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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

 
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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/14/2012 7:58:57 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
Yeah, unfortunately you hit the nail on the head. I launch a well co-ordinated strike and then hide under the storm, conveniently slipping out to land our returning strike package. While this could happen IRL as the ships dodge into a front or squall, it should be a rare event but in fact is quite common.

We're only one day behind the game in the AAR. Coming in the next post - we put some DD named the Gridley in the crosshairs. Anyone ever heard of it?

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/14/2012 11:22:12 PM >


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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/14/2012 11:23:56 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
I see on the boards that CF has been updating his AAR. What I wouldn't give to read the entries for this week! Hair raising stuff, I imagine. Sigh.

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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/15/2012 2:06:09 PM   
Crackaces


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What I am following in your AAR is how you handle the decision of transitioning to the defense. The game rewards the USN for taking a risk in a very unique way as you very well know each sunk CV will appear in the OOB as a Essex CV just over a year later. So some number of extra Essex class CV's are going to show up in a bunch in the Winter of '43.

My point being that in almost every AAR besides PzB vs. Andy Mac the IJ continue the offensive initiative and then disaster. The IJ are not at all prepared for the onslaught of May '44 and the empire crumbles.

So I will be reading with great interest of where the IJ draw the line and build a defensive ring to hold off the hordes or does the IJ continue to attack until their "Borodino " "Stalingrad" .. Midway ... How will the IJ last until Mar '46? That will be a great read in this AAR as the game matures.

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Post #: 1503
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/15/2012 6:52:32 PM   
Panther Bait


Posts: 507
Joined: 8/30/2006
Status: online
As far as I know, there are no "extra" Essex carriers any more in AE, almost certainly not in 1943.  The "extra" carriers (Yorktown II, etc.) will get delivered whether you lose the original namesakes or not.  The game now allows you to rename them to something else if the originals do not get lost.

Mike

In the original WitP, the Allies actually lost replacement carriers (relative to history) if you didn't lose the originals. For example, if you never lost Yorktown (CV-5), the Allied player never received CV-10 (renamed for Yorktown).  The same thing happened to CV-12 (Hornet), CV-16 (Lexington), or CV-18 (Wasp).

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Post #: 1504
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/16/2012 3:14:59 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

What I am following in your AAR is how you handle the decision of transitioning to the defense. The game rewards the USN for taking a risk in a very unique way as you very well know each sunk CV will appear in the OOB as a Essex CV just over a year later. So some number of extra Essex class CV's are going to show up in a bunch in the Winter of '43.

My point being that in almost every AAR besides PzB vs. Andy Mac the IJ continue the offensive initiative and then disaster. The IJ are not at all prepared for the onslaught of May '44 and the empire crumbles.

So I will be reading with great interest of where the IJ draw the line and build a defensive ring to hold off the hordes or does the IJ continue to attack until their "Borodino " "Stalingrad" .. Midway ... How will the IJ last until Mar '46? That will be a great read in this AAR as the game matures.


Excellent post, IMHO. As you can probably tell, I viewed the China offensive as my "Phase II" and do not plan a strategic level "Phase III" offensive. I think it's important to maintain an active defense, but overextension is folly in the long run for Japan.

In the upcoming strategic analysis post, you will see I have rejected the idea of any grand offensive given the relatively late date for that sort of thing and the lack of a strategically valuable target. The plan is for a limited operational offensive or two with the specific purpose of denying CF an easy avenue along the routes he can use with LBA. Reasoning is that he cannot make a big leap without CV superiority, which he will not have until mid '43 after Torres Islands. Thus, we will make the LBA avenues of approach tough on him.

Note however that the goal in all this is attrition at a favorable rate and delay. We cannot occupy DC to win the war. I agree that often JFBs in my position go whole hog and come up snake eyes. We will not throw away the 8ish months or more that CF has just provided to us by evening the CV odds in an Ill-advised adventure.

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Post #: 1505
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/16/2012 3:20:54 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
October 27, 1942

We will convert a double post into a new update.

Subs

We had no less than six subs waiting for Enterprise in hopes of making her the fourth fleet CV to go down as a result of the Battle of Torres Islands. No joy. An ASW TF with DD Gridley present engages both RO-33 and RO-68. Then RO-33 takes a shot at Gridley! The DD is smoking, and RO-33 has several kills plus a good skipper, so we hope to hit the star of CF's AAR, but no. Both Gridley and the Big E make port. Damn!

4th Fleet

The C Brigade of 20th Division goes ashore in good order at Baker with 100% prep and good supply... And is shattered by the small number of defenders anyway! Ugh. Odds are 1:99, casualties 0(0) vs 2029(172). Needless to say, we will pick them up and withdraw tomorrow. Invading atolls is hard. The enemy had not reinforced much except for engineers, so the Marine Raider Battalion basically handled a crack IJA brigade. This action is a failure and has an impact on Cribtop HQ. No more atoll invasions for me.

SE Fleet

Overzealous Bettys from Munda attack PTs at Ndeni. No hits, but there is no CAP either because the airfield is closed.

Southern Army

Bombing shows the enemy LCU on the move in NW Oz is the 754th Tank Battalion. Looks like a probe after all. We send two more tank regiments to harass the enemy.

15th Army

We sweep and bomb Akyab round the clock, and the base is hit hard. It's not fully closed, buy it's pretty close.

