PzB's discoveries... (Full Version)

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GreyJoy -> PzB's discoveries... (10/8/2012 11:40:16 PM)

I've gone back reading the latest 20 pages of PzB's AAR against AndyMac...

Did somebody ever studied the reasons behind PzB's late war supply issues?

As you probably well know, one of the main problems PzB encountered in 1944 was the fact that, despite the empire had conquered half of known world and was pratically unbeaten, his economy wasn't able to produce enough supplies to feed all his armies, planes and bases... He had all his HI bases in yellow or red...

How can it be? Did someone investigated seriously?

Thanks

GJ




n01487477 -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 1:10:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I've gone back reading the latest 20 pages of PzB's AAR against AndyMac...

Did somebody ever studied the reasons behind PzB's late war supply issues?

As you probably well know, one of the main problems PzB encountered in 1944 was the fact that, despite the empire had conquered half of known world and was pratically unbeaten, his economy wasn't able to produce enough supplies to feed all his armies, planes and bases... He had all his HI bases in yellow or red...

How can it be? Did someone investigated seriously?

Thanks

GJ

Without having the game file - I'd say that there are maximums to expansion and what is possible. This is not a dynmaic world in terms of Resources and Oil. THerefore, because you cannot add to these except for captures - the maximum output is static for any given scenario. Most scenario's have the Japanese running out (actually riding the surplus down) of oil and fuel.Resources are harder to use up, but it isn't impossible with massive expansion.

Fuel is a priority that due to its use for shipping and HI(supplu production) can fall quite quickly. Having shipping (esp. CV/BB) running around all the time and not having a large number sunk (what a positive-negative!) can in the end cause shortfalls. The Babes/RA guys are pretty good at what they do, but I do have the sense that with the reduced cargo limits, more shipping and hence the need for more fuel - they haven't tweaked this enough... unless you want that historical effect of Japan in desperate need of fuel in late 43-early 44. I've seen it and commented it on a thread from long ago, now lost in the fog..

Therefore, it is important for the Japanese player to realise that there are maximums to their industrial might. This can be calculated and most modders are aware of this. I know Treespider and myself are working on seperate economic mods and this is something we are both approaching in different ways.




PaxMondo -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 4:28:27 AM)

IIRC PzB's game started with an early patch, and that patch had some supply issues.  Andy and PzB patched their game and I also recall that michael dumped some supply in a couple of times to attempt to address issues.  How much this may or may not have been the issue, I do not know.




GreyJoy -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 7:07:55 AM)

Well, iPzB stated he didn't have problems with fuel or resources. He had problems only with supplies and HI.
Now we all know what causes the Hi points drain (the pilots training program of scenario 2), but a so horrible drain of supplies it's something unexpected (considering how strong Japan was in PzB's game).

Would be interesting to ask how was Rader's situation in our former game...unfortunately Rader isn't reading these pools anymore :-(




castor troy -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 8:00:57 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I've gone back reading the latest 20 pages of PzB's AAR against AndyMac...

Did somebody ever studied the reasons behind PzB's late war supply issues?

As you probably well know, one of the main problems PzB encountered in 1944 was the fact that, despite the empire had conquered half of known world and was pratically unbeaten, his economy wasn't able to produce enough supplies to feed all his armies, planes and bases... He had all his HI bases in yellow or red...

How can it be? Did someone investigated seriously?

Thanks

GJ



How this can be? You have given the answer already. He conquered halve of the map (that' quite some fighting) and he created an aircraft industry that probably sucked up more than a year's supply production.

If you don't go crazy there is more than enough supply and HI for the Japanese, I don't want to sound too harsh but going wild on the map and with his industry he bankrupted himself in terms of supplies. When I played Rainer79 he said he had more than one million HI stored in late 44, scenario 2 with the same need of HI for the pilot training programme. It's not the game, it's the player and what he does.

