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Quick Italy Exploit AAR

 
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Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 6:42:47 AM   
Lucky1

 

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This AAR is further to Schury's initial post http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=1927475. Although by this point, we are preaching to the converted, it will be a bit instructive to demonstrate the early exploit and one of two responses I could come up with.

The first possible response to Italy's early DOW is to do nothing. As Forwarn mentions, Southern France remains frozen and is thus under-garrisoned and vulnerable to immediate overrun (esp if paratroops are used). This option is not particularly a pleasant one because it knocks France out of the war in September 1939 and provides Germany with W and E France (undamaged!) This (as is Schury's point) is a massive blow to the Allied cause and leaves Germany in a position to have a huge production jump. Furthermore, when Yugo is liquidated (with ease), Hungary, Rumania and Bulgaria come online as full Axis!!!! In Fall 1939!

The second possible response is to reinforce Southern France. The only way to do this is to DOW Italy (Albania). UGH. This provides Italy with Insta-militia (joy) in return for the loss of Albania. Not a good trade. Furthermore, the US WR drops by 10 leaving it nicely in the negatives. That said, this does make it possible to reinforce S France somewhat - certainly enough to repel an attack in Fall 1939. Too, the French fleet in Southern France is able to leave port for use (target practice) in the central med.

When I initially was questioning the efficacy of Schury's strategy, I was making two erroneous assumptions. The first was that one could provision Southern France. The second was that if Southern France were to fall, the Southern French Navy and other French Navy at sea would not disappear as occurs with the establishment of Vichy. Unfortunately, this is not the case. If Southern France falls, Vichy is not created and the North African territories remain WA (I forgot to look at French Indo China). BUT, the fleet disappears. So, even when reinforcing S France (via Italian DOW) a turn or to (at best) is bought in exchange for a bad WA WR and a few overseas territories. Of course, the Axis gets extra production, extra units and quick access to the Balkans.... Not really a good deal, but perhaps better than option one. (Not sure)

I did what I could to reinforce S France, but this comes at a cost to reinforcing other territories..... I chose to not reinfoce Yugo, given the large German force that would be able to neutralize what I had before I could threaten Rumania next turn.... Limited troops and transport also had something to do with this decision as well as the fact that they would be more subject to isolation. That said, it might have been a more viable strategy to reinforce Yugo vigorously and provide S France with the minimum necessary to withstand attack. Choices. Since I have never been confronted with this one before, I may have chosen incorrectly.....

I personally would recommend changes to Yugo's volatility (0) to eliminate the possibility of the exploit altogether, but discussion is ongoing....
Anyhow, conceding that the strat is an uber-exploit, herewith a screenshot of my turn:




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Lucky1 -- 1/19/2009 7:34:43 AM >
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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 7:56:45 AM   
Lucky1

 

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Here is an alternate response to Schury's opener. I probably could have gotten an extra unit to Yugo depending on whether I played a lot with various transport configurations.... That said, I am not sure that it would make much of a difference. Perhaps this strategy would be more effective than the first. A lot would depend on how easily Yugo falls.... In both instances, Africa, Cairo, Gibraltar, and India were denuded along with most of England. In any event, both versions have been sent to Schury.... Perhaps he will demonstrate how (in) effective they were. Since he is obviously well-versed with his strategy, I think it would only be sporting to allow me to proceed with the most effective response (not that it will matter, in my opinion).








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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 8:55:48 AM   
schury

 

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OK, since I thought Lucky is not a equavilent foe, I agree that he can change his mind and improve his first turn with a new counter strike. But I do hope this is the last time YOU SEND ME TWO SAV FILE IN ONE TURN. That wastes my time.
According to allies moves, they garrison YOG to solidate there positions. Lucky think this would buy him time and space to get more bet to negotiate. But the truth is he got beaten even harder than the first time. Germen kicked allied force in YOG to the sea and wrecked 3 trans. Two UK factories damaged, the cost is one reich HB back to the factory. Also one chinese factory damaged.






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< Message edited by schury -- 1/19/2009 9:00:32 AM >


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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 8:57:22 AM   
Lucky1

 

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Ok. Schury sent me a response where I had reinforced france rather than Yugo. I don't know how the other scenario panned out, but I instinctively did not like reinforcing Yugo because I was dividing my forces 4 ways, rather than three ways (allowing for blitz through Belgium next turn). But this lack of aggression on my part, might be why I am a mediocre player.... Anyhow, to the situation at hand.

