Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (Full Version)

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Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 4:50:40 PM)

No Canoerebel in this thread please.






Higashi no kaze ame -east wind, rain.



This will be an AAR about my game against Canoerebel. I was very happy to recieve a reply from him to my opponents wanted thread. Ive been away from the game for about half a year due to personal reasons, but things have settled now, and I should have time for a game. I havent spoken that much with Canoe before, but Ive seen him around in the forums, Ive enjoyed his previous AARs, and he seems to be a really great guy, so Im looking forward to this game very much.

We have an interesting game coming. We have traded PDU-on and realistic R&D off against reliable USN torpedos on. That means the US subs will be a major threat from day 1. Should be interesting. I will not abuse the R&D-setting. Ive been toying with the idea that I can send a long-range sub on a "round the map"-trip (in other words, they are going to Germany), and when that sub returns to Tokyo, I will be allowed to start research of a third generation aircraft. Perhaps Im silly, but I like that idea. When/if we go to war against the USSR, I am allowed to research any aircraft I want. I havent told Canoe about this self-imposed HR of mine, but I like the idea and I think I will follow it.


I have looked over some of Canoes old AARs, and clearly he likes the northern front. So that will be a priority I suppose. He is also afraid of me going for auto-victory (which I wont) so I will try to play into those fears. Perhaps I can make him more cautious than he has to for the first year.. Other than that, he seems very capable and a truly challenging opponent.


Im working on the setup right now, but I would like to kick off the discussion here. Which of the winds are blowing? East, obviously, since it is hardly possible to play this game without a conflict with the US. But after that? India, Australia, US or the USSR?

I took a look at Russia, but that seems like a no-brainer. 8-9k AVs, lots and lots of artillery and aircraft, and for what? The possible gain of 100-something HI and 100-something refineries. God no.

India or Australia then...?

India seems more attractive, plenty of HI over there. It is also closer, at least it feels closer. On the other hand, Darwin is a "must-own" place. There are a few of those, and taking Australia would of cource force Canoe to fight there before he can go anywhere else. India is also interesting, there is a cluster of 4-5 hexes that would be enough to expand my industry for years. But to get to Australia or India, I would have to fight through an army and an airforce.

Actually Im looking at China. Its the obvious target, it has plenty of resources and industry, although I would have to wade through Chinese army units to get there. But the benefits are obvious. I get to fight close to home, I dont need to own very much of the oceans to get there and home, the Chinese army is crap, so is their airforce.

Ive been sitting looking at the map for a couple of hours now, and it seems like the best strategy.

So, my very rough strategic plan would be:

1) Take the oilfields in the NEI.
2) Secure the SLOCs between NEI and Japan.
3) Ensure a level of industrial output that will allow us to produce enough combat units to carry the war beyond 1945

On the operational level these three broad strategic objectives would of cource be broken down into several sub-objectives. I'll get back to that later. These three strategic objectives can also be described as the three phases of this war. Expansion, consolidation and defence. I will want to achieve objectives 1&2 as soon as possible, as that will give me better chances to achieve 3.


And, just for the fun of it... I will try to do some sort of dramatic storyline in this AAR, bear with me gentlemen.




obvert -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 5:06:13 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Actually Im looking at China. Its the obvious target, it has plenty of resources and industry, although I would have to wade through Chinese army units to get there. But the benefits are obvious. I get to fight close to home, I dont need to own very much of the oceans to get there and home, the Chinese army is crap, so is their airforce.

Ive been sitting looking at the map for a couple of hours now, and it seems like the best strategy.

So, my very rough strategic plan would be:

1) Take the oilfields in the NEI.
2) Secure the SLOCs between NEI and Japan.
3) Ensure a level of industrial output that will allow us to produce enough combat units to carry the war beyond 1945



This is exactly what I thought immediately after reading CRs intro in his AAR with the house rules. I agree, (but of course I agree even in Scen 1 with bad US torps, for the same reasons you mention). Getting Fusan working for resources immediately will be important.

Do you have an idea what line of advance you'd take in China to begin? Do you plan to destroy Chinese troops on the way or just push them around hoping to avoid respawning activities? Do you plan to acquire Kunming early to keep Chinese units bottled in China, or let them escape to the mountains?

Glad you're doing an AAR. I look forward to it and to the story-telling, however it may take shape.

