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Erik Rutins -> Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 6:18:01 PM)

Consider this one. In March of 1905, during the Morocco Crisis, Germany declares a surprise war on France (and only France). What would have happened and how would it have changed the history of the 20th Century?

Regards,

- Erik



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 6:25:13 PM)

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 6:33:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)
Warspite1

No I think the scenario is that the Germans only declare war on France - the question is then, does the UK come to the defence of France as per the Entente Cordiale, or does she say "you're on your own there sunshine"?



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 6:39:54 PM)

I think it's unlikely Britain would not have responded. Most of the world's powers were arranged against Wilhelm in this situation.

From a naval aspect, wouldn't Germany have been at even more of a disadvantage at this point than 1914?

Warspite?



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 6:41:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)
Warspite1

No I think the scenario is that the Germans only declare war on France - the question is then, does the UK come to the defence of France as per the Entente Cordiale, or does she say "you're on your own there sunshine"?
Warspite1

If its the latter, then regardless of what happens during the current Moroccan crisis, the French / British relations would suffer a major hit - or worse may make Germany believe an attack on France (and a repeat of 1870) was in order there and then. I do not know enough about the strength of each army in 1905 to know if this is something the Germans would have seriously considered, but the German navy was nowhere near strong enough in terms of its re-armament program.



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 6:47:57 PM)

It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:02:07 PM)

I don't know... I envision an earlier WW1 with a much weaker Kaiserliche Marine (at what stage would the U-Boot Programme be at?), and where was Germany at in terms of the Ottoman Empire at that time? Just the Austro-Hungarian Empire as a firm ally...

I think old Willy would have been crazy.



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:07:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."
Warspite1

I think - admittedly using actions in 1914 as a guide - the US would not get involved, Italy and Spain was of little importance, but Russia most certainly was. The Triple Entente only came into force in 1907. Would Russia have assisted France if the UK didn't (I don't know the exact terms of the Entente Cordiale - did it bind one nation to come to the aid of another if attacked?). Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?




Erik Rutins -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:08:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25
Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)


No, but Germany would only attack France in this scenario. What the British do in response is part of the question. How would the land war between Germany and France go if it started at this point? Who would realistically decide to and be able to intervene to possibly change the course of events?

Regards,

- Erik



Orm -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:10:32 PM)

Since there was no formal defence alliance between Britain and France 1905 I doubt that Britain would have assisted France. Germany was, after all, no threat to Brittain 1905.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entente_cordiale

Russia on the other hand is another story. I suspect they would have entered the war sided with France.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Russian_Alliance

Edit: Spelling.



Erik Rutins -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:11:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?


Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:13:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25
Are you saying absolutely no British intervention, hypothetically? (As unlikely as that would be, in my opinion.)


No, but Germany would only attack France in this scenario. What the British do in response is part of the question. How would the land war between Germany and France go if it started at this point? Who would realistically decide to and be able to intervene to possibly change the course of events?

Regards,

- Erik

Warspite1

Sounds like ideas for a game? [;)]



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:16:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

It would be a stretch, IMO, to think that Britain, Russia, the US, Spain and Italy would all say "Sorry, you're on your own."
Warspite1

I think - admittedly using actions in 1914 as a guide - the US would not get involved, Italy and Spain was of little importance, but Russia most certainly was. The Triple Entente only came into force in 1907. Would Russia have assisted France if the UK didn't (I don't know the exact terms of the Entente Cordiale - did it bind one nation to come to the aid of another if attacked?). Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?




I don't think it was binding from a British point of view.

Not sure of the French.



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:17:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?


Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik

Warspite1

The key to this is the relative state of the armies in 1905. Germany did not go to war over Morocco and so this may tell us something. We need an army expert!

However, given the events of 1870 and 1914, I think it is fair to assume that the German army on its own could defeat that of the French.

That being the case, and the British and Russians would have thought that too - what would they do and why? Really interesting scenario Erik.....



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:19:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Since there was no formal defence alliance between Britain and France 1905 I doubt that Britain would have assisted France. Gewrmany was, after all, no threat to Brittain 1905.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entente_cordiale

Russia on the other hand is another story. I suspect they would have entered the war sided with France.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Russian_Alliance




I don't know about that... didn't Jackie Fisher push for pre-emptive strikes against the German Navy more than once?





nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:30:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Indeed following its humiliation at the hands of the Japanese, would the Russians have any appetite for another war in 1905?


Yes, the different situation as far as alliances and the Russo-Japanese war is indeed part of the intended hypothetical scenario. Would we really have had a replay of WWI or would things have gone very differently?

Could Germany have defeated France in 1905 and if so, could anyone else have stopped that victory (and would they)? If Germany wins, how do subsequent events then unfold as far as the balance of power in Europe and the events that happened historically over the next 40 years?

Regards,

- Erik

Warspite1

The key to this is the relative state of the armies in 1905. Germany did not go to war over Morocco and so this may tell us something. We need an army expert!

However, given the events of 1870 and 1914, I think it is fair to assume that the German army on its own could defeat that of the French.

That being the case, and the British and Russians would have thought that too - what would they do and why? Really interesting scenario Erik.....