China

11th Division arrives in the 1st Army AO to keep an eye on the three enemy LCUs that recently moved forward. They are ID'd by bombing as an HQ and two corps of starving ChiComs and have ceased moving now. This in turn frees up 1st Armored Division to board trains for Shanghai and, eventually, Burma.

Combined Fleet

We see hordes of TFs, including a big BB SCTF and the Enterprise TF, at Noumea. We begin a sub blockade of the base while Minelayer subs approach. Should MKB visit here after all to try for Ent? Hmmm....



< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/16/2012 4:11:55 AM >


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Post #: 1506
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/16/2012 4:23:54 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
October 28, 1942

Subs

Sailfish torpedoes, and Saury finishes, an empty xAK near Kavieng.

We have established a blockade of Noumea with about 20 subs, Including 5 or 6 Glen boats in strategic locations. Two days until we drop mines there as well.

4th Fleet

We fully re-load the Baker survivors without incident and will withdraw due North tomorrow.

SE Fleet

The Munda Bettys again come for Ndeni's PTs at max range. The enemy is out of gas and dead in the water so we actually sink one. We will alter the range of this group to avoid such wasteful attacks.

Southern Army

We now have a good pipeline of fuel moving from Balikpapan to Truk.

15th Army

Akyab is hit again with nominal effect due to weather. However, the goal of forcing CF to abandon this forward base is fully achieved. Today a second crack IJAAF Oscar group upgrades to Mr. Tojo. We will now assault Imphal, home to 70 enemy fighters.

China

BA at Kukong shows raw AS at 901:1039. Despite this, we will DA tomorrow under a max air effort. The enemy here has been cut off and under daily air attack for two months plus and is probably starving and disrupted. If the attack fails we'll bring in another division.

Combined Fleet

We re-fuel from the now empty fleet Oilers today. MKB will sidle East to hunt anything trying for the retiring Baker force.

Construction

Katha and Lashio make forts 3. Namatanai is now airfield 1 and Buka port 1. The second and third lines are building nicely, and the first line is getting awfully bristly. The progress we make on toughening our defenses may be the biggest impact of the carrier victory.

Just looked at Tracker and Trincomalee made airfield 6, Imphal level 7 and Cooktown level 5. Allied engineers are good at their jobs.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/16/2012 4:29:08 AM >


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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/16/2012 5:25:33 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
October 29, 1942

Subs

We lurk near Noumea. CF sends out an ASW TF but doesn't find us yet. Minelayers will go in tomorrow.

4th Fleet

The Baker TFs retire without interference. A shame really as had CF come for us MKB would have mauled him.

SE Fleet

Lots of re-supply going in to New Guinea and the Solomons now that the coast is clear.

Southern Army

CF is still advancing with the 754th. If he persists we may trap him in a hex. Enemy B-17s come for our reinforcing armor and get good hits. The Nicks will be on station tomorrow.

At Singers, we will load reinforcements for Sabang and Java tomorrow.

15th Army

The enemy recons Prome for the first time.

China

DA Kukong gets a 2:1, casualties 1112(15) vs 625(2). As expected, low supply hurts the six large KMT Corps here. They are doomed.

The enemy up north is either retiring or advancing on Chengting. An attack would be suicide now that 11th Division is on their heels.

5th Fleet

We notice a late season fuel and supply convoy at Umnak and have our Jakes try a Nav attack. CF has moved in a few P-39s and they shoot down 2 Jakes. Worth a shot. Cribtop HQ is worried the enemy is going for a last minute offensive up here, but tomorrow is October 30 and Cribtop Intel doubts it.

Combined Fleet

We loitered near Baker but tomorrow will begin a circuitous route home to Truk for much needed refit.

Construction

Fusan and Pescadores make port level 6. Bataan hits airfield 3. Kalemyo makes level 2 airfield for Cuttlefish.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/16/2012 5:32:59 AM >


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Post #: 1508
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/17/2012 9:49:23 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
Strategic Analysis

October 31, 1942

Friendly Situation

All of Japan's pre-war objectives have been achieved. Namely, we have seized the Southern Resource Area with Oil production 90% intact, established a robust defensive perimeter in the Pacific, isolated China and reduced Chinese controlled territory to an island around Chungking that does not produce enough supply to re-build and support the KMT's defeated armies.

The Battle of the Torres Islands has further shifted the strategic balance in Japan's favor. Three enemy fleet carriers are sunk and one damaged for some months without appreciable damage to Kido Butai in return. This means that the Empire suddenly finds the date of the Allied counteroffensive shifted from "any day now" to, in all probability, the Summer of 1943.

This is a huge boon. What, if anything, do we do with it?

Enemy Situation and Intentions

Cribtop Intel has long assumed a two pronged Allied offensive was in the making. The dominant move would be handled by the Americans in SWPAC, with the anticipated target being the Solomons. A secondary offensive out of Burma by the Commonwealth was also expected.

The Torres Islands result frankly messes this up. Even if he assembles every flat top he has, CF will be outnumbered 2:1 until July '43 or so. Thus, an offensive that requires control of the surrounding seas, even for a short period, is now unachievable without the assumption of enormous risk that KB will show up and ruin the party.

Even though CF is a conservative player, Cribtop Intel doubts he will stand pat for 10 months. He has been on the defensive since December 7 and the sheer boredom must be getting to him. We thus assume that the enemy will be tempted to try an offensive along an avenue of approach that can be supported by LBA.