Schury is in a position to threaten British East Africa (evacuated) as well as Morrocco. He already took Algeria and Tunisia. All available troops except aa in Scotland (he strat bombed England last turn for two hits) and aa and arty in England are moved to France. I forgot that winter was next, so I might have taken the arty as well... I did not have enough transport to get my units off Malta, but again I might have been able if I did an immense amount of fiddling. Part of the problem is that his air in Sicily op-fired against transport to the West Med. Anyhow, Southern France was reinforced the most, leaving Eastern France slightly vulnerable (but fortified) as well as Western France. I am not good enough without the odds calculator to say whether I over-garrisoned Western France (hit by para and two armour). I would say that S France is the most vulnerable, but I am not completely sure. Lets see if mother winter helps.... French troops and arty are at the max possible evasion/attack....

If I were playing as though my life depended on it, I would have withdrawn my British troops and ceded the South (if only to make Schury repair more).

I am glad my life does not depend on it!








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< Message edited by Lucky1 -- 1/19/2009 9:02:57 AM >

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 9:02:33 AM   
Lucky1

 

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Ah, I was writing while he was posting.
Schury - I thought the purpose of the AAR was to show how devastating the strategy was. I sent two turns because I actually thought of a third possible response that we should show for the purposes of the AAR. I have conceded that your trick is an exploit - a devastating one - and think that there is only one likely outcome. That said, I am glad you demonstrated the folly of the Yugo garrisson - a strategy that I thought would not work.



< Message edited by Lucky1 -- 1/19/2009 9:03:42 AM >

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 9:07:33 AM   
schury

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucky1

Ah, I was writing while he was posting.
Schury - I thought the purpose of the AAR was to show how devastating the strategy was. I sent two turns because I actually thought of a third possible response that we should show for the purposes of the AAR. I have conceded that your trick is an exploit - a devastating one - and think that there is only one likely outcome. That said, I am glad you demonstrated the folly of the Yugo garrisson - a strategy that I thought would not work.



dude, try thinking before moves. It's an AAR. You should not reload as many times as you want. You have removed once, I don't think you should do that every turn. If you are not capable of doing it,say it and I am not gonna watse my time here. You said you are not agree with me, so Play, not crazy reload, a good game to prove me wrong.If you can't stick to the rule that no reload is allowed, then I think I probablely should not play with you. I really wanna fight somebody who do understand the importance of this rule.

< Message edited by schury -- 1/19/2009 9:12:45 AM >


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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 9:49:18 AM   
Lucky1

 

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quote:

Schury - I am still game to be a whipping boy for public demonstration of the strat. I can't say I have a lot of emotional investment in wins/losses (or I would not volunteer to be allies as often as I do), so it won't bother me to lose in public.... Plus, I think AARs keep interest in the community and are a good way to teach new players. It can be fun to dissect a game after the fact to identify critical issues etc. So, if you still have the time/interest in early Feb (when I am back from holiday), send me an email.


Schury, I think you have mis-understood what I have said. I DO AGREE WITH YOU. I said that as soon as I found that there is no reinforcing France without DOW on Italy.  Please read my messages carefully and without ego (I could care less if I win or lose a video game - and so should you). If you wish a regular AAR, that is fine. I am surprised that you have such emotional investment in a game involving what you and I and most others reading agree is an exploit.

What I thought this AAR was trying to show was that even under the best circumstances, your exploit is devastating to the Allies and should result in amendments to the game.

As you see in my prior post, I have already completed my turn. Take S. France and be done with it. If I had gone with my Yugo reinforcement strategy, you would get France in Spring 1940. BUT In either circumstance, the WA has been severely set back. The US WR is at -2, 1/2 of Africa is lost and The Balkans are securely in your grip. I see this as nigh insurmountable, but would have played the game out to satisfy your craving for victory. At this juncture, I think your point would be amply made by simply showing the results of your next turn. I would have liked to show the results of the two possible strategies, but I no longer think this worth the effort.

