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Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

 
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Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 1:24:50 AM   
John 3rd


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From: La Salle, Colorado
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Good Day to all the Forum Readers!

Grand Campaign--Big B--1.4--PDU On

I am doing something different with this AAR. I am beginning it seven months into a campaign against my longtime opponent--going back to UV--Dan Roper (Canoerebel). Dan is a good man and worthy foe. What I would like to do is focus this AAR at the point of where we are: June 11, 1942. Manila and Pago-Pago just fell and the Japanese have reached the possible zenith of their power.

The war, as it should, has gone nearly all my direction so far and the Japanese Empire is at a crossroads of decision. The Rising Sun shines upon the entire Pacific from Burma in the west to Canton Island--Midway in the east and from Cold Harbor--Dutch Harbor in the north to Noumea--Suva--Papeate in the south.

The only Allied possessions left are:

North--Kodiak and all points east
East--Johnston, Hawaii, and Palmyra
South--New Zealand and Daly Waters south and east in Australia
West--Mandalay and Akyab

All of SE China has be cleansed and numerous Japanese Brigades have been assigned from here to Pacific duty.

I know that Dan has kept up an AAR from the beginning and I think now is the perfect time for me to start contributing my thoughts about direction and purpose from the Japanese perspective.

This is a kind of sper-of-the-moment decision to start this AAR and I am waiting for a turn from Dan so I can post a VP, ships sunk, and economic update. Let me touch on some broad points and then I will start a comprehensive update once I get the round from my opponent.

Changing Strategy and Current Situation
I decided from the very beginning to play this campaign in a somewhat different manner. I knew that Dan had read all my previous AAR and was getting inside information from my good opponent NY Giants 59 (Michael Benoit) so I decided to try and change my tactics:

a. The Kido Butai--Normally I split this powerful formation into 3 major TF and gradually add new construction to it. This normally allows me to place Carrier TF with 200-300 planes in 2-3 places at once. While usually this works pretty well--it has cost me. In my AAR against Mandrake I lost Junyo, Hiyo, Zuiho, Ryujo due to them running into 3 US CV. I am not doing that again.

In this campaign, I have kept the 6 starting CV together in three TF operating as one unit. To this I have added a CVL to each TF. The KB is now 6 CV and 2 CVL fielding a formidable 201 Zero, 138 Val, and 189 Kate. All these Daitai have been in the thick of it and carry experience ratings ranging from the high-60s (the CVLs) to high-80s. These CVs are operating together and I will not split them apart.

Separate of this formation is Junyo-Hiyo currently operating around Papeate and 2 CVL with 4 CVE at Soerabaja. The DEI Force has been commerce raiding periodically.

b. Japanese Air Force--normally I allow myself to get caught in aerial battles of attrition that leave me in so-so shape by the summer of 1942. Usually this occurs over Burma or Australia. I have not allowed this to take place. The Japanese Air Force is in exceptional shape having come off of months of bombing milk runs over the Philippines, Pago-Pago, Darwin, Katherine, and--now--Daly Waters. I am not dispursing my effort and using my planes for maximum punch with minimim casualties.

c. Kaigun--My Fleet is in exceptional shape. I have not lost A SINGLE heavy unit to this point in the war. I'll post the exact numbers when I get the next turn. Additionally, I have made a point of rotating my ships into Japanese Home Ports for their System Damage to be kept under control. The Kaigun is tan, rested, and ready.

d. Imperial Army

North Pacific--In the biggest surprise of the war, Dan and I have had a Meeting Engagement in the Aleutians. I originally planned to take Kiska and Attu and then dig in. Dan countered and we had some small scale naval and aerial fights over these islands. I countered with a China Brigade and several larger SNLF and took Dutch Harbor and then Umnak. Cold Harbor fell and I have been holding there with the force commitment just described.

Central and SE Pacific--I have taken the Pacific with about 10 Brigades pulled out from China. All that I used to start the war with was the South Seas Force, 35th Brigade, and one full Infantry Division. The Chinese Brigades gradually, as Political Points allowed, filtered into the fight. Pago-Pago just fell on June 10th and I have 8-9 Brigades about to be spread throughout the Pacific for garrisions.

Australia--I bounced the NW portion of Australia very quickly after Timor fell. This did not allow my opponent to get TOO dug in. I now have the equivalent of 5 Infantry Divisions with a large set of support units converging on Daly Waters.

Burma--I HATE CBI! I have 3 Infantry Divisions and 2 Tank Brigades holding the line below Mandalay.

Philippines--Manila fell today--June 11, 1942--and I have nearly 250,000 available, highly trained troops...


I start this AAR with the question of what to do next? I have all those troops in Manila and WILL use them! The option of sitting still is NOT the right answer. To use Robert E. Lee's adage "if the enemy is there--then I will attack him." For those who are Civil War scholars you do not need to remind of this being used at Gettysburg!

Strategic Options:
1. Alaska--Massively reinforce this theatre and take Anchorage as well as Kodiak and all points nearby.

Advantages--Very probably a successful strategy. Dan is trying to reinforce this theatre and I have slowly moved the KB into a striking position looking for convoys and US Fleet units SE of Anchorage...

Disadvantages--Dead-In theatre of operations. No real stregic/economic benefit.

2. New Zealand--I LOVE attacking this place! With my southwards and SE moves, I don't think Dan has gotten many reinforcements here. Probably normal NZ units plus a pair of American Infantry Divisions.

Advantages--Showy target with ability to cut the US--Aussie supply lines. Could rack up a lot of Victory Points.

Disadvantages--Have already cut this line with grabbing Papeate--Bora-Bora.

3. Australia--Already rolling here and have been pushing the Aussies backwards for the last 4-5 weeks.

Advantages--Here is industry, supply, and resources.

Disdvantages--Even with ALL of Manila's troops, I doubt if there will be enough to take the WHOLE continent!

Those are my foremost strike options. What might you think?


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/20/2007 1:32:41 AM >


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RE: Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 2:26:00 AM   
Feinder


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NZ - That's a long way south.  While yes, it does interdict Allies to Oz, it's a long way for you to haul supplies, with ample opportunity for the Allies to interdict -you-.

