Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (9/30/2012 11:02:00 PM)
Overview: An interesting beginning to the war in some ways. Again, a surprise ON, non-historical start. Overall I thought the air war was more intense than in an AI game, the LCU landing roster was a snoozer (which worries me), and the PH effort was medium bad. (I have since looked into the next turn file and PH was really very light, unless he attacks twice.)
Big losses: USS Maryland, USS Boise.
Big gains: CL Sendai to Dutch sub and three fish at Kota Bharu; sunk ship sound effect heard.
Midget Sub attack inside harbor of Pearl Harbor!!!
BB West Virginia, Torpedo hits 1
Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 108 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 46 minutes
A6M2 Zero x 68
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 109
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 9 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 2 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak
Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 174 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 9 destroyed on ground
B-18A Bolo: 34 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 5 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 54 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 50 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 7 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 16 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
A-20A Havoc: 33 damaged
A-20A Havoc: 3 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 8 damaged
O-47A: 3 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 44 damaged
SBD-1 Dauntless: 4 destroyed on ground
C-33: 2 damaged
C-33: 1 destroyed on ground
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 damaged
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed on ground
P-36A Mohawk: 39 damaged
P-36A Mohawk: 2 destroyed on ground
R3D-2: 3 damaged
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
AV Wright, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB California, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
PT-24, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 2, on fire
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB Arizona, Torpedo hits 3
CA New Orleans, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
DD Ralph Talbot, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Worden, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
CL Detroit, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DMS Perry, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AVP Swan, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AV Curtiss, Torpedo hits 1
Allied ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Airbase hits 62
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 86
Port hits 13
Port fuel hits 2
1) Medals for the men of PT-24 who ate a torpedo and probably saved a battleship.
2) I didn't know I even had 174 Cats on Oahu!
3) A lot of damaged planes, a lot that will be fixed. Pretty low losses given what he invested in the airfields.
4) Animation detail showed air units from five fleet carriers (Akagi, Zui., Shok., Kaga, Soryu.) Next turn shows three large, undefined TFs which have remained near PH and moved slightly east. Where is the sixth carrier? I'm afraid either escorting a Mersing gambit to come, or going deep somewhere else.
5) The intense focus on air power suggests strongly there will be a second day's attacks. If so I will have what defenses I can muster, but I do not plan to sortie surface forces in strength. I expect to lose perhaps three more BBs if there is a second day.
Strong air efforts against multiple targets resulting in the loss of three subs (two fleet, 1 S-boat), damage to several others at Manila, plus about 20 merchants sunk or aflame at HK, Manila, and Rangoon. HK took 8 points of damage to the repair yard. The merchants are a sting, but many were xAKLs which have less utility to the Allies since they can't be converted and can only service certain routes due to range. Loss of the subs hurts the most.
Sweeps in several places. In general I had CAP up, hampered by the Turn 1 surprise rules, but I broke wrong by servicing the second altitude band rather than going high and meeting the Zeros. My P-40 losses were stiff. But so were his Nell losses.
Playing with non-historical I expected an avalanche of amphibious operations. Instead there were light landings at Kota Bharu (TF of only one xAK with heavy escort, including the sunk CL), normal landings at Miri and Brunei, and a small effort at Legsapi. That's it. I see two large gaggles of TFs at the two Japanese bases north of Kota Bharu, but I don't know their composition. It's possible Mike decided to unload in safer waters and without disruption given he doesn't know how wild I would be with Force Z (which is headed to Shangri-La as I type this), but coming from the AI it's strange there was no Batan Island, no large PI forces spotted underway, no attempt at Davao. I simply don't know where many of the magic first turn TFs went. Nor do I know where his BBs are, or that other fleet carrier. Which worries me.
The mini-KB was sighted and dispatched Boise with 11 torps launched, five hits. The only bright side is that is a lot of its inventory. The Kates sortied on Boise with no escort; a bit cheeky if you ask me. Next game I will not leave her on her scenario course and only increase speed. I will send her to mess up Miri and then on to Singers or Palembang. RIP Robo-cruiser.
I began flailing about in China, but I will say here for the first, but not last, time that China flumoxes me. I have never had a grip on it. There was one stiff battle in China at Pengpu at 114:1 odds. Not good.
1) Given no HRs I expect a strong effort in China including a swift campaign to take supply centers in the north, and a concerted effort to cut the Burma Road ASAP. Mike asked pre-turn about para rules, so I expected drops in Burma, which did not happen, or I did not see them. It's possible he plans to sticker Singers and hold while some or all of the force I see unloading north of Kota B. goes north at a dead run for Rangoon. I plan to supply Rangoon as soon as possible, probably from Madras, but I don't know how long the Burma Road will be open.
2) The next 2-3 turns will give me a lot of data on where his main effort will go in December. I have a hunch it will not be the PI, and only minimally Malaysia. I expect him to take Miri and Brunei and then thrust for Palembang. I have ideas for Palembang, but if he wants it I may let him have it while I can still strat bomb a little from Singers.
3) I'm thinking he may try a "deep, then back" strategy of taking his perimeter and then backfiling standard phase one objectives. Scen 2 gives him a lot more time ot be in good petroleum shape. I don't plan to try to defend Balikpapan or Tarakan; they really are indefensible, while Palembang and Soerbaja can extract some blood. With all of the main Borneo POL he can suppliment HI fuel and last well into 1943 even if Palembang is unobtainable, or I succeed in wrecking it.
4) But where might he go deep? In past games he has discussed or toyed with Hawaii. I almost wish he would try there. I think I could deal better with Hawaii than, say, Oz. I feel more comfotable with naval sides of the game than land combat minutae.
5) I plan to try to have the self-discipline to:
a) see a VP is a VP is a VP. They're all equal whether lost from a ship, plane, or infantry unit. I'll try not to serve any up.
b) don't fight in the air just to fight in the air. If he wants to sweep at 10:1 odds, don't go up. Leave and fight another day.
c) don't risk ships unless there is a return ratio
d) hold engineers back in CONUS until all bases are maxed out on their VP multipliers. There's no sense having dozens of units squatting on Oahu until they're needed
e) defend Oz before I worry about PM or the southern tier. If he wants to play at Suva I'll let him. East from CT is my main logistic route.
f) to that, defend Perth. I have a sick feeling I may see several divisions landing there in those 3-4 days and there's little I can do about it in the short run.
I don't know if this report format works for me, but for the first turn I wanted to add more detail.
Thus begineth the war.