< Message edited by Lucky1 -- 1/19/2009 9:54:01 AM >

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 9:55:49 AM   
schury

 

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OK.I am looking for fighting against Forwarn, which is a good player. You are the one said that "beggers are not choosers". So I have to fight you after your several posts asking for it.
The way ppl do so called exploit is that they use their best moves to fight back their foes. You, on the contrary, try different moves and choose the best move as the one represent your move for the turn. Very brilliant thought. But I DON'T LIKE THE WAY YOU RELOAD AND RESEND DIFFERENT TURNS. NOW I just want your promise that you move after careful thinking,ONE SAV PER TURN and NO reload to see which one get punched less hard, ok? If you are promised to abide the rules, I'll go on fighting you. 
If you are not able to present your best move without reload, and keep resending multiple SAVs, I see no reason I should continue this game with you. I am sorry.

< Message edited by schury -- 1/19/2009 10:06:07 AM >


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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 10:27:29 AM   
Lucky1

 

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Schury:

1) You were the one who raised this strategy stating that it unbalanced the game. I think it highly unlikely that the game developers intended for France to be knocked out and the Balkans conquered by autumn 1939. As such, I think it fair to say that you are the one who raised this issue as 'an exploit'. I AM GLAD YOU RAISED IT, AS I AM SEEKING TO IMPROVE THE GAME - EVEN STOCK SCENARIOS.

2) I initially did not grasp the consequences of your initial thread. It was a bit oblique and despite a few requests for you to explain the consequences of the exploit, you refrained from doing so.

3) When I understood the implications of the strategy, I conceded that it was a very strong, imbalancing strategy.

4) I said that I don't mind losing and that it would be nice to visually demonstrate the strategy in a AAR

5) In my first AAR post I stated that this was in my mind an uber strat and I started to explore possible responses -- all of which I suggested to be deficient.

6) I am willing to play the game out, although I think the strategy has made it a foregone conclusion.

I would ask what your goal with this AAR is? Is it to demonstrate that you are a better player? I would concede that you undoubtedly are, but you actually know nothing about my current playing ability. Although I consider them to be superiour players, I have recently beat Marshall Art and RJH and Tim Carter. They in turn have beat me worse - but this is beside the point. This is not a tournament? My goal with the AAR is to have some fun with the game with a new opponent and contribute to AWD's improvement (although, I would argue that Global Glory is far superior to the stock scenario - but this is a matter of preference, I suppose). I guess all that I am asking is that you demonstrate how much damage you can do with your strat (and I think it can deal a lot, no matter what the response) for the next turn or so. After that, depending on how much I am boring you, you can elect to proceed or not.


< Message edited by Lucky1 -- 1/19/2009 10:32:53 AM >

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 10:44:53 AM   
schury

 

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Lucky1, I don't wanna read your huge articles. I only read the main point, you know what, I don't care how good or bad you are, since you can't give the promise that you won't reload again. I don't think I wanna write this AAR. AAR MEANS AFTER ACTION REPORT NOT RELOAD REPORT. It seems that you should put this article in the war room instead of a serious AAR. If you wanna practice and have fun, we can play , but I don't wanna do such an "AAR", this just makes me feel like I am a cheating accessary.

< Message edited by schury -- 1/19/2009 10:48:39 AM >


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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 11:12:51 AM   
Lucky1

 

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Cheating involves male fides - bad intent. Most 'cheaters' attempt to hide their wrongdoing. I have been clear and forthright with what I have been doing. So do not be rude.

I think the purpose of this AAR will be amply demonstrated by your next turn (if you even bother to post it in support of your argument). Unless you have a stroke of incredible bad luck, France will fall, the US will still probably not be producing, the UK will have almost no units, and a number of resources in Africa will have been damaged.

As I was hoping we would demonstrate, adding a couple of units in France may fall a bit short of a solution. Having the Balkans and Italy coming online in 1939 brings extra units, resources and access to pressure points. I would again suggest that looking at Yugo volatility....






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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 11:15:05 AM   
Lucky1

 

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Thank you for your time.

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 3:49:04 PM   
rjh1971


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quote:

ORIGINAL: schury

dude, try thinking before moves. It's an AAR. You should not reload as many times as you want. You have removed once, I don't think you should do that every turn. If you are not capable of doing it,say it and I am not gonna watse my time here. You said you are not agree with me, so Play, not crazy reload, a good game to prove me wrong.If you can't stick to the rule that no reload is allowed, then I think I probablely should not play with you. I really wanna fight somebody who do understand the importance of this rule.