Oz - Do you actually -need- the supply-resources in Oz?  Why not just bomb them and get the vps and make life otherwize unpleasent for the Ozzionians?

Alaska - The problem with Alaska is that, there are lot of bases to defend.  It cuts both ways.  Allies can not defend tht all, so you can capture them in detail.  It is good to "deny him the northern route".  But also consider that when push comes to shove in 1944 (and you're getting shoved), can you mount a useful defense?  Probably so.  But make your attack with a defense in 1944 in mind.  You can't defend all those islands in Alaska (just like Allies couldn't earlier).  He'll just attack where you're not, build every the AF(1) to AF4(1) and bomb the snot out of you and kill you in detail (just like you did to him in 1942).  So there -is- a point to invading the Aleutions (and maybe Alaska) - it buys you time.  But just when do, think about how you want your guys to die, because they -will- die.

I dunno.  I guess I'm conservative.  If you realistically can -WIN- in 1943, ambitious land grabs are maybe worth it.  But keeping that in my mind, if you're not going to win outright in 1943, you need consider that your -NOT- going to win in 1944 - and therefore should take the stance of (IMO) -

"As Japan, I need to either win big 1943, or do everything I can (from war's start) to NOT LOSE in 1945."

In my (CHS) game vs. Bilbow, I consider that mantra before doing any sort of operation.  Will whatever I'm doing either contribute to a big win in 1943, or more likely, help me to NOT LOSE in 1945.  If it doesn't fit into that frame of mind, it's not worth doing.

-F-

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RE: Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 2:49:45 AM   
John 3rd


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Good Evening Feinder!

If I go by that advice and PLAN on an attack, the eastiest--and least dangerous with 1945 in mind--is the Ausie attack.  I only use more troops and NOT the Fleet.  Can still do things in the Pacific while the battle rages in Australia...


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RE: Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 5:52:00 AM   
ny59giants


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Great Idea!!!
I can use this AAR to gain more insight into my opponent using my "vast" counseling skills and "superior" powers of discernment.

I feel that your game as in every other game will be decided by what happens with Japan vs. USA. All other theaters of operation - India, China, Australia, etc., are just side shows to the main event. Unless you suffer a major defeat in one of these theaters, they will not decide the outcome. Thus, your plans should be focused on the USA.

Alaska - I concur with Feinder that there are too many bases here and he will eventually use his massive amount of LBA to roll you back. Going here just delays the counteroffensive.

Australia - it is a large land combat which favors the Japanese (land combat and attrition in this area favors the Japanese through most of the war). However, it does nothing against the USA.

New Zealand - with your capture of French Polynesia, you have already cut off his LOC with Oz/Nz. What more do you gain?? In RHS with the shipping channels, it would be just one more area I can attack you. With Andrew's map, it isn't as important with Bora Bora area captured.

Due to Dan's loss in CV's you still have KB and Co. to use to your advantage to inflict more damage to him and push him back further.

MY choice to attack is....
<drum roll, please>
HAWAII - with everthing else you own, its capture will mean he will need to counterattack with the USA using his CV's anywhere but Alaska (which you can spend more effort defending knowing that the rest of the east Pacific requires him to use CV's to get to you). As it stands now, your CV force is superior until mid-43 and then goes down from there as American production kicks into high gear. Allowing him to hold there and the Line Islands means he can attack from more points.

If this game was on RHS level 7 maps, he would probably not have lost his 2 CV's as he could have taken the long way home. After the limited experience in our game, I will not start another new game on anything but that map (or what they will become in AE). That map changes strategies for the Allied player as well as the Japanese.



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RE: Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 7:53:18 AM   
ctangus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I feel that your game as in every other game will be decided by what happens with Japan vs. USA. All other theaters of operation - India, China, Australia, etc., are just side shows to the main event. Unless you suffer a major defeat in one of these theaters, they will not decide the outcome. Thus, your plans should be focused on the USA.



I agree with this wholeheartedly. The USN in Cent Pac/So Pac/SW Pac will win the war. Other theaters might certainly have an effect, but they won't be decisive.

One thought - do you need to stay on the offensive at this date? Let the allies come to you where you can attack them from multiple airbases AND with the KB. The amount of territory you grab is far less important (IMO) than your ability to defend it later.

Personally I'd prefer to stop my own offensives before those dastardly allies stop me. Keeping enough strength in reserve to counter-attack vigorously once the allies start to get frisky.

I don't know if this is the best advice in the world, but hopefully it's some food for thought...

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RE: Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 8:13:13 AM   
okami


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I have to agree with ctangus here. Bring in your Chinese Brigades and bunkerdown. With an effective and undepleted airforce, make him pay for every landing. Use your KB to destroy landing ships after he committs and win the game by holding out until 1946.

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RE: Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 3:56:37 PM   
John 3rd


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I do agree with those thoughts.  Problem is that I am so darned offensively minded that I want to keep swinging!

I think that I am going to do the following:

1.  Begin the set-up of my perimeter with the forces on Pago Pago.  Moving them around should take about a month of gametime.  By the end of that time I should have a serious garrision at each of my major islands of at least one veteran Brigade and support units--figure about 200-250 dug-in assault points at each base.  This should be enough for a serious tripwire.

2.  I will station at several points (Kwajalein, Lunga, etc...) additional infantry units to act as regional fire brigades when a counter attack starts.

3.  Will continue to prowl around with the KB and shall consolidate my smaller CVs into a small raider force.

4.  Pool my best Fighter and Betty Daitai to react in a similar manner to point 2.

I will continue the offensive in Australia to keep Dan focused there and NOT looking elsewhere.  maybe I can get himt o commit reinforcements from USA that I can sink and kill...

Have a feeling that we may have a major brawl coming up in NE Pacific.  My KB sank a lone AK in the middle of nowhere (a picket perhaps???) while moving towards Kodiak--Anchorage... 

Will have the statistics for a comprehensive report later this morning.


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RE: Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond - 12/20/2007 6:25:24 PM   
John 3rd


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The Game is Afoot!

