From: Little England
So far against the AI the Japanese are being murderised on air and sea around the Philippines. British and American PT boats raid daily, you can walk from the PI to Formosa on the back of submarine hulls, and P-40s rip Miss Betty into little pieces whenever she shows her face. Houston and Boise spank any who fool around in the south, and a 20,000 supply point convoy from Soerabaja is now two hexes from Manila. The ground campaign goes well for the Japanese and I guess thats the main thing, but he is suffering for it.
I really wouldn't Sir Robin the PI based on this... The P-40 is a pretty acceptable fighter even in 1941 in AE. I get 1:2 against versus Zeroes, but against bombers they are lethal. Also it seems harder to eliminate them, sweeps aren't as bloody as they once were. I would say that absolute crushing air superiority over the Philippines from day 1 for the Japanese is no longer necessarily on the cards.
I think one major change is the lack of availability of fast transports. Basically the Allies can't do it anymore, they have a handful of ships capable of it. No more using cruisers to drop appreciable supply. I think this has quite a major impact not yet discussed. For example, Port Blair, without fast transports as an option, is now completely indefensible IMO. I would keep it garrisoned in WITP and supply it with expendable RN old cruisers like the Ceres class - dangerous runs, to be sure, but acceptable in my mind to keep Port Blair in beans and bullets. In AE this is simply no longer possible, you'll need to use AKs, and they will be blown away.