Kielec -> RE: Does bombing Ploesti (as Soviets, ehmm...) make sense? (9/19/2018 9:49:34 PM)
Since the thread started to go historical and a bit off, let me bring it back to the actual game by this longish number crunching rant.
Checked some in-game numbers. You will excuse my not planting screenshots, but it is all available for verification in the Axis Commander Reports and Event Logs.
Turn one of the 1941-1945 Campaign doesn't have the Log Events, obviously, so I am using my last campaign as the Axis turn 2. It shows the following:
30800 tons of Oil produced in 96 oil centers
22560 t Fuel prod in 94 Refineries (20760 available) - - 28200 t Oil used in prod
11500 t Synthetic fuel prod in 46 centers (8686 available)
Units want 15500 t Fuel, 1108945 t available (7154%)
I've checked the "units want" numbers for a few randomly selected turns in 1941 and 1942 when the Panzers were active and never found a number reaching 18000, so I will use this instead to calculate the...
Net fuel gain per turn/week: roughly 11000 t (available prod - units want), that's 60-70% of average weekly consumption going into the stockpile. The Axis will never run out of fuel. They will run out of storage facilities.
Net Oil gain is 2600 (produced-used), the stockpile is 98600 - only 3,5 Fuel production turns worth, but grows at a 2,5% per turn.
Turn one of the 1944-45 Campaign (starts June 29 1944) shows this:
16250 tons of Oil produced in 96 Oil centers
10800 t Fuel prod in 94 Refineries (7920 available) - - 13500 t Oil used in prod
8298 t Synthetic fuel prod in 46 centers (5079 available)
Units want 16828 t Fuel, 1124275 t available (6680%)
Now, Ploesti is bombed down to 48% Fuel and 49% Oil (that's damage) so here go the low production numbers - neither "clicked in" for the particular turn.
Net Fuel loss seems to be roughly 3800 t (available prod - units want) per turn/week, so the current stock should last for 296 weeks, or so, hence till spring 1950. That, given that Ploesti keeps being effectively shut down, which at 50% chance gives the Axis enough fuel for much longer. [Obviously this is based on an assumption of similar weekly consumption, not many loses due to HQ bumps and lost cities with full stockpiles, and, of course, Ploesti being there till the end...]
Net Oil gain is 2750, the stockpile is 92750. It would seem that the Refineries would like to consume 19650 (instead of the 13500 actually used), but alas, Ploesti is bombed out to no production. Should the Ploesti Refineries produce Fuel, as they are supposed to do, there would be a net loss of 3400 Oil, meaning the Oil stockpile would run out in 28 turns - by January 1945. BINGO! Well, that would still leave Herr H. with another 5 years worth of Fuel, so who cares?
The Manual, in 18.104.22.168. "Axis Rail Supply Modifier", goes very confusingly and at length about how many supplies and how much fuel actually reaches the railheads from which the units are supplied. I am a bit confused by the fact, that units seem to be supplied form cities/towns now, and how these locations are chosen for stockpiling is beyond me, but never mind. Lets dig an example from this passage:
So as an example, a unit in Smolensk (X86, Y51)) in August 1941 in clear weather will have its fuel/supplies deliveries multiplied by ((168+((0)/1)-86)) + ((51-69/2))/100 or 73/100 or .73. So due to this rule, the delivery of supplies and fuel to the unit in Smolensk would be reduced to only 73 percent of what they otherwise would have been.
Does the above mean that 27% of fuel (let's skip them boring supplies) gets lost on the way to said unit in Smolensk, or does it stay in the stockpiles? Is it that out of every 100 rail cars of fuel, as needed by the units on the front in Smolensk, the Deutsche-Sovietische Railroads can only move 73, hence leaving 27 cars worth of fuel to be (possibly) delivered next week? Or is it that a 100 cars full of fuel are moved towards Smolensk, but somehow, you know, the road is long and perilous and beset on all sides by Russische Banditen and only 73 arrive at the railhead? The difference would be huge!
Out of 96 Axis Oil centers, 41 in Ploesti and 14 in Bucarest (so 55, i.e. 57%) can be bombed by Soviet bombers basically from day one of the Barbarossa. Who knows to what effect. Same goes for 57 out of 94 (60% - a better target?) Refineries.
No other Oil or Fuel factories and no Synthetic Fuel factories can be seriously targeted before End Spiel. Ok, there's this 5 Oil in Helsinki that can be really easily done, as long as Leningrad holds, and in my current game I have promised Comrade Stalin that it will, but is it worth without the Rumanian fields?
To sum up. To me it seems that for the Soviets to go after Axis Fuel production makes little sense, in terms of a strategic air-bombing campaign. However, if the Soviet Union could hold on to Crimea in 1941 and use it as an unsinkable blah, blah aircraft carrier, and successfully bomb the Ploesti AND Bucharest Oil factories/fields into not producing most of the time (the 5 Oil in Helsinki, easily reached from Leningrad would need to be flattened too!), the game of Fuel could be played. Not by Fuel, but by Oil. Notice, that bombing Fuel factories presents you with a 2% per turn repair rate, while Oil goes up at only 1% per turn. If only the poor Soviet long range bombers production could keep up with the inevitable losses...
Second point is the clarification of the %delivered part (vide: TRES). If an actual loss of Fuel due to remoteness of delivery points occurred during Axis supply phases, an air campaign vs Ploesti, Bucharest and Helsinki oilfields would make all the more sense to me.
Give us your thoughts, please.