
a) Examination of your HRs to check whether this also applies to dive-bombers etc? Even if it does the simple maths of numbers of torpedo and dive-bombers dropping bombs would help thicken any strategic bombing offensive. If the factories are in range I wouldn't be picky about whether I hit them with four-engined, twin-engined or single-engined bombers.

b) there may be some benefit in hitting 3 airfields one day, closing them all, forcing him to split his LRCAP between all three ( plus the significant fighter losses on the ground ) and then bombing his fighter factories at one of those bases the next day.


I think the rule applies to anything that can fly. It says: "strategic bombing allowed above 20k feet".
However what happened at Rabaul 2 weeks ago shows that, even against several AFs containing more than 1000 LBA fighter, a decisive action can penetrate. I will for sure try to suppress more than one AF at a time. The best would be suppressing a whole area and then go the next day against the HI.

quote:

4. Right now his critical weakness is his ability to continue producing fighters. Assuming an HI and engine bank the best way to reduce fighter production is to hit his fighter airframe factories. Once he runs out of fighters his ability to defend against additional raids will disappear and you can strat bomb at will.

So, right now HI bombing etc etc won't achieve strategically decisive results ( giving you freedom of action in terms of strategic bombing and bringing in resupply to the Kuriles ) nearly as quickly as going after fighter airframe production. That should be your focus ( + only as many airfield strikes as necessary to attrit airframes and keep your losses down ).


If you do it right he shouldn't be able to produce more than 100 fighters a month in 1 to 2 months time and his collapse will quickly follow. His divisions from India are meaningless if all the ships carrying them are sunk for lack of CAP, as is KB etc etc.

Right now GJ you can have this game last if you lose focus. If you don't then, really, 1 to 2 months should see it done. 1 month with laser-like focus, 2 months if you get a little distracted.


I know...i really would like to kill his R&R factories...but i will have to wait to become stronger than now before committing to strat bombing deep in his territory. I need to secure my positions first and to end the Okkaido campaign before starting a serious effort against his industry.
The game will last more than 2 months. I can assure you my friend. I don't have the experience to push the blade that deep so fast. I never strat bombed in my whole gaming life, so it will take some attempts before i can master the whole situation.
Moreover i still need to secure my communication lines and to end the first phase of this operation before organize another massive time-consuming strategic operation...

And no, i presume our HR also applies at night. Simply strat bombing must be above 20k...let's accept it.


(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 3919
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 9:26:06 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yep Rader has fought an excellent campaign. Total command of industry, resources and production. I think he just got caught napping here. (Well, dead drunk in the gutter more than napping ) But we are all capable of this kind of error. He underestimated his opponent. But he is not the only one following this thread who did. Including me. Victory disease.....


In a certain way, starting from 1943, i tried to exploit this "victory desease". Even before this operation was thought and organized i thought a lot about how to keep Rader overconfident that i wasn't able to move out of the usual pattern.
Actually the worst thing you can do is to undervaluate your enemy.
Then, when i saw this opportunity, i enanched this philosophy by making actions that suggested that i was going to follow the usual "safe" line of advance.
Rader just told me in his mail that he didn't expect a move like that by me...he said that he thought i was going to advance in Burma with my Huge indian Army (and that's also why i didn't exctract that many forces from India...the feint must have been credible!).

...you know...i must confess that i really feel satisfied...Even if the game is far from being won i'm proud of my learning curve and, even if pride is a capital sin, i confess i'm proud of what i have achieved so far

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 3920
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 9:35:01 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
1st April 1944 situation




Attachment (1)

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3921
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 9:45:10 AM   
obvert


Posts: 7220
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
What is really going to be fun for you, when this is over, (and yes, we can begin to at least speak of it ending, though I know there is more fun to be had here), is when you begin a NEW GC.

My feeling, now that you're a master of offensive strategy and tactics, is that you should try out the dark side! Though I can't wait to play Allies one day, you should consider the learning curve you'll have when you also understand the situation of the Japanese side of the game. It really is a different challenge and quite fun to manage the economy as well. And to have to dictate the first 1 to 2 years of the war is difficult and exciting.