Intentions and Execution

We are now marching down a well worn path that many JFBs have trod. The common response is to muster forces for one last grand offensive, but it is our opinion this would be folly. Many times the IJN simply puts its head in a noose in early '43 through a combination of increasing capability of the Allied forces and the selection of a target that is not strategically decisive. For example, suppose we risk a lot and seize Fiji or New Caledonia? It's a cool pelt for the trophy wall, but what does this really do for Japan? Nothing, in my opinion. Truly cutting the SLoC to Oz would mean taking Tahiti. Capturing Noumea just moves the SLoC further south and invites overextension.

One target of possible interest is the Line Islands. As PzB and others have shown, taking these bases can result in an unhealthy USN fixation on a single target, with the potential to force further degradation of the enemy's fleet on a battleground of Japan's choosing. However, it is Cribtop Intel's estimate that CF would have secured these islands well by now. We will recon with Glens but probably pass.

What then is left to do? We believe the enemy's options are reduced to those AOs where he can move ahead on the ground or under LBA cover, namely Burma, NW Oz, the Papuan Peninsula (Port Moresby area), the lower Solomons, or NOPAC.

NOPAC will be closed until March, but we will use the Winter to build up supplies, facilities and troop levels. As long as we don't ignore it completely this AO is a sideshow.

NW Oz is deceptively difficult for the Allies. The overland route is hard to supply, while an amphibious campaign via Port Hedland will run into strong IJA defenses and the Imperial Navy.

Thus, we believe some combination of Burma and Operation Cartwheel to be the most likely enemy moves. We will counter as follows.

Burma. Here we will prioritize the deployment of Tojos and try to maintain a favorable air superiority ratio while piling in troops, starting with adding 38th Division and 1st Armored Division to the three plus divisions in theater. We will reinforce Sabang and be ready for raids against Palembang and Singers by increasing air defenses. This is probably all CF can do with his carriers at the moment.

SWPAC. We will build up Lae into a nasty interceptor Base as we expect 4Es to start pounding PM and Milne Bay. In addition, a division or two will begin prep for Ndeni. Capturing Ndeni would impose further delay on the Americans in the lower Solomons and perhaps even force a favorable naval engagement if CF gets impatient.

China. Finally, we will look to continue to starve China and will study an offensive against Kweiyang.

Conclusion

This is perhaps not the most glorious response to the Torres Islands victory, but IMHO it is the correct move. Japan's offensive capabilities are declining vis a vis the Allies, and throwing away the gift of 10 months' delay would be a grave error. If CF can't really get rolling until mid '43, we may keep him at bay for quite some time hence.


< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/17/2012 9:53:19 PM >


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Post #: 1509
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 5:34:16 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
October 30, 1942

Subs

Much of the IJN sub fleet is maintaining an ironclad blockade of Noumea from a distance of 2 hexes. In the blockade line, I-4 is ineffectually DC'd by an enemy ASW TF. We delay the Noumea sub mining Op by 24 hours to allow the subs to approach and withdraw in darkness. Not sure it works like that, but it's worth waiting a day.

In one of the more bizarre sub actions of the war, I-9 is DC'd by escorts of a large convoy, hit several times and forced to the surface. Once there, the big sub actually proves to be a match for the small KVs on duty. The I-boat shells and then torpedoes and sinks both one of the KVs and a big xAK! Banzai! We considered a first person write up, but frankly this was such an odd battle we couldn't really come up with anything plausible to explain it. I-9 is hurt badly and will try to limp to Port Hedland, but even if she sinks she has won glory.

SE Fleet

27 B-24s hit the PM airfield. They appear to be coming from Cooktown. Hmm.

Looks like CF is indeed preparing to move under LBA.

Southern Army

The enemy continues to recon and maneuver armor in NW Oz as though he is mounting an offensive or at least an active probe. Cribtop HQ would love to fight here.

Manila makes level 6 airfield.

Combined Fleet

The Yamato TF is safely tucked into Truk. MKB is close behind but taking an easterly route between Ponape and Eniwetok in hopes of dodging enemy subs no doubt lurking and eager to even the odds.


< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/22/2012 5:36:25 AM >


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RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 6:10:06 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

The C Brigade of 20th Division goes ashore in good order at Baker with 100% prep and good supply... And is shattered by the small number of defenders anyway! Ugh. Odds are 1:99, casualties 0(0) vs 2029(172). Needless to say, we will pick them up and withdraw tomorrow. Invading atolls is hard. The enemy had not reinforced much except for engineers, so the Marine Raider Battalion basically handled a crack IJA brigade. This action is a failure and has an impact on Cribtop HQ. No more atoll invasions for me.




You have drawn the wrong conclusion.

1. Never invade a garrisoned atoll with less than a complete division at least. Invading with only a brigade was a mistake. Would you defend a land frontier using only /A subunits of a division rather than the full parent division? I don't think so, and neither should you attack an atoll so.

2. You have completely overlooked the defensive value provided by non combat units. Just how many of those had been sent to Baker Island? For example 10% of "support squads" of an HQ unit are converted into defensive Assault Value. You therefore faced on Baker Island much more defensive AV than that contained in the Marine battalion. And that is without factoring in whatever the forts might have been, which given the length of time you too to counter invade, might have reached a reasonable level.

3. The fact that you achieved odds of 1:99 on a shock attack also indicates that there was some other game mechanical factor you mishandled.