PS - One more thing. How do you plan to use the realistic R n D off part of the deal? Seems like this would allow you a LOT of very good planes very early if I understand it correctly.





Historiker -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 5:47:56 PM)

West Coast or Russia!
I want to see a serious West Coast invasion, and taking out Russia seems like a neat thing, too [sm=happy0065.gif]




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 6:47:49 PM)

Invading the west coast seems like a no-brainer too. I mean...what is there to achieve, besides the bragging rights (although, they are enormous, granted)?




Historiker -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 6:57:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Invading the west coast seems like a no-brainer too. I mean...what is there to achieve, besides the bragging rights (although, they are enormous, granted)?

You'll turn into a legend. Players will tell their grandsons they were reading that AAR! [:D]




CRations -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 6:59:52 PM)

Wow - I was just thinking about your house rules. With an allied sub fleet that has teeth to it, what will you do about escorts for your task forces?

I'm trying to wrap my brain around Japan's economy. It looks like you have enough in reserve for a few months... But why go after Australia? Why go past Java?

China will be interesting fro me to watch. I was thinking for Japan China would suck the life out of Japan's ground forces with all of the garrison requirements. Will you take Burma at the same time as China to cut the Burma-China supply line?

Is there a route by land where you can pull supply/resources from India through China to a base close to Japan - say Shanghai or something like that?

Just curious. I've read some of the posts from Canoerebel and I see you joined in 2000 so I'm guessing this will be a game played out by two very strong players and should be fun to follow.

CR




jeffk3510 -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 7:25:40 PM)

With reliable Allied Torps off...are you going to do a port attack on Manila instead of Pearl?




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 7:42:52 PM)

No, I will not port-strike Manila. The first port-strike goes to Pearl.

Yes, I would probably like it better to remove those 30-something submarines at Manila, but

1) It would not really be a day that will live in infamy, now would it?

2) Yes, those BBs at Pearl are old and slow, but they are still BBs with big guns and thick armor. Im not really too keen on having 8 more of those around.

3) There are alot of other targets at Pearl, modern CLs being the most attractive targets, closely followed by CAs and B17s.

4) Since I think the northern front will be a factor in this game, the CVs will actually not be horribly out of position on day 1. Besides, taking the NEI doesnt really require the help of the KB, at least not the way I do it.

5) Without the KB around Hawaii on turn 1, the US CVs can roam free in the central pacific, as can any and all troop transporting convoys that would positively litter the place. Having the KB in the central pacific on day 1 keeps the US honest for the first few days.




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 7:47:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CRations

Wow - I was just thinking about your house rules. With an allied sub fleet that has teeth to it, what will you do about escorts for your task forces?

I'm trying to wrap my brain around Japan's economy. It looks like you have enough in reserve for a few months... But why go after Australia? Why go past Java?

China will be interesting fro me to watch. I was thinking for Japan China would suck the life out of Japan's ground forces with all of the garrison requirements. Will you take Burma at the same time as China to cut the Burma-China supply line?

Is there a route by land where you can pull supply/resources from India through China to a base close to Japan - say Shanghai or something like that?

Just curious. I've read some of the posts from Canoerebel and I see you joined in 2000 so I'm guessing this will be a game played out by two very strong players and should be fun to follow.

CR


Burma will actually be a priority. I do not want to see any supplies shipped to Rangoon and brought to China overland before I can take the port. Ive got plans, but they are not final yet, and it depends on a number of variables, like where Force Z goes on day 1 etc. Burma, or at least Rangoon is a top priority. It also gives the impression that I will go balls-through-the-walls for India, so that is also a benefit.

Im going to do the normal convoy escorts, but I will focus more on bombers on ASW-duty along the shipping lines. I will start building up a chain of airbases to cover the approaches to Japan.

If I take India, I will have lots of industry actually in India that will take resources and fuel, other than that, Diamond Harbor - Singapore - Shanghai - Shimonoseki is a favourite of mine.




witpqs -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 7:55:40 PM)

I'm opting out of CR's AAR from this point forward so I can comment here (although his AAR has a really cool name!).