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3922
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 10:01:53 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
No Obvert, thanks, but i'm far from being a master of anything. I learnt a lot, true, but a single positive operation in the bag doesn't make you a master...maybe a decent player, and that's all for the moment.

On the contraty i'm proud of being the author of the 3rd most viewed AAR in the history of this forum

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 3923
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 10:12:15 AM   
Powloon

 

Posts: 108
Joined: 10/12/2006
Status: offline
If he is preparing to stand forward in the wood hex indicated would it be worth prepping some of the reinforcement divisions for Okkaido? If you did an amphib landing here you could potentially isolate a lot of Japanese divisions. Again I'm pretty new to the game so I'm not sure if some monster CD unit lurks there.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3924
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 10:22:24 AM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 851
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

No Obvert, thanks, but i'm far from being a master of anything. I learnt a lot, true, but a single positive operation in the bag doesn't make you a master...maybe a decent player, and that's all for the moment.

On the contraty i'm proud of being the author of the 3rd most viewed AAR in the history of this forum


As you should be.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3925
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 11:36:41 AM   
beppi

 

Posts: 382
Joined: 3/11/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

1st April 1944 situation

<snip the picture>


Ok some assumptions from me. The yellow dots are good targets as you already know. Might be little bit hard to take cause they need preparation but if the bases are taken you completed your harbor north of Hokkaido which makes everything easier including a safe line of approach to bring in reinforcements and supply/fuel.

Regarding to the situation on Hokkaido:

What does the blocking position of Reder tell me?

1.) He does not want to give up Hokkaido, so he expects to do something there. There is not majort advantage of controlling the southern part of Hokkaido with one exception as you already control multiple potential lvl 9 bases there which are more than sufficient to do strat bombing in Japan. The exception is that Reder might plan to dump a huge number of divisions which he is currently bringing from all the controlled Japanese area back to the homeland.

2.) As Nemo already pointed out, as long as he can keep the line between Omitano and Hokkodate open he can transport large number of divisions to Hokkaido with barges. With the number of Nemo (1 division each turn) this is quite fast. Major blocking situation right now is that i do not think that he currently has enough troops in Japan to shift them. So he needs to bring them back first and then barge transport them to Hokkaido. I would expect him to do so but you have still a few weeks time.

3.) The blocking point itself tells something about Reader too. He fears the power of your air force. If you remember his threads and his problems with 4E (especially B-29) nuking his troops in the open the current hex with the main troops from him is the best first choke point 1 hex wide. In addition it is a forrest hex, so no open 4E/2E ground bonus and air attacks are a little bit weaker than in open terrain.
If he would have created a 2Hex defense position (Sapporo and the Base sw of it) at least Sapporo would be a open hex but he would gain a bonus of being able to build forts quite high (question is if he has the time). Usually such a defense position is not bad even if it is 2 Hex wide. He would have a road between the base and you would have to move through open terrain. With the ability to quickly shift troops along the road it is usually quite easy to even defend 2 bases as whenever the attack tries to shift troops to cap one of the bases the defender can move his troops to counter that much quicker.

Push on until you reach his choke point. Use a army large enough to not get kicked out of the hex when you approach and isolate all other approaches to the hex. You can use some small units to approach the choke point hex from the SE and the NE (if NE is moveable) and just change the hexside control to allied. If all 3 exits (NE,SE and E) are allied you can contain him there with a number of troops which is large enough to not getting kicked out (it might be necessary to continually reinforce your troops there as Reader might bring more and more troops) . Then you can either push him out and back to Hokkodate or at least use your air assets (2E do a good job for that, 4E are deadly too if you do not use them in stratbombing) to grind his stacks down with air attacks. That means more or less to move your perimeter into the hex he currently controls. It think it would be easier to defend there.

The ground situation is quite good right now, only threat i see is a massive reinforcement to Hokkaido with 15+ divisions. If you can stop that you have a nice and safe position there from a ground war point of view.


< Message edited by beppi -- 12/1/2011 11:46:10 AM >

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3926
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 11:59:44 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6289
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: beppi

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

1st April 1944 situation

<snip the picture>


Ok some assumptions from me. The yellow dots are good targets as you already know. Might be little bit hard to take cause they need preparation but if the bases are taken you completed your harbor north of Hokkaido which makes everything easier including a safe line of approach to bring in reinforcements and supply/fuel.

