1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (Full Version)

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bstarr -> 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (11/30/2011 7:22:15 PM)

It would be interesting to see how the war would develop into 1945-1946 if Japan had been stronger; that seems to be a common concept with many mods. My question is, once you reach 1945, how do you keep the Soviet Juggernaut from running amuck in Manchuria and China? Some extra jap ships and perhaps some well-placed CDs can conceivably slow down the Western Allies, but how on earth do you stop or even slow down Russia? Any mod ideas? “Story” ideas?

All I’ve done so far in my mod is given the japs a decent 75mm AT gun and improved their armor forces a little, not too much because I want to stay at least somewhat believable.

One “story” idea is to simply say that Germany was a tougher nut to crack as well and push the soviet entry date back several months, but I don’t think that can be done with the editor. Perhaps it could be done with a house rule, though.



Terminus -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (11/30/2011 10:02:31 PM)

Japan can't stop the Russians in 1945-46, unless you want to live completely in fantasy land. It can't be done.



herwin -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (11/30/2011 10:28:33 PM)

Read the Glantz books or his Russian-language sources. In 1945, the USSR used Manchuria to refine its 1944 doctrine in detail. Japan had not a chance.



House Stark -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (11/30/2011 11:11:25 PM)

Yep, this would require an alternate history scenario. Japan would need more men and better land equipment and organization for a start. Which would probably require a significantly larger industrial base and possibly a decently larger population.



bstarr -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/1/2011 3:19:28 AM)

. . . damn . . . I just knew that's what y'all were going to say. I hoped against hope that there would be a magical answer, but no.



Commander Stormwolf -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/3/2011 8:18:42 PM)

IJA needs to take out the USSR in summer 1942, or summer 1943 in conjunction with wehrmacht.

it's the only *stage 2* operation that historically had any chance to affect the outcome of the war
(taking india or australia would have been pretty useless with millions of soviet troops in your backyard)

Japan also needs to concentrate all its armaments production on the 100mm 3.9" AA gun against those T-34..



bstarr -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/3/2011 9:36:58 PM)

Japan attacking USSR in any true historic context would've been suicide. But what if things were different in Europe? Say, perhaps Moscow had fallen and more Soviet eastern troops had been sent west. I don't want a "USSR falls scenario", if that happened the axis probably would have won, but it would be interesting to see what happens if Russia is weakened drastically and attacked by Japan at the same time they attack the western allies. It would be nice if they were pushed back and the Russo-Japanese Theater becomes closer kin to the war in China for some years. Perhaps I could weaken Russia to the point that a fall is inevitable but give very high garrison numbers so that the Japanese will still be stretched very thin; the further they reach the more trouble they will run into.



Commander Stormwolf -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/4/2011 12:54:38 AM)

japan attacks in april 1942 with 50 divisions and about 1000 light tanks: vladivostok and the outer regions would fall, force the soviets to pull troops away from the german front, defence of stalingrad now more difficult... soviet oil cut off...


but... japan didnt want to do that since having a border with germany was a bad idea [:D]



mike scholl 1 -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/4/2011 1:49:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: bstarr

Japan attacking USSR in any true historic context would've been suicide. But what if things were different in Europe? Say, perhaps Moscow had fallen and more Soviet eastern troops had been sent west. I don't want a "USSR falls scenario", if that happened the axis probably would have won, but it would be interesting to see what happens if Russia is weakened drastically and attacked by Japan at the same time they attack the western allies. It would be nice if they were pushed back and the Russo-Japanese Theater becomes closer kin to the war in China for some years. Perhaps I could weaken Russia to the point that a fall is inevitable but give very high garrison numbers so that the Japanese will still be stretched very thin; the further they reach the more trouble they will run into.



In truth, it tood an enourmous amount of "help" from Joe Stalin for the Soviets to do as poorly as they did..., so when it comes to "what if's" most of the logical ones would have helped the Soviets rather than the Germans.



mike scholl 1 -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/4/2011 1:51:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

japan attacks in april 1942 with 50 divisions and about 1000 light tanks: vladivostok and the outer regions would fall, force the soviets to pull troops away from the german front, defence of stalingrad now more difficult... soviet oil cut off...


"50 Divisions?" Where are they going to get them? By totally abandoning China?



