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Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out.

 
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Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/13/2009 3:31:52 PM   
gladiatt


Posts: 2541
Joined: 4/10/2008
Status: offline

Hi guys.
I know this forum seem to die slowly for the AE forum, but i find it convenient to put this thread in here : i am playing Witp, not AE ;

So, first: PBEM, Stock 1.806. I am playing the allies.
I need advice on situation, probable aim of my japanese opponant, or idea of what to do.
If ever it is interesting for someone ?? ;

Date is 3 january 1942.

1) China: no major changes in there, and no particular insight to give. Hong Kong had fallen quicly to the jap, a large battle occur from 2 weeks now at Changsa, the jap bombardement cause 500 casualties too much often, and the chinese bombardement cause between 50 to 70 casualties on good days. Fort level as climbed to level 4.

2) Philippinas: in the beginning of december, i withdraw philippinos troops to Clark/Manilla. THe japs had seized Legaspi, and is now attacking Naga with 2 divs and a Nav Guard and a tank regiment, agaisnt 2 philippinos div and a tank batallion: 3 days of battle had cause much casualties to jap then to allies, but the number of destroyed sqads are probably zero because the victory point for army loss on jap side don't raise . Fort level had dropped to 1 at this place, expected to be lostin 2 or 3 days maximum.

3) Malaya: 2 jap div had saized Kotha Bharu, so i moved all brits troops to Johore and Singapore, except for a brigade wich, too slow, had go to Georgetown: no japs unit in this exe for the moment, but supplies very low. Supply in Singapore not good but still 30.000 points.
4) Sumatra: i payed PP to try to evacuate dutch BF or small battalion, but much are now feeding the fish in Malacca strait: miss betty and nells did sunk much AK and even 3 DD trying to make a Fast Transport evac.
5) Java: fort are raising too much slowly in Batavia, Soerebaja and Tjilitjap. There are now something like 80 LBA allies in this island, but useless: in a month, my jap opponent maked 2 raids of 20 surface ships (usually 8 cruisers of CA and CL type, and 12 DD or so), sinking in two raids 25 AK, 4 MSW, 2ML, 4DD, 1CL.
The LBA did made 4 hits in a month: a 250lb bomb on a DD, and 3 500lb bomb on BB Kongo wich barely lost an AAgun.....
Doorman TF of CL had meet with force Z, but miss bety and nell flying from Kuantan tried 2 or 3 time to slaughter them (even with dutch fighter cap above them), so this force is now cruising in indian ocean, useless too.
6)Borneo: Miri and Brunei in jap hands, but nothing else right now (wich frighten me!)
7)North Australia: a australian bde coming from Perth had reinforce Derby. Forts are rising tooo slowly in Derby and Darwin. A BF was bring from Iloilo in Darwin ,and a few supplies to. Port Moresby had received the surviving part of Lark Bn from Rabaul, and an Australian BF, but the fort are slooooow to rise (still level 3). There is a Hudson sqadron in Port Moresby of 6 planes (pool empty), 8 useless wirraway.
For 2 days now, some japs CL are making bombing run on Gili Gili, so i fear a landing there could occur, and theaten Port Moresby (at least for the way of bringing supplies in there).
8)New Caledonia: still allies. There is a base force here trying to raise fort to level 1 (not done yet). A TF of 5 australians cruiser was lurking around Noumea for 5 days because a CA TF of jap was lurking there. ON January the 2, my opponant manage i don't know how to find my TF in the middle of Ocean, 5CA,4CL and 17DD made a carnage of my Australians cruisers, all sunk, for the lone loss of CL Kitakami .
There is a Hudson squadron coming from New Zeland (having paid the pp price for it) in Noumea wich just manage to have 12 of it's 16 planes damaged in two days by the japanese Flack !!
a huge convoy with 2nd marine div is closing to Noumea...well, it is still 8 days away ! but i fear the jap could bring a CVL, or that the CA TF could catch the unprotected convoy.
9) Johnston Island received around 12 or 13 december a CD Marines Battalion. Two bombardement TF of 7 BB slaughter it, and an assault on the island by the jap see it fall. On 1 january, 60 B-17 OF Pearl, seeing for the first time an AC icon n the island, decided to bomb some on ground. They were met by 60 Zero of at least one land based datai and 5 carrier based datai; for the loss of 5 zero, 43 bomber were downed, for no result on ground.
10) on december 25, an RCT and a Art Reg were closing to reach Midwway by AK; but the 2 convoy were catched by a sub just 1 hex away of the island, loosing a AK and giving warning to the japs: on the following night, 7BB swallowed the 2 convoys, 5500 mens lost.
With 9 and 10 i fear the Hawain Island are under threat. More: on the 10 div that the jap is supposed to "play" with, i have a clue for 4 of them (2 in Malaya, 2 in Philippinas) so 6 of them where never seen (nor reported by Singint).
11) At this date i have 3 CV; they managed to rendez vous in a secret place, but they are more closer of Pearl then Australia, to give an idea. A 4th CV (Yorktown???) is expected in 10 days at West Coast. The full force of Pearl is unscathed because there never was an attack on this port.
12) the PP are low: i have paid for some dutch BF or Bn, in order to gather them at some place, some with succes, some slaughtered. So i have near no PP to draw a Group of Bomber or Fighters from West Coast to send in SoPac. For the moment, convoy are making runs between WC and Pearl because the supplies is very low at this place (now rising to nearly 80000).
13) Global loss are on the jap side ! 840 point of army destroyed on the allies side, 42 on the jap side. 6 ships lost by the japanese: 3DD, a CL, and a PG and an AP. 109 ships on the allies side: 3 CA, 4CL, 12 or 13DD, few aux, and something like 60AK.

This for the general situation.