Regarding to the situation on Hokkaido:

What does the blocking position of Reder tell me?

1.) He does not want to give up Hokkaido, so he expects to do something there. There is not majort advantage of controlling the southern part of Hokkaido with one exception as you already control multiple potential lvl 9 bases there which are more than sufficient to do strat bombing in Japan. The exception is that Reder might plan to dump a huge number of divisions which he is currently bringing from all the controlled Japanese area back to the homeland.

2.) As Nemo already pointed out, as long as he can keep the line between Omitano and Hokkodate open he can transport large number of divisions to Hokkaido with barges. With the number of Nemo (1 division each turn) this is quite fast. Major blocking situation right now is that i do not think that he currently has enough troops in Japan to shift them. So he needs to bring them back first and then barge transport them to Hokkaido. I would expect him to do so but you have still a few weeks time.

3.) The blocking point itself tells something about Reader too. He fears the power of your air force. If you remember his threads and his problems with 4E (especially B-29) nuking his troops in the open the current hex with the main troops from him is the best first choke point 1 hex wide. In addition it is a forrest hex, so no open 4E/2E ground bonus and air attacks are a little bit weaker than in open terrain.
If he would have created a 2Hex defense position (Sapporo and the Base sw of it) at least Sapporo would be a open hex but he would gain a bonus of being able to build forts quite high (question is if he has the time). Usually such a defense position is not bad even if it is 2 Hex wide. He would have a road between the base and you would have to move through open terrain. With the ability to quickly shift troops along the road it is usually quite easy to even defend 2 bases as whenever the attack tries to shift troops to cap one of the bases the defender can move his troops to counter that much quicker.

Push on until you reach his choke point. Use a army large enough to not get kicked out of the hex when you approach and isolate all other approaches to the hex. You can use some small units to approach the choke point hex from the SE and the NE (if NE is moveable) and just change the hexside control to allied. If all 3 exits (NE,SE and E) are allied you can contain him there with a number of troops which is large enough to not getting kicked out (it might be necessary to continually reinforce your troops there as Reader might bring more and more troops) . Then you can either push him out and back to Hokkodate or at least use your air assets (2E do a good job for that, 4E are deadly too if you do not use them in stratbombing) to grind his stacks down with air attacks. That means more or less to move your perimeter into the hex he currently controls. It think it would be easier to defend there.

The ground situation is quite good right now, only threat i see is a massive reinforcement to Hokkaido with 15+ divisions. If you can stop that you have a nice and safe position there from a ground war point of view.



Beppi, i fully agree with you.
In every single word.
The only point that i see is that in 1944 i do not fear 15 japanese divisions. If i manage, as i wish to do, to get in his choke point with a decent Army (let's say 2000 AVs composed of 1944 upgraded US divisions and Indian 1944 upgraded division) i think i can hold, counting also on my bombers and on forts, a much much stronger army in terms of AVs. Let's say he can bring 10,000 AVs. i think my 2,000 AVs can hold them, thank to their greater relative firepower.
So i don't really see it as a threat.
Same goes for the landings. I have placed CD guns in every single base i conquered. A full reinforced division (say US Div + 1 INF rgt), with 1 Arty unit, 1 CD unit, 2 AA unit and 1 Tank Bn, in range of Army HQs, fully supplied and behind 6 forts can, imho, at this stage (also consider the terrain bonus) hold pretty much everything japan is able to land.
I have PTs, DDs and several huge SCTFs in my controlled waters. Bombers and fighters in numbers.... I really don't see how he can master anything like that.

However i have to admit that i never read Nemo's Downfall AAR...so i better take a deep look at it and see how was he able to push back into the ocean the allies....

(in reply to beppi)
Post #: 3927
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 1:37:21 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 1938
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

I never strat bombed in my whole gaming life, so it will take some attempts before i can master the whole situation.