I just completed the June 13th turn and have sent the June 14th round to Dan.

My recon up in Alaska is now picking up several Allied TF!  Perhaps I have actually stumbled onto something BIG!  I bet that Dan has no idea that the entire KB+ is steaming NE towards his TFs.  He last spotted them a little over two weeks ago around Somoa...

I deploy the KB for battle:

CarDiv1 (Akagi-Kaga), BC Kongo, CA, and 6 DD
CarDiv2 (Hiryu-Soryu), 2 CA, and 6 DD
CarDiv3 (Shokaku-Zuikaku), 3 CA, 2 CL, and 5 DD
CarDiv4 (Ryujo-Shoho), CL, 5 DD

Rechecked my planes totals and I actually have 185 Zero (CAP 60% Range 6), 138 Val (10% Nav Search Range 5), and 195 Kates (Range 6).  I hope to strike using my range advantage like when I sank Enterprise and Lexington a few months ago in the far south. 

To make matter even more itneresting, I order the Bombardment Force that just hit Kodiak to sortie SE towards the Allied formations to draw fire.  BB Yamato, CL, and 7 DD serve as bait...  This is not a suicide mission, I dedicate 2 Daitai of Zeros from Cold Harbor to fly LR CAP.  They won't provide much but should help.

There are 3 Daitai of Bettys with another Daitai of Zeros are Umnak.  Though to range is pretty high, they have struck at several Allied TF prior to this.

I have a total of 11 SS operating in this arena and they are ordered to move towards Anchorage.  This should move them across the American TF line-of-advance.

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT:

I haven't seen the remaining American CVs in nearly 6 weeks.  There is a very high probablility that I am going to hit at least 3 CV.  To my knowledge--with Enterprise and Lexington sunk--this would be about all the Americans can field.  Wasp isn't yet int he Pacific I believe. 

IF that is what I face and IF Dan chooses to fight, my KB will be taking on 81 Wildcats, 108 SBD, and 45 TBD.  Any American strike will be fatal to a Japanese TF and that is why I split my KB the way I do.  It'll, as always, depend on first strikes and range.

Let us see if Dan wants to play...

Of course there might be NOTHING out there then some poor, helpless convoy but I don't think so.  My Japanese 'spider-sense' is twitching!

BANZAI!  BANZAI!!  BANZAI!!!




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Bitter Disappointment - 12/20/2007 10:43:06 PM   
John 3rd


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Dan appears to be backing away from the hoped for battle.  His CVs have moved toward the coastline of Canada--Alaska.  I will move NE one more day to try to catch him.  With that web of bases stretching from Kodiak to Seattle, I have to be careful in where I plot to.  My KB will end up tomorrow at an 8 hex range from Kodiak (AF 4), 9 hexes from Anchorage (AF 5), and 8 hexes from Juneau (AF 2).  At this hex location, my Kates can reach any part of the Gulf of Alaska.  We'll see what he does...

I am running low on fuel so I can only do this another day or two.  Hope to provoke things since he still doesn't know that all those CVs are present.  He knows of at least 1 and since he knows how I operate, he probably safely assumes that there is at least 1 full division of the KB.  His AK Picket ship was hit by Hiryu's Zeros, 21 Vals, and 21 Kates.


Since I am not sure of action there, let me shift to other fronts and fill things in a little better.  I have began moving troops from Pago Pago and Manila:

Pago Pago
I start loading 3 convoys each carrying an Brigade-sized unit:
1.  South Seas Detachment to garrision Canton Isle
2.  12th Ind Brigage to garrision Baker Isle
3.  13th Ind Brigade to garrision Tarawa

Manila
Also loading 3 convoys:
1.  2nd Infantry Division to Darwin
2.  4th Mixed Regiment to Darwin
3.  65th Brigade to Rangoon

Australia
I have a great amount of troops and aircraft stationed or on the move between Wyndham, Darwin, Katherine, and Daly Waters.  I'll hit each base:

Wyndham
This was my main base when I was trying to take Darwin from the rear via Katherine.  The base has been massively built up (AF 5 and Pt 5) and currently has a Sentai of Oscars, 72 Tina Transports, and 90+ Topsy Transports.  Obviously my 2 Parachute Regiments are based here and awaiting orders.  I have enough base support here for 250 planes.

Darwin
Dan evacuated this base (thankfully) near the end of May and I have been expanding it.  It is currently AF 4 (almost 5) and Port 4.  I've enough base support for 250 aircraft and it has 45,000 supply in it.  There is an Air Flotilla and Army Air Division HQ here.  There are 81 Zero and 151 Sally/Helen here being used to attack ground targets at Daly Waters.

Katherine
This town is now AF 3 and expanding rapidly.  The 14 Army HQ is currently planning for Tennant Creek while sitting here and there is another Air Division HQ here.  The Imperial Guards Division, 56th Brigade, 2 Artillery Regiments, and 2 Engineering Regiments are moving through here to Daly Waters.  The 72 Oscars and 81 Sally/Helen are bombing the Daly Waters AF.

Daly Waters
This town is under attack by the 25th Army HQ, 16th/18th/48th Infantry Divisions, 7th Ind Brigade, a Tank Brigade, and Artillery Regiment.


Once my reinforcements arrive from Katherine, I will launch a general assault here.  Dan has about 3 1/2 Aussie Divisions and 3-4 Base Forces present.  I've been content to bombard and strafe this base for the last 10 days or so.

When this town falls, I will switch Army HQs and drive on Tennant Creek.  When it falls, I will split my troops.  The more powerful will attack in the direction of his retreat and the smaller will drive on Alice Springs or Cloncurry.  Things will wholly depend on which way his forces elect to retreat. 




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Post #: 9
I THOUGHT Uber CAP was gone in this Mod! - 12/21/2007 1:11:50 AM   
John 3rd


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A CV clash does occur on June 16, 1942 just two hexes from the Canadian coast!