While the real life Japanese couldn't even effectively supply a single division somewhere on New Guinea the game lets you conquer halve (or all) of the map but ultimately the game then shows you what you should have thought about earlier and you go boom as you were going far over your possibilities and I am glad this is so, at least some realistic aspect.




GreyJoy -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 8:10:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I've gone back reading the latest 20 pages of PzB's AAR against AndyMac...

Did somebody ever studied the reasons behind PzB's late war supply issues?

As you probably well know, one of the main problems PzB encountered in 1944 was the fact that, despite the empire had conquered half of known world and was pratically unbeaten, his economy wasn't able to produce enough supplies to feed all his armies, planes and bases... He had all his HI bases in yellow or red...

How can it be? Did someone investigated seriously?

Thanks

GJ



How this can be? You have given the answer already. He conquered halve of the map (that' quite some fighting) and he created an aircraft industry that probably sucked up more than a year's supply production.

If you don't go crazy there is more than enough supply and HI for the Japanese, I don't want to sound too harsh but going wild on the map and with his industry he bankrupted himself in terms of supplies. When I played Rainer79 he said he had more than one million HI stored in late 44, scenario 2 with the same need of HI for the pilot training programme. It's not the game, it's the player and what he does.


But he didn't go "that crazy" i think... look at what Rader did in terms of A/C industry and he didn't have those problems (as far as i know).

PzB reported that despite shutting down half of his naval, merchant, aircraft, armaments and vehicles industries he still was struggling to remain supplies.
Now supplies should't be eaten by industry, right? So what was going on there?

I would understand a lack of fuel, even a lack of resources...but not a lack of supplies. Is it possible that Japanese LCU armies become so big (with all those new arrivals in 1943-44) that the japanese industry simply doesn't produce enough supplies for them?




janh -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 9:20:08 AM)

PzB brought up the pilot training issue as well. Maybe it was him, maybe someone else who thus decided that wasting some poorer pilots in obsolete airframes at least brought a little relieve to the HI situation, and attrited the allies a bit as well (but trained them).

As far as I remember that long AAR, most of his industry expansions were reasonable. No exaggerated increase in vehicle or airframe production, more like typical for the many AARs. He did a lot of base expansions, but not sure whether he overdid that with expanding every tiny base in the PI or so. He's very experienced, so he surely also did that with good measure.

He also didn't actually occupy that much more terrain than historical, and getting the Line Islands fortified or its fields/ports (over-)expanded costs some, but not so much to lead to supply shortages. Given industry repairs and base expansion will be somewhat proportional to territory gained, I bet John 3rd will experience something like that in the late game as well.

PzB thought it was mainly due to the huge amounts of supply consumed in fighting in Burma which continued almost unpaused through the monsoon, and he mentioned several times that he could hardly keep up shipping supply to that theater. Another reason he suspected was that in Scenario 2 the forces are expanded so much, that with untouched industry capabilities that over-strains Japanese resources in the long run.




janh -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 9:22:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I would understand a lack of fuel, even a lack of resources...but not a lack of supplies. Is it possible that Japanese LCU armies become so big (with all those new arrivals in 1943-44) that the japanese industry simply doesn't produce enough supplies for them?


If PzB still has tracker files of his game, this could be tracked down. It sounds like the most probable conclusion, together with the extensive manner in which these numerous LCU were employed in Burma.




1275psi -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 9:43:39 AM)

I for one would add to the use of CV and BBs.
having nearly all of them entering 44 in my game is really, really straining fuel reserves (scene 1 game)
You just cannot run around everywhere for too long.............




castor troy -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 10:26:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I've gone back reading the latest 20 pages of PzB's AAR against AndyMac...

Did somebody ever studied the reasons behind PzB's late war supply issues?

As you probably well know, one of the main problems PzB encountered in 1944 was the fact that, despite the empire had conquered half of known world and was pratically unbeaten, his economy wasn't able to produce enough supplies to feed all his armies, planes and bases... He had all his HI bases in yellow or red...