Alfred

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Post #: 1511
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 11:20:23 AM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


3. The fact that you achieved odds of 1:99 on a shock attack also indicates that there was some other game mechanical factor you mishandled.

Alfred

I agree with Alfred's observations. You are outside the IJ landing bonus and you really have to bring a big hammer. IJ has so few AK's that I always end up having to use some xAKL's or xAK's which causes a lot more disruption upon unloading. The 1:99 (ouch) has to be a result of your troops being almost completely disrupted upon landing. How that happened isn't clear. Either they were onboard too long, or the landing counter-fire was really heavy, or you got a REALLY bad roll ....

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Pax

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Post #: 1512
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 2:06:07 PM   
princep01

 

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Joined: 8/7/2006
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Very interesting battle re I-9 and the convoy escort. I-9 had to be badly damaged BEFORE the surface battle started. That makes it even more remarkable. My prior impression was that when DCs force a sub to the surface, the reality is that the crew is going to abandon ship as it is SINKING! But Nooooooo.....not with the sons of the Emperor crewing it. They run onto the deck as the sea draws to their knees, man the deck guns and blaze away!!

So far this has not happened to me on those occasions I have forced a sub to the surface. Yes, sometimes they do fire a shot or two, but are quickly dispatched by the escorts or ASW group. Now, I will be much more alert for those LYBs running out with samuari swords and bamboo sticks...not to mention the 6" deck guns.

Question: Is I-9 an especially large IJN sub?


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Post #: 1513
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 3:04:06 PM   
1275psi

 

Posts: 6597
Joined: 4/17/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

What I am following in your AAR is how you handle the decision of transitioning to the defense. The game rewards the USN for taking a risk in a very unique way as you very well know each sunk CV will appear in the OOB as a Essex CV just over a year later. So some number of extra Essex class CV's are going to show up in a bunch in the Winter of '43.

My point being that in almost every AAR besides PzB vs. Andy Mac the IJ continue the offensive initiative and then disaster. The IJ are not at all prepared for the onslaught of May '44 and the empire crumbles.

So I will be reading with great interest of where the IJ draw the line and build a defensive ring to hold off the hordes or does the IJ continue to attack until their "Borodino " "Stalingrad" .. Midway ... How will the IJ last until Mar '46? That will be a great read in this AAR as the game matures.


Excellent post, IMHO. As you can probably tell, I viewed the China offensive as my "Phase II" and do not plan a strategic level "Phase III" offensive. I think it's important to maintain an active defense, but overextension is folly in the long run for Japan.

In the upcoming strategic analysis post, you will see I have rejected the idea of any grand offensive given the relatively late date for that sort of thing and the lack of a strategically valuable target. The plan is for a limited operational offensive or two with the specific purpose of denying CF an easy avenue along the routes he can use with LBA. Reasoning is that he cannot make a big leap without CV superiority, which he will not have until mid '43 after Torres Islands. Thus, we will make the LBA avenues of approach tough on him.

Note however that the goal in all this is attrition at a favorable rate and delay. We cannot occupy DC to win the war. I agree that often JFBs in my position go whole hog and come up snake eyes. We will not throw away the 8ish months or more that CF has just provided to us by evening the CV odds in an Ill-advised adventure.




Agree totally
In my AAR, August 43, and Japan has only just started fighting for Lea
Not overshooting allows you a far better defence, and gives a lot of extra troops too
In my opinion, THE most important thing, is to never allow those air flottillas, 21, 22, 23, 24 ect, to get destroyed or isolated, always have prepared fields further back for them.
They allow torpedo bombers, and only they can do real air inflicted damage

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1514
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 3:07:14 PM   
1275psi

 

Posts: 6597
Joined: 4/17/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Strategic Analysis

October 31, 1942

Friendly Situation

All of Japan's pre-war objectives have been achieved. Namely, we have seized the Southern Resource Area with Oil production 90% intact, established a robust defensive perimeter in the Pacific, isolated China and reduced Chinese controlled territory to an island around Chungking that does not produce enough supply to re-build and support the KMT's defeated armies.

The Battle of the Torres Islands has further shifted the strategic balance in Japan's favor. Three enemy fleet carriers are sunk and one damaged for some months without appreciable damage to Kido Butai in return. This means that the Empire suddenly finds the date of the Allied counteroffensive shifted from "any day now" to, in all probability, the Summer of 1943.

This is a huge boon. What, if anything, do we do with it?

Enemy Situation and Intentions

Cribtop Intel has long assumed a two pronged Allied offensive was in the making. The dominant move would be handled by the Americans in SWPAC, with the anticipated target being the Solomons. A secondary offensive out of Burma by the Commonwealth was also expected.

The Torres Islands result frankly messes this up. Even if he assembles every flat top he has, CF will be outnumbered 2:1 until July '43 or so. Thus, an offensive that requires control of the surrounding seas, even for a short period, is now unachievable without the assumption of enormous risk that KB will show up and ruin the party.

Even though CF is a conservative player, Cribtop Intel doubts he will stand pat for 10 months. He has been on the defensive since December 7 and the sheer boredom must be getting to him. We thus assume that the enemy will be tempted to try an offensive along an avenue of approach that can be supported by LBA.