Schury man take it easy, leave the agressiveness for the gym.

quote:


Original Schury:

OK.I am looking for fighting against Forwarn, which is a good player. You are the one said that "beggers are not choosers". So I have to fight you after your several posts asking for it.
The way ppl do so called exploit is that they use their best moves to fight back their foes. You, on the contrary, try different moves and choose the best move as the one represent your move for the turn. Very brilliant thought. But I DON'T LIKE THE WAY YOU RELOAD AND RESEND DIFFERENT TURNS. NOW I just want your promise that you move after careful thinking,ONE SAV PER TURN and NO reload to see which one get punched less hard, ok? If you are promised to abide the rules, I'll go on fighting you.
If you are not able to present your best move without reload, and keep resending multiple SAVs, I see no reason I should continue this game with you. I am sorry.


You're looking for it...

quote:


Original: Schury

Lucky1, I don't wanna read your huge articles. I only read the main point, you know what, I don't care how good or bad you are, since you can't give the promise that you won't reload again. I don't think I wanna write this AAR. AAR MEANS AFTER ACTION REPORT NOT RELOAD REPORT. It seems that you should put this article in the war room instead of a serious AAR. If you wanna practice and have fun, we can play , but I don't wanna do such an "AAR", this just makes me feel like I am a cheating accessary.


What's your problem? No need to be rude, or so it looks like

quote:


Original: Lucky1

Thank you for your time.


You got what you were asking for, too bad

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/19/2009 6:25:23 PM   
schury

 

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I am serious. Either you obey the rule to do an AAR, or move this to the war room where you can do your try and error without get me annoyed.
Reload means cheating in an AAR. Have you ever seen any other reloaded AAR on purpose?  No matter why you do it, it is still cheating.
Why do you have to reload? why can't you evaluate all the pros and cons before make your final decision? I mean if you are not capable of doing this, which is a premise to this game, I think you may need more practice before playing a PBEM game.
I am sorry when I am facing somebody with firm "legal" excuse to reload and reload, I get annoyed.


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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/22/2009 6:40:58 AM   
WanderingHead

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: schury
I am sorry when I am facing somebody with firm "legal" excuse to reload and reload, I get annoyed.


As noted, you are overreacting. Lucky1 clearly stated what he was doing and why. If you don't like it, you could politely ask him once not to do it and the matter could be over.

I wouldn't normally say anything, and I know that I still shouldn't, but I find this amusing since you have to play the first German turn on average 3 times to get Yugo to swing.

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/22/2009 8:56:35 AM   
rjh1971


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quote:

ORIGINAL: WanderingHead

I wouldn't normally say anything, and I know that I still shouldn't, but I find this amusing since you have to play the first German turn on average 3 times to get Yugo to swing.




(couldn't resist my apologises beforehand)

Brian implementing the Allied player to send the first turn when pbem, would solve the problem, it was done in War Between the States, iirc you were going to do it.


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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/22/2009 5:53:42 PM   
schury

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: WanderingHead

As noted, you are overreacting. Lucky1 clearly stated what he was doing and why. If you don't like it, you could politely ask him once not to do it and the matter could be over.

I wouldn't normally say anything, and I know that I still shouldn't, but I find this amusing since you have to play the first German turn on average 3 times to get Yugo to swing.



I can tolerate ppl play against some rules. But if it comes to the moderator, I'll go serious. Wall street collapsed just because of irresponsibility. IMHO, your view is partial, instead of fair as a moderator. I have already stop the post in the main discussion because of bias, or say blind to certain things and focus on judging ppl without mentioning anything related to the topic. But you are here again in an AAR. I think you are out of the boundary. If you wanna play mean, I'll definitely follow you. As noted, I have clearly stated what I am doing and why. So do not overreact. If you don't like it, you could politely ask him once not to do it and the matter could be over.

First of all, you have bias. I don't know whether RELOAD should happen in an AAR, but you didn't seem to have any problem with Lucky's reload. So I presume you are OK with somebody reloading before telling their foe, and still refusing to stop after their foe's opposition. Very cheerful Moderator position. What Lucky said is what he said. I never agree that there's necessary to reload. As I stated, before given the privilege to reload, everybody should stick to the basic rule of an AAR. And you are breaking it by judging it according to your own resentment. Good job! However, as his foe, I speaks louder than you.
Even if one do wanna multiple choices, he should at least agree to finish one and put some comments before starting another, instead, what Lucky did was comparing to find the less damaged outcome, and play based on that file. Why don't you put some comments on that, instead of being blind to that, before your so called "overreacting"? Do you wanna apply high moral standards just on me? Get a mirror!

