Having read many of Nemo's discourses over a variety of AARs and issues, I find I typically am in agreement with his assessments. However, on the issue of the decision to attack the AO TF with the Lady Lex, I do not agree. I see it as a bold, but not reckless move. The loss of the AOs is, in and of itself, not shattering. However, I think Nemo ignores the potential pschological effect this loss can have on an opponent. In Scenario 2 games, it is logical to assume that JJ is going for an auto victory. This likely will require a rapid advance and one that might be based on "long-reaches", followed by backfill. Those long reaches often require a large, mobile gas station. That has been, at least, partially compromised. This, in turn, can cause a confident JJ (on December 7) to become more cautious and alter ambitious plans, thus abandoning the queat for the auto victory.
I agree with Canoe's move in this case. To scurry SW was indeed the safest course, but even that was not foolproof. Thus, the bold move was sustainable and, in hindsight, did prove to be a productive gamble. Nice cache of VPs too:). Nicely done, Canoe