What to do?
Reinforce Lahaina with an incoming div, because i am frightening about Hawai? I think of this because their is few invasion in the DEI;
Reinforce Noumea ? But i fear to loose an entire div trying to reach Noumea Port. Put the division out of harm way in Auckland ? Bring it to Brisbane? Wait for my 4CV gathered? This could mean no less then 25 days, probably to late to detter a jap landing in Noumea.
Reinforce SoPac with another div wich is now in the middle of the ocean, on a unprotected convoy: land it where ? At Pago Pago? Fiji ? Christmas Island ? (Canton island seeming too near Johnston for me right now).
The fact that the few planes that i have at the moment are just training the flack of the japanase ships is boring me, and don't help to have any confidence in any planning.

Ideas ? I mean, usefull ideas ? I precise because usually, there are some good/lucky player just saying : "resist with all you got to make the jap pay", but with me this seem a obsolete advice, as ALL my force seems useless. Rate of bomb from planes (i made a statistical count from my game) is 0,5% ! Rate of torp from sub is 0,03. Rate of lands units is not know but many time, the units don't even fire (when Menado was taken, or Johnston, or Kendari, or Brunei, or Appari, or Laoag) because their was at this time NO japanese loss.

A bit long post, sorry if it bore.
Post #: 1
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/13/2009 4:33:06 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 3824
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline
gladiatt,

I don't have time now to reply in full but will within the next ouple of days. In the interim you might care to put some screenshots showing your force dispositions, total aircraft pools, available naval assets etc. I realise that could be a lot of work but you are asking for detailed advise which can only be made knowing the global situation.

Also could you confirm the following:

(a) Kuching remains in Allied hands
(b) all bases on Sumatra, Java, the Moluccas and Ceram remain in Allied hands
(c) do you still retain in the vicinity of Derby the sea lift which you used to transport a bde - you may need to evacuate that bde as the north of Australia is indefensible from a determined Japanese invasion
(d) do you know the location of the KB
(e) at what height are you conducting air raids
(f) do you still retain the initial 2 divisions located at Pearl Harbor
(g) why do you use AKs instead of APs to transport your LCU
(h) are Jolo, Cagayan and Davao still under Allied control - if so, what are the local garrisons
(i) have you converted the 7th BG to the LB-30
(j) have you left any coastal bases on Java ungarrisoned

Alfred

(in reply to gladiatt)
Post #: 2
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/13/2009 5:28:54 PM   
khyberbill


Posts: 1941
Joined: 9/11/2007
From: new milford, ct
Status: offline
alfred is the best for good advice. some additional thoughts:


i have found that carrier battles at this point in the war tend to be a disaster..for me. thus i use them as asw platforms along my supply lines and near shore fighter cover. adventurous japanese players like to put a mini-kb in the indian ocean and if this happens, it is also a good place for one or two us cv's along with whatever british you have on the map. more than once i have gotten mini-kb west of batavia this way.

java can be held for a long time if your opponent is slow to invade. i tend to make a stand at soerabaja and or batavia.

there are two or three dutch aviation units that will build up nicely. i try to buy them out now and then expand them later and get them out of harms way to northern australia or india. all of the dutch base forces can come in handy at a later date. i would not spend pp's for the infantry or the planes except maybe for the bombers (upgrade to b-25) and definitely for the recon.

dont bother trying to get philippine infantry out. they build too slowly, let them stand and fight. get the us base forces out if you can. even fragments will fill out in 6-12 months.

i have never played a stock pbem as japan and am more familar with nik, bigb and chs mods. however, when i have played as the japanese in those mods, i have never lost and i have never taken/bombed any us bases except for those in pi. not even guam, wake or midway. thus if your opponent does head for pearl harbor, in my opinion, he is doomed. it creates a long supply line for him that you can take advantage of. thus, i would not attempt to hold the place this early in the game because you probably cant hold it. remember that the japanese side is very powerful at this point and can take any place he chooses. once he commits, then you can start long range planning.

loss of port moresby hurts, but if i recall, you can bomb him from northern australia (at least in chs one has thursday island). but it is difficult to hold pm until middle 42 if your opponent wants it.

good luck
bill

_____________________________

"Its a dog eat dog world Sammy and I am wearing Milkbone underwear" -Norm.

(in reply to gladiatt)
Post #: 3
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/13/2009 8:02:00 PM   
gladiatt


Posts: 2541
Joined: 4/10/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

gladiatt,

I don't have time now to reply in full but will within the next ouple of days. In the interim you might care to put some screenshots showing your force dispositions, total aircraft pools, available naval assets etc. I realise that could be a lot of work but you are asking for detailed advise which can only be made knowing the global situation.

Also could you confirm the following:

(a) Kuching remains in Allied hands
(b) all bases on Sumatra, Java, the Moluccas and Ceram remain in Allied hands
(c) do you still retain in the vicinity of Derby the sea lift which you used to transport a bde - you may need to evacuate that bde as the north of Australia is indefensible from a determined Japanese invasion
(d) do you know the location of the KB
(e) at what height are you conducting air raids
(f) do you still retain the initial 2 divisions located at Pearl Harbor
(g) why do you use AKs instead of APs to transport your LCU
(h) are Jolo, Cagayan and Davao still under Allied control - if so, what are the local garrisons
(i) have you converted the 7th BG to the LB-30
(j) have you left any coastal bases on Java ungarrisoned

Alfred


Hello Alfred.
I will try to put screenshot tomorrow friday with the help of my wife : i am dumb with computer and usually need her help for such task !!!!!

So first, i would like to thank you for the "futur" advice and the time given.

