Shannon V. OKeets
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Hmmm...First off I would start out by cursing for not including Railway movement.
And as you can only get max 14 assault on Lodz i would wait with that, seeing that the Eng would be first loss.
I would probably Stuka Lodz, to flip the HQ, bomb the unit in Krakow, and then just splat the Cav, div and the 3-3, all +20 attacks, while taking out the fleet, and securing Katowice and the resource.
Risky assaults in Poland, with a good chance of loosing more than an INF, is just silly.
Both the Cav and the div are within striking distance of Prague, in 2 impulses, and it takes as many units +/- to kill them as to screen them.
It depends on the units available to attack Lodz.
I would be willing to risk a 10% chance of failure to destroy both units in Lodz. That's because it gives me a 90% chance of holding Lodz at the end of the first impulse. Not only does that make Warsaw likely to fall on the third impulse, it also means I can start sending units west on impulse 3 and almost everyone else (that's not disorganized) on impulse 5.
If you put off taking Lodz until Imp 3, then Warsaw can't be taken until Imp5 and you will not have anyone in the west until the second turn. That really looks like not much happening in Nov/Dec and bad weather coming in Jan/Feb - extending in Mar/Apr.
If the attack on Lodz fails, well, then the Germans are going to be mucking around in Poland for the rest of the first turn. Which leads to the same scenario as in the paragraph preceding.
What you seem to be cautious about is taking casualties in Poland ('silly'). I would be more likely to depair about having my units spend another turn in Poland before they can attack in the west. A few build points here and there isn't a big deal for the Germans, while giving France and the CW another turn that they can hold onto Paris is a very big deal. Just my opinion.
Perfection is an elusive goal.