1st April 1944 situation
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Ok some assumptions from me. The yellow dots are good targets as you already know. Might be little bit hard to take cause they need preparation but if the bases are taken you completed your harbor north of Hokkaido which makes everything easier including a safe line of approach to bring in reinforcements and supply/fuel.
Regarding to the situation on Hokkaido:
What does the blocking position of Reder tell me?
1.) He does not want to give up Hokkaido, so he expects to do something there. There is not majort advantage of controlling the southern part of Hokkaido with one exception as you already control multiple potential lvl 9 bases there which are more than sufficient to do strat bombing in Japan. The exception is that Reder might plan to dump a huge number of divisions which he is currently bringing from all the controlled Japanese area back to the homeland.
2.) As Nemo already pointed out, as long as he can keep the line between Omitano and Hokkodate open he can transport large number of divisions to Hokkaido with barges. With the number of Nemo (1 division each turn) this is quite fast. Major blocking situation right now is that i do not think that he currently has enough troops in Japan to shift them. So he needs to bring them back first and then barge transport them to Hokkaido. I would expect him to do so but you have still a few weeks time.
3.) The blocking point itself tells something about Reader too. He fears the power of your air force. If you remember his threads and his problems with 4E (especially B-29) nuking his troops in the open the current hex with the main troops from him is the best first choke point 1 hex wide. In addition it is a forrest hex, so no open 4E/2E ground bonus and air attacks are a little bit weaker than in open terrain.
If he would have created a 2Hex defense position (Sapporo and the Base sw of it) at least Sapporo would be a open hex but he would gain a bonus of being able to build forts quite high (question is if he has the time). Usually such a defense position is not bad even if it is 2 Hex wide. He would have a road between the base and you would have to move through open terrain. With the ability to quickly shift troops along the road it is usually quite easy to even defend 2 bases as whenever the attack tries to shift troops to cap one of the bases the defender can move his troops to counter that much quicker.
Push on until you reach his choke point. Use a army large enough to not get kicked out of the hex when you approach and isolate all other approaches to the hex. You can use some small units to approach the choke point hex from the SE and the NE (if NE is moveable) and just change the hexside control to allied. If all 3 exits (NE,SE and E) are allied you can contain him there with a number of troops which is large enough to not getting kicked out (it might be necessary to continually reinforce your troops there as Reader might bring more and more troops) . Then you can either push him out and back to Hokkodate or at least use your air assets (2E do a good job for that, 4E are deadly too if you do not use them in stratbombing) to grind his stacks down with air attacks. That means more or less to move your perimeter into the hex he currently controls. It think it would be easier to defend there.
The ground situation is quite good right now, only threat i see is a massive reinforcement to Hokkaido with 15+ divisions. If you can stop that you have a nice and safe position there from a ground war point of view.
Beppi, i fully agree with you.
In every single word.
The only point that i see is that in 1944 i do not fear 15 japanese divisions. If i manage, as i wish to do, to get in his choke point with a decent Army (let's say 2000 AVs composed of 1944 upgraded US divisions and Indian 1944 upgraded division) i think i can hold, counting also on my bombers and on forts, a much much stronger army in terms of AVs. Let's say he can bring 10,000 AVs. i think my 2,000 AVs can hold them, thank to their greater relative firepower.
So i don't really see it as a threat.
Same goes for the landings. I have placed CD guns in every single base i conquered. A full reinforced division (say US Div + 1 INF rgt), with 1 Arty unit, 1 CD unit, 2 AA unit and 1 Tank Bn, in range of Army HQs, fully supplied and behind 6 forts can, imho, at this stage (also consider the terrain bonus) hold pretty much everything japan is able to land.
I have PTs, DDs and several huge SCTFs in my controlled waters. Bombers and fighters in numbers.... I really don't see how he can master anything like that.
However i have to admit that i never read Nemo's Downfall AAR...so i better take a deep look at it and see how was he able to push back into the ocean the allies....