Second, before posting screenshot, here is what i can precise according to your quastions:

1)Kuching, north of Borneo, is still an allied base, with 3O aviation support.
2)All bases on Sumatra and Java are still allied. Makassar is allied but Kendari and Menado are japanese. Amboine still allies and a jap CVL just near this place.
3) The lift capacity near Derby has been divided around Java (and a few sinked), but could be gathered in a few days. I thought this move to Derby by an entire brigade was a wise move....
4) From what i know, much (but all i am not sure) of KB is near Johnston Island.
5) at first i made my raids above 10000ft because i thought there was a moral check below, but since maybe 2 weeks of game play , i had been told the check was at 6000ft and now the attacks are at 7000 ft. But prove useless: of the 3 jap DD destroyed, all were hit by a mine somewhere (Batavia and Johnston island).
6) Yes, the two div starting in Pearl are still in Pearl.
7) i use some AK and some AP, but a few of my AP (from US or Brit side) where sunk in futile try to evacuate some troops north of Sumatra or at Georgetown. Others had been gathered in the two big convoys lifting a div each, one approaching Noumea.
8)Jolo, Cagayan,Davao still allied. 1 philippinos div in each location, and a BF in each. Very few supplies point so no work on fort there. No possibility to move, it's a no zone for my ships.
9) 7th BG not yet converted because Pool of LB-30 is now at 47 planes (and 48 needed).
10) On Java, two coastal base are empty : Medan and Malan, that is south west coast of the island, with port or base nearly at 0. Each other has a small garrison (Batavia has 2 regiments wich are the stronger units on this island). Pamakasan island, just in front of Soerebaja is now empty of it's batallion wich is in Soerebaja.

Will try to post screenshot tomorrow.
Thanks anyway.
Eric

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 4
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/13/2009 8:04:56 PM   
gladiatt


Posts: 2541
Joined: 4/10/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: khyberbill

alfred is the best for good advice. some additional thoughts:


i have found that carrier battles at this point in the war tend to be a disaster..for me. thus i use them as asw platforms along my supply lines and near shore fighter cover. adventurous japanese players like to put a mini-kb in the indian ocean and if this happens, it is also a good place for one or two us cv's along with whatever british you have on the map. more than once i have gotten mini-kb west of batavia this way.

java can be held for a long time if your opponent is slow to invade. i tend to make a stand at soerabaja and or batavia.

there are two or three dutch aviation units that will build up nicely. i try to buy them out now and then expand them later and get them out of harms way to northern australia or india. all of the dutch base forces can come in handy at a later date. i would not spend pp's for the infantry or the planes except maybe for the bombers (upgrade to b-25) and definitely for the recon.

dont bother trying to get philippine infantry out. they build too slowly, let them stand and fight. get the us base forces out if you can. even fragments will fill out in 6-12 months.

i have never played a stock pbem as japan and am more familar with nik, bigb and chs mods. however, when i have played as the japanese in those mods, i have never lost and i have never taken/bombed any us bases except for those in pi. not even guam, wake or midway. thus if your opponent does head for pearl harbor, in my opinion, he is doomed. it creates a long supply line for him that you can take advantage of. thus, i would not attempt to hold the place this early in the game because you probably cant hold it. remember that the japanese side is very powerful at this point and can take any place he chooses. once he commits, then you can start long range planning.

loss of port moresby hurts, but if i recall, you can bomb him from northern australia (at least in chs one has thursday island). but it is difficult to hold pm until middle 42 if your opponent wants it.

good luck
bill


Thanks Khyberbill. I take advice but have not much hope with my useless LBA;
And still fearing using my CV AGAINST HIS CV;

On a sidenote: a good point for me is the Flack of my base and secondary my fighters: 500 japanese planes destroyed for 570 allies planes...

(in reply to khyberbill)
Post #: 5
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/13/2009 9:51:25 PM   
flaggelant


Posts: 262
Joined: 1/25/2009
From: Netherlands
Status: offline
as long as you can keep track of KB (using subs is also a good way to do so, since it'll be nav searching a lot)
I'd say use them in the Sopac area to start defences (like landing that division)


also, try putting up as much of a fight as you can around Balikpapan, Palembang & Sourabaja 
those are mayor oil & resource points, more fighting means more damage upon capture.
By not capturing these up to this point he'll be running low in both, and as it takes a while to repair
this will likely be forming a bottleneck for his industry in the future.


What you might want to do is mine some of his ports with subs, its annoying and keeps the enemy busy
(and you might eventually get a nice hit somewhere) try picking ports where your not expecting any MSW.


and you kinda forgot about Burma, any divisions over there? 

(in reply to gladiatt)
Post #: 6
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/13/2009 10:57:20 PM   
gladiatt


Posts: 2541
Joined: 4/10/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: flaggelant

as long as you can keep track of KB (using subs is also a good way to do so, since it'll be nav searching a lot)
I'd say use them in the Sopac area to start defences (like landing that division)


also, try putting up as much of a fight as you can around Balikpapan, Palembang & Sourabaja 
those are mayor oil & resource points, more fighting means more damage upon capture.
By not capturing these up to this point he'll be running low in both, and as it takes a while to repair
this will likely be forming a bottleneck for his industry in the future.


What you might want to do is mine some of his ports with subs, its annoying and keeps the enemy busy
(and you might eventually get a nice hit somewhere) try picking ports where your not expecting any MSW.


and you kinda forgot about Burma, any divisions over there? 


Hi Flagellant.
Mine are the weapons that destroyed 3 japs DD on the 7 ships he lost, so yes i like them. Subs are going to lay some in different place, always changing place.
I am wondering what's going on about DEI: may be my opponant plan to take that after something else....Tarakan has been emptied of troops and these had gathered in Balikpapan, but still no japs there....Menado and Kendari had been captured by the same brigade , so this is why 1- i fear some divs could be on some big target
2- there is no major assault of DEI;
Of course i hope that the delay he have in taking DEI will hurt his economy in some way.