Well...OK...the GOOD News:

1.  I sank BB Idaho
2.  I put 2 TT--with an AMMO explosion secondary--into the Hornet
3.  My CVs were not TOUCHED!

The BAD News:

I thought that UBER-CAP didn't exist anymore!  Here are my 2 Raids for the morning:

Raid One--16 Zero, 43 Vals, and 54 Kates  VERSUS  16 P-40, 68 F4F, and 4 P-38
I shot down 2 P-40, 1 F4F, and 2 P-38 while losing 11 Zero, 24 Vals, and 30 Kates

This strikes me as reasonable since my Strike ran into a HUGE number of fighters.  It is bad but understandable.

Raid Two--56 Zero, 91 Vals, and 141 Kates  VERSUS  15 P-40, 67 F4F, and 2 P-38
I shot down 16 P-40, 3 F4F, and 3 P-38 for GET THIS 40 Zero, 30 Vals, and 52 Kates!

What the HELL!  I am outnumbered slightly in this fight but not by much.  What a slaughter!

I lose all these planes and pilots for an old BB and serious damage to 1 CV...

I especially hate that there were Army Fighters flying cover as well.  That is for my opponent and I to discuss...

The range was at 6 and the Japanese react 1 hex closer (now Range 5) and the Americans do the same closing the range to 4.  I prepare myself for Dauntless HELL and...NOTHING...no planes fly on either side!  Thank God!


Breathing deeply and trying to exert some control to NOT throw the game out, I order the KB to move SW AWAY and then I will head for Dutch Harbor.  Dan is conservative.  I do not expect him to move out away fromt he coast with his 2 healthy CV.




< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/21/2007 1:13:53 AM >


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Post #: 10
RE: I THOUGHT Uber CAP was gone in this Mod! - 12/23/2007 12:48:36 AM   
John 3rd


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June 17-24, 1942

After the Great Gulf of Alaska Turkey Shoot, the KB moves to Dutch Harbor where it arrives on the 22nd.  I discovered a few interesting things as I survey the damage to my air groups.  Though I lost about 185 planes, I only lost about 150 pilots.  While terrible, this came a nice surprise.  Let me detail the damage done to my air groups:

Name--Standard Complement, left to fly, and (Zero/Val/Kate)

Akagi--72 Planes--46 (19-16-11)
Kaga--72 Planes--61 (24-20-17)
Hiryu--63 Planes--17 (11-6-0)  OUCH!
Soryu--63 Planes--47 (14-15-18)
Shokaku--72 Planes--52 (15, 17, 20)
Zuikaku--72 Planes--54 (16-20-18)

Ryuho--48 Planes--36 (20-0-16)
Shoho--30 Planes--18 (12-0-6)

In searching for good news, I find that I only lost 5 Daitai Leaders.  Luckily this should help with training up the rebuilt airgroups.  I can only guess as to why Dan's bombers DIDN'T fly but I am thankful.  I still have my CVs intact and will have to work on ringing up their experience is a careful manner. 

ACTIONS:
1.  I split the KB and send 3 CV and 2 CVL home for upkeep on the 24th.  I'll list their name and system damage # afterwards:  Soryu (8), Shokaku (9), Zuikaku (11), Ryujo (10), and Shoho (8).  They head for the Home Islands to get repaired and fix their broken airgroups.  
2.  Akagi, Kaga, and Hiryu will leave ont he 26th (after fuel arrives) and head south to Suva for operational duty down there.  Dan is running little Convoys along the edge of the map and I will let me CVs train their new avaitors there.

North Pacific
On the 23rd, three of my older BBs arrive at Dutch Harbor so I send them-with Yamato and Kongo--to bombard Kodiak.  I want to make Dan think I am staying up north.  If I can keep him from moving north again for 2 weeks, then that will be something.

I augment my Northern Air Force to 3 Daitai of Zeros, 1 Sentai of Oscars, 2 Daitai of Bettys, 1 Sentai of Helens, and 3 Chutai of Emilys.  This is what I will commit to the theatre and NO MORE!  If Dan fixates on te Aleutians then that is a good thing. 

With the BBs making their presense known, perhaps he will think that I plan to invade Kodiak and/or Anchorage as I have in other campaigns...

SE Pacific
I am spreading around my Brigades and getting my defensive line established here.  Lots of AP Convoys are moving around and I work to improve and expand my captured bases.  I am paying particular attention to Papeate, Bora Bora, and Rarotonga.  Each of these bases have about 250 assault points of troops and can hold upwards of 100-150 aircraft each. 

Papeate is already expanded to AF 5 and Port 4.  It is my main base here with naval units (CVs Junyo and Hiyo), SS, and a good number of planes operating from here.  Currently I have 6 I-Boats with Glens set up in two groups of three watching for the single ship and small convoys traveling to and from New Zealand.  Akagi, Kaga, and Hiryu will base themselves at Papeate for a while...

It would be good if I continue to make Dan nervous about New Zealand so I will periodically do things to make him THINK I MIGHT invade here...

Australia
The big news here is that Dan evacuated Daly Waters on the 22nd without a fight.  I occupy it and get aircraft into the undamaged Size 3 AF on the 24th.  He MUST make a stand at Tennant Creek.  I have the equivalent of 5 Infantry Divisions with another 1 1/2 about to land at Darwin from Manila. 

Tennant Creek should fall rather easily and then I have big decisions to make.  Do I swing SE and head for Townsville/Cairns or go SW and threaten Adelaide/Perth?  Have to think about it...

To make Dan even more nervous, I order an SNLF, Nvl Construction Battalion, and small Base Force to load into transports on the 23rd to take Exmouth Bay.  I will use this harbor for a seaplane base.  It is my HOPE that Dan will move troops towards Perth to protect it.  That is a deadend area and if I do go that direction, those troops will be wiped out through seige and attack.

To ratchet up the tension, I dispatch my smaller CVLs/CVEs from Batavia on the 22nd towards the edge of the map for raiding duty.  This is a respectable force:  CVLs Ryuho and Zuiho sail separately with CVEs Hosho, Unyo, Chuyo, and Taiyo nearby.  The total plane complement is 86 Zero, 18 Val, and 47 Kate.  Accompaning them are 3 CA, CS Nisshin, 2 CL, and 11 DD.  There are 3 Glen-Equipped SS probing around looking for targets...