Intentions and Execution

We are now marching down a well worn path that many JFBs have trod. The common response is to muster forces for one last grand offensive, but it is our opinion this would be folly. Many times the IJN simply puts its head in a noose in early '43 through a combination of increasing capability of the Allied forces and the selection of a target that is not strategically decisive. For example, suppose we risk a lot and seize Fiji or New Caledonia? It's a cool pelt for the trophy wall, but what does this really do for Japan? Nothing, in my opinion. Truly cutting the SLoC to Oz would mean taking Tahiti. Capturing Noumea just moves the SLoC further south and invites overextension.

One target of possible interest is the Line Islands. As PzB and others have shown, taking these bases can result in an unhealthy USN fixation on a single target, with the potential to force further degradation of the enemy's fleet on a battleground of Japan's choosing. However, it is Cribtop Intel's estimate that CF would have secured these islands well by now. We will recon with Glens but probably pass.

What then is left to do? We believe the enemy's options are reduced to those AOs where he can move ahead on the ground or under LBA cover, namely Burma, NW Oz, the Papuan Peninsula (Port Moresby area), the lower Solomons, or NOPAC.

NOPAC will be closed until March, but we will use the Winter to build up supplies, facilities and troop levels. As long as we don't ignore it completely this AO is a sideshow.

NW Oz is deceptively difficult for the Allies. The overland route is hard to supply, while an amphibious campaign via Port Hedland will run into strong IJA defenses and the Imperial Navy.

Thus, we believe some combination of Burma and Operation Cartwheel to be the most likely enemy moves. We will counter as follows.

Burma. Here we will prioritize the deployment of Tojos and try to maintain a favorable air superiority ratio while piling in troops, starting with adding 38th Division and 1st Armored Division to the three plus divisions in theater. We will reinforce Sabang and be ready for raids against Palembang and Singers by increasing air defenses. This is probably all CF can do with his carriers at the moment.

SWPAC. We will build up Lae into a nasty interceptor Base as we expect 4Es to start pounding PM and Milne Bay. In addition, a division or two will begin prep for Ndeni. Capturing Ndeni would impose further delay on the Americans in the lower Solomons and perhaps even force a favorable naval engagement if CF gets impatient.

China. Finally, we will look to continue to starve China and will study an offensive against Kweiyang.

Conclusion

This is perhaps not the most glorious response to the Torres Islands victory, but IMHO it is the correct move. Japan's offensive capabilities are declining vis a vis the Allies, and throwing away the gift of 10 months' delay would be a grave error. If CF can't really get rolling until mid '43, we may keep him at bay for quite some time hence.



4 or five divs in burma
Not nearly enough
If he makes it his main thrust, you need at least ten or eleven

I had 5 there, and robert lee rolled straight over the top of me late 42...........

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 1515
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 3:25:31 PM   
Cribtop


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Great, but scary, info, 1275. Were the Allies required to pay PPs to move Indian units into Burma in your game? Did the enemy make a max effort with Australian and US divisions? Note that in the medium to long term, we plan to be able to pull out numerous divisions from China as that nation starves and its forces become (more) combat ineffective. Some will go to the Pacific, but many are earmarked for Burma. We may need to accelerate the timetable. Hmm.

@Princep - good to see you back on the boards! I-9 is a type A1 sub, a big Glen boat designed to be a sub command vessel. Thus, she is indeed one of the larger IJN subs. In reviewing the combat replay, she was hit by one penetrating DC and then one of many near misses started a fire in the control room. Perhaps the fire forced her to the surface with more structural integrity left than most subs in her position. Either way, her glorious fanaticism is appreciated.

@Alfred and PaxMondo - I will dig up the combat report, post it and comment soon. Thanks for your input as we sometimes can learn more from failure than from success. Sigh.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/22/2012 3:28:05 PM >


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Post #: 1516
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 5:25:10 PM   
Crackaces


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I am thinking it is not only a matter of how many divisions but where they are drawing the line. Defend the Irrawaddy valley and I would agree 10 or 12 divisions would be needed. But defend the jungle line Akyab, Kalemyo, Warazup with a X3 defense is a little harder to break.

The stacking limits map makes such an attack for the Allies complete folly ..

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Post #: 1517
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/22/2012 7:42:50 PM   
Feurer Krieg


Posts: 3041
Joined: 6/15/2005
From: Denver, CO
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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


3. The fact that you achieved odds of 1:99 on a shock attack also indicates that there was some other game mechanical factor you mishandled.

Alfred

I agree with Alfred's observations. You are outside the IJ landing bonus and you really have to bring a big hammer. IJ has so few AK's that I always end up having to use some xAKL's or xAK's which causes a lot more disruption upon unloading. The 1:99 (ouch) has to be a result of your troops being almost completely disrupted upon landing. How that happened isn't clear. Either they were onboard too long, or the landing counter-fire was really heavy, or you got a REALLY bad roll ....



Those noncivilian AK's are worth gold for Japan after the landing bonus is gone. I've been getting as many as I can into the yards for conversion early on (Jan 42) because I know I'll need them if I'm going to maintain any counterattacking ability from Mid-42 on.

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Post #: 1518
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/23/2012 7:19:51 AM   
jrcar

 

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IMHO correct move going on the defensive.

Need at least 6 div in Burma... yup you run out of them quick.

Sumatra is a relatively short hop...

Need a 2-3 div reserve on good amohib ships, xAP and AK.

Agree a minimum of a div, better two, for any invasion of a defended locality by sea... by either side!

Dig Dig Dig!

