From: Chicago, Illinois
ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
Here are some numbers to back up my rambling above:
At the start of the war:
Honshu: 885 refineries
Kyushu: 10 refineries
Pt. Arthur: 120 refineries
Indochina: 20 refineries
Total: 1035 refineries
Total monthly oil need at 100% usage: 310,500 oil
Total oil production (per month) - all Japanese holdings: 67,200 oil
Total oil reserves: 3.28 million oil
Oil reserves will run out in 11.5 months.
SRA & Burma
Total refineries: 2260
Total oil centers: 2620
Excess oil (per day): 360*10 = 3600
Excess oil (per month): 3600*30 = 108,000
Potential fuel (per month) from excess oil: 108,000*9 = 972,000
That's almost 1 million fuel per month lost if you don't ship oil back to Honshu.
If you repair the 150 oil at Miri and 10 oil at Brunei then you have an additional 160*10*30*9 = 432,000 fuel per month.
That's a total of 1.4 million fuel that is lost per month. If you choose to build additional refining capacity in the SRA to cover that oil, that'll 5200 more refineries to be built costing 5,200,000 supply.
Edit: Someone please check my math!
I did! Not bad, but an error right at the end:
That should be multiplied by .9, not 9. So the lost fuel per month is 97,200, not 972,000. Makes a big difference! 1 Oil point will convert to 9/10 of a Fuel Point, plus 1/10 of supply point.
Point taken, though: Don't re-build refineries in the SRA, ship Oil home instead.
It will be interesting to see how the end-game plays out for the Japanese Economy. I might be nervous about relying on Oil stocks late, because the Allies could just bomb the refineries. I think as 1945 approaches, I would rather ship fuel, and let the Oil burn up. Of course, late in the game other things are happening that can impact Fuel consumption, including the state of the IJN (might not be burning much in 1945!), whether you need much HI (you might have a large stockpile by then), coupled with the fact that aircraft industry will be consuming more HI, but shipbuilding will be consuming less.