Secondly, you are so innocent that you don't even know the rule that frozen S.France can't be reinforced after activated. When you said that Forwarn told you this is very helpful for you to get my point of the strategy and rebalance the game, I was shocked. It was supposed to be a common sense. I kinda over-estimated you then.I am with the opinion that we should at least understand what we are talking about. I thought it's the premise for discussion. But it seems that I was wrong. I hope next time you can read the manual, at least try to read and understand some important points you are arguing.

Thirdly, I am not as you, who's too busy to make a experimentation before telling ppl the "truth". Maybe I am not polite enough, but I am responsible and objective. I tested this strategy for many times before I told the story and try not to mislead the others. And I sent Lucky one of the opening I tested to be a good example. Does that explain the Yog swing thing?

Forthly, are you trying to mess up starting new game with reloading? Are they exactly the same? Or just an excuse for you to judge ppl?

Fifthly, if you think this is a bug to cause moral problem, why don't you fix it as what rjh1971 suggested above? (I presume you carry the responsibility.)

Sixfthly, I wouldn't normally say this, and I know that I still shouldn't, but I find this amusing since I am so wanna meet your math teacher, because I don't know if one have to play the first German turn on average 3 times, or 2 times, to get Yugo to swing. Could you ask him or her for me?

< Message edited by schury -- 1/22/2009 7:13:14 PM >

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/22/2009 10:00:12 PM   
WanderingHead

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: schury
Sixfthly, I wouldn't normally say this, and I know that I still shouldn't, but I find this amusing since I am so wanna meet your math teacher, because I don't know if one have to play the first German turn on average 3 times, or 2 times, to get Yugo to swing. Could you ask him or her for me?


Or is the answer 2.777777777777777 plays?

The probability of Yugo flipping when you attack Denmark is p=.36 (0.6^2). The expected value of the number of plays before this occurs is:
sum{n=0:inf}(p*(1-p)^n*(1+n)) = 1/p = 1/.36 = 2.7777777.

I sort of handwaved and called 0.36~=1/3.

What do you think it is?

schury, everyone has been polite here except you. You claim I am not being responsibly unbiased, but if anything my responsibility would be to shut down your unwarranted attacks against everyone else. I'm not a Matrix employee, I don't know Matrix's policy on trolls, but if it keeps up I'll bring it to the attention of a Matrix moderator to see what they want to do about it.

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/22/2009 10:20:21 PM   
schury

 

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WHATEVER

< Message edited by schury -- 1/22/2009 10:54:33 PM >


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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/22/2009 10:27:17 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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Let's relax and discuss this calmly.

Schury, it's clear to me that Lucky was not trying to sneak anything by you. You may not want him to tangent off from the game and start analyzing things when he sees something like that, I can understand that, but as WH said, just ask him to stop or to analyze it in a separate new game and that should be that. If he doesn't and you don't like it, tell him politely that the game is over and get a different opponent, that's how it works. Given the way he did it, I don't think it's reasonable to assume that his intention was to cheat, I agree that there's no reason for him to do that publicly if that were his actual goal.

Ultimately, there's no need for all this agitation. I'd suggest stepping back, then re-reading Lucky's replies when you're feeling calm and I think you'll see that there was some overreaction on your part.

Regards,

- Erik

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RE: Quick Italy Exploit AAR - 1/22/2009 10:41:02 PM   
schury

 

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Thanks, your comment sounds fair and reasonable.
Maybe I am not using proper words in my replys. I was not furious, just be annoyed when Lucky don't want to make the promise his not reload again. So I just wanna use those rules to bring him back to the right track. There and then I talked like a judge, and not very polite. I can accept I was aggressive. But I don't agree I am attacking PPL. Until now I still believe reload on purpose is cheating no matter what it for. That's just different opinion. You guys can be tolerant to different opinion, right? And I believe one always have other ways to work it out without reload in an AAR, Am I wrong?
I will surely step back. As a matter of fact, we have already done this until Brian come with some potential charge which he thought is "amusing". I have to tell him the truth come from practice, which is not what he think.
Thanks

< Message edited by schury -- 1/22/2009 10:46:55 PM >


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