From: Denver, CO
Well, you are probably right, Jim. I don't know the Allied OOB that well.
Maybe I'm just too cautious as Japan, but after Spring 42, it just seems like I can't approach an Allied base over size 4 because the LBA is just so strong. If I was playing Japan in this game, I would fear a hit on the Mariannas, because if they fell I wouldn't be able to attack Pearl, Marshalls, SOPAC or anywhere else until the mariannas were taken back.
ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns
ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg
But so what if Troll does take back mariannas? He'll lose planes, ships, men and time in the process - all of which the Jap cannot afford to lose. If GH sits in the Marshalls and waits for all those India divisions to show up, then he has helped buy Japan more time IMO.
But it’s not just the Marianas at stake. He will need to strip the Marshalls of a lot of land forces to invade with, thus leaving the backdoor open or weak. Once Japan arrives in theatre in force, there will be no more shuttling of forces between the Marianas and Marshalls, so if he’s engaged in an op at the Marianas when Japan comes back, the Marshalls will be doomed as well.
The US OOB is very small and won’t grow significantly until near the end of 1942. If he loses a division or two he’s exposed himself all the way to the Hawaiian Islands. The US simply cannot afford to lose large combat forces in 1942 on risky ventures.
Heck just taking the Marshalls leaves Hawaii open to attack, but at least he has something to defend there with. If he goes for the Marianas, something somewhere will be totally exposed and undefended.
It’s better to try and defend the Marshalls against counter-attack (and have a chance to perhaps win) than it is to lose everything on a risky plan to try and take the Marianas which can’t be held in the first place even if he takes them.
1943 is when the US will have sufficient forces to seriously consider launching an operation to grab more territory. If he’s managed to hold onto the Marshall’s until then, I guarantee lots of Japanese stuff will have impaled itself on his spears by then.
He’s won a huge advantage here, it does him no good trying to continue west right now as he doesn’t have the power to exploit or consolidate any further gains right now. If he tries to go on the offensive in the face of Japanese assets returning to the area he’ll be outmatched in planes and ships and will get destroyed. Even if he succeeds, he’ll lose everything he sends there and the Marshall’s will be much weaker then.
The Japanese Indian campaign is what allowed this operation to go off without a hitch, but the Indian campaign is rapidly coming to a conclusion. The full force of Japan will be swinging east into the Pacific soon, now is not the time to put half your available on map land OOB aboard ships and send them into enemy controlled waters.