Cheers

Rob

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Post #: 1519
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/24/2012 5:32:33 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
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From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
October 31, 1942

CF is on a short vacation this weekend. We will catch up the AAR and then post the combat report from Baker for analysis.

Subs

Our Minelayer subs go for Noumea in the night and drop their eggs. They encounter a powerful SCTF flagged by BB North Carolina and a DD hits I-121. The sub will limp for Tulagi to pump out. Worse, my esteemed opponent was smart enough to have AMs on duty, so the mines are quickly swept. Worth a shot. Next up, we will send a mini to try for Enterprise.

An IJN ASW TF reacts onto Sturgeon near Singers but then fails to attack.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Ryuho and Chiyoda make Rabaul safely. We are a bit concerned as Rabaul is just within extreme 4E range of Cooktown, but for now are more concerned about subs if we try to move the damaged ships. We will post a big Zero Hikotai and an elite Nick group on CAP.

Speaking of Nicks, we intercept 27 B-24s over PM and shoot one down outright.

Southern Army

Recon spots two armored units marching north out of Tennant Creek. This could be a feint, but looks like an offensive. We hope so as Allied supply is tenuous and our local reserves are plentiful.

15th Army

No change.

China

No change.

Other

Several badly needed training groups arrive in the Home Islands. We have literally hundreds of trained pilots in every category except for IJNAF fighters. The new groups will help with that.

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Post #: 1520
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/24/2012 5:51:10 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
November 1, 1942

Subs

Runner torpedoes and sinks a medium size TK near Talaud-Eilanden. First significant tanker loss of the war. Sealion duds on a DD in the South China Sea. Seawolf duds on an SC escorting TKs near Djemadja. KX duds (!) on a full troopship carrying a strong garrison unit to Sabang. Lucky.

We need to be ready in 60 days when the enemy torps start working better. Cribtop HQ is considering a plan dubbed Operation Galleon, in which massive convoys would load for weeks at key ports before proceeding under heavy escort to Japan. Obviously a problem if the enemy gets an SCTF or carrier raid into our perimeter, but at the moment we doubt CF has the inclination or the capability for that.

UK ASW DCs and hits I-28, which was snooping near Bombay. The sub should be able to make port.

A Lily reports a hit on a sub near Singapore, probably the Sturgeon. We usually take these reports with a grain of salt, but this group is all 70+ ASW skill, so maybe we sent the enemy home.

CF is moving support ships to Noumea to repair damaged survivors of the Torres Islands. Our subs are having a field day as a result. Today, I-7 puts two TTs into AD Whitney and sinks the big vessel.

SE Fleet

In a sneaky good move, we order G3M3 Nells to hit Cooktown in daylight after recon showed hordes of bombers but no fighters. We guess right and catch a bunch of B-24s on the ground, destroying only 1 but damaging 16. Banzai! CF will think twice about using this exposed base for his 4Es. We know this was a one shot deal as the enemy will move in fighters, but that will take up space at the base and help protect our ships at Rabaul. We will consider a big bombardment of Cooktown as our next trick.

Southern Army

We land the aforementioned garrison unit at Sabang, raising defensive AS to 150+ behind four forts and growing. We feel more sanguine about this area now, as Sabang was a big hole in the front line.

China

DA Kukong gets a 5:1 against the isolated LCUs here. Casualties are 1452(114) vs 536(5). This sideshow will be over soon without the need for reinforcements.

5th Fleet

As the calendar flips into November, winter descends on NOPAC. We have some breathing room to use for re-supply and reinforcement. We plan to send forces into the Kuriles and possibly the Aleutians if we can scrape something together.



< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/24/2012 6:11:45 AM >


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Post #: 1521
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/24/2012 6:28:37 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
November 2, 1942

Subs

Pompano duds on an xAK hauling resources near Daito Shoto.

RO-65 puts two TTs into the big AR Medusa East of Noumea and down she goes! Another casualty of what Cribtop Intel believes to be the enemy's "repair the Enterprise" operation. Banzai! We really are thinking that MKB should visit New Caledonia soon. Escorts of a big convoy of xAPs and xAKs then prevent RO-65 from claiming more victims.

4th, 5th and SE Fleets

Nothing but the rain...

Southern Army

We are watching as CF increases recon and troop movements in NW Oz. Cribtop HQ issues a warning order to various units, including 18th Division at Kendari, to prepare to intervene here if it's the real deal.

15th Army

We are building up Lashio as a bomber base to threaten Ledo. The twin objectives here are to choke off the air bridge to China while forcing CF to deploy fighters away from offensive missions.

China

Speaking of the air bridge, Sallys at Lao Cai finally sortie against Kunming and hit the base hard, destroying several DC-2s.

A ChiCom LCU marches to within one hex of Taiyuan. Given our defenses in the mountain base and the pursuing division, we are quite happy with this.

Combined Fleet

MKB safely arrives at Truk today. The carriers will refit for a week or two to clear SYS damage. Evaluation of pilot losses is rather encouraging. We only need to pull 51 total pilots for 12 CVs and CVLs after a major carrier battle. Not too bad at all. We have the reserves and will allocate them.

Other

17th Army HQ, 2nd Division and 5th Division arrive without incident at Babel to begin to build a strategic reserve. They will soon be joined by 16th Division, several tank regiments and a horde of artillery. This frees up 48th Division to move from emergency strat reserve into its intended role as part of the SE Fleet local reserve. Nice!