Thoughts? 

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RE: I THOUGHT Uber CAP was gone in this Mod! - 12/23/2007 1:03:25 AM   
trollelite

 

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Strafing chinese or other unfortunate guys could help training them up to about exp 65, you need sink some ships to improve further. But, u see, very high exp didn't really help, you still got more than 100 bombers coming through last time, but they failed to sink Hornet.

Another thing is I would never choose BB mod as Japs, too weak, you simply give all fun to your allied opponent. This A2A result normally not happened in other mods.  I judged this mod too unbalanced for a good game between 2 players with about equal skills.

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Post #: 12
RE: I THOUGHT Uber CAP was gone in this Mod! - 12/23/2007 3:24:27 AM   
ny59giants


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quote:

Tennant Creek should fall rather easily and then I have big decisions to make. Do I swing SE and head for Townsville/Cairns or go SW and threaten Adelaide/Perth? Have to think about it...


I made a mistake in my CHS PBEM and sent unit through Townsville and then NW towards Tennant Creek. There is about 8 hexes of trails between Cloncurry and Tennant Creek. They took forever to get there. No sense in going that direction. I would just take Alice Spring and dig in. He can only hit you with heavy bombers due to distances. If your going to continue south, then you need to take Perth and roll up that flank to Adelaide. Cuts off India from Australia. Then he will have three areas that are NOT mutually supporting.

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The End of Aussieland - 12/23/2007 4:48:56 AM   
John 3rd


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Good thinking Michael.  I will push through to Alice Springs at a minimum and you are right about the condition of the trails from Tennant Creek to Cloncurry.

Like the idea of splitting him into several pieces...

On the last turn I added all 3 of my Tank Regiments that were in Manila to go to Darwin.  That will add nearly a division of punch with Shock Attack possiblities.


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Post #: 14
RE: The End of Aussieland - 12/23/2007 5:02:28 AM   
ny59giants


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quote:

Like the idea of splitting him into several pieces...


RHS and eventually AE with their extensive shipping channels will take away this option.
Which is how it should be.

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Post #: 15
RE: The End of Aussieland - 12/23/2007 5:24:02 AM   
John 3rd


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We shall see!  Michael--Do I have a turn coming????


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Post #: 16
RE: The End of Aussieland - 12/24/2007 1:28:33 AM   
John 3rd


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Slow turn day today for Dan and I.  We have weekdays open so we tend to get 4-6 turns done each weekeday.  The weekends are the opposite where we have a lot of family time and only get 1 or 2 in.  I have a son about to turn 4 and another that is 16 months.  This leads to great amounts of chaos when everyone is home!

I continued my disinformation campaign with our June 27th turn. 

In Big B's Mod, we get 100 Political Points per day to give the commanders more flexiblity in troops usage.  This is what I have done and am doing: 

1.  I have taken advantage of this to pull the small Chinese Brigades out over the first 5 months of the campaign.  Like I have said earlier, I think I have pulled 9-10 of those units out of China.  Those troops allowed me to take the South and Southeast Pacific and are now becoming garrision formations throughout the area.

2.  About a month ago, I bought out the following units of the Manchurian Army:  1st Mixed Brigade (much bigger then the small ones I have pulled), 2 Engineering Brigades, and 2 Artilllery Regiments.  They have reached Shanghai for embarkation.

3.  I am getting ready to pull the 20th Infantry Division from its Korean location and change it out as well on July 1st.  This unit purchase will completely tap my current Political Points.

The headgame that I am playing at right now is that I assigned ALL of these units to plan for ANCHORAGE!  Odds are that American intelligence will pick-up on a few of these unit's orders and...

Rather evil planning if I do say so myself!

Where are they going you ask?  I believe the units detailed in point 2 are going to take Geraldon to the north of Perth.  The 20th ID will help to start a counter-action force that I will begin to create for the American counterattack...


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/24/2007 1:32:02 AM >


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RE: The End of Aussieland - 12/24/2007 6:35:00 PM   
John 3rd


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Dan and I will get a turn or two in today and I plan to keep up the confusion on my main axis of attack.

I have Junyo and Hiyo approaching New Zealand from due east looking for shipping.  I PLAN to let them be seen before heading north up to Noumea.  Once spotted and then seen moving northwards, they will make a long loop back to Papeate and try to hit anything being sent from the Panama Canal. 

Will also set a few more units to plan for Auckland this round to further that thought.

Just simply want some serious confusion from Dan.  I do enjoy doing this.  Perhaps I can paralyse him for a few weeks while I hammer at Australia...


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Post #: 18
India Advice? - 12/24/2007 6:36:25 PM   
John 3rd


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This is a red herring heading.  I want Dan to see it since he is on the forum site right now.



Merry Christmas everyone!

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RE: India Advice? - 12/27/2007 12:38:07 AM   
John 3rd


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Have just completed the June 29-30, 1942 turns with little action.

North Pacific

Partial KB
I have replennished the lost aircrews on Akagi, Kaga, and Hiryu while at Dutch Harbor.  CarDiv1 looks good with all six Daitai still in the high-60s and low-70s for experience; however, Hiryu is BAD:  Zero 68, Val 49, and Kate 41 for experience totals.  These 3 CV with 2 BC, 4 CA, 1 CL, and 8 DD depart Dutch Harbor on the 29th headed for Suva.  I HOPE Dan thinks they are still at DH for a while!

BB Bombardment
I have 4 BB on regular Bombardment runs to Kodiak.  Their job isn't to do any real damage, it is to make Dan think I am serious about coming North.

South Pacific 
Junyo and Hiyo are spotted heading north towards Noumea after passing New Zealand to the east.  Something else for Dan to think about.

Pago Pago
My LBA manages to hit THREE Allied SS in ONE round on the 29th! None sink but still nice to do some damage.

Australia
Am approaching Tennant Creek and have nearly 200 Sally and Helen hitting the AF and ground troops in that area.