I've been on the receiving end of non-PH port strikes four times in my games against forum member vicberg. The first three times were Manila, and the sub losses were massive. I'm cool with multiple port strikes as long as they comport with plausible reality, and the sunrise times on that date mean that Manila plus Singapore are fine with me. So, the most recent start we did saw KB hit Singapore and LBA hit Manila. Singapore was a good hit, but really the combo was less damaging overall than just Manila. No subs were killed by the LBA strike, and at Singapore the shipping losses just weren't that meaningful in the big scheme of things.

Overall, I think a Pearl Harbor port strike is best. This is based on me experiencing the non-PH strikes four times now, so is't pretty clear in my mind. The air group damage at Pearl Harbor is meaningful. While the fighters and all help, smashing a large number of PBYs is significant at that point in the game and will take months to make up. Combine this with KB being present and at least potentially active in the the Central and Southern Pacific and the impact on USN search is a force multiplier for the IJN.

I know you already stated it would be a Pearl Harbor strike but I thought I would offer my experience as support for that decision.




crsutton -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 8:13:33 PM)

Won't say much here since I know CR too well and am an AFB. So I will be more active on his AAR but I will be reading this one and wish you goo hunting. Two good opponents will make for a great match. I told him that I like the Allied sub bonus as a counter to Japanese production boosts in scen #2. However, I don't think it will make that much difference as there is a limit to the number of Allied subs in 42 and effective counter measures will limit the damage to your merchant fleet. You might lose a few more major warships though and that is a good balance thing for the Allies.

However, it is my own experience that once the super E class escorts come into play in early 44, the Allied sub war pretty much comes to an end so he will not have a super advantage over you.




jeffk3510 -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 8:28:03 PM)

What is the gentlemen's rule on hunting US CVs post day 1?

Makes sense on Pearl raid btw.. I still haven't agreed that the Manila strike is best, in any situation.





Captain Cruft -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 9:44:33 PM)

What will you do about Fortress Palembang? I can see no reason for him not to use it, regardless of anything else he does.

I was kind of hoping you would use DaBabes with the stacking limits map which would put the kibosh on what IMO is a very gamey gambit.




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 9:45:02 PM)

Super E class, yeah, I dont like those. Im not sure how I will use them to be honest. In my game against nemo the sub/asw-war was almost silly with several sub sinkings on both sides every day...clearly something is wrong with those ships.

Chasing CVs after day 1? Isnt that free-for-all?




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 9:52:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

What will you do about Fortress Palembang?

First I want to say that I dont think he will try that one, for the same reason I wont be doing the Mersing-gambit, despite its obvious advantages to all other Malaya strategies - its not really cricket.

But he will not have a chance to build one. I will be coming ashore at FP on D+7 at the latest with 200-something AV.




witpqs -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 9:53:41 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

Chasing CVs after day 1? Isnt that free-for-all?


IMO, yes. If the Allies don't move those ships sufficiently then bad on them.




Captain Cruft -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/9/2012 9:54:09 PM)

OK good. The reason I mentioned it is because it was the cornerstone of his game against ChezDaJez.




PaxMondo -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 2:40:16 AM)

Looking forward to this. 

For what it is worth, I think China followed by India is the strongest path.  Pushing the line back in India means you can keep Burma oil going for sometime, not to mention the great HI in India.  If you can knock China out of the game you have +8000 AV freed up.  A lot of these are indpnt Bde's, which are great for all the near HI islands that need a good garrison.

I don't think against CR you could hope to take Karachi, but everything South of Delhi ... yeah, I think you would be able to do that.  Along with Darwin.  Yeah, mid-43 that is a really tough place for the Allies to have to start crawling back from.

[sm=00000436.gif]




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 4:06:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Looking forward to this. 

For what it is worth, I think China followed by India is the strongest path.  Pushing the line back in India means you can keep Burma oil going for sometime, not to mention the great HI in India.  If you can knock China out of the game you have +8000 AV freed up.  A lot of these are indpnt Bde's, which are great for all the near HI islands that need a good garrison.

I don't think against CR you could hope to take Karachi, but everything South of Delhi ... yeah, I think you would be able to do that.  Along with Darwin.  Yeah, mid-43 that is a really tough place for the Allies to have to start crawling back from.



You have high thoughts of me. China is no walk in the park against a competent opponent, far far from it. Especially if he manages to get supplies through in the opening stages of the war. Im going to focus on shutting down Rangoon as soon as possible, and I mean fast.