How can it be? Did someone investigated seriously?

Thanks

GJ



How this can be? You have given the answer already. He conquered halve of the map (that' quite some fighting) and he created an aircraft industry that probably sucked up more than a year's supply production.

If you don't go crazy there is more than enough supply and HI for the Japanese, I don't want to sound too harsh but going wild on the map and with his industry he bankrupted himself in terms of supplies. When I played Rainer79 he said he had more than one million HI stored in late 44, scenario 2 with the same need of HI for the pilot training programme. It's not the game, it's the player and what he does.



PzB reported that despite shutting down half of his naval, merchant, aircraft, armaments and vehicles industries he still was struggling to remain supplies.
Now supplies should't be eaten by industry, right? So what was going on there?





none of this has saved any supplies, just HI.




Gräfin Zeppelin -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 3:13:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy



none of this has saved any supplies, just HI.


Very true.

If I remember right PzB also played with withdrawals off. This brings alot of extra squadrons into the game which happily eat supplies too.




Cannonfodder -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 5:26:46 PM)

I don't think you should worry to much. If your supplies are going down, look at whats eating them. Repairing industry? Flying sorties? Combat? Expanding ports and airfields, building forts?

Reduce the amount of sorties your flying, reduce repairs, reduce expansion , limit port building and fort building and you should be able to balance it all out...




GreyJoy -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 5:29:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

I don't think you should worry to much. If your supplies are going down, look at whats eating them. Repairing industry? Flying sorties? Combat? Expanding ports and airfields, building forts?

Reduce the amount of sorties your flying, reduce repairs, reduce expansion , limit port building and fort building and you should be able to balance it all out...



I wasn't worried for the actual game-time... but for the future... PzB is surely a very experienced player and the fact that he couldn't identify the cause of those supply-related-problems does worry me.





aztez -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/9/2012 5:36:54 PM)

I have two ongoing PBEM.. one in early 1945's (katsuragi) and one in late 1945's (erstad).

Both of them are putting up very solid resistance even at this late stage of war. Also both are very experienced japanese players as well.

Neither of them have hinted any supply problems and not seeing that at all. The game vs erstad is scenario 1 game and other vs katsuragi is scenario 2 game.

Having said that I think PzB did something to cause that problem. Not familiar with economy but that is pretty safe to say.

Also, I think castor troy might be spot on.. having followed his postings for years.. well he knows what he is talking about! [:)]

You really should not worry.. just focus on the obvious and don't expand everything.




inqistor -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/10/2012 11:15:41 PM)

Air loses in PzB game was pretty low (also, general number of battles was pretty low, because Allies were short on assets). Plus, they generally played Quiet China variant, so unless big part of Japanese production comes from captured Chinese industry, there is a problem.

Also - new map with stacking limit increases supply usage for attacker, so with new map, also supply production for Japan should be slightly increased, for them to reach similar results, as with normal map.




Miller -> RE: PzB's discoveries... (10/10/2012 11:25:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: aztez

I have two ongoing PBEM.. one in early 1945's (katsuragi) and one in late 1945's (erstad).

Both of them are putting up very solid resistance even at this late stage of war. Also both are very experienced japanese players as well.

Neither of them have hinted any supply problems and not seeing that at all. The game vs erstad is scenario 1 game and other vs katsuragi is scenario 2 game.

Having said that I think PzB did something to cause that problem. Not familiar with economy but that is pretty safe to say.

Also, I think castor troy might be spot on.. having followed his postings for years.. well he knows what he is talking about! [:)]

You really should not worry.. just focus on the obvious and don't expand everything.


I agree with this. My game is at Jan 45 and I have little or no problems with supply or HI. I think in PzB's game he has either totally over expanded his industry or has simply totally outplayed the Allies and got bored with the lack of action (he hints at this in his AAR).




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