My Exmouth Bay Invasion Force will land about July 5th.  Once I have that bay then I will move two Chutai of Emily there for recon and naval search.

I MIGHT invade Geraldon--will recon it from Exmouth Bay...

Burma
No real news.  I have about 150 bombers and 200 fighters here operating out of Rangoon, Meiltaka, and that other base NW of there.  Have no desire to capture Akyab or Mandalay.

That is the news from my front!

Will be posting an economic summary as well as victory points total in a few minutes.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/27/2007 12:43:50 AM >


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July 1, 1942 Victory Points and Industrial Status - 12/27/2007 12:40:45 AM   
John 3rd


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July 1, 1942
Victory Points and Economic Summary
 
Victory Points:
 
Score
Japan   22,672
Allies    6,167
 
Ships Sunk
Japan   175—1,263 VP
 
Major Japanese Vessels Sunk---CAs Kinugasa and Kako, 4 CL, 13 DD (only 4 Modern DD lost), and 13 SS (9 I-Boats and 4 Ro-)
 
Allies    198---3,031 VP
 
Major Allied Vessels Sunk---CVs Enterprise and Lexington, BBs Colorado, West Virginia, and Idaho, 6 CA, 2 CL, 25 DD, and 2 SS.
 
 
Industrial Report
Supply              2,080,792
Fuel                  2,503,666
Manpower       833 (356,056)
Heavy Industry 17.594 (34,168)
Resources        17,594 (1,270,960)
Oil                    2012 (970,815)
 
Shipyards
Naval               1,311 (12)
Merchant          1,012 (1)
Repair              1,288
 
Specific Ships:
Musashi is 321 Days from completion.  I’ve accelerated CVs Taiho, Unryu, Amagi, and Katsuragi,
 
Weapons
Armament        549 (52,639)
Vehicles           111 (5,943)
 
Aircraft
Engines 1,925
Assembly         856+350-Rd
 
Engine Production
Mitsubishi         885/Month—Need 600—1,936 in Pool
Nakajima         900(14)—Need 690---202 in Pool
Kawasaki         120---Need 0---841 in Pool
Aichi                20---Need 0---134 in Pool
 
 
Plane Production
Fighters            Planes/Month (in Pool)
A6M2  104 (521)
A6M3  84 (43)
Oscar   156 (214)
A6M3a 14-R
Tojo     38-R
Tony    34-R
Jack     29-R
 
Bombers
Betty    92 (116)
Sally     62 (144)
Helen   61 (40)
Lily       78 (54)
Val       57 (309)
Kate     40 (180)
 
 
Recon/Float
Emily    20 (29)
Alf        5 (50)
Rufe     14 (79)
Glen     4 (43)
Dinah   31 (178)
Irving    8 (0)
Jake     8 (122)
 
Will be shutting off most of the Float Panes soon and will turn them ‘on’ again when I need them.
 
Transports
Tina      10 (25)
Sally     5 (27)
Topsy   10 (41)
Mavis-L           5 (23)
Tabby 10 (64)
 
Am shutting down Tabby production.

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Post #: 21
RE: July 1, 1942 Victory Points and Industrial Status - 12/27/2007 5:36:33 AM   
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Hey John,

Not saying one way or the other on "uber CAP", except that escorts tend to get shredded, no matter what side you're on.  CAP, even with sub-standard fighters and average pilots, if on point defense (range 1 ~70% CAP), will do "reasobably well" against a like number of escorts regardless of experience of the escorts.  In June, Zero bonus has expired and he's defending with all modern fighters and his exp is probably about 65 for army and 80 for navy (so they don't utterly suck).  Given the chance I throw crap planes and pilots on escort, since they're fighting at a disadvantage anyway and are mostly just fodder.  As Japan, you don't really have as much choice in the matter, but maybe if you've got a CVE with some less experience sqdns, or a CV with a less exp squadron, set you good sqdns to hight CAP percent, and your suck squadrons to 0% CAP all escort. Other point being, your air groups were proably around 20 fatigue after the first day's sorties, and fatigue can push an even battle in favor of the "not as fatigued".

The other consolation is, when you -really- consider the situation, how often do you -really- have a CV engagmeent where you -need- those pilots to press thru.  Odds are, you won't have another CV battle for months, which will give you time to repair your air-groups.

IMO, as Japan it's about "what can I trade my CVs for".  You -are- going to lose your CVs and their air-groups.  Whether it's to SBDs and wilcats in 42, or to Hellcats in 43, or to B-29s in port in 44; your CVs -will- get nailed.  So you want to "trade" them for the best you can.  And you just added 2x USN CVs to the trophy case for pilots.  Did it hurt your CAGs?  Sure.  But pilots you can replace (albeit slowly), your CVs, you cannot.

If it's June and you just pounded him, I'd expect another potential engagement in about November.  Your opponent will be more conservative next time, and will pull the flak upgrades before thinking of sortying.  He'll also pull in the RN CVs (wherever they are), to try to even the table a little.

Plan for -that- battle.  Do everyting you can to get your airgroups ready by Nov/Dec, against whatever USN CVs and RN CVs he has left.  That battle will be critical.  If you win it outright, you buy yourself a year while his CVs respawn in late 44 (only a year, because even before teh CVs respawn, his LBA will be powerful enought to kick your a_s.)  If it's a draw, we'll, you've made an even exchange and you hunker down to make him pay for every advance.  And well, you don't want to lose *grin*.

But ini Spring 43 he gets another flak upgrade (he may wait for this). And fall 43 he's drawing Hellcats (which will shred your planes regardless of how good your pilots are). So you -want- to prepare for another fight sometime in Nov-Jan.

-F-

< Message edited by Feinder -- 12/27/2007 5:41:12 AM >


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Post #: 22
RE: July 1, 1942 Victory Points and Industrial Status - 12/30/2007 1:02:58 AM   
John 3rd


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Feinder:

I agree with your thinking a bunch.  ANY chance to inflict maximum harm for low cost must be taken advantage of and then settle for one heck of a fight for when it is time to LOSE the Japanese Flattops! 