In not so nice news, Chittagong makes airfield level 8 and Lahaina airfield level 7.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/24/2012 6:36:19 AM >


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Post #: 1522
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/24/2012 6:45:18 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
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From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
November 3, 1942

A quiet day.

Subs

Near Noumea, RO-65 misses an ASW TF DD and takes a penetrating DC hit in return. This gallant sub will have to RTB for repairs.

SE Fleet

Nicks and Zekes watch over our damaged chicks at Rabaul. The enemy Liberators appear chastened by our Nell raid for now.

Southern Army

B-17s hit our flanking tank regiment on the road to Wyndham. We fear this is a prelude to attack by CF's armor, but they do not make a move. As a result, a second IJA tank regiment arrives and fully isolates the Allied tank battalion. A third Japanese tank unit will enter the hex tomorrow.

China

DA Kukong achieves 10:1 odds, casualties 1327(5) vs 889(5).

Combined Fleet

Repairs will be finished in 10 days. Airframes are brought to full today. Pilots tomorrow.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/24/2012 6:46:48 AM >


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Post #: 1523
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/28/2012 6:14:45 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
OK, here is the promised combat report from Baker. Note that casualties on landing were nominal. In the combat replay, the IJA unit started with an AV number of 150ish that immediately dropped to zero in the fire phase of combat. Perhaps the American base force has a lot of heavy weapons? Maybe 40mm Bofors and 50 cal MGs firing in anti-personnel role?

I've seen divisional assaults fail due to lack of supply caused by the overstack. That was the reason behind my flawed decision to bring only a third of a division. Prep was 100%, supplies in the unit even after the battle were very much in the white (3X required IIRC). I guess if a division could be supplied it would just suffer awful losses but perhaps have the second wave bull over the enemy by sheer numbers? I did use both LSDs and AKs for the troops. Four big xAKs offloaded the supplies and did well at their job.

So, what do y'all think happened?

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Oct 27, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Baker Island (149,136)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

19 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
     CL Kashima
     CL Katori
     DD Mochizuki
     DD Mutsuki
     LSD Akitsu Maru
     DD Takanami
     DD Wakaba

Japanese ground losses:
     9 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
     10 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


CL Kashima firing at 134th USA  Base Force
CL Katori firing at 134th USA  Base Force
DD Mochizuki firing at 134th USA  Base Force
DD Mutsuki firing at 134th USA  Base Force
DD Mochizuki fired at enemy troops
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 6,000 yards
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 1,000 yards


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Baker Island (149,136)

TF 157 troops unloading over beach at Baker Island, 149,136

Japanese ground losses:
     47 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
        Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Vehicles lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Baker Island (149,136)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 4196 troops, 41 guns, 13 vehicles, Assault Value = 146

Defending force 3382 troops, 8 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 56

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 72

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
     2029 casualties reported
        Squads: 128 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 60 disabled
        Engineers: 22 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Guns lost 22 (15 destroyed, 7 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)



Assaulting units:
   20th/C Div /2

Defending units:
   1st Marine Raider Battalion
   134th USA  Base Force
   3rd USN Naval Construction Battalion

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Post #: 1524
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/28/2012 6:57:37 PM   
Gräfin Zeppelin


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Whats the stats of the commander of that third ?

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Post #: 1525
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/29/2012 1:23:13 AM   
Alfred

 

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Cribtop,

Not enough data provided. A few issues are highlighted.

1. A negative modifier for disruption. The disruption could have been caused by the Allied shore guns but much more likely is the length of time the troops were on board the ships.

2. You seem to have arrived only at daybreak. When assaulting an atoll it is absolutely critical that you arrive during the night phase so that you have two phases to unload the troops.

3. Only a fragment of your force was landed in time to launch the auto shock attack. This could be due to having only one unloading phase or not properly combat loading the troops onto the ships. You need to very much bear in mind the unload data provided in s.6.3.3.3.2.1 of the manual. In practice this means that your troop transports will be less than 50% full and contain no additional supply (other than that automatically taken on board by the game code).

4. There is no evidence of air bombardment of the defenders plus your naval bombardment TF was way too light to achieve anything meaningful. The KB is necessary not just to escort the invasion fleet but to also soften up the defenders. A heavier surface bombardment TF was also absolutely necessary as you did not rely on extensive pre invasion aerial strikes against Baker.

5. A USA Base Force has more than a third the offensive Assault Value of a Raider battalion. Hence, even before taking into account the defensive value of non combat devices, you already were significantly underestimating the bite of the enemy force awaiting you on Baker.

The reason why you simply must learn from this failure is because your strategy is based on an active defence with use of reserves to counter attack Allied offensives. Implementing such a strategy means you will inevitably have to counter invade enemy islands and atolls. Thus you need to fine tune your technique to land on opposed locations well after the end of the Japanese invasion bonus period has ended.

Alfred

(in reply to Gräfin Zeppelin)
Post #: 1526
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 6/29/2012 6:39:12 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
Alfred,

Thanks as always for the input.

I did use all the available unloading phases by moving the TF into the hex with "do not unload" orders and then unloading the next day over all three phases. I think that the other unloading phases don't show up as they didn't generate a combat replay other than the "Japanese force unloading at Baker Island" message (or I just missed them in the cut and paste, but I don't think so).

I do agree that I didn't bring enough to the party and didn't hammer the defenders enough. I did have a CL/DD TF bombard the day before and bombed on and off for a week. I confess I saw this as a snap invasion against a weakly defended target. Clearly a flawed assumption.