Commander Stormwolf -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/4/2011 6:59:21 PM)

Well.. with the troops allocated to the So-Pac region. (as long as DEI can be secured by March 1942),
then take kwantung army with maybe 1/2 or 3/4 the troops from china
(i would probably use the chinese conscripts as well, and the thai army if possible, for some cannon fodder)

it would have some implications

1) the loss of the eastern regions means a reduction in soviet resources and manpower
2) forces soviets to keep significant amounts of troops along the siberia border
3) reduces the forces available against germany
4) cutting off a major lend-lease route

probably the soviets would be able to stop such an attack by

1) putting all their reserves and armor from moscow region to stop the attack
2) allow USAAF to use the bases in siberia/vladivostok region

but this take pressure off germany,

historically the allies were smart to concentrate on one opponent at a time (germany)
the lack of co-ordination was factor in the quick collapse of the axis powers





mike scholl 1 -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/4/2011 10:06:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

Well.. with the troops allocated to the So-Pac region. (as long as DEI can be secured by March 1942),
then take kwantung army with maybe 1/2 or 3/4 the troops from china

ALL of the troops from the DEI, and 3/4ths of the troops from China? Congradulations..., you've just given away EVERYTHING you went to war for. Did you think this through?

it would have some implications

1) the loss of the eastern regions means a reduction in soviet resources and manpower
2) forces soviets to keep significant amounts of troops along the siberia border
3) reduces the forces available against germany
4) cutting off a major lend-lease route

NONE of which does the Japanese any good at all. I don't think the Emperor and his Generals went to war to help Hitler.

probably the soviets would be able to stop such an attack by

1) putting all their reserves and armor from moscow region to stop the attack
2) allow USAAF to use the bases in siberia/vladivostok region

but this take pressure off germany,

historically the allies were smart to concentrate on one opponent at a time (germany)
the lack of co-ordination was factor in the quick collapse of the axis powers







Commander Stormwolf -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/5/2011 3:00:43 AM)

1) The offensive is done by the middle of 1942 (summer) and the DEI can be defended with naval and airpower, china can be held with about 1/2 the force since KMT or communists have little capacity to mount an offensive without military supplies

2) Well it means when russia is done with germany, it cannot just walk into japanese territory in 1945,
and yes, axis could not co-ordinate (while they still held the initiative in 1941/1942 thats a major reason why they lost)


it may or may not have worked, but it probably would have been more effective than what they did historically,
or the campaigns against india / australia


basically the axis had to overrun soviet territory by 1943 and then fortify against a western invasion
(and hope the atomic weapon was never developed)


I am convinced that german's campaigns were quite disorganized, often confusing and fixating on too many objectives

in war there are military objectives (destruction of army)
political objectives (morale or coercion to allow a useful peace settlement)
economic objectives (depletion of industrial capacity)

German 1941 campaign: starts as a military objective to destroy the red army. basically it is successful, then
the tank divisions are told to secure ukraine (economic objective), okay.. now they are told to attack moscow

the best thing to have done in 1941 was to destroy the red army (done) and then pull back into warm territory and avoid fighting in the winter

then in 1942, attack in concert with japan, while japan goes for vladivostok region and ties down the remainder of the red army,
germany takes the caucasus oilfields (economic), fortify the cauacsus and crimea. because japan is keeping the russians busy,
operation uranus (stalingrad encirclement) is impossible

in 1943, some type of battle needs to be fought to wear down the russians into a collapse, hopefully by this time the german army
still has troops (and they havent frozen to death in the winters or encircled at stalingrad)



i am impressed by the eastern campaign fought by germany in world war 1.
many defeats are imposed on russia and eventually a political victory is achieved when
the bolsheviks (german agents) are able to take power.

Now ..why is germany fighting the agents that saved them in world war 1?
That helped them rebuild their armed forced in sercretduring the versailles treaty?
Why does germany attack russia for "lebensraum" when russia is the coldest,
absolute worst place to live... yes germany should have just been happy to keep france
and maybe conquer greece (nice weather)



mike scholl 1 -> RE: 1945-1946 Russia, ideas? (12/5/2011 5:35:54 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

1) The offensive is done by the middle of 1942 (summer) and the DEI can be defended with naval and airpower, china can be held with about 1/2 the force since KMT or communists have little capacity to mount an offensive without military supplies




You seem to forget the need to garrison the DEI. That's 70,000,000 people who are sick and tired of ALL colonial rule. And how much logistical support do the Chinese need to walk back into friendly territory inhabited by other Chinese?



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