Burma: i aù gathering a few brigades in mandalay, trying to build the forts (still level one), and i have emptied Moulmein and Raheng. Japs have seized Moulmein, but for the moment, the unit there don't have cross the river...The indian Div in india try to build (their TOE is not full), but this seems very long....These divs are still in india, near the Gange and Bhramapoutre.
And to Alfred: still no screenshot, Miss Gladiatt is sleeping right now, i just don't want to imagine if i awake her to ask for help

< Message edited by gladiatt -- 8/13/2009 11:00:22 PM >

(in reply to flaggelant)
Post #: 7
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 6:45:31 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 3824
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline
gladiatt,

A few preliminary comments pending receipt of additional information and further cogitation.  You should also note that the best advice you can be given is not to do x and y but advice which makes you understand the causes and consequences of actions.

(1)  If a Japanese player intends to invade Hawaii, he should:

(a)  launch the 7 December Pearl Harbor strike to cripple the American fleet and airforce, and
(b)  in December grab at least one of the atolls on the approaches (preferably Johnston Island) so that Bettys can enforce an aerial blockade against Allied resupply convoys, and
(c)  having accomplished both (a) and (b), in January 1942 capture one of the key vulnerable air bases (Lahaina, Kona, Hilo) with the assistance of the KB.

Based on the information provided to date, on the balance of probabilities I doubt that an Hawaiian invasion is forthcoming.  Of more importance is that sending a division to garrison Lahaina is most unlikely to deter or adequately defend Hawaii from a January/February 1942 invasion.  Consider these factors in support of my tentative conclusion:

(d)  by not launching the 7 December Pearl Harbor strike, the entire American fleet and airforce is available to interdict the long SLOC to any of the bases captured in (c) above,
(e)  Japan only needs one (two at the most) of the bases listed in (c) above in order to effect a close air blockade (combined with the long range air blockade from Johnston Island) of Pearl Harbor.  Consequently if you only garrison Lahaina but leave Kona/Hilo weak, the enemy merely captures them instead of Lahaina.  You simply do not have the resources (nor would it be a good use of them if you did) to strongly garrison all the Hawaiian bases.

For the time being you should merely garrison the key Hawaiian bases witha battalion equivalent to:

(f)  prevent their capture by enemy paratroopers, and
(g)  provide you with time to rush in (via Fast Transport/air transport) reinforcements against a naval landing

(2)  In early 1942, the coastal north Australian bases (Broome, Derby, Wyndham and Darwin) can not be held against a determined Japanese invasion.  Because Japanese players:

(a)  know the vulnerability of these bases and the difficulties attached to any offensive operations launched from them aimed at conquering Australia,
(b)  usually attach a higher priority to either terminating early the Malaya/Phillipines campaigns, or capturing the high oil value bases in the DEI,
(c)  plan their 3rd wave of offensives to be either an Indian invasion or moving down the Solomons/New Hebrides/New Caledonia to cut off the West Coast-Australia SLOC,

the Allied player more often than not is given sufficient time to march overland Australia Command restricted brigades to garrison the northern bases.  It is a mistake to garrison the northern bases with brigades on whom PPs have been spent to make them sea mobile.  It is a mistake because:

(d)  garrisoning Derby and not the other northern coastal bases too achieves nothing (note the similar comments made under (1)(e) above)
(e)  it is a misallocation of PPs to defend the indefensible
(f)  having wasted those PPs, there are strategically far better places to send the sea mobile brigade.

(3)  Have you checked that you have appropriate leaders for your air units.  As you are currently experiencing a shortage of PPs, you should concentrate your PP expenditure on having the correct air leaders (one of the most cost effective ways to spend PPs).  Ensure fighter units are led by leaders rated best for air combat, bomber units are led by bomber experrts etc.  Try to have frontline units with high morale leaders.  Examine all air units (include transport, patrol, recon, rear area units) of all countries (do not overlook Dutch and Chinese units).

(4)  Your opponent concentrates his naval assets into large TFs.  You should do so too for your combat TFs.  Aim to have at least 15 ships (provided they are of similar speed) in your air/surface/bombardment TFs.

(5)  I assume that you are aware of the early war limitations of Allied subs, so I will limit myself to a couple of points which you may have overlooked.  Regarding the combat effective classes, you should:

(a)  move each sub 1 hex every turn, even if it is from A to B back to A back to B back to A etc,
(b)  place them inside/just outside captured ports in order to firstly interdict enemy resupply convoys to its schwerpunkts, secondly to place your subs as far away as possible from the major concentrations of enemy air power, thirdly it provides vital intel, fourthly it improves the chances of rescuing downed Allied airmen and fifthly, it reduces the travel time to/from station for these subs which generally are short legged.

This leaves you with a fundamental decision to make regarding the combat impaired American subs.  With the exception of the 2 Dutch and 1 American dedicated minelayers (do not upgrade the American sub or you will lose its mine carrying capacity) which should be used to only lay minefields, the combat impaired American subs need to be concentrated into large TFs to conduct either transport or minelaying operations.  Personally I would choose transport operations because they can be so employed in the SRA on relatively short trips whereas if you opt for minelaying operations, they probably will need to be based at Pearl Harbor thereby increasing their to/from station travel times.

(6)  Don't forget to conduct "shakedown" cruises in safe backwaters to improve crew experience levels.

(7)  Your DM and DMS destroyers are too valuable to be exposed in dangerous waters.  For the next few months use them exclusively in Hawaii under the cover of friendly air cover.

(8)  Either you received a very bad die roll when you lost 43 B-17s against 5 Zeros over Johnston Island, or the air raid was very poorly planned.  Make a note of which type of enemy air fighters are located at each base and what that type's ceiling is.  Try to fly unescorted bombers above the enemy fighter ceiling.  At the moment, you are probably better off sacrificing bombing accuracy for pilot survival (and consequent experience gain) by increasing altitudes.  Experience is gained quickly after each mission.

(9)  I assume you have PDUs on.  It is therefore important that you spread your airframe losses amongst your different aircraft models.  There are no useless Allied aircraft, even the Wirraway is useful if employed correctly, for example on naval/ground attack.  Every Allied plane which attacks a Japanese ship causes the enemy ship to increase its fuel consumption and this benefit occurs whether or not a bomb is dropped or the bomb bounces off the ship.  If enemy ship flak is too effective (something I find very surprising at this point in the war because Japanese ships, particularly their merchantmen, are not well endowed with AA), just fly higher.  Pilot experience is the key to more effective bombing and for that you need to improve pilot survival rates.  They will not improve if they keep on being killed off before they learn how to aim.