This is why I have run this game somewhat differently then I normally do.  I have chosen to keep the starting KB intact and add a CVL to each of the three divisions.  Operating together, the KB now contains about 500 aircraft split between three mutually supporting TF.  I also keep a BB TF with this group as a possible diversion for inbound strikes.  It is fairly close to what the Americans had in late-1943 and is more then a match for the current amount of 3-4 American CVs.

This total doesn't include the two smaller Carrier TF I have out there right now.  Junyo/Hiyo (102 planes) are their own TF as well as 2 CVL with 4 CVE (166 PLANES) that I have roaming around raiding.  I might bunch these 8 CV together and let them cause some havoc.  With 268 planes, even that could trade some serious blows with the Americans and--probably--beat a Brit CV Force. 

Even with the aerial losses, for only the sinking of a useless old BB and decent damage to a CV, I sustained recently, I can rebuild my aerial fighting edge and be ready for a serious head-to-head fight by the end of the year.

Dan has lost Enterprise and Lexington with a little damage to Hornet.  He tends to be pretty cautious.  I bet he won't try to take the offensive in the Pacific for at least six months.  That is the time I need to tackle Australia while waiting for his counterattack to develop.

We shall see what happens.


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Post #: 23
July 1-4, 1942 - 12/30/2007 2:27:15 AM   
John 3rd


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Combat Report
July 1-4, 1942

A relatively quiet period settles into the Pacific as numerous convoys ply the north, central, and south Pacific.

North Pacific
With the departure of all my carriers, Dutch Harbor still holds a massive amount of Japanese firepower.  Five BB reside here aand are doing their best to convince Dan that I am moving against Kodiak and Anchorage.  Kodiak is hit by these BB on the 1st and another bombardment is scheduled to take place on the 6th.  Thsi will be a two-fold attack of a CA-CL-DD TF and then the BB TF.

Dan has a couple of small ASW TF operating between Kodiak and Anchorage against my SS.  I have 11 SS working this area and he manages to hit Ro-62 badly on the 3rd and 4th.  It is headed for DH.  I have mined all the ports in this area with the four Japanese ML SS (I-121-124).

Keep hoping my Bettys will fly and hit one of these TF sometime from Cold Harbor (AF 4).

Spot a ML heading for Anchorage and an I-Boat misses a shot at her on the 4th.

Central Pacific
No major events.  My garrision troops have pretty much made it to all their destinations from Pago-Pago.  I have a few Air BF moving into place so I can use my AF without any issues.

My remaining operational KB CVs are passing Midway on the 4th heading for Suva and commerce hunting.  Akagi, Kaga, and Hiryu have little to no system damage and their refits aren't scheduled for another 2-3 months.  Hopefully, they can hit some innocent merchant ships for training purposes...

South Pacific
My Junyo--Hiyo TF is spotted passing the eastern edge of New Zealand on the 2nd and docks at Noumea on the 4th.  This should keep Dan nervous as to my intentions.

Australia
I am driving on Tennant Creek and am only 60 miles away on the 4th.  Put simply, Dan MUST fight here or he will be back to Alice Springs.  I have 150 fighters and 225 bombers savaging his troops and Tennant Creek's AF.

Exmouth Bay--I tip my hand by landing at Exmouth on the 4th.  I will take it on the 5th and move Emilys there for scouting purposes.

Perth--Mandrake may enjoy this moment.  I WILL take this base!  I've decided on a new plan brought about by the map for this Mod.  I intend to land an Infantry Division, Inf Brigade, 2 Artillery Regiments, 2 Engineering Regiments, and a BF if it is not occupied.  Once I have it, both of my Paratroop Regiments will capture the town about 8 hexes SE of Perth.  Perth will be isolated and I will then reduce it and capture the town.

IF ALL GOES WELL--these troops will then drive down for a juncture with my army approaching Tennant Creek by way of Alice Springs. 

My Mini-KB sinks 2 AK over these days as it slowly moves toward Perth to cover the Exmouth Landing.

Burma
No big action.  I land an Infantry Brigade and two Artillery Regiments at Rangoon without issue.

Home Islands
My Carriers disband into their ports for refit, repairs, and upgrades.  Soryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku, and 2 CVL begin their work and I replace their aerial losses at the same time.


That is news on my front...

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Post #: 24
RE: July 1-4, 1942 - 12/30/2007 7:01:45 AM   
John 3rd


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I was going through my notes and forgot to mention major troops deployments during this time.  I have pulled and paid the points for a good-sized group of units from Manchuria/Korea to embark from Shanghai on July 4th.  These are the specifics:

To Broome:
23rd Engineering Regiment
Tone Heavy Gun Regiment

To New Caledonia:
1st Mixed Brigade
5th Engineer Regiment
8th Heavy Gun Regiment

The 20th Infantry Division is on its way to Shanghai and will be loaded for Australia as well.

From the Manila Forces I dispatch the following:

To Kwajalein:
35th Brigade

To Rangoon:
4th Mixed Brigade


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/30/2007 7:04:33 AM >


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Post #: 25
July 5-13, 1942 - 1/3/2008 11:01:50 PM   
John 3rd


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Combat Report
July 5-13, 1942
 
Things have been VERY quiet for this week's time.  I continue to move troops around with many convoys of soldiers, planes, oil, resources, supplies, and fuel moving to all points of the compass. 

Many people pooh-pooh Japanese players who REALLY push the perimeter but I like it and the more I can force my opponents to START the counter-offensive a long way AWAY from Japan the better.  The only real problem with this strategy is keeping the perimiter supplied adequately.  I always feel that my 'normal' perimeter (the Aleutians--Midway--SE Islands--New Caledonia) is highly vulnerable only directly after I have taken it.  The period of time that this campaign has entered is THAT time!  I have redistributed my troops and am digging in but face a chronic shortage of fuel and supplies.  This should be alleviated by the end of July.  Until then, my infrastructure is a hollow shell with very little flexiblity or strength...