Respectfully, I believe that you will never master it with the house rule of SB above 20,000 feet. House rules are house rules but this one seems terribly one sided. IRL, The allies achieved quite limited success in the strategic bombing of Japan at high altitudes. When they got low, real low, and switched to night bombing with incendiaries, well, game over. This house rule prevents you from using the Allies single most powerful weapon (yes, including those 2), the firestorm. As this is a house rule, and you are a gentleman, of course it will be observed. However, do any of the other players in the room think that "no strategic bombing below 20,000 feet" is a fair rule to inflict on a new allied player?
thanks

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 12/1/2011 2:04:14 PM >


_____________________________

The last thing I want to do is hurt you. But it’s still on the list.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 3928
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 2:00:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 9776
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Replying to various comments made:

1)  Yes, IJ divisions (posted at critical intervals) could have stopped GJ.  By "could have stopped," I mean it might have stopped him from trying this.  His plan depended on getting ashore and quickly taking major airfields so that LBA could share the duty with carriers.  GJ might have felt entirely different about this if he hadn't been assured of a quick umbrella of LBA.  Rader should have strongly fortified any NoPac base that had a big airfield.  Any base that he couldn't garrison shouldn't have been built up.  Under that scenario - a division behind four to six forts - GJ might not invade; but if he had invaded things would have slowed down considerably, so that rader would have had much more time to organize an effective counterstrike.  Speed was everything here, but rader didn't have any speed bumps.

2) Rader was negligent in leaving NoPac open while he had umpteen divisions committed in New Guinea and other much less important places.   No doubt he had fallen into the trap of underestimating GJ.  After all, GJ was a newb, had nearly lost the western half of the map, and was mired down in a slugging match way off in the Solomons.  So rader got overconfident.  He might have lost interest in the match, as is often the case once a player loses the strategic initiative and is fighting a static or retiring defense.  So he probably wasn't as alert as he would have been against a more experienced opponent.  (Hey, didn't Japan make the same mistake in the real war?)

3) Rader recognized belatedly that he had his India army way out on a limb at a point when the Allies had the ability to mount a very big amphibious assault somewhere important.  I'm sure he was thinking "DEI."  So he finally began to pull back his army, but he waited way too late.  Holding India in 1944 was an extravagance he couldn't afford.

4)  I don't know about the fairness or unfairness of the 20k strat bombing House Rule (I don't have the experience to weigh in on that), but I have seen some things that I thought were over the top in a game against a newb.  One example - marching a huge army across the Owen Stanley mountains (how many divisions?  five?) to take Port Moresby.

5)  Has Suddenly Hairy developed perfectly, or what?  Man, GJ did something here.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 3929
RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY - 12/1/2011 2:02:41 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1622
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: online
Rader was obviously reacting to what he faced in a previous game - where he, himself, led the "a-historical" way by invading the Soviet Union. He can bitch and moan all he wants about Allied aircraft based in Russia, but he started down that road, so tough.

Here, he has been out-played (and I believe he got incredibly cocky as well) - he's already lost, because GJ is going to be able to inflict massive harm just from his current position, especially given the massive amount of material he is poised to receive through the rest of 1944 & all of 1945.

And sure, Rader will be able to transfer large amounts of troops, but will he be able to supply them in the face of GJ's air & sea capabilities? There will be about a month's worth of intense action where Rader will be able to throw everything, including the kitchen sink, into the mix, but after that, his cubboards will be bare - plus he will be abandoning just about everything else on the map (at least in the sea & air) - so GJ should be able to mount multiple offensive operations in the Solomons, DEI & even Southeast Asia, as long as he maintains & expands his current postions in the home islands.

GJ has momentum right now & given the rushed nature of the transport of ground troops Rader is having to throw into the mix (and that most of his core troops were in the DEI or retreating from India - now is a great time to flood the South China Sea & areas around southern Japan with subs as well - since those troops aren't all going to arrive by air), the intact and fresh allied troops that GJ has on line right now should just roll over them for a while - don't let him get prepared - keep hitting him while he's stumbling!

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 3930
Page:   <<   < prev  129 130 [131] 132 133   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> After Action Reports >> RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY Page: <<   < prev  129 130 [131] 132 133   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.172