You are entirely correct that I have to get my amphibious doctrine down if I am to succeed with a counterpunching strategy. I very much underestimated the target. At the time I went in, I didn't have a meaningful strategic reserve as I was going hard for China and that may have influenced me to be cheap. I now have four divisions in local reserve (two each for the Pacific and Southern Army) and three divisions as strat reserve at Babel. Next time I attack (Ndeni), I'll be ready. Of course, it also helps that Ndeni isn't an atoll.

Finally, the disruption may have accumulated on the ships. I sent them straight from Truk and lingered an extra day or two near Jaluit as the Torres Islands CV battle played out. Should have unloaded at Jaluit for a re-org.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/29/2012 6:42:30 AM >


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Post #: 1527
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 7/4/2012 4:22:35 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
November 4, 1942

Once again I find myself playing catch up. Apologies, but the post move-in house arrangement monster is not yet defeated.

Frankly, things have been quiet post-Torres Islands, but all indications are that CF is beginning to stir towards Port Moresby, Darwin and Akyab. These avenues of approach are consistent with his newfound need to attack overland or under cover of LBA. We'll be watching for signs these moves are feints, but Cribtop Intel believes this will be the shape of the war until Summer 1943.

Subs

ASW harasses K XVIII near Donggala. As enemy subs re-appear here, we shift an ASW Ann group in response.

Tambor torpedoes a big xAK near the Marianas. She'll try to make Pagan for emergency repairs.

Operation Galleon

Cribtop HQ is considering options for the coming onslaught of more effective USN sub torpedoes. We are taking pains to ensure that the Malacca and Sunda Straits are mined and watched over by ASW TFs and trained aircraft. Same with the channel between Formosa and China (sans mines). We have drained just about all the production centers of excess stock, although piles of stuff remain at Singapore, Manila, Hokkaido and Sakhalin Island. We are considering less frequent, larger and better escorted convoys to replace the existing routes. These large treasure fleets remind me of Spanish Galleons. Hence the name of the Op.

What are y'all's thoughts? Bigger convoys will be less vulnerable to subs but obviously more vulnerable to SCTFs and CV raids. However, given the routes of these convoys, they are deep inside the perimeter, and thus pretty safe for now.

Southern Army

Helens and B-17s trade raids on the tanks West of Daly. A third IJA tank regiment enters this hex where 754th Tank Bttn is surrounded. We shall see whether this was a probe or an offensive. If the latter, numerous local reserves are available.

Through a concerted effort, we have drained Palembang of Oil, then fuel. Only resources remain in quantity. The glut has shifted to Singers, but additional TFs will now move the pile to Japan.

15th Army

We sweep and bomb Akyab to keep it suppressed. We accidentally throw the Bettys at Rangoon into the effort. This raid also sees the first operational use of the Helen IIa.

China

The enemy ChiCom Army is finally pulling out of its pre-war positions and falling back on Yenan. Cut off for eight months or more, they must be starving. We will watch for and offensive against Sian and shift a few units to cover, but Cribtop HQ isn't overly concerned.

Combined Fleet

Repairs continue at Truk. Over the next week or so we will reconstitute air groups by pulling elite pilots from IJNAF LBA groups into reserve, then those pilots plus a TRACOM stash will move into the carrier groups. Plenty of trained pilots are available for the LBA groups.

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Post #: 1528
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 7/4/2012 4:35:27 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3650
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: online
November 5, 1942

Subs

Convoy escorts chase off Seawolf near Singers. This is a new patrol area that we will respond to by shifting an AV to Terempa to allow for ASW air coverage in an unbroken line from Miri to Singapore.

Our sub blockade of damaged Enterprise at Nounea continues.

Oosthaven and Merak are now heavily mined and shepherded by ACMs. We hope a few subs fall into this net.

SE Fleet

CF chooses to return to PM the one day we rested our LRCAPing Nicks. The base is hit pretty good but not too bad. Our decision to base a construction engineer unit here permanently is helping to keep damage low and providing a chance to attrit 4Es in favorable conditions.

15th Army

Ramree Island makes level 1 airfield. This was done to facilitate pulling out or inserting troops by air for easier re-positioning if necessary.

China

Weather keeps grounding our Sallys and hampering efforts to suppress Kunming.

DA Kukong - 14:1 odds, casualties 1206(28) vs 436(6). Just a matter of time.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 7/4/2012 4:40:02 PM >


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Post #: 1529
RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop ... - 7/4/2012 4:43:34 PM   
Alfred

 

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My comment is based on annecdotal experience and from an Allied perspective.

The maximum size of an ASW TF is 4 ships. I have never notice more than four escorts embedded in a logistics TF engaging an enemy submarine. In fact usually it is only a maximum of two escort ships involved in combat.

Hence I would say go for bigger size convoys but don't bother embedding more than 4 escort combatants within the convoy.

I wouldn't be too concerned about the bigger sized convoys being susceptible to enemy surface TF. However if you are you can always create a dedicated surface TF to lead the convoy. Has the added benefit of allowing more "escorts" to shepherd the sheep through (bearing in mind the earlier remark about number of embedded escorts) and if the leading surface combat TF has fast combatants (eg destroyers) that will provide that particular TF with a combat advantage should enemy subs be encountered.

Alfred

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Post #: 1530
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