(10)  In stock Allied AKs come in only two sizes, 4000 and 7000 tones, whereas there are three sizes for APs, 1500/3000/6000.  You should transport troops only in APs (using the load troops only command) for these reasons:

(a) the smaller size of the APs means you spend less time in port loading/unloading troops - thus you minimise the opportunities for the enemy to locate and then vector bombers against the TF,
(b)  the APs tend to have better AA - in fact British/Commonwealth 4000 ton AKs have no effective AA,
(c)  the APs tend to have a higher speed - with the obvious benefit of quicker travel times but also the less obvious benefit that if you add faster DDs or APDs for ASW protection, the combat ships are not so heavily speed penalised.  Use your slow MSWs as ASW escorts for the slow AK TFs.

(11)  You have 2 Dutch air transport units.  Both have the range to reach Singapore from Dutch airfields.  Use them to fly supplies daily into Singapore whilst your opponent is not LRCAPing Singapore.  Dutch float plnese and bombers can also be used to fly in supply.  Singapore's Heavy Industry needs sea delivery of oil and resources to generate supply.  Provided the requisite raw materials are present, Heavy Industry continues to produce supplies even if enemy troops are present.

(12)  Be wary of which Dutch base forces you reassign to an unrestricted command and are set to receive reinforcements.  The Dutch naval base forces begin mobile but if they are allowed to receive reinforcements they will receive static guns which make the units immobile.

(13)  You receive several different types of Filipino infantry squads.  Whilst the rate is not large and their firepower is weak, you must rescue one Filipino unit of each infantry squad type in order to use up the pools.


Anyway these are some preliminary views.  When you get around to providing the additional info don't forget to provide details of how far down the Solomons the Japanese have gone.  It is still very early days in the war and I rather suspect that your opponent is not pursuing it vigorously.  The fact that you still retain all of Mindanao and Dutch Borneo, and probably retain air superiority over the Maccasar Strait, leaves open the tantalising prospect that you might be able to defeat completely the Japanese invasion of Luzon (need to see those screenshots and force dispositions etc).

Alfred

(in reply to gladiatt)
Post #: 8
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 8:19:32 AM   
gladiatt


Posts: 2541
Joined: 4/10/2008
Status: offline
Alfred.
Wow, what great insight in your mail.
Currently at work, so there would be comments on your comments, but the screenshots will be for this evening. Thanks anyway for your advices.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

gladiatt,

A few preliminary comments pending receipt of additional information and further cogitation.  You should also note that the best advice you can be given is not to do x and y but advice which makes you understand the causes and consequences of actions.

(1)  If a Japanese player intends to invade Hawaii, he should:

(a)  launch the 7 December Pearl Harbor strike to cripple the American fleet and airforce, and
(b)  in December grab at least one of the atolls on the approaches (preferably Johnston Island) so that Bettys can enforce an aerial blockade against Allied resupply convoys, and
(c)  having accomplished both (a) and (b), in January 1942 capture one of the key vulnerable air bases (Lahaina, Kona, Hilo) with the assistance of the KB.

=> i was aware (thanks to others players) that the fact there was no Pearl Raid leave my fleet in good shape, and that it could be used to counter an hawain invasion. So far, from what i've seen from recco, there are no bombers in Johnston to start a blockade of Pearl.


Based on the information provided to date, on the balance of probabilities I doubt that an Hawaiian invasion is forthcoming.  Of more importance is that sending a division to garrison Lahaina is most unlikely to deter or adequately defend Hawaii from a January/February 1942 invasion.  Consider these factors in support of my tentative conclusion:

(d)  by not launching the 7 December Pearl Harbor strike, the entire American fleet and airforce is available to interdict the long SLOC to any of the bases captured in (c) above,
(e)  Japan only needs one (two at the most) of the bases listed in (c) above in order to effect a close air blockade (combined with the long range air blockade from Johnston Island) of Pearl Harbor.  Consequently if you only garrison Lahaina but leave Kona/Hilo weak, the enemy merely captures them instead of Lahaina.  You simply do not have the resources (nor would it be a good use of them if you did) to strongly garrison all the Hawaiian bases.
For the time being you should merely garrison the key Hawaiian bases witha battalion equivalent to:

(f)  prevent their capture by enemy paratroopers, and
(g)  provide you with time to rush in (via Fast Transport/air transport) reinforcements against a naval landing

=> an inf div in Lahaina was an idea i had because Kona/Hilo are base to be developped, giving time for me to bomb them or to hurt the resupplying TF if ever a Jap land on these points, but Lahaina is already a good airport (level 4 airfield already).
Adding to the thinking: If it would be unwise for the japs to go for the Hawain with Pearl intact, if Johnston has been seized, and if 6 japanese div are not seen anywhere, what could be the future? I try to think of it but can't see what...DEI should have been started before, as for Philippinas or even China or Malaya. So ?
A SoPac offensive to totaly cut West Coast and Australia ??? That's my biggest fear/interrogation


(2)  In early 1942, the coastal north Australian bases (Broome, Derby, Wyndham and Darwin) can not be held against a determined Japanese invasion.  Because Japanese players:

(a)  know the vulnerability of these bases and the difficulties attached to any offensive operations launched from them aimed at conquering Australia,
(b)  usually attach a higher priority to either terminating early the Malaya/Phillipines campaigns, or capturing the high oil value bases in the DEI,
(c)  plan their 3rd wave of offensives to be either an Indian invasion or moving down the Solomons/New Hebrides/New Caledonia to cut off the West Coast-Australia SLOC,

the Allied player more often than not is given sufficient time to march overland Australia Command restricted brigades to garrison the northern bases.  It is a mistake to garrison the northern bases with brigades on whom PPs have been spent to make them sea mobile.  It is a mistake because:

(d)  garrisoning Derby and not the other northern coastal bases too achieves nothing (note the similar comments made under (1)(e) above)
(e)  it is a misallocation of PPs to defend the indefensible
(f)  having wasted those PPs, there are strategically far better places to send the sea mobile brigade.