Ill will give more focus on China in this game than I ever have before, but its far from certain that I will reach the interior industrial base.




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 4:27:17 PM)

So, the setup is done and mailed to my esteemed opponent. The war is on.




Historiker -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 4:42:37 PM)

I am deeply offended that you didn't follow my suggestion and invade the West Coast! [:-]

[:D]




Cribtop -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 5:11:12 PM)

This is a phenomenal matchup, and the settings tradeoffs will no doubt provide some surprises.

I think I can learn a lot by reading both AARs, so I plan to do that and limit my comments to the occasional "atta boy" to avoid OpSec breaches.

Two comments before the game starts, however. First, I concur with the focus on China. Dan is a very competent China player, so as you say it won't be a cakewalk, but China is probably the most valuable theater for Japan. Second, good luck and BANZAI!




SqzMyLemon -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 5:56:51 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

For what it is worth, I think China followed by India is the strongest path.  Pushing the line back in India means you can keep Burma oil going for sometime, not to mention the great HI in India.  If you can knock China out of the game you have +8000 AV freed up.  A lot of these are indpnt Bde's, which are great for all the near HI islands that need a good garrison.


I'm playing a Scenario 2 game as the Allies against a very aggressive Japanese player. My first time as the Allies and I'm getting routed in China. I'm pretty confident on my land warfare skills, but I can't do anything because of the effects of the bombing and now supply shortage. Airpower is key, if the Japanese commit the JAAF bomber forces of 3rd and 5th Air HQ's, together with the China restricted units, China is doomed. The disruption alone caused by bombing means 3x terrain is next to no benefit and once the supply crunch takes hold it's over. If you go for China, airpower and armour units will be the decisive factor.

Good luck, and I'm really looking forward to CR being tested in this one.




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 7:18:15 PM)

Yeah, Im going to start a runway-cratering campaign from day 1. It will make building fortifications harder and it will eat supply. I will do my utmost to make chinese supply a nightmare.




John 3rd -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 7:28:31 PM)

Think allowing those SS to have useful Torps is bad idea. The impact will be BAD.

That said, do not underestimate your opponent. Dan has proven to be gifted in changing his style with nearly every game he has played. I would not take previous games as markers and/or forecasts of future play. Ask Chez about that.

Good LUCK!




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 7:52:55 PM)


COURIER DELIVERY - NOT TO BE TRANSMITTED BY RADIO

FROM: Imperial Navy Headquarters

TO: CPT Watanabe, Commanding officer, IJN HEAVY CRUISER CHOKAI

--- --- ---

BACKGROUND: EAST WIND, RAIN

ORDERS: Debark SAMAH together with DESTROYER SAGIRI. Transit STRAITS OF MALACCA and take up position at RANGOON.

Prevent all shipping from entering RANGOON. Departing vessels are to be handled at own discretion. GERMAN and ITALIAN vessels are not to be attacked.

Do not cross 104 E before 00:00 DEC 7


END
-----

___________________________________




[img]http://ww2db.com/images/ship_chokai3.jpg[/img]
Chokai underway on December 5th 1941 as seen from Sagiri.




Capt. Harlock -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 8:58:26 PM)

quote:

Prevent all shipping from entering RANGOON. Departing vessels are to be handled at own disgression.


Interesting move -- but it's "discretion".




Panzerjaeger Hortlund -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/10/2012 9:01:20 PM)

Thanks, fixed




JohnDillworth -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/11/2012 2:00:45 AM)

quote:

First I want to say that I dont think he will try that one

Yes,He will. I think all AFB's would try it. I know it's well know, but it is great if it works




princep01 -> RE: Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel (4/11/2012 3:47:43 AM)

JohnDill....Nope, I have to agree with PH re Palembang. I don't think Canoerebel will try it this time. A speed bump? Well, yes, that is likely, but a full blown fortress? Nope, I'd bet you a Mogami class CA he will not do it this time.

Why? Because at heart, CR is really a fairly conservative player. The Palembang gambit is a big risk against a competent IJ player and he knows PH is that. He won't fortress it, But, he'll try to get units out of Singers and some will go to Palembang to delay.

PH, those reliable torps or goin gto be a game changer. I am really interested in how that turns out as I have NEVER read an AAR wherein reliable torps were allowed. You sir, are a gutsy individual.




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