From: Lone Star Nation
As we have seen, since the 25th of July CF has been undertaking some new actions. To wit:
The enemy armor stack is advancing, with support from lots of 4Es and a group of Aussie fighters. CF has been willing to endure pretty effective air strikes for weeks on these troops and has marched up to the threshhold of Daly Waters. Recon does not show a move arrow into the base yet, but he may yet do so. We have a good array of forces (350 AS, including lots of tanks and ATGs, with another 125 AS approaching) behind level 3+ forts.
Enemy planes have begun recon flights over Imperial Guards Division near Akyab and Ramree Island. Add to that the raid by enemy Blenheims on the 25th that has not been repeated (was this a "recon by bombing effort?"). Bases in NE India are building.
Recon flights over Funafuti for a week and now a few days over Tulagi. Signs of build up of Luganville and Noumea, with tankers and troop ships spotted near the latter base.
It's always dangerous to guess at enemy intentions. However, the picture above is generally interpreted by Cribtop Intel as follows:
CF has divined that our commitment to China may let him launch an offensive. By August '42 he has the capability to begin some limited offensive Ops. He is considering a multi-pronged attack in SWPAC and Burma so that MKB can't be both places at once. The new interest in Ramree Island indicates that could be the target. In SWPAC he is probably weighing various options somewhere in the Solomons or Milne Bay.
We read the moves in NW Oz as a feint. He has not brought anything more to the party from the last effort at Daly other than planes, which are easily moved.
Thus, we will reinforce Ramree Island, re-position 55th Division (theater reserve) so that it can be flown or railed into any threatened base, and move some LBA from Timor to Batavia, allowing them to react in either direction quickly. In the Pacific, we are building defenses up about as best we can. Combined Fleet (consisting of MKB, Tanaka Force, an ASW TF and the Fleet Oilers) will probably shift to Truk. In addition, we will hasten the end in Luzon (which is quite late, really), freeing up a lot of troops to man the fences. This will get interesting, folks! Given the need to use MKB defensively for the most part and in multiple AOs for the remainder of the war, we will henceforth (that word was for Canoerebel) have a new entry in our AAR reporting on the actions of Combined Fleet. We'll call it, let's see... "Combined Fleet."
Obvert - I'll post a screenshot of the Solomons and NG later today. The wolf packs are more effective as the enemy sails over multiple subs and gets attacked multiple times. We haven't quite placed them right, yet, but are beginning to zero in. Cribtop Intel continues to interpret the relatively empty seas as a sign that CF is using large, infrequent convoys instead of smaller, more regular ones. This was a big part of the ultimately flawed decision to have the CVEs raid the convoy lanes.
< Message edited by Cribtop -- 1/26/2012 7:17:51 PM >