I have a number of ships who entered drydock for upgrade and basic repairs and they should be ready soon to head back out onto the open sea.  Soryu, Shokaku, and Zuikaku have already completed their upgrades and are seeing the last System Damage repaired.  They will join 2 BC, 3 CA, 3 CL, 15 DD in Toyko Bay soon to return to the South Pacific.  Once they reach Noumea, then Hiryu, Akagi, and Kaga will switch and do their upgrades.  I am able to do this pretty quickly due to the massive Repair Yard expansion that I always do in this game...

Regional Reports

North Pacific
My principle bases of Cold Harbor, Dutch Harbor, and Umnak all look good.  Each base has at least 20,000 supply and AFs are at 4, 1, and 5 respectively.  There are currently 4 BB, 2 CA, 3 CL, and 25 DD operating up here as well as about 14 SS.  The goal has been to distract Dan into thinking of a possible invasion of Anchorage.  I think I have done that and will now start pulling ships and extra aircraft southward to the true theatres of action.

During this week of time my SS hit two AK and miss a DD as well as an MLE.  Three SS are damaged and have to return to Northern Japan (I use Sendai as my main SS repair base).  Mines are everywhere and I am laying them as fast as possible.  In seeing that MLE of Dan's, I KNOW he is thinking defense!

My Bettys do manage on the 13th to fly and sink 3 MSW at Kodiak.  Nice to sink a few of them...

Central Pacific
Midway  I land two Brigades there during this week and lift off a pair of smaller Naval Guard units to be used for garrision duty near Kwajalein.  Midway is tough.  I've got about 300 Assault Points and the ability to stage 150 planes from there.  Will begin mining it within a couple weeks or so.

No other real devlopments in this region.

SE Pacific
Major supply issues at Baker, Canton, Bora-Bora, and Papeate.  Supply convoys headed to each of these locations.  I REALLY like having Bora-Bora and Papeate because they are at AF 4 and 5 respecively and can mutually support each other as bases.  They will be VERY hard to retake!  I expect this to be a prime location for the Allied Counterattack...

South Pacific
Suva  This is my main base for the region.  Port is at 5 (nearly 6) and the AF is also at 5.  I have several convoys of fuel about to arrive.  I will base most of the Combined Fleet here for the foreseeable future.

Noumea  Building this up as well.  It is the obvious choice for Japanese HQ but I will hold off on that.  This place will carry a substantial garrision by the end of July.

New Zealand  I think Dan THINKS I want this place!  I intend to make him continue thinking that once the Hiryu, Akagi, and Kaga arrive at Noumea within a few days.  They will go commerce hunting and be VERY visible...

Australia
Tennant Creek  My troops have begun to arrive at Tennant Creek.  It appears that Dan will fight here!  YEA!!!  I have 125 Fighters and 200 bombers hitting this place every day from Katherine and Daly Waters.

Exmouth Bay  I capture this base on the 5th and it is serving as a Recon base for the supply lanes and checking of bases around Perth.

Perth  I have detailed a force of 2 Infantry Divisions, 1 Inf Brigade, 2 Base Forces, 1 Engineering Reg, 2 Art Regiments, and both of my Paratroop Regiments for operations around this city.  I will land and capture Geraldon and then invest Perth if he lets me... 

My Paras may get an important mission once my Emily Recon has been done!

DEI
Nothing exciting.  Am finishing off the Central Philippines and will use one of those bases for pilot training.  I'll purposely leave a garrision there for constant attack for the rest of the war...

Burma
Magwe  Dan and I have been exchanging some aerial blows here but I am have been doing pretty well.  Have pulled in my Oscar Sentais in anticipation of TONYS and TOJOS withina few weeks!    I have 3 Sentai of Oscars at Rangoon whose experience is in their 80s and they will get the first of the new aircraft.

China
Who cares??? 

That is the state of things and I just notice that Dan's newest turn has arrived!  Will update again in a few days.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 1/4/2008 4:55:37 AM >


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Post #: 26
Strategic Imput? - 1/4/2008 5:06:49 AM   
John 3rd


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I have done my recon of the Aussie bases in western Aussieland and find NOTHING at Kalgoorie, Albany, and Geraldon.  Perth has 4 units spotted within it.

This is the OOB of available forces to take this area:

At Broome and Loaded into AP with 19,000 Supply:
2nd Infantry Division
2nd/6th/14th Tank Regiments
20th Engineer Regiment
2 Construction Battlions

At Broome:
1st/2nd Parachute Regiments
4th Mixed Regiment
16th Army HQ
Aviation Regiment
Long Range Transports:  72 Tina and 24 Mavis

En Route passing Timor:
23rd Engineer Regiment
Tone Heavy Gun Regiment

En Route passing Philippines:
20th Infantry Division

Operational Vision
I do not want to simply grab these bases!  I want to force the surrender of those troops at Perth.  My initial thought is:

1.  To take the loaded TF and send it south so that it LOOKS like it is going for Perth.  PASS PERTH and take Albany (AF 1 but Pt 3).

2.  Just prior to landing at Albany use my Paras to capture that Port and Geraldon.  No contested landing for my convoy to deal with.

3.  A few days later, use ALL of my Paras and the 4th Mixed Regiment to capture Kalgoorie and shut the door on Perth. 

4.  Reduce Perth at my leisure...

Naval Resources:
My Mini-KB of 2 CVL and 4 CVE with over 175 planes will provide cover and block reinforcements and/or evac of Perth troops.

Comments and/or thoughts?  Need to come up with an Operational Plan Code Word Title! 

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Post #: 27
First Screen Shot! - 1/4/2008 5:47:53 AM   
John 3rd


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Since there are different maps for WitP now, I have decided to try my FIRST EVER screen shot into the AAR. Perhaps it will help...

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 28
2nd Try: First Screen Shot! - 1/4/2008 5:49:32 AM   
John 3rd


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From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
Lets try to put the picture in the BOX!






Attachment (1)

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Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

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(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 29
RE: First Screen Shot! - 1/4/2008 5:50:03 AM   
USS America


Posts: 16263
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Apex, NC, USA
Status: offline
Psst, John.  Make sure you check the box to "imbed picture in post."

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Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 30
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