I doubt Nicky would have wanted to face a victorious German army on his front stoop after a German march into Paris, 1905 defeat or no.



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:33:45 PM)

Why didn't they intervene in 1870 then?



doomtrader -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:41:57 PM)

Another uprising in Poland supported by the France?

What would be the goal of such conflict? What would Germans want to achieve?


Also Wiki claims, that the Brits promised to help France in case of German aggression, so not really 1:1 in my opinion.
It might ends as WW1 but a little bit closer to Paris and without involving Belgium.



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:48:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Why didn't they intervene in 1870 then?


France had no treaty with Russia at this point. Bismarck was seeing to that.



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 7:57:23 PM)

It's all interesting, this scenario.

And with most of the ruling families of Germany, Russia, and Britain (and some smaller countries as well)all inter-related, it's not too much of a stretch they could have faced a lonely France.

Read about some of the correspondence b/t Nicky and Willy right before WW1. They were both waffling back and forth.



sulla05 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 8:12:22 PM)

The British would have joined the French for the same reason they did in WWI, the Germans would have invaded Belgium.

The Schlieffen plan was already set in 1905 which would have required the Germans to invade Belgium.

The Russians would have been a non-issue in 1905 because of Japan and the civil unrest that war brought.

The Germans not having to worry about the eastern front are allowed to have the " last man on the right brush his sleeve in the channel", would have triumphed.



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 8:31:28 PM)

Regardless of the 1905 defeat, and whether or not they would have backed France in this hypothetical war, the Russians would not have been a "non-issue".

The Romanovs were still firmly in power at this point, civil unrest or not. Nicholas' father, Alexander, had been dealing with this level of unrest since HIS coronation (it caused his death).

They still would have been a major consideration.



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 9:13:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

Regardless of the 1905 defeat, and whether or not they would have backed France in this hypothetical war, the Russians would not have been a "non-issue".

The Romanovs were still firmly in power at this point, civil unrest or not. Nicholas' father, Alexander, had been dealing with this level of unrest since HIS coronation (it caused his death).

They still would have been a major consideration.
Warspite1

Let's suppose for a second then that the UK decided to stand back. Russia was licking her wounds from Tsushima and did likewise. Germany attacks France and its 1870 all over again - only this time, the Germans decide to either occupy France, or more likely grab a ton of land, overseas possessions and make her pay reparations.

What do the UK and Russia do now? Britain's 200-300 year policy of not allowing anyone power hedgemony in Europe has just fallen flat on its face. So what happens now?



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 9:20:19 PM)

How would Germany counter a blockade by the RN, esp. in 1905? Don't you see that as a British response to a prolonged German stay in France? Let alone Germany trying to seize
colonial possessions she can't support from the sea.

Or am I wrong in your opinion?



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 9:25:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: nate25

How would Germany counter a blockade by the RN, esp. in 1905? Don't you see that as a British response to a prolonged German stay in France? Let alone Germany trying to seize
colonial possessions she can't support from the sea.

Or am I wrong in your opinion?
Warspite1

I am not sure how much of a problem a blockade would be. Germany would effectively own (or through Austria-Hungary) be friendly with Europe from Brest to Poland and down into the Balkans. We know what Turkey did in WWI too. So would Russia now be able to hold off an attack by Germany / Austria-Hungary with no second front in the west? Again WWI indicates not.

It's not a pretty picture is it?



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 9:33:15 PM)

It's fun to think about. [:)]

Turkey sort of played both sides before the war, I think trying to see who would give the most treasure up.

Could have turned out the British had looser pursestrings.



nate25 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/9/2012 9:48:15 PM)

Well, Erik, now that we've all given you several scenario ideas, when can we expect something out? [:'(]



nicwb -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/10/2012 9:36:30 AM)

Wouldn't the deciding feature be the German execution of the Schlieffen Plan ? As I recall they were very committed to it as a knock out blow against France. It essentially meant a movement through Belguim. I suspect the UK was very committed to Belgian neutrality and a balance of power in Europe, in which case the UK would have been in the fight very much as they were later.



warspite1 -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/10/2012 6:36:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

Wouldn't the deciding feature be the German execution of the Schlieffen Plan ? As I recall they were very committed to it as a knock out blow against France. It essentially meant a movement through Belguim. I suspect the UK was very committed to Belgian neutrality and a balance of power in Europe, in which case the UK would have been in the fight very much as they were later.
Warspite1

Not if what I was told some years ago is true (although I must admit I never did check the validity of the statement). Essentially I was told that there was no legally binding basis for Britain to come to the aid of Belgium in 1914 (indeed the British were not certain of coming into WWI until quite late in the day).

If this is true then Schlieffen plan or not - the British may stay out.



Erik Rutins -> RE: Hypothetical history... (4/10/2012 7:50:33 PM)

Even if the British did decide to intervene, would they be able to do so in a significant way if the Germans managed to achieve a reasonable level of strategic surprised before executing the Schlieffen Plan? Does anyone have a good sense of the balance of readily available continental land power between Germany, France and Britain in 1905?

Regards,

- Erik



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