=> Advice well hurd...gee, i didn't thought i was so bad a Commander in Chief. The idea to bring a brigade in Derby was, well, to help defend North Australia with much more than a few battalion and escaped dutch base force.
If the brigade should be put somewhere, so, where ? Putting in Java seem to leave Derby empty, and not really to strengthen the island position....Will think about this, thank you.


(3)  Have you checked that you have appropriate leaders for your air units.  As you are currently experiencing a shortage of PPs, you should concentrate your PP expenditure on having the correct air leaders (one of the most cost effective ways to spend PPs).  Ensure fighter units are led by leaders rated best for air combat, bomber units are led by bomber experrts etc.  Try to have frontline units with high morale leaders.  Examine all air units (include transport, patrol, recon, rear area units) of all countries (do not overlook Dutch and Chinese units).

=> Not a bad idea, as it is some of the more frustrating part of my game right now. I have read many AAR or Posts in "war room" forum saying that the planes will, in a few weeks, gain experience and start to hits things. Well, i've had a few experience, but i really would like to see some hits.
A point to explain lack of result: there are no Transport TF in range of my planes (considering Singapore airport damaged, Kuching not enough air support), so they usually attack Combat TF; rather then aiming small DD wich would suffer from even a 250lb bomb, my Martins and Blenheim aim cruiser....my Vildebeest are too short legged (and the swordfish are recompleting in Ceylon). There are a few B-17 in Soerebaja, but they prefer drop their bomb in water, and no japanese base are in range for them.


(4)  Your opponent concentrates his naval assets into large TFs.  You should do so too for your combat TFs.  Aim to have at least 15 ships (provided they are of similar speed) in your air/surface/bombardment TFs.

=> I would like to concentrate . Seriously, there is a lack of everything; i will say there is just one large Surface TF in Indian Ocean, from rendez vous of Force Z and Doorman cruisers. Of course Winston had already ask for a ship (CLAA).

(5)  I assume that you are aware of the early war limitations of Allied subs, so I will limit myself to a couple of points which you may have overlooked.  Regarding the combat effective classes, you should:

(a)  move each sub 1 hex every turn, even if it is from A to B back to A back to B back to A etc,
(b)  place them inside/just outside captured ports in order to firstly interdict enemy resupply convoys to its schwerpunkts, secondly to place your subs as far away as possible from the major concentrations of enemy air power, thirdly it provides vital intel, fourthly it improves the chances of rescuing downed Allied airmen and fifthly, it reduces the travel time to/from station for these subs which generally are short legged.

This leaves you with a fundamental decision to make regarding the combat impaired American subs.  With the exception of the 2 Dutch and 1 American dedicated minelayers (do not upgrade the American sub or you will lose its mine carrying capacity) which should be used to only lay minefields, the combat impaired American subs need to be concentrated into large TFs to conduct either transport or minelaying operations.  Personally I would choose transport operations because they can be so employed in the SRA on relatively short trips whereas if you opt for minelaying operations, they probably will need to be based at Pearl Harbor thereby increasing their to/from station travel times.

=> Was well aware of my subs capability for the US; some are mine laying: had succes, because 2 japs DD and an AP destroyed at Johnston by the sole use of this weapon ! More effective weapon of the war to date !. Others are making transport runs...i think my opponant can't imagine how many squads have been lifted this way from isolated places. I wish i had 50 more subs just for these secondary missions ! The S subs had been sunk in Philippinos after having try to intercept merchants TF. The dutch sub are trying to find japs TF, but not much successes to date.


(6)  Don't forget to conduct "shakedown" cruises in safe backwaters to improve crew experience levels.

(7)  Your DM and DMS destroyers are too valuable to be exposed in dangerous waters.  For the next few months use them exclusively in Hawaii under the cover of friendly air cover.
=> That's exactly what is done, and mines are laid all over the hawain. Job for scuba divers for 10 years after the war !

(8)  Either you received a very bad die roll when you lost 43 B-17s against 5 Zeros over Johnston Island, or the air raid was very poorly planned.  Make a note of which type of enemy air fighters are located at each base and what that type's ceiling is.  Try to fly unescorted bombers above the enemy fighter ceiling.  At the moment, you are probably better off sacrificing bombing accuracy for pilot survival (and consequent experience gain) by increasing altitudes.  Experience is gained quickly after each mission.

=> At this time we had a Sync Bug. The first result i saw was 9 zero for 28 bombers. After many replay and correcting the sync bug, the result was 5 zeros for 37 bombers, i think the 6 others crashed on the return way....These were B-17E, so their ceiling is not as high as B-17C. If "C" model i had, i would have fly higher then zeros, but it was "E" model, i decided to crush the airfield, thinking that a force of nearly 60 planes was enough (in fact 80 planes were ready, not all did fly....). So, bad luck , for sure, i think someone else looking at all my game since the beginning, and well, all my others game since 20 years, could prove it. Bad planning ? Why not, i am more and more thinking i am more stupid then i hoped.... i had recon on the place, i knew there was some zero on cap (trying to intercept my Coronado's reccon), but 60 zeros i didn't guess.

(9)  I assume you have PDUs on.  It is therefore important that you spread your airframe losses amongst your different aircraft models.  There are no useless Allied aircraft, even the Wirraway is useful if employed correctly, for example on naval/ground attack.  Every Allied plane which attacks a Japanese ship causes the enemy ship to increase its fuel consumption and this benefit occurs whether or not a bomb is dropped or the bomb bounces off the ship.  If enemy ship flak is too effective (something I find very surprising at this point in the war because Japanese ships, particularly their merchantmen, are not well endowed with AA), just fly higher.  Pilot experience is the key to more effective bombing and for that you need to improve pilot survival rates.  They will not improve if they keep on being killed off before they learn how to aim.

