simovitch
Posts: 3898
Joined: 2/14/2006 Status: offline
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I believe the future of wargaming will gravitate toward what the market demand is. Unfortunately the demand is not going to carry our hobby to where we want it to go. At some point in the near future (15+ years) A large majority of the hobby's most talented developer's will retire or move on to more lucrative ventures. I just don't think the computer wargame market will be able to financially keep pace with the fast-paced development of hardware. The first decade of the 21st century will be the zenith, I fear, of commercially available computerized conflict simulations. Realtime-internet play is problematic due to time zones and real life schedules. It will never be economically viable enough to warrant an investment in a high quality engine that takes advantage of the stunning graphic and combat modelling facilitated by ever-more powerful CPU's and GPU's that we will expect or hope for. PBEM is frustratingly slow. A powerful AI is the key to the future - but who is going to develop it, and marry it to a state of the art graphics engine? A significant portion of today's wargame development comes from volunteers willing to join a team and put in some serious hours of their own time with NO PAY to help realize their own dream or for a few moments of recognition. My feeling is that the majority of this 'slave labor' is comprised of the older, 70's era boardgamers (like me) who, along with their hair-line, are slowly thinning out. There is simply not enough interest in the 80's and 90's generation to keep this kind of dedication going. It will have to come from a real job market. So, unless a major corporation or Government invests in this 'virtual company commander' idea, or any idea more advanced than what we currently have to purchase (i.e. WW2 online, etc), we are stuck with half-baked dreams of what our idea of the ideal wargame should be.
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simovitch
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