=> the term "useless" was, in fact, and to be honest ( and there is a saying here that's say : " a shame moment is so quickly away" ), because in different AAR i seen people having results with their planes. But thinking of it, maybe it's more AP/AK target they aim at. At first, i did fly 15000 ft to avoid flack. Having no results, i asked for advice on the forum, and received advice to get low on fly: 6000 feet or around. So i did try 6000 (or sometime 7000ft) but with no more hit rate. Just to clarify the hit rate i give yersterday: 0,5%; my daily work is statistics ....and from beginning of play, i note on a paper my raids, nbr of planes, nbr of hits....and reading this results i was so disgusted, hoping at first for a little 5% rate.....

(10)  In stock Allied AKs come in only two sizes, 4000 and 7000 tones, whereas there are three sizes for APs, 1500/3000/6000.  You should transport troops only in APs (using the load troops only command) for these reasons:

(a) the smaller size of the APs means you spend less time in port loading/unloading troops - thus you minimise the opportunities for the enemy to locate and then vector bombers against the TF,
(b)  the APs tend to have better AA - in fact British/Commonwealth 4000 ton AKs have no effective AA,
(c)  the APs tend to have a higher speed - with the obvious benefit of quicker travel times but also the less obvious benefit that if you add faster DDs or APDs for ASW protection, the combat ships are not so heavily speed penalised.  Use your slow MSWs as ASW escorts for the slow AK TFs.

=> Advice well receive. From previous turn, i usually put every ship in have in harbor to lift a unit, so it can embark troop and supply. Convoy of AK only are when there is supply only. On place lacking AP, well, some troops are aboard AK.

(11)  You have 2 Dutch air transport units.  Both have the range to reach Singapore from Dutch airfields.  Use them to fly supplies daily into Singapore whilst your opponent is not LRCAPing Singapore.  Dutch float plnese and bombers can also be used to fly in supply.  Singapore's Heavy Industry needs sea delivery of oil and resources to generate supply.  Provided the requisite raw materials are present, Heavy Industry continues to produce supplies even if enemy troops are present.

=> Was already trying to supply Singapore . But in two turns, a japanese Cap had destryed many planes. The total of these is probably around 10 trying to fly supply in the town....it's very few (i can't even see a change !). So i tried supplies convoy. The first, 2AK with 9000supplies, make it, and the 2 AK were sunk after delivering a good part of their supplies; 3 others attempts only lead to more then 8 AK sunken by misses Nell and Betty and Sally and Ann and all the others ugly japaneses girls, with the prowess of one AK landing 500 supply point before sinking in port...
i have to precise that these TF were LRCAPED by buffalos or P-40 ( a sqadron of AVG is in Singapore) but these were leaky CAP....
I will anyway try many more TF toward Singapore, because i feel a good amount of supply in there is important.



(12)  Be wary of which Dutch base forces you reassign to an unrestricted command and are set to receive reinforcements.  The Dutch naval base forces begin mobile but if they are allowed to receive reinforcements they will receive static guns which make the units immobile.
=> yes, already read this somewhere, so each time a dutch base force reach a remote place (i should probably not use the word "safe", so i use "remote" ), it is on the coast, where it will be always useful.

(13)  You receive several different types of Filipino infantry squads.  Whilst the rate is not large and their firepower is weak, you must rescue one Filipino unit of each infantry squad type in order to use up the pools.
=> For the time being, PP are to high for these troops. I will wait some beating of them before catching some, but it was indeed an advice you have already given in an AAR, and i was going to follow it as soon as possible.

Anyway these are some preliminary views.  When you get around to providing the additional info don't forget to provide details of how far down the Solomons the Japanese have gone.  It is still very early days in the war and I rather suspect that your opponent is not pursuing it vigorously.  The fact that you still retain all of Mindanao and Dutch Borneo, and probably retain air superiority over the Maccasar Strait, leaves open the tantalising prospect that you might be able to defeat completely the Japanese invasion of Luzon (need to see those screenshots and force dispositions etc).

=> I don't even dream of this ! No more AC in Philippinas: withdrawed after beating in the air/ground for 2 weeks. Some P-40 sqadrons disbanded in others sqadrons or groups, and remainder yet in Java, with a few B-17 ( a sqadron). No possibility to detter anything.
3 Days of fight at Naga, still resisting but fort dropped at zero tonight. 2 philippinos div and a tank batt against 2 japs divs,and a tank reg. Expected to fall in 3 days maximum. Japs coming toward Clark but it seems with few units in the north.


LAST NEWS (because i played one more turn with my opponant). On 4th of january, a landing occured on Gili Gili. 4 AP seen, covered by just a CVL, no idea of the amount of troops (65 disabled on landing), base will fall tomorrow. Of the 8 hudson in Port Moresby, 4 still alive (2 destroyed by CVL flack, 2 by cover of 7 zeros, no hit on anything). No others japs landing in Salomons (will try to give a screenshot this evening) except for Rbaul of course.

Alfred


And thanks for comments.
Edited for a few typpo

< Message edited by gladiatt -- 8/14/2009 1:45:19 PM >

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 9
RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:06:34 PM   
gladiatt


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So here are the first screen shot




in A, a few AK fleying from DEI with a few dutch BF or some resources.
in B, some convoy going to resupply Pearl.
in C, some convoy from australia, bound for West Coast.
CV are between B and C

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by gladiatt -- 8/14/2009 5:07:31 PM >

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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:09:29 PM   
gladiatt


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here is Hawain Island

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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:10:16 PM   
gladiatt


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like this maybe ?




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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:11:04 PM   
gladiatt


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Salomons




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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:11:43 PM   
gladiatt


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Malaya




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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:12:43 PM   
gladiatt


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And Java




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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:15:59 PM   
gladiatt


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So, even if no advice from Alfred or any one, it is a great day for me: i managed to put some screenshot on the forum !!!! (with nearly no help from Miss Gladiatt, great priestess of computer )

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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:20:49 PM   
flaggelant


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by those readings i wouldn't be to sure about KB's location, doesn'really sound like its at Johnston to me

lots of CA sightings everywhere, seems like he has none with KB? (maybe BB escorts instead) 


and see if you can get some swordfish, vildebeasts or other TB to bomb that TF south of Java, if there's no CV's over there, its a big mistake to go there without CAP! (and if there is CAP, at least you know about CV's from then on )

(in reply to gladiatt)
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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/14/2009 5:31:22 PM   
gladiatt


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quote:

ORIGINAL: flaggelant

by those readings i wouldn't be to sure about KB's location, doesn'really sound like its at Johnston to me

lots of CA sightings everywhere, seems like he has none with KB? (maybe BB escorts instead) 


and see if you can get some swordfish, vildebeasts or other TB to bomb that TF south of Java, if there's no CV's over there, its a big mistake to go there without CAP! (and if there is CAP, at least you know about CV's from then on )


Hi Flaggelant.
KB was around Johnston on 2 january: i saw the name of the datai that slaugtered my bombers ! almost 5 of them.
Vildebeast are trying to catch the TF south of Java, with T IV and Blenheim, and B-17; no hits . I think my opponant wether had get used with the fact that my LBA don't hit anything, or bet on the fact that the exp of the allies pilot is very low in the beginning of the war...More: a jap CVL is near Amboine, probably closing to South Java...

what could i say more?

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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/16/2009 11:08:01 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gladiatt


So, even if no advice from Alfred or any one, it is a great day for me: i managed to put some screenshot on the forum !!!! (with nearly no help from Miss Gladiatt, great priestess of computer )


Sorry gladiatt, but I have limited time to access the internet - often it is a matter of 3-4 days between internet visits.

I am currently just drafting some answers in response to your comments on my preliminary comments. I'll be focussing on "prime airfields", using Hawaii for illustrative purposes, and on supply lines through the Makassar Strait.

From looking at your posted screenshots, here are a few observations which I will expand on in a subsequent post.

(a) your position in Malaya is not as good as I thought it was
(b) I rather suspect that you are badly positioning your subs - generally you should not have more than 1 sub patrol per hex
(c) you have several LCUs located adjacent to bases - you should be moving them ASAP to the nearest Allied owned base
(d) your opponent is playing far too lethargically - unless he moves quickly to capture the key SRA bases within the next 4 weeks, there will be definite possibilities for the Allies to gain the initiative by March/April 1942

Alfred

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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/16/2009 11:30:17 AM   
gladiatt


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: gladiatt


Sorry gladiatt, but I have limited time to access the internet - often it is a matter of 3-4 days between internet visits.

I am currently just drafting some answers in response to your comments on my preliminary comments. I'll be focussing on "prime airfields", using Hawaii for illustrative purposes, and on supply lines through the Makassar Strait.

From looking at your posted screenshots, here are a few observations which I will expand on in a subsequent post.

(a) your position in Malaya is not as good as I thought it was
(b) I rather suspect that you are badly positioning your subs - generally you should not have more than 1 sub patrol per hex
(c) you have several LCUs located adjacent to bases - you should be moving them ASAP to the nearest Allied owned base
(d) your opponent is playing far too lethargically - unless he moves quickly to capture the key SRA bases within the next 4 weeks, there will be definite possibilities for the Allies to gain the initiative by March/April 1942

Alfred


Hi Alfred. There was no complain about the lack of answer : i am glad you give advice, and usually i like to say the people are free. I was just making a joke about my prowess of putting some screenshots !!
1)Malaya: i never said it was good. But i hope for a few time of resisting in Johore and Singapore (fort are growing here and i try to send some supplies).
2)When you see many subs on a single hex, that mean some are going on another place, or some are US subs trying to evacuate remnants of beaten troops, wich led to
3) the LCU around allied base are probably beaten units retreating from a position to another one (Near Rabaul, Kendari, Brunei and so on).
4) at first, during the two weeks beginning the war, i used to think my opponent showed a great naval activity. Now i am REALLY wondering what he is up to (english sentence ???)
because their is still 6 japanese divisions that i have not a clue of their position, Johnston had fallen, but it seems there is no effort now on DEI or Philippinas.
I say 6 japanese div unknown because everyone tell of 10 japs divs free for the pacific campaign, and i count 2 in Malaya, 2 in Naga-Philippinas : the rest of the japanese conquest are made by Nav Guards units or Brigades....

Anyway, thanks for interest and advice , i appreciate it

(in reply to Alfred)
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RE: Need of strategic advice- Jan please get out. - 8/17/2009 7:17:10 AM   
gladiatt


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Latest News :

Naga fall, january the 6th. 2 Japanese division, a Nav Guard and a Tank reg are beating 2 philippinos division and a US tank Battalion...

Georgetown fall, january 8th. 15e Indian Brigade (wich was isolated by the japanese moves in Malaya), Penang Fortress, ISF base and another base surrenders; 18500 mens leaded in camp, for the loss of 150 japaneses (probably disabled, not destroyed). The position was bombed by hundred of planes since 2 weeks, with airfield destroyed and unable to maintain a CAP of fighters, with supplies destroyed quickly, and once my fighters were gone, the bombing was on the troops, leading to strong disability.

South West of Java, a japanese TF with 3BB (Kongo, Haruna, ??) , 3 CA (Myoko), 3 DD, chasing AK and TK fleeing Java. The allied LBA are just Flack targets: many damaged, a few destroyed, still no hits on the japs ships...

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